Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1001  Postby OlivierK » Jan 18, 2020 6:08 pm


I haven't got around to reading it, but I'm familiar with the site that published it...

Overall, we rate Principia Scientific International (PSI) a strong conspiracy and Pseudoscience website that promotes anti-vaccine propaganda and frequent misinformation regarding climate change.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/principi ... rnational/
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1002  Postby Hermit » Jan 18, 2020 6:14 pm


Principia Scientific International (PSI) is an organization based in the United Kingdom which promotes fringe views and material to claim that carbon dioxide is not a greenhouse gas. PSI was formed in 2010 around the time they published their first book, titled Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory. [1]

PSI claims it provides its members with a “reliable port of call to ascertain the facts behind the news stories to better judge whether information being presented by third parties is accurate information and reflects a balanced view of all facets of the subject.” [2]

The PSI website says the organization is “for everyone who supports the traditions [sic] scientific method against the rise of sinister and secretive government funded 'post normal science'.”

Link


John O'Sullivan is a UK-based climate denialist blogger, writer and the sole active director of Principia Scientific International - a membership group promoting fringe views on climate change science and role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. O'Sullivan, a former school teacher, claims the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide is unproven and that human-caused climate change is a “fraud”.

Link

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1003  Postby Hermit » Jan 18, 2020 6:37 pm

From the article's author's CV:

EDUCATION
University of Oxford, D.Phil., Geology (Sedimentology), 1982-86
University of Calgary, M.Sc., Geology (Sedimentology), 1975-77
University of London (Imperial College, Royal School of Mines), B.Sc. Hons, Geology, specializing in petroleum geology, 1972-75

CAREER SUMMARY
5 years as petroleum explorationist (sic) with Esso and Aquitaine-Canterra in Calgary...

Clients: Beicip-Franlab, BHP, British Columbia Ministry of Energy, Canadian Petroleum, Chevron, Ecopetrol, Elf, Emerald, Finavera, Geoquest, Geological Survey of Canada (Pacific Geoscience Centre, 2 yrs), IFP, Intera, Jordan NPC, Mobil, Noble, Oil India Ltd, Petróleos de Venezuela (3 yrs), PetroSA, Polish Oil & Gas Institute, Preussag, Repsol-YPF, Schlumberger, Talisman, Tectonic Analysis Inc.

AFFILIATIONS
American Association of Petroleum Geologists (active)
Asociación Colombiana de Geólogos y Geofísicos del Petroleo...
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1004  Postby ElDiablo » Jan 18, 2020 7:23 pm

Ah, sorry for adding it here then.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1005  Postby Macdoc » Feb 07, 2020 6:44 pm

That's quite the change ....lot of energy :what: Gotta be some knock on effects of that in the biome and weather.

‘A Little Shocking’: Ocean Currents Are Speeding up Significantly, Study Finds
Olivia Rosane Feb. 06, 2020 09:13AM EST OCEANS

The world's oceans are getting faster, a new study has found. gcalebjones / Public Domain
The world's oceans are moving faster, and researchers think it might be another sign of the climate crisis.

A new paper, published in Science Advances Wednesday, found that 76 percent of the top 2,000 meters of the ocean appears to have sped up since the 1990s, largely because of wind speeds. And the ocean's speedup is more than can be explained by "natural variability."

"The Earth is our patient, and you look for symptoms of how it is reacting to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing," study coauthor and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration researcher Michael McPhaden told The Washington Post. "This is another symptom."

Each ocean current moves as much water as all the world's rivers combined, Science Magazine explained. Researchers found that between 1990 and 2013, the energy of these currents increased by 15 percent per decade.

"This is a really huge increase," Susan Wijffels, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution who was not involved with the paper, told Science Magazine.

At the same time, wind speed has increased by around two percent per decade and ocean current speed by around five percent per decade, according to The Washington Post.


more
https://www.ecowatch.com/ocean-currents ... belltitem1
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1006  Postby Macdoc » Feb 14, 2020 3:36 pm

restless giant

NASA flights detect millions of Arctic methane hotspots
Date:
February 13, 2020
Source:
NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Summary:
In a new study, scientists with NASA's Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) used planes equipped with the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer -- Next Generation (AVIRIS -- NG), a highly specialized instrument, to fly over some 20,000 square miles (30,000 square kilometers) of the Arctic landscape in the hope of detecting methane hotspots. The instrument did not disappoint.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 192422.htm
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1007  Postby Macdoc » Jul 09, 2020 2:59 am

The World Meteorological Organisation says there's a growing chance that global temperatures will rise by more than 1.5C over the next five years, compared to pre-industrial levels.

It assesses a 20% chance the threshold will be broken in one year before 2024 and a 70% chance it will be broken in one or more months in those five years.


https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1008  Postby OlivierK » Jul 09, 2020 4:24 am

1.5C over pre-industrial has already been broken for individual months many times, including the first four months of this year, so that 70% figure I think should probably be 100%.

2016 came in at about 1.42C above pre-industrial, and warming is going at about 0.2C per decade, so a similar sized el Nino any time from now onwards will push a full year over. Chances of another big Nino year by 2024 are probably more than 20%.

Especially with the Nino/Nina oscillation, yearly data can be anything up to about +/-0.3C from the trend. With warming running at 0.2C/decade, it would be normal to expect big Nino years to hit 1.5C anywhere up to 15 years before the trend temperature gets to the same level. With current trend warming of 1.15C over pre-industrial, we're on track for trend temperatures of +1.5C by 2040, so that's consistent with the first such single year coming around 2025. Giving it a 20% chance seems to be underestimating the odds significantly, although we are heading a bit on the Nina side of the oscillation at the moment so they may be factoring that in.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1009  Postby Animavore » Jul 13, 2020 12:28 am

A most evolved electron.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1010  Postby Macdoc » Jul 22, 2020 11:11 pm

ugh
Scientists Just Updated One of the Most Important Climate Metrics, and It's Bad

https://earther.gizmodo.com/scientists- ... ource=digg
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1011  Postby felltoearth » Jul 17, 2021 12:29 pm

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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1012  Postby hackenslash » Jul 17, 2021 12:51 pm

This is new, in my experience:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57751918

The first time I've seen unequivocal statements (outside the armchair McExperts) to the effect that specific events are tied directly to climate change.

There's a really good piece on BBC journalist Ros Atkins' twitter feed, unfortunately not available on the Beeb's Youtube channel yet.

https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status ... 4148940803
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1013  Postby Macdoc » Jul 29, 2021 12:42 am

Next month, after a yearlong delay because of the pandemic, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will begin to release its first major assessment of human-caused global warming since 2013. The report, the first part of which will appear on 9 August, will drop on a world that has starkly changed in 8 years, warming by more than 0.3°C to nearly 1.3°C above preindustrial levels.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07 ... re-warming
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1014  Postby hackenslash » Aug 03, 2021 7:33 pm

New in nature:

Abstract wrote:The observed trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (TEEI), a measure of the acceleration of heat uptake by the planet, is a fundamental indicator of perturbations to climate. Satellite observations (2001–2020) reveal a significant positive globally-averaged TEEI of 0.38 ± 0.24 Wm−2decade−1, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Using climate model simulations, we show that it is exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability) that this trend can be explained by internal variability. Instead, TEEI is achieved only upon accounting for the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing and the associated climate response. TEEI is driven by a large decrease in reflected solar radiation and a small increase in emitted infrared radiation. This is because recent changes in forcing and feedbacks are additive in the solar spectrum, while being nearly offset by each other in the infrared. We conclude that the satellite record provides clear evidence of a human-influenced climate system.


Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance - Raghuraman et al.

Yet another smoking gun.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1015  Postby Macdoc » Aug 10, 2021 6:27 am

A new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds that the world may warm by 1.5°C by the early 2030s, much earlier than previously estimated. It’s terrible news for the Pacific. With temperatures rising above 1.5°C, Pacific communities are likely to experience increasingly devastating climate change impacts.

The key takeaway from the IPCC report is that the more we know, the worse it looks. The planet is now already between 0.8°C and 1.3°C warmer than in pre-industrial times – moving frighteningly close to the 1.5°C threshold.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... he-pacific
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1016  Postby felltoearth » Aug 17, 2021 2:49 am

U.S. declares first Western reservoir water shortage, triggering cuts | Reuters
Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. officials for the first time on Monday declared an official water shortage for the massive Lake Mead reservoir, triggering supply cuts to parts of the drought-stricken Southwest, as 10 Western governors appealed for federal drought disaster aid.

The shortage will reduce water apportionments to Arizona, Nevada and Mexico for the year beginning in October, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, an Interior Department agency, said in a statement.

Arizona will lose 18% of its annual apportionment, while Nevada will see cuts of 7%. Apportionments to Mexico, which are required under a 1944 treaty, will be cut by 5%.

Separately, 10 Western governors urged President Joe Biden to declare a federal drought disaster in their states, qualifying farmers and ranchers to seek special assistance "beyond what is available through existing emergency programs."



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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1017  Postby Macdoc » Aug 20, 2021 1:59 am

from another forum

July 2021 was the warmest July on record.
Eight of the largest fires have occurred in the last four years.

James Hansen reports that
Abstract. Global surface temperature in 2020 was in a virtual dead-heat with 2016 for warmest
year in the period of instrumental data in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis.
The rate of global warming has accelerated in the past several years. The 2020 global temperature
was +1.3°C (~2.3°F) warmer than in the 1880-1920 base period; global temperature in that base period is a reasonable estimate of ‘pre-industrial’ temperature. The six warmest years in the GISS record all occur in the past six years, and the 10 warmest years are all in the 21st century. Growth rates of the greenhouse gases driving global warming are increasing, not declining.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailin...rature2020.pdf

The fires in Siberia are larger than all the other fires around the world combined. Some will remember the 2000 methane pingos found in Siberia years ago

Leaking pingos 'can explode under the sea in the Arctic, as well as on land'

https://siberiantimes.com/science/ca...ll-as-on-land/


This is unfolding far faster than projected...1.3C in 2021 ...2030 is optimistic for 1.5 C.
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1018  Postby Keep It Real » Aug 20, 2021 5:21 am

That's what struck me too, Macdoc. 0.2C in the next 9 years? Beyond optimistic. This year alone, (deadly) record breaking temperatures recorded around the globe, (deadly) record breaking wildfires churning yet more CO2 into the atmosphere, (deadly) record breaking flooding....some have said in recent years that Global Warming seems far away and intangible, with a strong dash of "Après moi, le déluge." In fact, that's old hat, as it's now clear as a crystal chandelier that AGW is killing thousands NOW, and accelerating to boot. Extinction Rebellion etc.....ACT NOW!
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1019  Postby Macdoc » Sep 06, 2021 2:42 am

Not good news even at 1.5 C

More than 230 journals warn 1.5°C of global warming could be 'catastrophic' for health

By Angela Dewan, CNN
Updated 0010 GMT (0810 HKT) September 6, 2021


https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/05/heal ... index.html
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Re: Climate Change Science [Strictly Moderated]

#1020  Postby Macdoc » Sep 06, 2021 6:57 am

Michael Mann weighs in

Climate scientist makes dire prediction about monster storms

Michael Mann, a lead author of the UN Climate Change report, explains the science that directly connects rising temperatures to the increased frequency and severity of major storms.


https://edition.cnn.com/videos/weather/ ... nr-vpx.cnn
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