Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#881  Postby OlivierK » Dec 18, 2017 9:59 am

If trend goes through 1.5C above pre-industrial around 2040, as would be expected from the GWI graph you posted two posts up, then given the various factors that cause global temperature to oscillate around the trendline, you'd expect to see 1.5C over pre-industrial earlier when one of those factors (such as IPO, or ENSO) is adding positive short-term variation to the trend. The trendline is already high enough that the last ENSO peak took us past 1.5C over pre-industrial for timeframes shorter than a year, for example.

Have a look at the chart you just posted, and tell me if 1.5C GWI by 2026 (out the top by the end of the x-axis) is consistent with current global temperature trends:

Image

GWI has gone from 0.5C to 1.0C over the last 30 years. To project a similar rise to 1.5C in the next 9 years is a big call, and although the authors give a mechanism (IPO swing) they're also projecting that rise in 14 years without that mechanism, and the data don't seem to support a 0.5C trendline rise in temperature in such a short time. That's around twice the record decadal rise yet recorded for any decade. Sure, it's possible, but it's not a rate of warming that most climate scientists would subscribe to projecting over then next 9 years, but rather a figure right at the top of most projected ranges, or even a bit beyond the top.

Oh well, 9 years isn't that long to wait to see if you and Henley are right.

My personal view is that the Paris targets were set at 1.5C by 2100 exactly because that's unachievable, thus providing a political impetus for action when they're inevitably breached in another few decades. Outlier years like ENSO peaks going over 1.5C over pre-industrial even sooner will also (hopefully) concentrate a few relevant minds. We'll see, I guess.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#882  Postby Animavore » Jan 23, 2018 7:33 pm

NASA: Global surface temperatures in 2017 second-hottest on record despite no El Niño

According to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, global average temperatures in 2017 were 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (or 0.90 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 average, which makes 2017 temperatures second only to 2016.

In their own analysis, scientists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) determined that 2017 was the third-warmest year on record, behind 2016 and 2015.

Despite the small discrepancy in rankings, which is due to the different methods each team employed for analyzing temperature data, both agencies’ analyses find that the five warmest years on record have all occurred since 2010 and that Earth’s long-term warming trend continued through 2017.

https://news.mongabay.com/2018/01/nasa- ... o-el-nino/
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#883  Postby chango369 » Feb 27, 2018 11:54 pm

Spiraling out of control, jesus. It's not looking so good for the circumpolar vortex.

Image

Arctic warm event stuns scientists, as record warmth reaches North Pole
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#884  Postby Macdoc » Feb 28, 2018 2:40 am

Above freezing at the pole in Feb....yikes.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#885  Postby newolder » Feb 28, 2018 9:02 am

Macdoc wrote:Above freezing at the pole in Feb....yikes.

No. The anomaly is around +20 Celsius but the absolute values are still below 0 Celsius (273.15 K), viz:
Image
Danish Met. Institute source
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#886  Postby Macdoc » Mar 01, 2018 12:17 am

I was not referring to your graph

The North Pole Has Gone Above Freezing in The Dead of Winter, Stunning Scientists
"It's never been this extreme."

JASON SAMENOW, WASHINGTON POST
28 FEB 2018
The sun won't rise at the North Pole until March 20, and it's normally close to the coldest time of year - but an extraordinary and possibly historic thaw swelled over the tip of the planet this weekend.

Analyses show that the temperature warmed to the melting point as an enormous storm pumped an intense pulse of heat through the Greenland Sea.

Temperatures may have soared as high as 35 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) at the pole, according to the US Global Forecast System model.


more
https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists ... -of-winter
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#887  Postby newolder » Mar 01, 2018 9:21 am

Since you included no reference, I read your post as a response to the one by chango369.

Your ref:
Temperatures may have soared as high as 35 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) at the pole, according to the US Global Forecast System model.

While there are no direct measurements of temperature there, Zack Labe, a climate scientist working on his PhD at the University of California at Irvine, confirmed that several independent analyses showed "it was very close to freezing," which is more than 50 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) above normal.

and also contains the graph I posted from the Danes.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#888  Postby Macdoc » Mar 11, 2018 8:58 pm

Impact on ocean nutrient flow ....better buy fishing rights near the Antarctic ....climate change is erecting a trade barrier...

FLOODING, HEAT WAVES, AND DESTABILIZED ECOSYSTEMS: HERE'S WHAT THE NEXT 100 YEARS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COULD BRING

A new study predicts a steep drop in fisheries' production. It's the latest in a growing body of research to show how changes to the Earth's ecosystems will cause disruption to its inhabitants.


https://psmag.com/environment/climate-change-timeline

snip

The disappearance of sea ice disrupts the flow of nutrients to northern marine ecosystems, says study author J. Keith Moore, a professor of Earth system science at the University of California–Irvine and one of the developers of the Community Earth System Model that enables researchers to predict further into the future. As the ice melts, the production of phytoplankton, a microscopic plant-like organism at the bottom of the marine food chain, increases around Antarctica. However, as the ice melts, the phytoplankton absorb more sunlight and trap more nutrients in the Antarctic sea area. This causes significantly more nutrients to sink to the deep southern ocean instead of moving northward to other marine ecosystems. "In upper oceans, everywhere to the north, you start to see this steadily declining nutrient concentration," Moore says.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#889  Postby Keep It Real » Apr 03, 2018 8:13 am

I received this in an email from Greenpeace today.

Today is the day! For the first time in history official hearings begin in an investigation into Shell, BHP Billiton, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ENI, ExxonMobil, Glencore, OMV, Repsol, Sasol, Suncor, Total, RWE and another 33 companies for human rights violations resulting from climate change.

That’s right! On Tuesday, in Manila, the Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines will hold the first in a series of hearings in its investigation into the responsibility of the Carbon Majors for Human Rights Violations or Threats of Violations Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change begins..

This is for REAL! It is anticipated that the Commission will conclude its investigation by the end of THIS year and issue its recommendations in early 2019. The outcome has the potential to shift global understanding of corporate responsibility for climate change and send a strong signal that companies must take action to prevent further harm resulting from the climate crisis.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#890  Postby Hermit » Jun 20, 2018 10:10 am

Alice Springs yesterday morning. It's just about smack bang in the middle of Australia.

Image

What global warming?

:scratch:
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#891  Postby Animavore » Jun 20, 2018 10:17 am

In the middle of Summer too!
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#892  Postby zulumoose » Jun 20, 2018 10:34 am

Look like Eucalyptus leaves, so it is probably just Koala drool.
BTW it is mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, I am wearing a jersey and have a heater on under my desk.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#893  Postby OlivierK » Jun 20, 2018 12:16 pm

Hermit wrote:Alice Springs yesterday morning. It's just about smack bang in the middle of Australia.

Image

What global warming?

:scratch:

Not sure if this post is serious, or seriously stupid, or both. It's definitely not neither.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#894  Postby Macdoc » Jun 21, 2018 4:13 am

Neither ....your sarcasm detector busted??? :coffee:

•••••


Ocean’s heat cycle shows that atmospheric carbon may be headed elsewhere
Morgan Kelly, Princeton Environmental Institute
June 19, 2018 3:54 p.m.
As humans continue to pump the atmosphere with carbon, it’s crucial for scientists to understand how and where the planet absorbs and naturally emits carbon.


https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/06/ ... -elsewhere
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#895  Postby Hermit » Jun 21, 2018 6:55 am

Macdoc wrote:Neither ....your sarcasm detector busted??? :coffee:

Too obvious, huh?

Damn. It was meant to trip you up, trigger you into a righteous torrent of anger and ranting against ignorant, thick as two planks climate change denialist fucktards so stupid that they still haven't glommed on to the difference between weather and climate such as I.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#896  Postby Macdoc » Jun 29, 2018 6:36 pm

I like this ....

Electrogeochemistry' captures carbon, produces fuel, offsets ocean acidification
Date:
June 25, 2018
Source:
University of California - Santa Cruz
Summary:
Limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius will require not only reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, but also active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This has prompted heightened interest in 'negative emissions technologies.' A new study evaluates the potential for recently described methods that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through an 'electrogeochemical' process that also generates hydrogen gas for use as fuel and creates by-products that can help counteract ocean acidification.

more
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 192825.htm
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#897  Postby Macdoc » Jul 28, 2018 2:09 am

In the hating to be correct category ....

Extreme global weather is 'the face of climate change' says leading scientist
Exclusive: Prof Michael Mann declares the impacts of global warming are now ‘playing out in real-time’

• Heatwave made more than twice as likely by climate change, scientists find
Damian Carrington Environment editor
@dpcarrington
Fri 27 Jul 2018 18.02 BST Last modified on Fri 27 Jul 2018 22.00 BST
Emergency workers among damaged vehicles in a open parking area of northern Athens after a flash flood struck the Greek capital.
Emergency workers among damaged vehicles in a open parking area of northern Athens after a flash flood struck the Greek capital. Photograph: Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images
The extreme heatwaves and wildfires wreaking havoc around the globe are “the face of climate change”, one of the world’s leading climate scientists has declared, with the impacts of global warming now “playing out in real time”.

Climate change has long been predicted to increase extreme weather incidents, and scientists are now confident these predictions are coming true. Scientists say the global warming has contributed to on the scorching temperatures that have baked the UK and northern Europe for weeks.

The hot spell was made more than twice as likely by climate change, a new analysis found, demonstrating an “unambiguous” link.

Extreme weather has struck across Europe, from the Arctic Circle to Greece, and across the world, from North America to Japan. “This is the face of climate change,” said Prof Michael Mann, at Penn State University, and one the world’s most eminent climate scientists. “We literally would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change.”

“The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle,” he told the Guardian. “We are seeing them play out in real time and what is happening this summer is a perfect example of that.”

“We are seeing our predictions come true,” he said. “As a scientist that is reassuring, but as a citizen of planet Earth, it is very distressing to see that as it means we have not taken the necessary action.


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https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... chael-mann
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#898  Postby Mike_L » Aug 12, 2018 5:34 pm

Climate Change Linked To Suicide?
Global Warming May Play Role In Thousands Of Self-Inflicted Deaths, Study Claims


By Daniel Steingold
9 August 2018

Global warming doesn’t just hurt the planet’s health — it may harm people’s too. An alarming new study from Stanford University brings one potential major human-afflicting consequence of climate change into focus by exploring the link between rising temperatures and suicide rates.

Researchers discovered a positive association between the two, and a shocking one at that. They predict something to the tune of 21,000 suicides in just the U.S. and Mexico by 2050.

The study, led by Stanford economist Marshall Burke, gathered a broad set of data, including historical temperature and suicide rate data across thousands of regions, along with half a billion tweets and Twitter updates, to help establish the correlation between hot weather and suicide rates. Suicide is now one of the world’s leading causes of death, making this research more timely than ever.

While previous research had established that warm weather was linked to a higher incidence of suicide, there was no consensus on whether balmy temperatures were the cause of the epidemic or merely correlated. Extra daylight hours or high unemployment rates, for example, could be the true culprit.

Hot weather, on its own, the researchers found, does increase both suicide rates and the use of depressive language on social media, which confirmed their hypothesis.
...

...
“We’ve been studying the effects of warming on conflict and violence for years, finding that people fight more when it’s hot,” explains Solomon Hsiang, the study’s co-author. “Now we see that in addition to hurting others, some individuals hurt themselves. It appears that heat profoundly affects the human mind and how we decide to inflict harm.”
...

Full text at:
https://www.studyfinds.org/climate-change-suicide-global-warming-study/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=mixi&utm_campaign=studyfinds
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#899  Postby Animavore » Aug 15, 2018 12:33 pm

Depressing. Not only is it hard to find a good book on climate change on Amazon; all the top rated books are denialist screeds.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#900  Postby Macdoc » Aug 15, 2018 12:35 pm

Climate science is moving too quickly for a book to be accurate. Denialist screeds are set in stone.....and wrong
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