Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#921  Postby Macdoc » Oct 29, 2018 2:37 pm

OK
If the expectation is for the future rate to be markedly different from the current rate, what's the cause?


You didn't read the paper did you? Just dismissed it as crank. Nor did you read the IPCC 1.5C report where the graph indicates 2034 without taking into account the decadal oscillation which could shift that forward into late 2020.

It has been covered off by other publications

Paris 1.5°C target may be smashed by 2026: A change to a positive ...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 184929.htm
May 8, 2017 - A change to a positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ... These were both periods that saw rapid increases in global average .

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 184929.htm

snip
"Even if the IPO remains in a negative phase, our research shows we will still likely see global temperatures break through the 1.5°C guardrail by 2031," said lead author Dr Ben Henley.

"If the world is to have any hope of meeting the Paris target, governments will need to pursue policies that not only reduce emissions but remove carbon from the atmosphere.


and the poor coverage of the Arctic by the IPCC publications puts them wrong footed tho the 1.5c Report converges better.

In addition course the rate of emissions has been going up after an encouraging pause so there is no firm ground to project even if all other factors remained the same.

Global carbon dioxide emissions surged to record levels the year after the landmark 2016 Paris climate agreement was signed.

Energy-related emissions climbed 1.4 percent to 32.5 gigatons in 2017, the International Energy Agency reported yesterday in its annual survey of global carbon levels. The increase is the equivalent of adding 170 million cars to the road, the agency said.

The uptick—coming on the heels of the major international climate deal—signals an abrupt end to several years of stagnant emissions growth and raises questions about the world’s commitment to reducing carbon levels.

“It’s not good news,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “It certainly is a sign that we have a great deal of work to do to meet the commitments that countries made in Paris to limit emissions and the harmful effects of climate change.”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... nt-signed/

There is especially no expectation of reversing that with the dumpf at the wheel and the election of a right winger in Brazil does not bode well for controlling emissions.

There is a dismaying rise in nationalism which makes any sort of a Manhattan level effort to curb emissions in a global framework an increasingly distant chance.

The chance of 1.5 C increase as late as the 2040s is now pretty much non-existent barring major volcano activity.

•••••

and Hermit ...piss off unless you have something of climate science value to offer. If individuals in the first world offset the way I do then part of the issue would be resolved.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#922  Postby OlivierK » Oct 29, 2018 8:46 pm

Macdoc wrote:OK
If the expectation is for the future rate to be markedly different from the current rate, what's the cause?


You didn't read the paper did you? Just dismissed it as crank. Nor did you read the IPCC 1.5C report where the graph indicates 2034 without taking into account the decadal oscillation which could shift that forward into late 2020.

I did read the abstract, but the paper itself is paywalled. I didn't dismiss it as "crank", that's entirely your own invention. I've reported your posts in the past for chronically mischaracterising my position on climate change. Do I need to start again?

The paper says we're headed for 1.5C sooner than the established consensus. That could be due to several factors: that we're (i) starting from closer than we thought, (ii) we're warming faster than we thought, or (iii) that warming will accelerate starting Real Soon Now. The IPO turning positive would be a factor contributing to (iii), but in the past has not produced warmings of the magnitude required to draw the conclusions drawn by the paper, so I'm wondering if the authors, or yourself, propose a contribution from (i) or (ii).

The graph you refer to as from the IPCC 1.5C report is in fact a third party graph that claims to use the IPCC 1.5C report data. It does indeed show 1.5C by 2034, but it also shows 1.18C by 2018, which is about 0.15C higher than most estimates of current warming. That's about a decade's worth of warming, so it makes sense that that graph shows 1.5C about a decade earlier than most, which is an example of how an earlier forcast of 1.5C could be due to explanation (i) above, rather than (iii).

Hence my questions.

So why don't you have a go at answering them?

I'd be genuinely interested in (a) what your position actually is, and (b) whether, despite all your chest-beating and claims of expertise, you actually CAN answer such simple questions with direct answers, because I'm genuinely starting to have my doubts whether your technical familiarity with the subject even stretches that far; or whether your interest is entirely on an emotional/activist level (nothing wrong with that). Every time you're asked for specifics, you reply with bluster. If you do that again here, the natural conclusion would be that you're not in possession of the fairly fundamental facts requested. I'm not sure you have it in you to surprise me with honest answers.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#923  Postby Macdoc » Nov 04, 2018 6:26 pm

Prepare for turbulence ...please fasten your seat belts.
Good read on the stalling systems and the the impact on extreme weather

Climate Change and Extreme Summer Weather Events – The Future is still in Our Hands
Filed under: Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Climate impacts Climate Science Greenhouse gases heatwaves — mike @ 31 October 2018


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... our-hands/
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#924  Postby LucidFlight » Nov 24, 2018 4:36 pm

A Grave Climate Warning, Buried on Black Friday
In a massive new report, federal scientists contradict President Trump and assert that climate change is an intensifying danger to the United States. Too bad it came out on a holiday.

Most significantly, the National Climate Assessment—which is endorsed by nasa, noaa, the Department of Defense, and 10 other federal scientific agencies—contradicts nearly every position taken on the issue by President Donald Trump. Where the president has insisted that fighting global warming will harm the economy, the report responds: Climate change, if left unchecked, could eventually cost the economy hundreds of billions of dollars per year, and kill thousands of Americans to boot. Where the president has said that the climate will “probably” “change back,” the report replies: Many consequences of climate change will last for millennia, and some (such as the extinction of plant and animal species) will be permanent.


https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/576589/

Oh, and the assessment, of course:
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#925  Postby newolder » Feb 06, 2019 1:08 pm


Upcoming Live Events (all times Eastern)

Friday, Feb. 6, 11:30 a.m.: Media teleconference on 2018 global temperatures. Live streaming audio of the teleconference will be available on this page. Climate experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will provide the annual release of global temperatures data and discuss the most important climate trends of 2018. The teleconference participants are:

Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York
Deke Arndt, chief of the global monitoring branch of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina

More @ NASAlive link
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#926  Postby chango369 » Feb 11, 2019 12:21 am

chango369 wrote:I ran into this while surfing around.

http://www.globalwarmingindex.org

Bookmarking today's GWI:

gwi20171121.jpg
gwi20171121.jpg (18.69 KiB) Viewed 604 times


I happened to catch it flipping the hundredth digit.

gwi20190211.png
gwi20190211.png (5.21 KiB) Viewed 604 times
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#928  Postby newolder » May 05, 2019 3:35 pm

Latest data and analysis on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the Scripps Institute shows recent acceleration compared with 4 to 5 decades ago:
Image
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#929  Postby Pulsar » May 05, 2019 4:33 pm

Global sea ice extent is at record low again

Image
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#930  Postby chango369 » Jun 08, 2019 4:02 pm

From a Australian policy paper:

An existential risk to civilisation is one posing permanent large negative consequences to humanity which may never be undone, either annihilating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtailing its potential.

With the commitments by nations to the 2015 Paris Agreement, the current path of warming is 3°C or more by 2100. But this figure does not include “long-term” carbon-cycle feedbacks, which are materially relevant now and in the near future due to the unprecedented rate at which human activity is perturbing the climate system. Taking these into account, the Paris path would lead to around 5°C of warming by 2100.

...

Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#931  Postby Animavore » Jun 11, 2019 6:32 pm

It just gets worse.


Drone surveys have revealed erosion of coastal permafrost in the Arctic — up to 3 feet a day. Researchers reported Friday that the recent rate of erosion is six times higher than the historical rate.

Meanwhile, the Arctic just saw the hottest May on record, with temperatures in northwest Russia hitting a remarkable 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29 degrees Celsius). Global warming is driving Arctic sea ice to near-record lows, which in turn is driving ever-worsening summer heat waves in the southern United States, according to another new study.

https://thinkprogress.org/arctic-death- ... Fvf6ojmd7I
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#932  Postby Animavore » Jun 11, 2019 6:38 pm

The sweltering heat in the Bay Area on Monday shattered multiple decades-old records, caused a meltdown of the BART system and left thousands of people without electricity.

It got so hot, BART trains experienced major delays systemwide during the evening commute when the heat caused trackway equipment problems.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.sfchron ... 964987.php
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#933  Postby chango369 » Jun 15, 2019 11:28 am

Arctic Permafrost Melting 70 Years Sooner Than Expected, Study Finds

meltingpermafrost.jpg
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#934  Postby theropod » Jun 15, 2019 12:41 pm



:this:

This may well be the straw that breaks the camels back.

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#935  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 15, 2019 2:35 pm

Frightening stuff, so business as usual folks!
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#936  Postby Animavore » Jun 22, 2019 11:09 pm

Hot on the heels of the permafrost melting earlier than expected.


20190622_woc543.png
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#937  Postby Animavore » Jul 13, 2019 7:21 pm

The continuous accumulation of carbon dioxide in the planet's oceans—which shows no sign of stopping due to humanity's relentless consumption of fossil fuels—is likely to trigger a chemical reaction in Earth's carbon cycle similar to those which happened just before mass extinction events, according to a new study.

MIT geophysics professor Daniel Rothman released new data on Monday showing that carbon levels today could be fast approaching a tipping point threshold that could trigger extreme ocean acidificationsimilar to the kind that contributed to the Permian–Triassic mass extinction that occurred about 250 million years ago. 

Rothman's new research comes two years after he predicted that a mass extinction event could take place at the end of this century. Since 2017, he has been working to understand how life on Earth might be wiped out due to increased carbon in the oceans.

Rothman created a model in which he simulated adding carbon dioxide to oceans, finding that when the gas was added to an already-stable marine environment, only temporary acidification occurred.

When he continuously pumped carbon into the oceans, however, as humans have been doing at greater and greater levels since the late 18th century, the ocean model eventually reached a threshold which triggered what MIT called "a cascade of chemical feedbacks," or "excitation," causing extreme acidification and worsening the warming effects of the originally-added carbon.

Over the past 540 million years, these chemical feedbacks have occurred at various times, Rothman noted.

But the most significant occurances took place around the time of four out of the five mass extinction events—and today's oceans are absorbing carbon far more quickly than they did before the Permian–Triassic extinction, in which 90 percent of life on Earth died out.

The planet may now be "at the precipice of excitation," Rothman told 

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/ ... DjPI0yvuoA
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#938  Postby Animavore » Jul 13, 2019 8:10 pm

Disappearing sea ice is changing the whole ecosystem of the Arctic Ocean

I drafted this while looking north over the frozen Lincoln Sea, at the northernmost tip of Ellesmere Island in Canada. I was at Alert, a Canadian Forces Station which, at 82°N, is the most northerly permanently inhabited place on Earth. Just 815km away, across the Arctic Ocean, lay the North Pole.

It was May, and the sea should have still been frozen, but this year the bridge of sea ice between Ellesmere and Greenland broke up early, and Arctic ice began flowing down the narrow Nares Channel and south into Baffin Bay. All across the Arctic Ocean, the amount and persistence of sea ice is declining – September ice cover has fallen around 30% since 1980.

The Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the planet, and images of polar bears on small ice floes capture the imagination. But those images represent (excusing the pun) only the tip of the iceberg – the consequences of ice loss are profound and start from the very bottom of the food chain, in the microbial processes that drive the biology of the ocean.


https://theconversation.com/disappearin ... ean-117433
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#939  Postby theropod » Jul 13, 2019 8:40 pm

We may not to out in a glowing cloud of fire and cloaked in glory, but rather curled up in a fetal position struggling to breathe.

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#940  Postby Macdoc » Jul 14, 2019 5:03 pm

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