Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#81  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Sep 09, 2016 6:37 pm

tuco wrote:What? :) Who is talking about overpopulation? We are talking about ageing population. Go back to sleep bro.

I refer you to the thread title. "Bro." This whole thread is about overpopulation- unless you're admitting that your purpose here is to derail the thread.

Either way, your proposed "solution" is no less irresponsible as a means of dealing with either problem.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#82  Postby tuco » Sep 09, 2016 6:40 pm

Oh please .. unless you're admitting that your purpose here is to derail the thread ..are you for real? lol The only one derailing is you with non-contribution as usual.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#83  Postby Thommo » Sep 09, 2016 7:33 pm

There certainly are other ways of solving the problem of ageing demographics. All you need to do is balance the income from a non-growing population over their working lives with the expenditure on a steady-state retired population. I.e. either you raise more for social security during working lives (e.g. later retirement age, higher social security taxes on employers and employees) or you cut expenditure on the elderly.

What you can't do is carry on spending at a rate that relies on population growth forever. If you compensate for having too many retired by having more people of working age, then when those people retire you have to make a bigger compensation for the new group of retired, which means yet more people of working age, ad infinitum.

It's called a pyramid scheme.

But this is one of the smallest problems associated with overpopulation. You're going to have a sharper version of the same thing if you ever try to reduce human population back to the alleged carrying capacity of a couple of billion, even if you make those cuts over several centuries of below-replacement rate family sizes. If you don't do that, you'd better damn well hope that someone produces a good method to find new metal reserves, energy reserves and carbon sinks.

I was not greatly uplifted by the Hans Rosling video, for which the takeaway appeared to be that the problem of overpopulation is only going to get 50% worse in terms of demand, and never addressed diminishing resources. That said he's a good speaker and his optimism is quite enjoyable.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#84  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Sep 09, 2016 8:46 pm

tuco wrote:Oh please .. unless you're admitting that your purpose here is to derail the thread ..are you for real? lol The only one derailing is you with non-contribution as usual.

Talking about carrying on as usual being an idiot move is precisely on topic, tuco. We are dealing with population issues right now, as well as with climate change, pollution issues, a crumbling infrastructure, and any number of stupidly preventable problems because people were comfortable letting their children inherit their unresolved issues. More of the same is pathetic, and if we were to go extinct from continuing a tradition which only makes things worse, I say we would deserve it.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#85  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 1:30 am

Thommo wrote:
Bernoulli wrote:If so, then I have no idea what you are talking about. I don't know why you introduced "young people" (unless someone else brought it up and I missed it). I've been talking about skilled immigration.


Yes, people of working age, i.e. young, that's what I referred to. You cannot solve the problem of ageing demography that way. All you can do is postpone it. Because those people are also ageing, they will eventually retire and have the same entitlements.

To fix the problem of ageing demographics you need to reach the point where demographics are no longer ageing, or have eternal exponential population growth. To "balance the books" you need contributions to social security to be set at a level such that a non-growing working population which is becoming a retired population at the replacement rate are contributing enough to fund the full retirements of all those retiring.

If any part of the solution to the problem is to have additional workers (whether born or immigrated) in order to fund retirement, that results in exponential growth because it's a pyramid scheme - the payout per individual exceeds the contribution per individual (after adjustment for inflation and growth).

Having productivity increase indefinitely is a different solution, because productivity per worker is a different variable than number of workers.


FFS, you didn't even read what I said. For the second time, I addressed the exponential growth thing. What's going on here? To explain it again, you don't need exponential working population growth. You just need continuing productivity per worker increases. And as the demographic bubble reduces due to this, then you need less and less productivity growth in the future. If this is going to lead to another 30 pages of idiocy, I'm not interested. If you can't understand what I'm talking about now, you are not going to get in in another 30 pages.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#86  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 1:32 am

tuco wrote:Well, there is no other solution.


I just presented at least three solutions.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#87  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 1:34 am

ScholasticSpastic wrote:
tuco wrote:What? :) Who is talking about overpopulation? We are talking about ageing population. Go back to sleep bro.

I refer you to the thread title. "Bro." This whole thread is about overpopulation- unless you're admitting that your purpose here is to derail the thread.


The discussion tuco was responding to was about the aging demographic.

Either way, your proposed "solution" is no less irresponsible as a means of dealing with either problem.


I agree with that.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#88  Postby Thommo » Sep 10, 2016 1:37 am

Bernoulli wrote:
Thommo wrote:
Bernoulli wrote:If so, then I have no idea what you are talking about. I don't know why you introduced "young people" (unless someone else brought it up and I missed it). I've been talking about skilled immigration.


Yes, people of working age, i.e. young, that's what I referred to. You cannot solve the problem of ageing demography that way. All you can do is postpone it. Because those people are also ageing, they will eventually retire and have the same entitlements.

To fix the problem of ageing demographics you need to reach the point where demographics are no longer ageing, or have eternal exponential population growth. To "balance the books" you need contributions to social security to be set at a level such that a non-growing working population which is becoming a retired population at the replacement rate are contributing enough to fund the full retirements of all those retiring.

If any part of the solution to the problem is to have additional workers (whether born or immigrated) in order to fund retirement, that results in exponential growth because it's a pyramid scheme - the payout per individual exceeds the contribution per individual (after adjustment for inflation and growth).

Having productivity increase indefinitely is a different solution, because productivity per worker is a different variable than number of workers.


FFS, you didn't even read what I said. For the second time, I addressed the exponential growth thing. What's going on here?


You seem to be misunderstanding what I wrote, repeatedly.

Bernoulli wrote:To explain it again, you don't need exponential working population growth. You just need continuing productivity per worker increases.


Right, this was never disputed. You disputed what I said, which was:
"Incidentally, the only way that the aging demographic problem could be "solved" through importing young people would be to have an eternal exponentially increasing population. It should be apparent why that's not going to work out."

What's going wrong here is that you're disagreeing with something else, because ever-increasing productivity per worker is a different thing to increasing the workforce by immigration of young people. Thus it is quite possible for productivity per worker increases to solve demographic ageing without conflicting with the thing you chose to dispute. I said that method A wouldn't work, you countered by calling it bullshit because method B could work, which is unfortunately, but perhaps understandably a non sequitur.

Hope that clears it up now. :thumbup:

Anyway, I think the more interesting point of discussion was that evidence for your claim:
Bernoulli wrote:Welfare has been paired back per capita in real terms for decades now in most of our countries.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#89  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 1:45 am

I have no idea what you are going on about, and I have no incentive to try and work it out. It's simple: Aging population bubbles are a threat to economies, just see Japan for example. By importing skilled workers (among other approaches) you maintain a situation where economic revenue growth outpaces spending (and specifically aged welfare spending, in this case). This quite simply doesn't require an "eternal exponentially increasing population" situation that you've dreamed up out of the nether regions of god knows where.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#90  Postby Thommo » Sep 10, 2016 1:46 am

If you don't understand what I'm saying, why do you keep contradicting me?

I agree that you don't seem to have any idea, but the correct thing to do, surely, then is not to simply assume that the thing you don't understand means some other thing you do.

Anyway, the evidence for your claim still seems the more interesting point of discussion:
Bernoulli wrote:Welfare has been paired back per capita in real terms for decades now in most of our countries.
Last edited by Thommo on Sep 10, 2016 1:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#91  Postby tuco » Sep 10, 2016 1:47 am

Bernoulli wrote:
tuco wrote:Well, there is no other solution.


I just presented at least three solutions.


At least 3? Well, I am with Thommo on this, who explained it plainly - eternal growth. Productivity can increase only through technologies, ie robots will do work and humans will reap benefits. However, nobody knows how the world will be 50 or 100 years from now in this regard. Hence, no country in the wold has solution to increasing cost of pensions with regards to budget to my knowledge. I will gladly read one and be corrected. Increasing retirement age is about the only measure anyone was able to come up with and this measure has its own difficulties, for example there is difference between 70 year old in the office and 70 old year miner or nurse.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#92  Postby laklak » Sep 10, 2016 2:00 am

None of it matters, we're fucking doomed no matter what we do. If the Ebola don't get us the climate change will. So turn up the A/C, go mudin' in your jacked up pick up truck, fuck as much as you can, squander whatever natural resources you can afford, because we're all in for a dirt nap soon. And the sooner the better, for most other species.
A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - Mark Twain
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! - Chicken Little
I never go without my dinner. No one ever does, except vegetarians and people like that - Oscar Wilde
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#93  Postby tuco » Sep 10, 2016 2:55 am

We've talked about it before laklak. People have kids as ScholasticSpastic pointed out . The selfish gene might be blind .. see what I did here :) .. but we do not need to be.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#94  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 3:38 am

Thommo wrote:If you don't understand what I'm saying, why do you keep contradicting me?

I agree that you don't seem to have any idea, but the correct thing to do, surely, then is not to simply assume that the thing you don't understand means some other thing you do.


If I don't understand what you are saying, and you just keep repeating it instead of clarifying it, the only option I have for continuing discussion is to make a guess at what you are talking about. If I guessed wrong, so be it. I'm not a mind reader. If you can't explain what you are going on about properly, then I'm not interested in spending 30 pages trying to work it out.

Anyway, the evidence for your claim still seems the more interesting point of discussion:
Bernoulli wrote:Welfare has been paired back per capita in real terms for decades now in most of our countries.


Thirty more pages of frankly fucking bizarre semantics? No thanks.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#95  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 3:44 am

tuco wrote:
Bernoulli wrote:
tuco wrote:Well, there is no other solution.


I just presented at least three solutions.


At least 3? Well, I am with Thommo on this, who explained it plainly - eternal growth. Productivity can increase only through technologies, ie robots will do work and humans will reap benefits.


He was ridiculously suggesting that my immigration solution would require some notion of "eternal exponentially increasing population" to address the population bubble. In your second sentence you are talking about what I am discussing - productivity growth. So I don't know how you are agreeing with Thommo. Be that as it may, automation and AI will be the biggest change in terms of productivity in the future. That should issue in a golden age where we are all granted more free time to pursue non work related activities without the stress of having to mostly work for our wage, but the conservative ethic inherent in neoliberalism may not allow for that to occur.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#96  Postby Thommo » Sep 10, 2016 3:47 am

Bernoulli wrote:
Thommo wrote:If you don't understand what I'm saying, why do you keep contradicting me?

I agree that you don't seem to have any idea, but the correct thing to do, surely, then is not to simply assume that the thing you don't understand means some other thing you do.


If I don't understand what you are saying, and you just keep repeating it instead of clarifying it, the only option I have for continuing discussion is to make a guess at what you are talking about. If I guessed wrong, so be it. I'm not a mind reader. If you can't explain what you are going on about properly, then I'm not interested in spending 30 pages trying to work it out.


I did explain, I clarified. You don't have to guess. If you want further clarification I am happy to provide it, but you're definitely not forced to guess. What the statement says is already clear, in particular you kept overlooking the part I underlined a couple of times.

Anyway, in a nutshell I was saying that the problem of an aging population cannot be solved by the method of increasing the working age population via immigration (or otherwise increasing the working age population). It can be cured in other ways though.

Bernoulli wrote:
Anyway, the evidence for your claim still seems the more interesting point of discussion:
Bernoulli wrote:Welfare has been paired back per capita in real terms for decades now in most of our countries.


Thirty more pages of frankly fucking bizarre semantics? No thanks.


Nothing bizarre about it, you misread something. We both agreed that you didn't understand what was written.

But this was a completely different claim. One that you made before I ever said a word and one for which you claimed evidence. Honestly, this looks like a thin excuse at this point, I'll just assume it was bullshit all along, that in fact you don't have any evidence, and consequently the evidence that has been produced in #68 defeats the claim. :thumbup:
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#97  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 3:51 am

"Thin excuse"? :lol: Bollocks. I've gone down the semantic rabbit hole enough times now with you to know it's a fruitless and infuriating experience. I'm not going to make that mistake again. If you want to assert that I was bullshitting when I was making that claim, go right ahead. I'm not particularly concerned.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#98  Postby tuco » Sep 10, 2016 3:52 am

The way you put it now, with both I guess. Its not possible to import workers forever and as we all agree increasing productivity, through tech means, is the only sound solution. Hence my remark, which was challenged .., about no other solutions and postponing the problem through import of workers long enough to be able to achieve sufficient productivity through tech.

I am serious saying that I will gladly read about solution to what is being talked about as "pension reform". If I would have one, I would sell it to a political party who then could capitalise on it in elections. Many people realise that there is a problem with pension system, by far the largest part of welfare budget as you noted unlike unemployment and other benefits, and maybe even fear the future because of uncertainty.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#99  Postby Thommo » Sep 10, 2016 3:56 am

Bernoulli wrote:"Thin excuse"? :lol: Bollocks. I've gone down the semantic rabbit hole enough times now with you to know it's a fruitless and infuriating experience.


Yes, it is. You criticise a straightforward sentence you later admit you don't understand. Of course that's fruitless and infuriating. I don't know why the fuck you did it in the first place. I don't know why you keep replying just to say that you don't want to talk about it. It's very strange behaviour.

Frankly, I suspect you're not really trying, because the "thin excuse" part relates to a completely different claim, that had nothing to do with anything I said. Not that it should really require a so-called semantic rabbit hole to communicate the idea that "you can't solve ageing demographic problems through population increases" means something different to "you can't solve ageing demographic problems through increased productivity" anyway.

Bernoulli wrote:I'm not going to make that mistake again. If you want to assert that I was bullshitting when I was making that claim, go right ahead. I'm not particularly concerned.


Thanks, I'll take you up on that then. You were bullshitting.

That's presumably why you've spent half a dozen posts discussing your own misreading of a completely separate point instead of backing up what you said.
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Re: Human Overpopulation: How can it be Curbed and Reduced.

#100  Postby Bernoulli » Sep 10, 2016 3:59 am

tuco wrote:The way you put it now, with both I guess. Its not possible to import workers forever and as we all agree increasing productivity, through tech means, is the only sound solution. Hence my remark, which was challenged .., about no other solutions and postponing the problem through import of workers long enough to be able to achieve sufficient productivity through tech.


As I said earlier, it's never going to be a case of one single solution. It's going to be a combination of approaches. Importing skilled workers (specifically for where there are skills shortages, and more generally to just keep the economy ticking over) combined with increased productivity combined with properly structuring budgets (which includes losing the ridiculous neoliberal ideology that is actually restricting growth and social (including individual) health and virtually mandating structural deficits). I don't have a lot of hope for that last one, unfortunately.

I am serious saying that I will gladly read about solution to what is being talked about as "pension reform". If I would have one, I would sell it to a political party who then could capitalise on it in election. Many people realise that there is a problem with pension system, by far the largest part of welfare budget as you noted unlike unemployment and other benefits.


I'd have to look the figures up, but I'd suspect it is actually the second largest part of the welfare budget if we included corporate welfare and tax concessions to the rich. ;)
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