Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#961  Postby Macdoc » Aug 23, 2019 11:41 pm

There are very very few works in coal plants and if they had not seen the writing on the wall....:coffee:
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#962  Postby romansh » Aug 24, 2019 1:00 am

Macdoc wrote:There are very very few works in coal plants and if they had not seen the writing on the wall....:coffee:

Coal plants are becoming increasingly automated?
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#963  Postby Macdoc » Aug 24, 2019 12:13 pm

Yup

Ohio 114 plants 23,825 MW 4,289 employees

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/C ... ted_States

37 employees per coal plant on average in Ohio where a Walmart or other big box might have 150-200 workers per location

Average coal power plant employment has fallen dramatically over the past few decades - both due to technological developments and to rising labor costs. In 1985, according to the EIA, the average 300 MW coal-fired power plant had 78 employees; thus, employment per megawatt declined by 32% between 1985 and 1997.[13]


A 2011 Ochs Center for Metropolitan Studies report, "A Fraction of the Jobs" found that power companies have overestimated the number of jobs created by new coal-fired power plants. The analysis looked at the six largest new coal-fired power plants to come online between 2005 and 2009, and combed through each project’s initial proposals and job projection data, including public statements, published documents and other material. They then compared that data to actual employment — before, during and after construction — in the areas where the projects were built, relying chiefly on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.[21]

They found that only a little over half - or 56 percent - of every 1,000 jobs projected, appeared to be actually created as a result of the coal plants’ coming online.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#964  Postby Cito di Pense » Aug 24, 2019 12:58 pm

romansh wrote:
Macdoc wrote:There are very very few works in coal plants and if they had not seen the writing on the wall....:coffee:

Coal plants are becoming increasingly automated?


Macdoc wrote:There are very very few works in coal plants and if they had not seen the writing on the wall....:coffee:


Not climate science. Not really.

CdesignProponentsist wrote:
Macdoc wrote:small steps with some momentum but long term it all helps

ENERGY
And Now the Really Big Coal Plants Begin to Close
Old, small plants were the early retirees, but several of the biggest U.S. coal burners—and CO2 emitters—will be shuttered by year’s end


https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -to-close/


The sad part of this is that the workers will likely receive zero support from the government for finding new training and new work.


This is not climate science, and has now led to a considerable derail. Maybe there just isn't enough climate science to discuss. If you want, I can add some:

You know, the calculations of how much olivine to dump on beaches only seems to take into consideration compensating for human carbon inputs, but this is probably not enough. The arctic regions are thawing, and a feedback is under way. The smart money is on how to buy enough time to start solving climate problems, but there isn't really very much smart money these days.

https://www.npr.org/2015/07/11/42199588 ... from-homes

https://www.npr.org/2015/07/27/42659537 ... rbons-thaw

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/21/75321331 ... atmosphere

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#965  Postby Macdoc » Aug 24, 2019 6:26 pm

We can and are ....just not as fast as some would like. Olivine makes the most sense from an accelerated sequestration program and I like the idea of a green beach.

Planet is big, people are going to dwindle ...it will be a different planet and a diminished biome....but then genetics is moving fast....I like the re-wilding going on.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#966  Postby newolder » Sep 08, 2019 9:29 pm

For a change, here's some encouraging climate news on ozone hole closure:

Image
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#967  Postby Keep It Real » Sep 08, 2019 9:35 pm

...
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#968  Postby Macdoc » Sep 23, 2019 12:42 pm

A long way from 2040 or even 2030 for 1.2C... 2025 seems the likely reality :coffee:

"Basically we are on track to reach at least 1.2 to 1.3 degrees centigrade (above pre-industrial levels) over the next five years," Omar Baddour, WMO senior scientific officer, said in response to a Reuters question at a Geneva news conference.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/glob ... -1.5293624
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#969  Postby OlivierK » Sep 23, 2019 1:17 pm

Yep. Warming is going at just under 0.2C per decade, and we're at just over 1.1C above pre-industrial now. So in 5 years, you'd expect the planet to have warmed a futher 0.1C and be at more than 1.2C above pre-industrial.

In two decades (around 2040) we'd expect a little under 0.4C of further warming, putting us pretty much at 1.5C above pre-industrial.

Image
http://globalwarmingindex.org

The trend has been remarkably steady for the last 40 years, and yet you seem constantly surprised by data that shows us tracking along that well-established rate of warming, or projections that it will continue.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#970  Postby Alan B » Sep 23, 2019 2:00 pm

Macdoc wrote:There are very very few works in coal plants and if they had not seen the writing on the wall....:coffee:

Aw, c'mon, Mac. the method employed in digging up coal is irrelevant. What is relevant is what the coal is used for.
Coal is an essential source for various chemical constituents extracted for other industries as well as used for wasteful burning to provide energy. The latter obviously produces GHG but does anyone know how much GHG the chemical by-product extraction processes produce?
Can the chemical by-products extracted be obtained from other sources?
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#971  Postby Macdoc » Sep 23, 2019 9:53 pm

essential resource ??? such as ???

I suspect nothing in coal can't be obtained from liquid hydrocarbons....with less effort.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#972  Postby Macdoc » Sep 23, 2019 10:30 pm

Very good coverage/explanation of modelling from The Economist.

Climate science
Predicting the climatic future is riddled with uncertainty
But researchers are doing the best they can


https://www.economist.com/science-and-t ... ncertainty
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#973  Postby Animavore » Sep 24, 2019 6:06 am

Brilliant interview with Michael Mann on Sean Carroll's Mindscape yesterday on how we know our climate is changing. It's over an hour ling and Mann is impressive with the breadth of his knowledge on the subject.

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#974  Postby Macdoc » Sep 24, 2019 3:01 pm

Good to see this formalized

How the aviation industry's carbon offsetting scheme will work

Thomson Reuters · Posted: Sep 24, 2019 10:23 AM ET | Last Updated: a minute ago


International airlines are counting on a global carbon offsetting plan to cap CO2 emissions from air travel at 2020 levels, mitigating the environmental impact of flying even as passenger traffic is forecast to grow.

The plan, known as Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), is the first of its kind for a single industry in response to climate change.

Aviation leaders will discuss the program at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)'s triennial assembly that starts on Tuesday in Montreal amid rising pressure from climate activists, including by Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg.

What is CORSIA and how will it work?

CORSIA was established by ICAO, the UN body that sets standards for international air travel, in 2016, and is due to start in 2021.

To achieve carbon-neutral growth after 2020, despite rising traffic, participating commercial airlines aim to use more fuel-efficient aircraft, find more direct flight paths by improved air traffic control and substitute conventional fuel with more sustainable biofuels.

But since biofuels are costly compared with jet kerosene and in limited supply, airlines are expected to largely offset their rising emissions by purchasing carbon credits from designated environmental projects around the world.


more
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/cors ... -1.5290194
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#975  Postby newolder » Sep 25, 2019 11:53 am

September 2019
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

ipcc link to download report link, press release, headline statements &more
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#976  Postby chango369 » Sep 25, 2019 8:59 pm

Todays' GWI from http://www.globalwarmingindex.org along with the other two snapshots I've taken in this thread. I then took whatever the numbers were and calculated the increase that took place. I also calculated the number of days in between snapshots along with avg GWI increase per day over the time period. I don't know how reliable this index is, but I had expected that the increases were going to be more linear.

gwi20171121.jpg
gwi20171121.jpg (18.69 KiB) Viewed 528 times


Number of days: 448 GWI increase: 0.050588202 Avg GWI daily increase: 0.000112920

gwi20190211.png
gwi20190211.png (5.21 KiB) Viewed 528 times


Number of days: 227 GWI increase: 0.058142667 Avg GWI daily increase 0.000256135

gwi20190925.jpg
gwi20190925.jpg (18.84 KiB) Viewed 528 times
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#977  Postby Macdoc » Sep 25, 2019 11:23 pm

Not sure what it is based on but AGW generally needs a 30 year baseline ...ENSO, and other circulation events, volcanoes all lead to shorter term variations of the global temps and it is far from linear.

Maybe sunspots have some play as well as noted earlier tho the the link seems tenuous without a clear mechanism.

We are also showing lots of SO2 emmissions in some regions and that is a replay of global cooling. :roll:
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#978  Postby newolder » Sep 26, 2019 7:24 am

Posting Earthly temperature measures to nano-Celsius precision (not accuracy as there are no error bars suppled) is the dumbest thing I've read since Trump's memo. :roll:
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#979  Postby OlivierK » Sep 26, 2019 11:02 am

It's not meant to be an up-to-the-second temperature, it's an index based on a moving average. I suspect the reason they go to so many decimal places is purely for the aesthetic of having them ticking over (the website version is animated, not static) to give an idea of the rate of increase. Taking it as a literal measured-to-9-decimal-places temperature would be, to me, significantly dumber than publishing a graphic animated to help visualise an upward trend in global temperature, and I'm sure nobody does so.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#980  Postby Macdoc » Oct 06, 2019 3:47 pm

September 2019 equal hottest on record: monitor
The Copernicus Climate Service said September 2019 was 0.57 Celsius hotter than the historical average

Last month was the equal hottest September in history, the European Union's satellite monitoring service said Friday, the fourth month in a row with near- or record-breaking temperatures.

The Copernicus Climate Service said September 2019 was 0.57 Celsius hotter than the historical average—on a par with September 2016.

Last month was in fact very slightly warmer (0.02 C) than September but the service said they were treating both as joint record-holders.

The data continues Earth's hot streak, with June being the warmest June ever, July the warmest month in recorded history. August was the second hottest August since records began.

Copernicus said its data was further evidence of our planet's "long-term warming trend".

The service, which uses satellite imaging to observe ground-based climate trends, said it had registered significantly hotter than average months for the central and eastern United States, the Mongolian plateau and parts of the Arctic.

Temperatures in Europe were lower than the September average, as they were in southwestern parts of Russia and parts of Antarctica.

Yet the overall trend is hotter, according to Copernicus Director Jean-Noel Thepaut.

"The recent series of record-breaking temperatures is an alarming reminder of the long-term warming trend that can be observed on a global level," Thepaut said.

"With continued greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting impact on global temperatures, records will continue to be broken in the future."

Earth has warmed a little over 1 C since pre-industrial times and manmade emissions—as well as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases—are rising annually.

Several peer-reviewed studies released this year showed that Earth had never in human history warmed so rapidly and uniformly as currently.

https://phys.org/news/2019-10-september ... ttest.html
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