Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#821  Postby Macdoc » Dec 26, 2016 12:24 am

Good illustration of the 2016 warmth anomaly in the far north affect on the ice cover

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#822  Postby Macdoc » Jan 05, 2017 1:31 am

One more denier myth bites the dust....

Study confirms steady warming of oceans for past 75 years
January 4, 2017
Study confirms steady warming of oceans for past 75 years
Ocean buoy (green) and satellite data (orange) measuring sea surface temperatures compared to updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions concluded in 2015 (red) after adjusting for a cold bias in buoy temperature …more
A controversial paper published two years ago that concluded there was no detectable slowdown in ocean warming over the previous 15 years - widely known as the "global warming hiatus" - has now been confirmed using independent data in research led by researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, and Berkeley Earth, a non-profit research institute focused on climate change.
The 2015 analysis showed that the modern buoys now used to measure ocean temperatures tend to report slightly cooler temperatures than older ship-based systems, even when measuring the same part of the ocean at the same time. As buoy measurements have replaced ship measurements, this had hidden some of the real-world warming.
After correcting for this "cold bias," researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded in the journal Science that the oceans have actually warmed 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since 2000, nearly twice as fast as earlier estimates of 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade. This brought the rate of ocean temperature rise in line with estimates for the previous 30 years, between 1970 and 1999.
This eliminated much of the global warming hiatus, an apparent slowdown in rising surface temperatures between 1998 and 2012. Many scientists, including the International Panel on Climate Change, acknowledged the puzzling hiatus, while those dubious about global warming pointed to it as evidence that climate change is a hoax.
Climate change skeptics attacked the NOAA researchers and a House of Representatives committee subpoenaed the scientists' emails. NOAA agreed to provide data and respond to any scientific questions but refused to comply with the subpoena, a decision supported by scientists who feared the "chilling effect" of political inquisitions.
The new study, which uses independent data from satellites and robotic floats as well as buoys, concludes that the NOAA results were correct. The paper will be published Jan. 4 in the online, open-access journal Science Advances.
"Our results mean that essentially NOAA got it right, that they were not cooking the books," said lead author Zeke Hausfather, a graduate student in UC Berkeley's Energy and Resources Group.
Study confirms steady warming of oceans for past 75 years
Ocean buoy (green) and satellite data (orange) measuring sea surface temperatures compared to updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions concluded in 2015 (red) after adjusting for a cold bias in buoy …more

Image
Ocean buoy (green) and satellite data (orange) measuring sea surface temperatures compared to updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions concluded in 2015 (red) after adjusting for a cold bias in buoy temperature measurements. The Hadley data (purple) has not been adjusted to account for some sources of cold bias. Credit: Zeke Hausfather graphic, UC Berkeley



Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2017-01-steady-oce ... s.html#jCp
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#823  Postby Animavore » Jan 05, 2017 2:16 pm





Once again, science is shown to work. The laborious process in which scientists check and recheck their work and subject their ideas to peer review has led to another success. An independent test of global warming data has confirmed a groundbreaking 2015 study that showed warming was faster than prior estimates.

Because of its inconvenient findings, the study’s lead author Thomas Karl was subjected to harassment by Lamar Smith (R-TX), chair of the House Science Committee, in an effort to impugn his credibility. But now Karl and his co-authors have been vindicated.

Let’s take a step back and discuss the science. Measuring the temperature of the Earth is hard. There are many locations to measure and many choices to make. Should we measure the temperature of the ground? Of the ocean waters? How deep in the water? If we measure air temperatures, what height should the measurements be taken? How many locations should we make measurements at? What happens if the instruments change over time or if the location changes? What happens if a city grows near a measurement location and the so-called urban heat-island effect grows? How do we estimate the temperatures in areas where no measurements exist?

These and many other questions make measuring global warming challenge. Different groups of scientists make different decisions so that depending on the institution, they will get a slightly different temperature result.

But this diversity is also a good thing. It turns out that it doesn’t matter whose results you use – NASA, NOAA, The Hadley Centre in the UK, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, or the Berkeley Earth group – they all report a warming world. However, the rates are slightly different. So, one persistent question is, which group is most accurate? Whose methods are best?


Continued. https://skepticalscience.com/new-study- ... ather.html
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#824  Postby Macdoc » Jan 06, 2017 12:06 am

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#825  Postby Macdoc » Jan 07, 2017 10:15 pm

IPCC needs to stretch their legs a bit...

IS CLIMATE TOO COMPLEX TO MODEL OR PREDICT?
SCIENTISTS SAY NO
By Seth B. Darling & Douglas L. Sisterson July 27, 2016


http://www.popsci.com/is-climate-too-co ... or-predict

They are too conservative and reality is barely within bounds...if at all....consensus of 1.9 mm per decade sea level rise bears no resemblance to the measured 3.4 .....that's a big difference for policy guidance.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#826  Postby Pulsar » Jan 16, 2017 8:11 am

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A new record low. Champagne!
"The longer I live the more I see that I am never wrong about anything, and that all the pains that I have so humbly taken to verify my notions have only wasted my time." - George Bernard Shaw
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#827  Postby Macdoc » Jan 18, 2017 5:48 am

Wow that is shattering.

Now why again am I moving to Aus tropics..??? :scratch: ...wet enough already.... :coffee:

Climate change forecast: More intense deluges and downpours Down Under
Intense rainfall will intensify by 11-30 percent even if world meets Paris Agreement targets
Date:
January 17, 2017
Source:
University of New South Wales
Summary:
Expect strong increases in rainfall during extreme precipitation events in Australia as a result of global warming making Dorothy Mackellar's now classic view of Australia as a country of droughts and flooding rains truer than ever.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 140252.htm
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#828  Postby OlivierK » Jan 18, 2017 12:09 pm

We should have the publication of 2016 average temperatures any day now. Given that it's been obvious that 2016 will break the 2015 record by approx 0.15C for some time now, I do hope we don't get another rash of "Scientists are shocked!" articles from journalists without a clue.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#829  Postby Animavore » Jan 18, 2017 12:24 pm

Was watching this earlier on why 2016 is the hottest on record. He also predicts and explains why 2017 won't be another smasher.

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#830  Postby OlivierK » Jan 18, 2017 12:49 pm

Can't watch that at the moment, but yes, that's pretty well understood, surely? I bet 2017 will still make the top 10, though.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#831  Postby Macdoc » Jan 19, 2017 8:18 am

You still think 1.5 above pre industrial re Paris will be the 2040s??..I don't



I actually donated 50 pound sterling to the Guardian this week for their superb work on climate.

This series today is just excellent,

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -president
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#832  Postby OlivierK » Jan 19, 2017 8:31 pm

Macdoc wrote:You still think 1.5 above pre industrial re Paris will be the 2040s??..I don't

Trendline? Yes.

Single El Nino years? No, probably 2020's.

El Nino peak months? Been there already in Dec 2015, and hit 1.7C over pre-industrial in Feb 2016.

2016 will come in at around 1.4C over pre-industrial (1.0C over 20thC average), during a big El Nino. We're talking about the time needed for average temperatures in ENSO-neutral years to hit a level a further 0.1C higher than this El Nino peak year. 20+ years seems about right to me, baesd on observed decadal warming rates around 0.20C.

I'm not sure we need to have this conversation again - I'll let you know if I think new data changes my views that are based on current data.
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