Betelgeuse is fainting.

Probably nothing serious but who knows?

Discuss celestial objects and phenomena outside the Earth's atmosphere, Earth-launched satellites and exploratory missions, etc....

Moderators: Calilasseia, ADParker

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#21  Postby Ironclad » Dec 31, 2019 11:29 am

I've read that this star is only 10 million years old. Is this correct!
For Van Youngman - see you amongst the stardust, old buddy

"If there was no such thing as science, you'd be right " - Sean Lock

"God ....an inventive destroyer" - Broks
User avatar
Ironclad
RS Donator
 
Name: Nudge-Nudge
Posts: 23886
Age: 51
Male

Country: Wink-Wink
Indonesia (id)
Print view this post

Ads by Google


Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#22  Postby newolder » Dec 31, 2019 12:04 pm

It's certainly a young star and consuming its fuel at a prodigious rate. The latest peer reviewed journal publication (Astronomy & Astrophysics, 2017) I've found so far is also at the arXiv under, "Evolutionary tracks for Betelgeuse" and gives an age of 8 to 8.5 million years but it will have taken further time to assemble.

We have constructed a series of non-rotating quasi-hydrostatic evolutionary models for the M2 Iab supergiant Betelgeuse (α Orionis). Our models are constrained by multiple observed values for the temperature, luminosity, surface composition and mass loss for this star, along with the parallax distance and high resolution imagery that determines its radius. We have then applied our best-fit models to analyze the observed variations in surface luminosity and the size of detected surface bright spots as the result of up-flowing convective material from regions of high temperature in the surface convective zone. We also attempt to explain the intermittently observed periodic variability in a simple radial linear adiabatic pulsation model. Based upon the best fit to all observed data, we suggest a best progenitor mass estimate of 20+5−3M⊙ and a current age from the start of the zero-age main sequence of 8.0−8.5 Myr based upon the observed ejected mass while on the giant branch.

arXiv link
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould
User avatar
newolder
THREAD STARTER
 
Name: Albert Ross
Posts: 7311
Age: 1
Male

Country: Feudal Estate number 9
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#23  Postby Ironclad » Dec 31, 2019 12:44 pm

Fascinating!
For Van Youngman - see you amongst the stardust, old buddy

"If there was no such thing as science, you'd be right " - Sean Lock

"God ....an inventive destroyer" - Broks
User avatar
Ironclad
RS Donator
 
Name: Nudge-Nudge
Posts: 23886
Age: 51
Male

Country: Wink-Wink
Indonesia (id)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#24  Postby newolder » Dec 31, 2019 12:48 pm

Fraser Cain (of universetoday.com) posted a 10-minute tube the other day:
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould
User avatar
newolder
THREAD STARTER
 
Name: Albert Ross
Posts: 7311
Age: 1
Male

Country: Feudal Estate number 9
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#25  Postby aufbahrung » Dec 31, 2019 3:18 pm

Say it'll be harmless. Experts on these rare things when one turns up in the backyard? Any idea what the electro-static shockwave or EMP, whatever you call it, of a nearby supernova that will outshine the moon might do to modern satellite electronics? Nothing normal in things outshining the moon.
ship struck the rocks yesterday, and the worst is yet to be....
User avatar
aufbahrung
 
Name: Your Real Name
Posts: 1412

Country: United Kingdom
United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#26  Postby Evolving » Dec 31, 2019 3:51 pm

I understand it’s likely to cause babies to be born unexpectedly in stables.
How extremely stupid not to have thought of that - T.H. Huxley
User avatar
Evolving
 
Name: Serafina Pekkala
Posts: 11993
Female

Country: Luxembourg
Luxembourg (lu)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#27  Postby newolder » Dec 31, 2019 3:54 pm

IK Pegasi B is the nearest known supernova progenitor candidate. It's part of a binary star system, located about 150 light-years away. Estimates show the Earth's ozone layer would be damaged from a supernova less than 50 light-years distant.

A recent find of iron-60 in up to 20 year old antarctic ice indicates a local supernova origin about 2 million years ago: https://physicsworld.com/a/antarctic-sn ... llar-iron/

Satellites are under more threat from activity on Sol when it reawakens from the current Solar minimum although I wouldn't want to be in direct line of sight along the gamma ray burst when the 100+ Solar mass eta Carinae decides to go off. :ill:
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould
User avatar
newolder
THREAD STARTER
 
Name: Albert Ross
Posts: 7311
Age: 1
Male

Country: Feudal Estate number 9
Print view this post

Ads by Google


Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#28  Postby Cito di Pense » Dec 31, 2019 4:04 pm

Evolving wrote:I understand it’s likely to cause babies to be born unexpectedly in stables.


Unexpectedly? You're not giving the prophets enough slack. With supernovas, babies should be born in unstables.
Хлопнут без некролога. -- Серге́й Па́влович Королёв

Translation by Elbert Hubbard: Do not take life too seriously. You're not going to get out of it alive.
User avatar
Cito di Pense
 
Name: Al Forno, LLD,LDL,PPM
Posts: 29550
Age: 23
Male

Country: The Heartland
Mongolia (mn)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#29  Postby Evolving » Dec 31, 2019 4:07 pm

Oh very good.
How extremely stupid not to have thought of that - T.H. Huxley
User avatar
Evolving
 
Name: Serafina Pekkala
Posts: 11993
Female

Country: Luxembourg
Luxembourg (lu)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#30  Postby BlackBart » Dec 31, 2019 4:36 pm

aufbahrung wrote:Say it'll be harmless.

It'll be harmless.

Experts on these rare things when one turns up in the backyard? Any idea what the electro-static shockwave or EMP, whatever you call it, of a nearby supernova that will outshine the moon might do to modern satellite electronics?

Nothing. A nova would need to be within 50 light-years to do any damage. None of the 133 stars in within that distance are anything close to going nova.

Betelguese is 650 light-years away.

Nothing normal in things outshining the moon.


Define normal.
You don't crucify people! Not on Good Friday! - Harold Shand
User avatar
BlackBart
 
Name: rotten bart
Posts: 12237
Age: 58
Male

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#31  Postby aufbahrung » Dec 31, 2019 6:06 pm

BlackBart wrote:
aufbahrung wrote:Say it'll be harmless.

It'll be harmless.

Experts on these rare things when one turns up in the backyard? Any idea what the electro-static shockwave or EMP, whatever you call it, of a nearby supernova that will outshine the moon might do to modern satellite electronics?

Nothing. A nova would need to be within 50 light-years to do any damage. None of the 133 stars in within that distance are anything close to going nova.

Betelguese is 650 light-years away.

Nothing normal in things outshining the moon.


Define normal.


Rhetoric and hyperbole, it's a supernova gotta give some slack...nope? :popcorn:
ship struck the rocks yesterday, and the worst is yet to be....
User avatar
aufbahrung
 
Name: Your Real Name
Posts: 1412

Country: United Kingdom
United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#32  Postby BlackBart » Dec 31, 2019 7:17 pm

Meh. Indistinguishable from your usual waffle.
You don't crucify people! Not on Good Friday! - Harold Shand
User avatar
BlackBart
 
Name: rotten bart
Posts: 12237
Age: 58
Male

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#33  Postby newolder » Dec 31, 2019 7:30 pm

What slack are we supposed to give here? Which tight restriction are we supposed to relax? We know the neighbourhood stars and we calculate the closest supernova candidate is at a distance that will permit the attenuation of its explosion emissions to levels below "damaging" by a factor of 3 in distance or a factor 9 in intensity (and we've included the pencil beam of the nearest gamma ray burst candidate in the calculations).

So, nope.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould
User avatar
newolder
THREAD STARTER
 
Name: Albert Ross
Posts: 7311
Age: 1
Male

Country: Feudal Estate number 9
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#34  Postby Matt_B » Dec 31, 2019 8:52 pm

Yes, unless there are unknown unknowns of truly Rumsfeldian proportions in our modeling, which is certainly possible although that applies to pretty much everything, we'd appear to be pretty safe even in the worst case of all waggle room in current models.

My long bet on nearby supernovae still goes with Canis Velorum, by the way. I'm extremely unlikely to see it in my lifetime, but everything we know about it suggests that it's a larger and more rapidly evolving star than Betelgeuse.

Eta Carina may go even sooner, although it's not exactly a nearby star at 7500 light years and astronomers have been waiting for it to go boom for nearly 200 years now. Still, what more evidence do you need that astronomically short timescales can still be pretty long in human terms?
User avatar
Matt_B
 
Posts: 4677
Male

Country: Australia
Australia (au)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#35  Postby aufbahrung » Jan 01, 2020 5:58 am

Is the solar systems edge robust enough not to reverse or do something weird when a supernova goes off? I'm not a expert, noticed no one seems to have factored it in that's all. It's not necessary for the supernova to be close if the stars outer bubble is fragile with a built up polarity issue over hundreds of years since the previous supernova?

https://nerdist.com/article/89000f-wall ... ar-system/
ship struck the rocks yesterday, and the worst is yet to be....
User avatar
aufbahrung
 
Name: Your Real Name
Posts: 1412

Country: United Kingdom
United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Ads by Google


Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#36  Postby BlackBart » Jan 01, 2020 6:32 am

aufbahrung wrote:Is the solar systems edge robust enough not to reverse or do something weird when a supernova goes off? I'm not a expert, noticed no one seems to have factored it in that's all. It's not necessary for the supernova to be close if the stars outer bubble is fragile with a built up polarity issue over hundreds of years since the previous supernova?

https://nerdist.com/article/89000f-wall ... ar-system/


The 'previous' supernova, if you mean the crab nebula, is over 6000 light-years and other than a pretty light show didn't affect our solar system either.
You don't crucify people! Not on Good Friday! - Harold Shand
User avatar
BlackBart
 
Name: rotten bart
Posts: 12237
Age: 58
Male

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#37  Postby aufbahrung » Jan 01, 2020 8:29 am

BlackBart wrote:
aufbahrung wrote:Is the solar systems edge robust enough not to reverse or do something weird when a supernova goes off? I'm not a expert, noticed no one seems to have factored it in that's all. It's not necessary for the supernova to be close if the stars outer bubble is fragile with a built up polarity issue over hundreds of years since the previous supernova?

https://nerdist.com/article/89000f-wall ... ar-system/


The 'previous' supernova, if you mean the crab nebula, is over 6000 light-years and other than a pretty light show didn't affect our solar system either.


No electronics to be fried way back then. But if you look at a old tube you see how these particles and energies and things operate quite well in order to produce a amplification effect.
ship struck the rocks yesterday, and the worst is yet to be....
User avatar
aufbahrung
 
Name: Your Real Name
Posts: 1412

Country: United Kingdom
United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#38  Postby BlackBart » Jan 01, 2020 8:52 am

:picard:
You don't crucify people! Not on Good Friday! - Harold Shand
User avatar
BlackBart
 
Name: rotten bart
Posts: 12237
Age: 58
Male

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#39  Postby newolder » Jan 01, 2020 9:56 am

aufbahrung wrote:Is the solar systems edge robust enough not to reverse or do something weird when a supernova goes off? I'm not a expert, noticed no one seems to have factored it in that's all. It's not necessary for the supernova to be close if the stars outer bubble is fragile with a built up polarity issue over hundreds of years since the previous supernova?

https://nerdist.com/article/89000f-wall ... ar-system/


If you mean SN1604 by "the previous supernova" and observed by Kepler, then that was at 20 thousand light-years distance and had zero effect hereabouts apart from the appearance of a new star for a while.


Or perhaps you meant SN1987A ? At a distance of over 160 thousand light years and in another galaxy? Yeah, that really screwed with our local bubble too. :roll: :nono:
Last edited by newolder on Jan 01, 2020 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould
User avatar
newolder
THREAD STARTER
 
Name: Albert Ross
Posts: 7311
Age: 1
Male

Country: Feudal Estate number 9
Print view this post

Re: Betelgeuse is fainting.

#40  Postby aufbahrung » Jan 01, 2020 10:06 am

I know there's the inverse square law and radiation falls off quickly. The stars surrounding a supernova ain't gonna be that effected by the intervening vacuum. I'm not talking end of the world, only frying the electronics of crap TV station satellites etc. Think it might be interesting to review what I said after the supernova appears, if that is possible. You can then continue to scoff or stand back in stunned silence that I got something right.
ship struck the rocks yesterday, and the worst is yet to be....
User avatar
aufbahrung
 
Name: Your Real Name
Posts: 1412

Country: United Kingdom
United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

PreviousNext

Return to Astronomy & Space Science

Who is online

Users viewing this topic: No registered users and 1 guest