Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#541  Postby Macdoc » Jul 14, 2015 12:32 pm

I'm still seeing a conflation of solar activity with solar output. They are only marginally connected.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#542  Postby Macdoc » Jul 20, 2015 9:34 pm

The heat goes on ....June numbers

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.



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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#543  Postby Steve » Jul 21, 2015 8:27 pm

Earth’s Most Famous Climate Scientist Issues Bombshell Sea Level Warning

The study—written by James Hansen, NASA’s former lead climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, many of whom are considered among the top in their fields—concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years.


One necessary note of caution: Hansen’s study comes via a nontraditional publishing decision by its authors. The study will be published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an open-access “discussion” journal, and will not have formal peer review prior to its appearance online later this week. The complete discussion draft circulated to journalists was 66 pages long, and included more than 300 references. The peer review will take place in real time, with responses to the work by other scientists also published online. Hansen said this publishing timeline was necessary to make the work public as soon as possible before global negotiators meet in Paris later this year.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#544  Postby mcgruff » Jul 23, 2015 9:31 pm

If you follow any prominent climate scientists, there have been a lot of tweets expressing skepticism about this. There don't seem to any solid grounds to believe it is likely. That's not the same as saying it's not possible but a lot more work would need to be done to show that there's any kind of high probability for this scenario.

The best we seem to know at present is that 12ft sea level rise (over a couple of hundred years or so) is guaranteed from WAIS alone and there is a real possibility of at least the same again from East Antarctica, again due to warming currents.

So the IPCC should probably be warning about 12-30ft long-term SLR already baked into the system but I don't think you can say any more than that at this time.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#545  Postby Macdoc » Jul 24, 2015 1:20 am

I'm not surprised...at the same time it seems to represent a public outbreak of a low level OMG discomfort in the community involved with ice and sea level that's been bubbling for a while as new data accumulate.

Certainly GF who is just above the current flood level in Cairns is considering selling while she can still get flood insurance as the area is cyclone prone.

How far uphill is the question.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#546  Postby Made of Stars » Jul 24, 2015 8:13 am

Kuranda should do it. :thumbup:
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#547  Postby Macdoc » Jul 24, 2015 12:04 pm

We do own property up the hill. Part of a cassowary reserve - has town water, power and cable but also rain forest that we cannot change except for a 600 sq meter building area next to the road.
Was sort of one of those "just in case" long term purchases and we support the cassowary breeding area as well with a protected region.
Not allowed to have cats or dogs....yay....
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#549  Postby Macdoc » Jul 26, 2015 4:21 pm

Thanks very good insight. That said....even the potential of a faster sea level PLUS the reality that the ocean next to us is way warmer leads us to sell before we lose flood insurance.
We are less than 3m above surge level and near a creek.
A big Cat 5 can easily over top that plus there is the creek risk.

Consensus between us...prep the old house, plan the new house .....BTW this is a 5 year exercise. Gonna be opening a thread on tropical prefabs that are cyclone proof. ( all houses must be built to cyclone standards ).
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#550  Postby Macdoc » Aug 02, 2015 3:52 pm

While not entirely on topic this is a big change in C02 forcing source,

Under the plan, the EPA will adopt a rule that regulates carbon pollution from existing power plants for the first time, and in the video, Obama called it “the biggest, most important step we’ve ever taken to combat climate change.”
Compared to the proposed rule, the new final version cuts more carbon pollution from the power sector, does it with more renewable energy and less natural gas, while providing more flexibility along the way to states trying to meet their targets.
The final version of the regulation, according to a senior administration official, will actually reduce power sector carbon pollution 32 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. This is more ambitious than the 30 percent reduction over the same period in the proposed rule.


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/02/3687076/white-house-announces-final-carbon-rule/

Maybe we can start to contemplate the lower ranges of future C02 emmissions for modeling/forecasting purposes.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#551  Postby Macdoc » Aug 03, 2015 7:24 pm

ouch

The World Glacier Monitoring Service, domiciled at the University of Zurich, has compiled worldwide data on glacier changes for more than 120 years. Together with its National Correspondents in more than 30 countries, the international service just published a new comprehensive analysis of global glacier changes in the Journal of Glaciology. In this study, observations of the first decade of the 21st century (2001-2010) were compared to all available earlier data from in-situ, air-borne, and satellite-borne observations as well as to reconstructions from pictorial and written sources.

"The observed glaciers currently lose between half a metre and one metre of its ice thickness every year -- this is two to three times more than the corresponding average of the 20th century," explains Michael Zemp, Director of the World Glacier Monitoring Service and lead author of the study. "Exact measurements of this ice loss are reported from a few hundred glaciers only. However, these results are qualitatively confirmed from field and satellite-based observations for tens of thousands of glaciers around the world."


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 083445.htm
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#552  Postby KeenIdiot » Aug 06, 2015 8:52 pm

http://www.nature.com/news/crucial-ocea ... rt-1.18124
Popped up in my newsfeed.
While ocean acidification is still a concern, the studies done to examine the effects and provide models have been found to be problematic.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#553  Postby Macdoc » Aug 06, 2015 11:36 pm

I think the better gauge it to chart the actual changes in PH in sensitive areas and see the response. The Pacific Northwest seems to be particularly sensitive.

This approach of comparing pre-acidification conditions by way of experiments I think is a better one.

The NWFSC has built an experimental state-of-the-art facility for growing animals in conditions that mimic pre-industrial, current, and future ocean carbon dioxide levels to observe changes in animal growth, survival and behavior.



http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/hott ... cation.cfm
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#554  Postby Made of Stars » Aug 07, 2015 8:06 am

This was my area of interest before I got a real job that paid with actual money. :(
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#555  Postby Macdoc » Aug 07, 2015 9:02 am

It always dismays me that scientists too often live grant to grant with no job security. We have short sighted societies.
And our idjit PM muzzles them. :nono:
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#556  Postby mcgruff » Aug 07, 2015 2:40 pm

Yeah think of the massive amounts of wealth creamed off by the finance industries which could be put to productive use. Just the frickin' bonuses alone could do a massive amount.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#557  Postby Macdoc » Aug 07, 2015 9:24 pm

Not wealth, counting sticks ....play money....scientists, engineers, writers, movie makers and manufacturers create wealth - the financial assholes shuffle it around.
99% of the worlds daily monetary transations are speculative.
1% is wealth building., :nono:

.....needs to be inverted.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#558  Postby Macdoc » Aug 20, 2015 4:19 pm

NOAA's state of the climate report for July.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201507


The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2015 was the highest for July in the 136-year period of record, at 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08°C (0.14°F). As July is climatologically the warmest month of the year globally, this monthly global temperature of 16.61°C (61.86°F) was also the highest among all 1627 months in the record that began in January 1880.

The first seven months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F).
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#559  Postby Macdoc » Sep 21, 2015 6:24 am

Scale ... :what:

China is the largest global emitter of greenhouse gases, and a large portion comes from burning coal for electricity. For reference, an 8 percent reduction in coal use over the first four months of the year resulted in a nearly 5 percent drop in the country’s overall carbon emissions — equal to the total amount emitted in Great Britain over the same time period.
The sheer scale of the electricity grid in China offers unique opportunities, for deployment of green technologies and for research. One Chinese solar company predicts that China will install 17.8 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity this year. The United States just passed the 20 GW milestone for all installations.


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/0 ... d-partner/
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#560  Postby Macdoc » Oct 09, 2015 3:07 am

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