Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
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Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#1 
by Weaver » Sep 11, 2011 2:50 am
On another forum I frequent, one populated mostly by various sorts of Law Enforcement and Military folks, someone started a thread wherein they said they'd detected a pattern in Pacific Plate earthquakes, and thought they could predict a significant quake on the North American West Coast soon.
Much
followed.
I am SO glad that most of my scientific discussions happen here rather than on other, utterly unscientific corners of the Web. I remain baffled, though, how people can be so stunningly ignorant as these folks.
My apologies for the formatting - copying this much from another forum is a real PITA.
See if you can guess my username. First one with the right answer wins one (1) Internet.
04 September 2011, 21:57Dorsai
Watch for an earthquake on the west coast in the next 6 months
I'm putting this here because there aren't any scientists putting this out, just me.
After the earthquake in Japan, I decided to take a look at the tectonic plate boundaries to see if there was anything that stood out as a common factor with the quake in New Zealand a couple of months earlier. In my amateur review, there is. The Pacific plate boundary with the Australian plate cuts right through New Zealand at Christchurch. The Japanese quake was at the boundary of the Pacific plate and the North American plate, not too far NE of the Filipino plate. At that time, I posted a caution to watch out for a quake in the Aleutians. To me, that would seem to indicate that the Pacific plate is relieving stress and it is progressing around the plate in a clockwise direction.
Since I can't claim any credentials as a geologist or other related fields, I can't and am not putting this out as a scientific opinion. However, if you live on the west coast, do yourself a favor and take a look at a map of the plates, plot the quake locations and decide for yourself it's worth it to exercise a little preparedness.
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04 September 2011, 22:40Jedi
Take a look at this USGS site.. I have been trumpeting the warning to many that if there is a significant quake in Alaska, we in California need to be very worried.
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04 September 2011, 23:49SmokeJumper
quote:
Originally posted by Jedi:
Take a look at this USGS site.. I have been trumpeting the warning to many that if there is a significant quake in Alaska, we in California need to be very worried.
Thanks for posting up that site, kinda interesting to read about the prior quakes in prior years and see a pattern, maybe. Not my area of expertise though, but still interesting.
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05 September 2011, 00:26CAMedic
LA had a 4.2 the other day.
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05 September 2011, 00:46X-ray Dave
I thought I left that EQ stuff behind when I left CA for NV. After a few quakes West of Reno, right after I moved. I re-thought my preps. Went back to what I had when I lived in Hollister. Food, water, power, sanitation, med,mutual aid network with friends ,the whole deal.
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05 September 2011, 00:49Cpl_Mir
oh snap, and i thought you were going to say that michael moore fell down (and couldn't get up) in california
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05 September 2011, 01:43LRS-1CD
I hope nothing happens when I go back home to Oakland, CA in early October. I can do without a quake...
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05 September 2011, 03:06Copecwby20
quote:
Originally posted by CAMedic:
LA had a 4.2 the other day.
PSSSHHHHH, we get bigger quakes than that here in Virginia. LOL
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05 September 2011, 17:00Davey Dooyle
Ya know... The "Ring of Fire" is always very seismically active. I think it is perfectly reasonable to take precautions and plan if you live anywhere around the Pacific Ocean.
They're just now starting to measure the rate of stress buildup on all the different fault segments. The other factor is the amount of friction between the sides of the faults.
Not too long ago, I watched a television program that detailed the seismic hazard in Christchurch, New Zealand. The expert estimated that there was a "20% chance of quake within the next 100 years." As the events of February, 2011 proved, that estimate was a bit off.
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05 September 2011, 17:11tpd223
Maybe my "beach front" property in Nevada is finally going to pay off.
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05 September 2011, 17:50Weaver
Your prediction is general enough to be guaranteed to succeed - no tight localization in either time or space, no specifics of force or damage ... it's about as good as telephone psychics come up with.
It's like saying "Watch out for a snow storm on the East Coast in the next 6 months" - predicting earthquake activity within 6 months in a region which sees literally thousands of quakes per year is hardly a prediction.
The fault stresses relieved with the quakes you cite are totally unconnected - the "progress[ion] around the plate in a clockwise direction" is not useful for analysis or predictions, it's simply coincidence and meaningless pattern.
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05 September 2011, 18:23Dorsai
Weaver,
I've got no problem being wrong. Like I said, it's not my area of expertise. I know enough to understand we've got plates. And that they move. That the movement is different in different areas of the plate edges. And that stresses build up and when they get some relief, we call it an earthquake.
My "analysis", and I use the term at least as loosely as you would in these circumstances, is purely linear. A, followed by B, thinks there might be a pattern when C shows up. That's enough to speculate that the next sequential letter might be D. I'm as specific as I can be, i.e. west coast of the US in the next 6 months and I'll add, 6.5 or greater.
I admit it, California gets lots of earthquakes and something over a 5 is pretty common. I would be very happy and not the least bit put out if my "prediction" window comes and goes without nary a tremble. I made an observation and then a projection that IF there is actually a discernible pattern, then the next earthquake is ....
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05 September 2011, 18:28Weaver
Seeing that the US receives an average of 5 quakes per year over 6.5, and that 1/4 to 1/2 of them occur on the West Coast, your "prediction" will most likely come true - but not be confirmation of any sort of pattern.
I suggest you do some research on the USGS website - they have some good information (though not the easiest to navigate to) on earthquake predictions, frequency, and interrelation of quakes.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
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05 September 2011, 20:24Crunch
Dorsai. I'm with you brother. I put nearly the same thing together myself. The east coast quake really got me worried, seemed to me a fault far away flexing from all the built up stress on the other side.
Didn't say anything though cause it sounds crazy
My call was the Alaska area. Close enough though.
...but California is after Alaska in my scenario. The plate boundary's lead that way.
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05 September 2011, 20:37Weaver
While earthquakes which release pressure at one part of a fault can create additional stress at other parts of the fault, and thereby generate nearby earthquakes in recent time frames, there is absolutely no indication or evidence that quakes on one fault can create this added stress on other faults, whether on connected or separate geologic plates.
In other words, quakes in Japan, Alaska, the US West Coast, Virginia, or New Zealand are totally unrelated. No prediction can or should be drawn from such completely separate events.
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05 September 2011, 20:39Crunch
Weaver asked for a time-line prediction of an earthquake, when the National Weather Service cant predict a hurricane it is CURRENTLY tracking.
In my book it's not a prediction. It's more like a line of domino's or a physics equation. Every action has an equal and opposite.
These major quakes are following a pattern. Can I give you a time? No. But if you see you are standing in the bus lane and everyone on the other block just got ran over by the bus coming your way, maybe you should step away.
It's your call though. Big Boy Rules and all.
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05 September 2011, 20:54Weaver
The pattern you think you see really isn't there - there is absolutely no connection between the quakes in New Zealand, Japan and anywhere else on other fault lines.
We are "programmed" to seek patterns in life, as a survival trait - but it means we tend to find false patterns in random events, especially when looking at small sample sizes and short time frames.
This is one of those false patterns. There is no bus coming down the block - it's more like one guy got hit by a bus in Reno, another person was side-swiped by a motorcycle in Moscow, and a third person fell off a skateboard in Cape Town.
And don't damn the NWS hurricane predictions - they are actually quite good at predicting tracks, somewhat less good at predicting specific strengths (due in large part to the difficult in getting accurate condition measurements near the hurricane eye), and FAR better than they were in just the near past.
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05 September 2011, 22:17R_W
Could you EVER be wrong about saying CA will get an earthquake in the next six months?
I see what you are saying, it does make intestinal sense. But that is like trying to predict global warming (or cooling) or the weather 6 months from now. Too many variables to predict the outcome.
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05 September 2011, 23:14hunteran
quote:
Originally posted by R_W:
Could you EVER be wrong about saying CA will get an earthquake in the next six months?
Nope, California has earthquakes just like the sun rises. Just part of living in CA. The fact that we haven't gotten slammed with a huge earthquake in recent years is just luck. Its gonna happen again, its only a matter of when, where and how big its gonna be.
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06 September 2011, 00:36Crunch
Oh wait, I missed this one... Nothing to see here, move along. Move along.
Major quake rocks Alaska
I guess we outguessed the best scientists on earth on nothing but dumb luck. Hey, I'll take it.
A major earthquake measuring a preliminary magnitude of 7.1 has rocked remote portions of Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey reports. The USGS issued, then canceled, a tsunami warning for Alaska's Aleutian Islands. It also lowered the magnitude to 6.8.
Updated at 11:22 a.m. ET: Alaska Native News has weighed in on the quake, noting that the area "is frequented by earthquakes every day, although a majority of them have a magnitude less than this."
The website, which describes itself as "news for the people of the last frontier," says there have been numerous quakes in the region in the past week, with most of the big ones centered off Kodiak Island, far out to sea.
Updated at 10:51 a.m. ET: It's worth noting that a 6.4 magnitude earthquake later rocked northern Argentina, but the epicenter was almost 370 miles underground. Agence France-Presse reports that there were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.
A quake measuring 7.0 hit the same sparsely populated region in January. The epicenter of that quake was also very deep and the effect at the surface was limited.
Updated at 10:26 a.m. ET: Paul Whitmore, director of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska, says the community closest to the Alaska earthquake is Atka, a village of about 60 people about 100 miles west of the epicenter. The quake was centered about 1,000 miles from Anchorage.
Updated at 10:06 a.m. ET: An aftershock measuring 4.5 hit the area about a half hour after the initial quake, the U.S. Geological Survey says. The initial quake was about 22.1 miles deep, USGS says. Earlier reports had it much closer to the surface.
Updated at 9:25 a.m. ET: The Aleutian Islands are no stranger to earthquakes. Agence France-Presse reports that the islands sit on the Pacific Ring of Fire, a "horseshoe-shaped seismic belt 25,000 miles long where most of the world's earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur."
Updated at 9:00 a.m ET: The USGS has lowered the magnitude of the quake to 6.8.
Updated at 8:50 a.m. ET: The tsunami warning was canceled after only a small wave was recorded near Atka, Alaska, the Associated Press reports. "In Atka, they had a little bump of a wave, but nothing of any kind of a destructive power. Just a wave," said Jeremy Zidek, a spokesman for the Alaska Department of Homeland Security.
Updated at 8:27 a.m. ET: The tsunami warning has been canceled.
Updated at 8:15 a.m. ET: AP reports that a woman who answered the phone at the city hall in Unalaska but declined to give her name said people at Dutch Harbor were awakened by sirens. "We have some people on high ground, but not a lot," she said. "Sirens woke us all up — everybody's moving."
Updated at 8:07 ET: CNN reports that the shallow depth of the quake -- 6.2 miles -- would make it capable of causing damage. It struck, however, in a sparsely populated part of the Aleutian Islands, the Geological Survey said.
Updated at 7:55 a.m. ET: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is urging all coastal residents within the tsunami warning area to move inland to higher ground and away from all harbours and inlets, including those directly sheltered from the sea.
People who felt the earth shake may see unusual wave action or may see the water level rising or receding. If so, they may have only a few minutes before the arrival of a tsunami, NOAA warned.
Original post: The USGS says the earthquake struck in the waters southeast of Atka, Alaska, in the north-Pacific island chain at about 6:55 a.m. ET, and there are no initial reports of injuries or damage, Reuters reports.
The tsunami warning is in effect for coastal areas of Alaska from Unimak Pass to Amchitka Pass. The areas are very remote and not heavily populated, according to Jessica Sigala, geophysicist with the USGS in Golden, Colo.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said it did not see a threat of a Pacific-wide destructive tsunami from the quake.
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06 September 2011, 00:37pira114
Hell, I HOPE Ca gets a big earthquake soon and wipes half of it out. And I live here. This place needs a cleansing of sorts.
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06 September 2011, 00:43Crunch
Perhaps we should listen to genetic programing, it's there for a reason after all.
one guy got hit by a bus in Reno while chatting with another person who was then side-swiped by a motorcycle in Moscow because of inattention, and a third person fell off a skateboard in Cape Town while watching a youtube video of some assclown in Moscow.
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06 September 2011, 04:00NataSS
Dorsai, I agree with you. I have absolutely zero geological know how but my gut is usually right. I tend to follow patterns. When one plate pushes, another gives.
The pacific rim or "ring of fire" as it is called for its large volcanic activity also wreaks of plate movements.
The Pacific coast has always had quakes. 95% of them are minor. You can barely feel them but they are there.
But after massive plate shift causing the massive psnunami in the indian ocean, then a year or two later the massive quake off of the pacific coast of south america. Then a whopper off the coast of japan.....
IMHO, The west coast is due for a hit. I cant remember the year of the big cali quake, but I remember sitting on the 35th floor of the columbia tower in seattle when that quake hit. I sat there wathing the sky line change whilst trying not to relieve myself in the process. And that one wasnt all that big.
No one can predict a big quake, but in my opinion......its coming for the west coast.
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06 September 2011, 08:48Weaver
Pattern Seeking.
Confirmation Bias.
Dunning-Krueger Effect.
It seems some things never change.
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06 September 2011, 12:28PaulR72
Sonofabitch. Two and half hours or so (off and on) because I looked up 'Dunning-Kruger effect' on Wikipedia, then got caught in the Wikipedia effect and kept clicking on further links.
So I've gone from Dunning - Kruger effect to Overconfidence Effect to the Peter Principle to Negative Selection to Mushroom management to the Software Peter Principle to Decision Theory to Black Swan Theory and I'm still going.
My brain is melting, so thanks alot for forcing me to learn Weaver
On topic, as a kiwi I can say we have always had earthquakes thanks to the good old Ring of Fire. You live with it, and most are minor but every so often we get the odd good shake like Christchurch. Prior to that our biggest was at a place called Inangahua in about 1968, and then Napier before that in about 1931 or so. When I was at primary school my hometown got hit by a swarm of them over a period of about two weeks, none bigger than about a 4.0.
Price you pay for living in Middle Earth I guess.
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06 September 2011, 19:58tpd223
You want science? I'll give you science;
Scientists Trace Heat Wave To Massive Star At Center Of Solar System
http://www.theonion.com/articl...-star-at-cent,21088/
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06 September 2011, 20:28Crunch
I love the Onion, truly Americas finest newspaper.
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06 September 2011, 23:48PaulR72
Ah, the Onion. It always makes me ell oh ell.
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07 September 2011, 02:58tpd223
That star, it's likely melting something as it heats things up, makes them more slippery, thus causing all those earthquakes.
Yes, seriously, the way I see it if that shit was frozen solid it wouldn't move at all.
I think I can get a Nobel prize for my theory, lately it seems the threshold for one of those is pretty low.
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07 September 2011, 04:06socaldsal
Just living on the west coast means it's prudent to always be prepared for any situation that can arise. I tell my buddies that an earthquake is more realistic than dealing with Mad Max scenarios. It just makes sense.
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07 September 2011, 09:28Xanthais
7/21/52 - 7.5 @ Kern County
2/9/71 - 6.6 @ San Fernando
10/1/87 - 5.9 @ Whittier Narrows
6/28/91 - 5.8 @ Sierra Madre
6/28/92 - 7.3 @ Landers
1/17/94 - 6.7 @ Northridge
10/16/99 - 7.1 @ Hector Mine
We're due.
Interesting note...none of those quakes were the dreaded San Adreas fault line. Could all of these relatively "minor" quakes that surround the SA Fault be easing the building pressure?
Source: http://www.data.scec.org/clickmap.html
Says the guy that lives in a state where there's actually SEASONS for tornadoes.
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07 September 2011, 12:01endwahl
<Dorsai
Yer outta yer lane.
Sorry, couldn't resist. That said if a meme can be spread which actually encourages preparedness in this case I don't see a problem propagating it.
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07 September 2011, 12:27thekirk
Actually, I'm with Dorsai on this one. Going by the usual interval, we're way overdue for another big one out along the faults parallel to the PNW. The last "biggie" was sometime back in the early 1700s, and they're usually on about a 250-300 year interval.
The reason we know it happened when it did? Japan got hit with a huge Tsunami, and kept records of it. There are "drowned forests" all up and down the Washington state coastline where the land dropped below sea level, and the ensuing salt bath killed the trees. It's wise to note, along with that, that the land has gradually been rising since then, and those forests are now out of the water, mostly. This, to some geologists, indicates that the pressure has been building up along the fault lines again since the last major quake.
I've done the math, and I frankly wouldn't want to be living where we've located most of our major cities in this state. Seattle and Tacoma are both in the path of the likely mud flows if Rainier pops its top in a northerly direction, there's evidence of massive tidal waves coming down the Puget Sound and slopping all the way over Lake Washington, and then there are those faults... And, of course, much of Seattle is still brick, and the seismic codes only came in during the late 1980s, when people started to figure this out. There's also the fact that much of Seattle is built on seismically poor soil, much of it being fill from when they flattened out all the hills after the big fires in the 1890s. That crap is like a bowl full of jelly, just waiting for the right set of seismic waves to hit it.
There's a reason most of the Indian tribes up here spent a lot of time enjoying themselves. Eat, drink, and be merry as a lifestyle choice makes a certain amount of sense when Mother Nature unpredictably tries killing your ass off every couple of hundred years with apocalyptic events. The whole "potlatch" idea doesn't make sense, until you factor that in. We've come here and done everything we have in a very short period of time, by comparison, and haven't had the experience of getting our shit wiped out every few generations. Geologically speaking, history tells you that we're way overdue for a big one.
Of course, we may get lucky. Same-same with the Yellowstone caldera...
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07 September 2011, 14:06Dorsai
Yeah, I know. Which is why I was so careful to explain the "pattern" I saw, and that I hadn't heard any actual experts in the field espousing any pattern predictions.
What I did find was a vast field of chirping crickets when it came to any kind of scientific predictions. They know where the plate boundaries are and how they are slipping, subsiding, etc. There is some speculation that there is a tenuous link between earthquake activity and alignment with the moon and even planetary alignments. Apparently the effect of gravity is greater on the plates than was previously assumed. Get the sun and the moon in alignment on one side (an eclipse type alignment), and maybe a few planets, and the tidal forces are much greater. If that happens to line up with fault lines at the right time, there is SPECULATION that it could trigger a quake. Speculation at this time, not proven. They are also looking into the old wives' tales of "earthquake" weather.
Anyway, with the lack of scientific predictions, I didn't think my observations and projections were that far out. IF the pattern was to have any validity, it would have to be a fairly large quake, on the west coast of North America, and within 6 months or so, though geologically, 6 months is a distinction so small as to be meaningless. 6 months, a year, 10 years, all about the same.
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09 September 2011, 15:33Xanthais
Dorsai was right. 6.4 outside of Vancouver just about 30 minutes ago.
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_d...neic_c0005rsj_l.html
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09 September 2011, 17:37Crunch
http://www.ktvu.com/weather/29133933/detail.html
I was about to report this myself. It's 6.7 now.
Once again following the line.
Once again following it in order.
Once again around a 7.0 magnitude.
Once again sheer coincidence.
When I was in Intel I learned patterns meant nothing... oh wait.
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09 September 2011, 17:45Weaver
Sure, pattern analysis means something ...
But the short pattern of a year or less and a few major earthquakes should not be construed to be more accurate or more important in terms of actual, real-world applicability than the predictions of scientists working in the field, with access to hundreds of monitoring stations recording tens of thousands of annual events.
As I pointed out with my initial response to Dorsai's post, the limits set virtually guaranteed "success" in the "prediction" - and his narrowing of the limits did nothing to change that, because he didn't narrow them enough to change anything.
Now, if you can develop a method to narrow the predictions to a single fault section, and a narrow (like 1-2 week) time period, and a specific force measurement, then you'll have something - a all-expense paid trip to Stockholm, for one thing.
But right now, all these "predictions" aren't telling anything at all, they're not "pattern analysis" because they are far below the normal noise level. All they are is throwing darts at the wall and declaring success if the floor is missed.
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09 September 2011, 19:13Dorsai
Don't be a hater!
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09 September 2011, 20:32Crunch
Tell me one (1) scientist that can do this and that man will get the Nobel Prize. Hell he would be a hero of all mankind. None can do this unfortunately.
These are not predictions, not even close. They are the investigation of a series of crimes that have already been committed, then extrapolating the criminals next target. Nothing more. IE: Gut feelings
So far it is on par, or even greater than current earthquake prediction models. Oh wait, there are really none of those... they go by one in every 10000 years or some such thing.
Since the start of the thread, two earthquakes have occurred according to the pattern, in the correct order. I would like to see a more accurate model.
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09 September 2011, 22:13palakaboy
you saying "filipino plate" made me very hungry.
I hope you're proud.
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10 September 2011, 02:57Xanthais
Weaver,
While I agree with you in that "predicting" an earthquake is tantamount to saying "There will be a shooting in SoCal in the next 6 months.", I take issue with your dismissive nature of your replies. Granted, I LIVE in SoCal, so do I WANT to see it happen? No. (well...maybe...), but regardless, I believe there's more data to support said pattern than disregard it.
That said, seismic predictions is not an exact science. Not like weather patterns or volcanic eruptions (and even those are wrong sometimes). BUT...you can measure tectonic shifts. What that means? I don't know. Totally out of my lane. Hell maybe I'm talking out my ass here, but what's the worst that can happen? People have their BoB's and enough food & water for the event?
It's not a matter of if, but when.
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10 September 2011, 05:41Weaver
quote:
Originally posted by Crunch:
Fine.
Where will the next one be, according to your "gut feelings" and "pattern"? Doesn't have to be the exact fault, or nearby in time - where is the next significant (6.5+) quake going to occur?
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10 September 2011, 07:34Sysiphus
Baja-ish....within the month.
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10 September 2011, 07:39Weaver
I have no problems with people being prepared for the eventuality of an earthquake, and with highlighting the certainty of significant quakes in fault areas. What I have a problem with, and what I'm dismissive of, is the pseudo-scientific "predictions" based on nothing more than uninformed "gut feel" and the attitude that these "predictions" are more valuable than the vast body of scientific knowledge in the matter which leads to the strong conclusion that these "predictions" are worthless.
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10 September 2011, 07:58Weaver
Here's an idea - instead of arguing over further "predictions", apply this "model" backwards in time and determine how long it holds "true" - you will find that a large number of significant quakes blow the prediction apart - like the 20110905 6.6mag in Indonesia, or the 20110903 7.0mag in Vanatu.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ear...uakes/quakes_big.php
The "pattern" you think you've detected is an illusion caused by cherry-picking the data - only taking a few events out of the overall total generates a false pattern. When looking at the overall whole, the much more random nature of the quake incidence around the fault ring becomes apparent.
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10 September 2011, 08:21Dorsai
Weaver,
Solely for the sake of argument, your argument is flawed. Indonesia is not on the Pacific plate, so its quake wouldn't be part of the model. Second, the theory that there is a progression of significant earthquakes going clockwise around the rim doesn't preclude any other quakes elsewhere, nor does it presume that ALL rim quakes have to be sequential in a clockwise pattern.
If there was a pattern that established, it would have been noticed, published and used for predictive purposes long before now.
IF there is any validity to the pattern, I merely said that there seemed to be a clockwise pattern around the plate and that it seemed to predict a significant quake on the west coast within 6 months. I never postulated that there wouldn't or couldn't be other quakes.
No one is publishing this for peer review, submission to Stockholm, etc. Simply an observation and an idea. Don't get your panties in a knot. Earthquakes are serious, this prediction is not. It is a hmmm, observation and comment.
.
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.
.
.
.
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Even if it would be enough for Al Gore to write books, go on the lecture circuit and seek substantial international legislation.
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10 September 2011, 08:26Weaver
So if you look at the quakes which progress clockwise around the plate, and ignore the quakes which don't, you detect a pattern of clockwise progression ... and this leads you to predict a significant quake within 6 months in a region which usually receives 4-8 such quakes per year.
Forget it - all this thread shows is the futility of discussing science on *********************************.
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10 September 2011, 08:45Dorsai
You're still missing the point. I stated at the beginning and repeatedly thereafter that this wasn't science. Second, just because there are events that occur outside a pattern, doesn't mean there isn't a pattern. Let me give you an example.
Lets assume we have a serial murderer. Let's say his first murder occurs at a subway station. One event, no pattern. His next murder occurs at the next stop on that route exactly 2 weeks later. Still no pattern. Exactly 2 weeks later he kills again at the next station on the route. Now we have a pattern. It may be obscured by other murders in other locations around the city, by other people, or even by the same killer. The pattern predicts that in two weeks there will be another murder at the next station on the route. It doesn't preclude other murders by other people or by the same killer at different times in different places, before or after that two week interval. That pattern still exists.
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION, NOT SCIENTIFIC PROOF, just because there are other earthquakes it doesn't mean there isn't a pattern. I merely made an observation and speculated that IF there was a pattern, then the next quake in the pattern would occur in x area within y timeframe.
I'm not disagreeing with that it appears to be impossible to predict on a scientific basis. But since scientists are predicting anything and most say they can't predict anything based on what they know, my "prediction" is just as good as theirs.
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10 September 2011, 20:37Crunch
I said nearly the same thing earlier Dorsai, but Weaver is still hung up on "scientific theory."
Weaver as your BN intel guy. Say your unit was deployed in the CA area. Said unit will be working near known fault lines.
You just got news reports that earthquakes in Japan, Alaska, Canada. in that order struck nearby.
Do you now fail to issue a sitrep warning of an alarming pattern developing in your AO just because in YOUR view it is a complete impossibility?
Once again these are not predictions. How about you go out and find the nearest tree. Wait for winter then tell me EXACTLY which leaf will fall first and where it will land.
The plates are shifting, the shockwave is heading toward that tree, a leaf will fall. After many have fallen I can give you a damn good guesstimate where I think the next ones will go.
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10 September 2011, 20:53Crunch
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
North America
Click on the "start animation" button
World Map, again click on "start animation" button
It may be my imagination but there seems to bee a pattern of quakes that start around Australia and work there way around through Asia Japan Alaska California then to South America.
Sure I'm no certified published scientist, but my fleshy viewing orbs report it to me.
All the big ones are still skipping California, but the stress is moving through the area. Does it mean that nothing is happening? No
It means it's locked up and stress continues to build, one little crank at a time. That spring catch known to fail though.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Crunch, 10 September 2011 22:17
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Weaver
Watch for an earthquake on the west coast in the next 6 months
Yet you totally missed the Vanatu quake.
You are "predicting" the obvious, with such loose standards of "success" that it is totally guaranteed. Whenever you cherry-pick your data to throw out everything which doesn't fit your "pattern", success is guaranteed.
The initial hypothesis - that shifting tensions on the Pacific Plate are causing stresses to progress around the plate in a clockwise direction, and generating significant earthquakes, is utterly flawed. Tectonic stress tensions simply do NOT work that way, and no amount of wishful thinking can make it so.
Yes, I'm hung up on "scientific theory" - because the scientific method quite simply WORKS to separate out real phenomena from a vast array of causes which can generate false conclusions. This entire discussion is a perfect example of why scientists use the scientific method, and how easy it is to fall into false conclusions based on poor data, poor data analysis, and ignorance of what is actually happening to drive the observed phenomena.
Now if you and Dorsai want to continue thinking that you've detected a real pattern, and that the quake in Vancouver is part of that pattern - go right ahead. I'm quite sure that little will change your minds (inherent in the Dunning-Krueger Effect I mentioned above).
And yes, as BN Intel guy, I would NOT issue a SITREP warning of a "pattern" - because pattern analysis doesn't simply consist of looking at a few cherry-picked elements in a short time frame - it consists of looking at the entire available data set, across the widest available periods of time, and seeing what actually happens, both short and long term. And since professional geologists and seismologists have been doing this for decades, with much better data than you have been pointing to, and have not only failed to detect the pattern you think you see, but have actively proven no such pattern exists. And based on THAT - real, provable pattern analysis - I would tell anyone worried about such a "pattern" to NOT worry, because there is nothing to worry about - that AS USUAL the US West Coast will suffer it's normal volume of quakes, but that the quakes in NZ and Japan are utterly unrelated to any US quakes.
Much
followed.I am SO glad that most of my scientific discussions happen here rather than on other, utterly unscientific corners of the Web. I remain baffled, though, how people can be so stunningly ignorant as these folks.
My apologies for the formatting - copying this much from another forum is a real PITA.
See if you can guess my username. First one with the right answer wins one (1) Internet.
04 September 2011, 21:57Dorsai
Watch for an earthquake on the west coast in the next 6 months
I'm putting this here because there aren't any scientists putting this out, just me.
After the earthquake in Japan, I decided to take a look at the tectonic plate boundaries to see if there was anything that stood out as a common factor with the quake in New Zealand a couple of months earlier. In my amateur review, there is. The Pacific plate boundary with the Australian plate cuts right through New Zealand at Christchurch. The Japanese quake was at the boundary of the Pacific plate and the North American plate, not too far NE of the Filipino plate. At that time, I posted a caution to watch out for a quake in the Aleutians. To me, that would seem to indicate that the Pacific plate is relieving stress and it is progressing around the plate in a clockwise direction.
Since I can't claim any credentials as a geologist or other related fields, I can't and am not putting this out as a scientific opinion. However, if you live on the west coast, do yourself a favor and take a look at a map of the plates, plot the quake locations and decide for yourself it's worth it to exercise a little preparedness.
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04 September 2011, 22:40Jedi
Take a look at this USGS site.. I have been trumpeting the warning to many that if there is a significant quake in Alaska, we in California need to be very worried.
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04 September 2011, 23:49SmokeJumper
quote:
Originally posted by Jedi:
Take a look at this USGS site.. I have been trumpeting the warning to many that if there is a significant quake in Alaska, we in California need to be very worried.
Thanks for posting up that site, kinda interesting to read about the prior quakes in prior years and see a pattern, maybe. Not my area of expertise though, but still interesting.
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05 September 2011, 00:26CAMedic
LA had a 4.2 the other day.
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05 September 2011, 00:46X-ray Dave
I thought I left that EQ stuff behind when I left CA for NV. After a few quakes West of Reno, right after I moved. I re-thought my preps. Went back to what I had when I lived in Hollister. Food, water, power, sanitation, med,mutual aid network with friends ,the whole deal.
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05 September 2011, 00:49Cpl_Mir
oh snap, and i thought you were going to say that michael moore fell down (and couldn't get up) in california
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05 September 2011, 01:43LRS-1CD
I hope nothing happens when I go back home to Oakland, CA in early October. I can do without a quake...
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05 September 2011, 03:06Copecwby20
quote:
Originally posted by CAMedic:
LA had a 4.2 the other day.
PSSSHHHHH, we get bigger quakes than that here in Virginia. LOL
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05 September 2011, 17:00Davey Dooyle
Ya know... The "Ring of Fire" is always very seismically active. I think it is perfectly reasonable to take precautions and plan if you live anywhere around the Pacific Ocean.
They're just now starting to measure the rate of stress buildup on all the different fault segments. The other factor is the amount of friction between the sides of the faults.
Not too long ago, I watched a television program that detailed the seismic hazard in Christchurch, New Zealand. The expert estimated that there was a "20% chance of quake within the next 100 years." As the events of February, 2011 proved, that estimate was a bit off.
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05 September 2011, 17:11tpd223
Maybe my "beach front" property in Nevada is finally going to pay off.
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05 September 2011, 17:50Weaver
Originally posted by Dorsai:
I'm putting this here because there aren't any scientists putting this out, just me.
After the earthquake in Japan, I decided to take a look at the tectonic plate boundaries to see if there was anything that stood out as a common factor with the quake in New Zealand a couple of months earlier. In my amateur review, there is. The Pacific plate boundary with the Australian plate cuts right through New Zealand at Christchurch. The Japanese quake was at the boundary of the Pacific plate and the North American plate, not too far NE of the Filipino plate. At that time, I posted a caution to watch out for a quake in the Aleutians. To me, that would seem to indicate that the Pacific plate is relieving stress and it is progressing around the plate in a clockwise direction.
Since I can't claim any credentials as a geologist or other related fields, I can't and am not putting this out as a scientific opinion. However, if you live on the west coast, do yourself a favor and take a look at a map of the plates, plot the quake locations and decide for yourself it's worth it to exercise a little preparedness.
Your prediction is general enough to be guaranteed to succeed - no tight localization in either time or space, no specifics of force or damage ... it's about as good as telephone psychics come up with.
It's like saying "Watch out for a snow storm on the East Coast in the next 6 months" - predicting earthquake activity within 6 months in a region which sees literally thousands of quakes per year is hardly a prediction.
The fault stresses relieved with the quakes you cite are totally unconnected - the "progress[ion] around the plate in a clockwise direction" is not useful for analysis or predictions, it's simply coincidence and meaningless pattern.
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05 September 2011, 18:23Dorsai
Weaver,
I've got no problem being wrong. Like I said, it's not my area of expertise. I know enough to understand we've got plates. And that they move. That the movement is different in different areas of the plate edges. And that stresses build up and when they get some relief, we call it an earthquake.
My "analysis", and I use the term at least as loosely as you would in these circumstances, is purely linear. A, followed by B, thinks there might be a pattern when C shows up. That's enough to speculate that the next sequential letter might be D. I'm as specific as I can be, i.e. west coast of the US in the next 6 months and I'll add, 6.5 or greater.
I admit it, California gets lots of earthquakes and something over a 5 is pretty common. I would be very happy and not the least bit put out if my "prediction" window comes and goes without nary a tremble. I made an observation and then a projection that IF there is actually a discernible pattern, then the next earthquake is ....
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05 September 2011, 18:28Weaver
Seeing that the US receives an average of 5 quakes per year over 6.5, and that 1/4 to 1/2 of them occur on the West Coast, your "prediction" will most likely come true - but not be confirmation of any sort of pattern.
I suggest you do some research on the USGS website - they have some good information (though not the easiest to navigate to) on earthquake predictions, frequency, and interrelation of quakes.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
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05 September 2011, 20:24Crunch
Dorsai. I'm with you brother. I put nearly the same thing together myself. The east coast quake really got me worried, seemed to me a fault far away flexing from all the built up stress on the other side.
Didn't say anything though cause it sounds crazy
My call was the Alaska area. Close enough though.
...but California is after Alaska in my scenario. The plate boundary's lead that way.
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05 September 2011, 20:37Weaver
While earthquakes which release pressure at one part of a fault can create additional stress at other parts of the fault, and thereby generate nearby earthquakes in recent time frames, there is absolutely no indication or evidence that quakes on one fault can create this added stress on other faults, whether on connected or separate geologic plates.
In other words, quakes in Japan, Alaska, the US West Coast, Virginia, or New Zealand are totally unrelated. No prediction can or should be drawn from such completely separate events.
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05 September 2011, 20:39Crunch
Weaver asked for a time-line prediction of an earthquake, when the National Weather Service cant predict a hurricane it is CURRENTLY tracking.
In my book it's not a prediction. It's more like a line of domino's or a physics equation. Every action has an equal and opposite.
These major quakes are following a pattern. Can I give you a time? No. But if you see you are standing in the bus lane and everyone on the other block just got ran over by the bus coming your way, maybe you should step away.
It's your call though. Big Boy Rules and all.
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05 September 2011, 20:54Weaver
The pattern you think you see really isn't there - there is absolutely no connection between the quakes in New Zealand, Japan and anywhere else on other fault lines.
We are "programmed" to seek patterns in life, as a survival trait - but it means we tend to find false patterns in random events, especially when looking at small sample sizes and short time frames.
This is one of those false patterns. There is no bus coming down the block - it's more like one guy got hit by a bus in Reno, another person was side-swiped by a motorcycle in Moscow, and a third person fell off a skateboard in Cape Town.
And don't damn the NWS hurricane predictions - they are actually quite good at predicting tracks, somewhat less good at predicting specific strengths (due in large part to the difficult in getting accurate condition measurements near the hurricane eye), and FAR better than they were in just the near past.
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05 September 2011, 22:17R_W
Could you EVER be wrong about saying CA will get an earthquake in the next six months?
I see what you are saying, it does make intestinal sense. But that is like trying to predict global warming (or cooling) or the weather 6 months from now. Too many variables to predict the outcome.
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05 September 2011, 23:14hunteran
quote:
Originally posted by R_W:
Could you EVER be wrong about saying CA will get an earthquake in the next six months?
Nope, California has earthquakes just like the sun rises. Just part of living in CA. The fact that we haven't gotten slammed with a huge earthquake in recent years is just luck. Its gonna happen again, its only a matter of when, where and how big its gonna be.
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06 September 2011, 00:36Crunch
Oh wait, I missed this one... Nothing to see here, move along. Move along.
Major quake rocks Alaska
I guess we outguessed the best scientists on earth on nothing but dumb luck. Hey, I'll take it.
A major earthquake measuring a preliminary magnitude of 7.1 has rocked remote portions of Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey reports. The USGS issued, then canceled, a tsunami warning for Alaska's Aleutian Islands. It also lowered the magnitude to 6.8.
Updated at 11:22 a.m. ET: Alaska Native News has weighed in on the quake, noting that the area "is frequented by earthquakes every day, although a majority of them have a magnitude less than this."
The website, which describes itself as "news for the people of the last frontier," says there have been numerous quakes in the region in the past week, with most of the big ones centered off Kodiak Island, far out to sea.
Updated at 10:51 a.m. ET: It's worth noting that a 6.4 magnitude earthquake later rocked northern Argentina, but the epicenter was almost 370 miles underground. Agence France-Presse reports that there were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.
A quake measuring 7.0 hit the same sparsely populated region in January. The epicenter of that quake was also very deep and the effect at the surface was limited.
Updated at 10:26 a.m. ET: Paul Whitmore, director of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska, says the community closest to the Alaska earthquake is Atka, a village of about 60 people about 100 miles west of the epicenter. The quake was centered about 1,000 miles from Anchorage.
Updated at 10:06 a.m. ET: An aftershock measuring 4.5 hit the area about a half hour after the initial quake, the U.S. Geological Survey says. The initial quake was about 22.1 miles deep, USGS says. Earlier reports had it much closer to the surface.
Updated at 9:25 a.m. ET: The Aleutian Islands are no stranger to earthquakes. Agence France-Presse reports that the islands sit on the Pacific Ring of Fire, a "horseshoe-shaped seismic belt 25,000 miles long where most of the world's earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur."
Updated at 9:00 a.m ET: The USGS has lowered the magnitude of the quake to 6.8.
Updated at 8:50 a.m. ET: The tsunami warning was canceled after only a small wave was recorded near Atka, Alaska, the Associated Press reports. "In Atka, they had a little bump of a wave, but nothing of any kind of a destructive power. Just a wave," said Jeremy Zidek, a spokesman for the Alaska Department of Homeland Security.
Updated at 8:27 a.m. ET: The tsunami warning has been canceled.
Updated at 8:15 a.m. ET: AP reports that a woman who answered the phone at the city hall in Unalaska but declined to give her name said people at Dutch Harbor were awakened by sirens. "We have some people on high ground, but not a lot," she said. "Sirens woke us all up — everybody's moving."
Updated at 8:07 ET: CNN reports that the shallow depth of the quake -- 6.2 miles -- would make it capable of causing damage. It struck, however, in a sparsely populated part of the Aleutian Islands, the Geological Survey said.
Updated at 7:55 a.m. ET: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is urging all coastal residents within the tsunami warning area to move inland to higher ground and away from all harbours and inlets, including those directly sheltered from the sea.
People who felt the earth shake may see unusual wave action or may see the water level rising or receding. If so, they may have only a few minutes before the arrival of a tsunami, NOAA warned.
Original post: The USGS says the earthquake struck in the waters southeast of Atka, Alaska, in the north-Pacific island chain at about 6:55 a.m. ET, and there are no initial reports of injuries or damage, Reuters reports.
The tsunami warning is in effect for coastal areas of Alaska from Unimak Pass to Amchitka Pass. The areas are very remote and not heavily populated, according to Jessica Sigala, geophysicist with the USGS in Golden, Colo.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said it did not see a threat of a Pacific-wide destructive tsunami from the quake.
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06 September 2011, 00:37pira114
Hell, I HOPE Ca gets a big earthquake soon and wipes half of it out. And I live here. This place needs a cleansing of sorts.
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06 September 2011, 00:43Crunch
We are "programmed" to seek patterns in life, as a survival trait
Perhaps we should listen to genetic programing, it's there for a reason after all.
one guy got hit by a bus in Reno while chatting with another person who was then side-swiped by a motorcycle in Moscow because of inattention, and a third person fell off a skateboard in Cape Town while watching a youtube video of some assclown in Moscow.
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06 September 2011, 04:00NataSS
Dorsai, I agree with you. I have absolutely zero geological know how but my gut is usually right. I tend to follow patterns. When one plate pushes, another gives.
The pacific rim or "ring of fire" as it is called for its large volcanic activity also wreaks of plate movements.
The Pacific coast has always had quakes. 95% of them are minor. You can barely feel them but they are there.
But after massive plate shift causing the massive psnunami in the indian ocean, then a year or two later the massive quake off of the pacific coast of south america. Then a whopper off the coast of japan.....
IMHO, The west coast is due for a hit. I cant remember the year of the big cali quake, but I remember sitting on the 35th floor of the columbia tower in seattle when that quake hit. I sat there wathing the sky line change whilst trying not to relieve myself in the process. And that one wasnt all that big.
No one can predict a big quake, but in my opinion......its coming for the west coast.
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06 September 2011, 08:48Weaver
Pattern Seeking.
Confirmation Bias.
Dunning-Krueger Effect.
It seems some things never change.
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06 September 2011, 12:28PaulR72
Sonofabitch. Two and half hours or so (off and on) because I looked up 'Dunning-Kruger effect' on Wikipedia, then got caught in the Wikipedia effect and kept clicking on further links.
So I've gone from Dunning - Kruger effect to Overconfidence Effect to the Peter Principle to Negative Selection to Mushroom management to the Software Peter Principle to Decision Theory to Black Swan Theory and I'm still going.
My brain is melting, so thanks alot for forcing me to learn Weaver
On topic, as a kiwi I can say we have always had earthquakes thanks to the good old Ring of Fire. You live with it, and most are minor but every so often we get the odd good shake like Christchurch. Prior to that our biggest was at a place called Inangahua in about 1968, and then Napier before that in about 1931 or so. When I was at primary school my hometown got hit by a swarm of them over a period of about two weeks, none bigger than about a 4.0.
Price you pay for living in Middle Earth I guess.
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06 September 2011, 19:58tpd223
You want science? I'll give you science;
Scientists Trace Heat Wave To Massive Star At Center Of Solar System
http://www.theonion.com/articl...-star-at-cent,21088/
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06 September 2011, 20:28Crunch
I love the Onion, truly Americas finest newspaper.
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06 September 2011, 23:48PaulR72
Ah, the Onion. It always makes me ell oh ell.
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07 September 2011, 02:58tpd223
That star, it's likely melting something as it heats things up, makes them more slippery, thus causing all those earthquakes.
Yes, seriously, the way I see it if that shit was frozen solid it wouldn't move at all.
I think I can get a Nobel prize for my theory, lately it seems the threshold for one of those is pretty low.
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07 September 2011, 04:06socaldsal
Just living on the west coast means it's prudent to always be prepared for any situation that can arise. I tell my buddies that an earthquake is more realistic than dealing with Mad Max scenarios. It just makes sense.
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07 September 2011, 09:28Xanthais
7/21/52 - 7.5 @ Kern County
2/9/71 - 6.6 @ San Fernando
10/1/87 - 5.9 @ Whittier Narrows
6/28/91 - 5.8 @ Sierra Madre
6/28/92 - 7.3 @ Landers
1/17/94 - 6.7 @ Northridge
10/16/99 - 7.1 @ Hector Mine
We're due.
Interesting note...none of those quakes were the dreaded San Adreas fault line. Could all of these relatively "minor" quakes that surround the SA Fault be easing the building pressure?
Source: http://www.data.scec.org/clickmap.html
Originally posted by R_W:
Could you EVER be wrong about saying CA will get an earthquake in the next six months?
Says the guy that lives in a state where there's actually SEASONS for tornadoes.
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07 September 2011, 12:01endwahl
<Dorsai
Yer outta yer lane.
Sorry, couldn't resist. That said if a meme can be spread which actually encourages preparedness in this case I don't see a problem propagating it.
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07 September 2011, 12:27thekirk
Actually, I'm with Dorsai on this one. Going by the usual interval, we're way overdue for another big one out along the faults parallel to the PNW. The last "biggie" was sometime back in the early 1700s, and they're usually on about a 250-300 year interval.
The reason we know it happened when it did? Japan got hit with a huge Tsunami, and kept records of it. There are "drowned forests" all up and down the Washington state coastline where the land dropped below sea level, and the ensuing salt bath killed the trees. It's wise to note, along with that, that the land has gradually been rising since then, and those forests are now out of the water, mostly. This, to some geologists, indicates that the pressure has been building up along the fault lines again since the last major quake.
I've done the math, and I frankly wouldn't want to be living where we've located most of our major cities in this state. Seattle and Tacoma are both in the path of the likely mud flows if Rainier pops its top in a northerly direction, there's evidence of massive tidal waves coming down the Puget Sound and slopping all the way over Lake Washington, and then there are those faults... And, of course, much of Seattle is still brick, and the seismic codes only came in during the late 1980s, when people started to figure this out. There's also the fact that much of Seattle is built on seismically poor soil, much of it being fill from when they flattened out all the hills after the big fires in the 1890s. That crap is like a bowl full of jelly, just waiting for the right set of seismic waves to hit it.
There's a reason most of the Indian tribes up here spent a lot of time enjoying themselves. Eat, drink, and be merry as a lifestyle choice makes a certain amount of sense when Mother Nature unpredictably tries killing your ass off every couple of hundred years with apocalyptic events. The whole "potlatch" idea doesn't make sense, until you factor that in. We've come here and done everything we have in a very short period of time, by comparison, and haven't had the experience of getting our shit wiped out every few generations. Geologically speaking, history tells you that we're way overdue for a big one.
Of course, we may get lucky. Same-same with the Yellowstone caldera...
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07 September 2011, 14:06Dorsai
:
Originally posted by endwahl:
<Dorsai
Yer outta yer lane.
Sorry, couldn't resist. That said if a meme can be spread which actually encourages preparedness in this case I don't see a problem propagating it.
Yeah, I know. Which is why I was so careful to explain the "pattern" I saw, and that I hadn't heard any actual experts in the field espousing any pattern predictions.
What I did find was a vast field of chirping crickets when it came to any kind of scientific predictions. They know where the plate boundaries are and how they are slipping, subsiding, etc. There is some speculation that there is a tenuous link between earthquake activity and alignment with the moon and even planetary alignments. Apparently the effect of gravity is greater on the plates than was previously assumed. Get the sun and the moon in alignment on one side (an eclipse type alignment), and maybe a few planets, and the tidal forces are much greater. If that happens to line up with fault lines at the right time, there is SPECULATION that it could trigger a quake. Speculation at this time, not proven. They are also looking into the old wives' tales of "earthquake" weather.
Anyway, with the lack of scientific predictions, I didn't think my observations and projections were that far out. IF the pattern was to have any validity, it would have to be a fairly large quake, on the west coast of North America, and within 6 months or so, though geologically, 6 months is a distinction so small as to be meaningless. 6 months, a year, 10 years, all about the same.
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09 September 2011, 15:33Xanthais
Dorsai was right. 6.4 outside of Vancouver just about 30 minutes ago.
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_d...neic_c0005rsj_l.html
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09 September 2011, 17:37Crunch
http://www.ktvu.com/weather/29133933/detail.html
I was about to report this myself. It's 6.7 now.
Once again following the line.
Once again following it in order.
Once again around a 7.0 magnitude.
Once again sheer coincidence.
When I was in Intel I learned patterns meant nothing... oh wait.
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09 September 2011, 17:45Weaver
Sure, pattern analysis means something ...
But the short pattern of a year or less and a few major earthquakes should not be construed to be more accurate or more important in terms of actual, real-world applicability than the predictions of scientists working in the field, with access to hundreds of monitoring stations recording tens of thousands of annual events.
As I pointed out with my initial response to Dorsai's post, the limits set virtually guaranteed "success" in the "prediction" - and his narrowing of the limits did nothing to change that, because he didn't narrow them enough to change anything.
Now, if you can develop a method to narrow the predictions to a single fault section, and a narrow (like 1-2 week) time period, and a specific force measurement, then you'll have something - a all-expense paid trip to Stockholm, for one thing.
But right now, all these "predictions" aren't telling anything at all, they're not "pattern analysis" because they are far below the normal noise level. All they are is throwing darts at the wall and declaring success if the floor is missed.
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09 September 2011, 19:13Dorsai
Don't be a hater!
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09 September 2011, 20:32Crunch
Now, if you can develop a method to narrow the predictions to a single fault section, and a narrow (like 1-2 week) time period, and a specific force measurement, then you'll have something
Tell me one (1) scientist that can do this and that man will get the Nobel Prize. Hell he would be a hero of all mankind. None can do this unfortunately.
These are not predictions, not even close. They are the investigation of a series of crimes that have already been committed, then extrapolating the criminals next target. Nothing more. IE: Gut feelings
So far it is on par, or even greater than current earthquake prediction models. Oh wait, there are really none of those... they go by one in every 10000 years or some such thing.
Since the start of the thread, two earthquakes have occurred according to the pattern, in the correct order. I would like to see a more accurate model.
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09 September 2011, 22:13palakaboy
you saying "filipino plate" made me very hungry.
I hope you're proud.
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10 September 2011, 02:57Xanthais
Weaver,
While I agree with you in that "predicting" an earthquake is tantamount to saying "There will be a shooting in SoCal in the next 6 months.", I take issue with your dismissive nature of your replies. Granted, I LIVE in SoCal, so do I WANT to see it happen? No. (well...maybe...), but regardless, I believe there's more data to support said pattern than disregard it.
That said, seismic predictions is not an exact science. Not like weather patterns or volcanic eruptions (and even those are wrong sometimes). BUT...you can measure tectonic shifts. What that means? I don't know. Totally out of my lane. Hell maybe I'm talking out my ass here, but what's the worst that can happen? People have their BoB's and enough food & water for the event?
It's not a matter of if, but when.
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10 September 2011, 05:41Weaver
quote:
Originally posted by Crunch:
Now, if you can develop a method to narrow the predictions to a single fault section, and a narrow (like 1-2 week) time period, and a specific force measurement, then you'll have something
Tell me one (1) scientist that can do this and that man will get the Nobel Prize. Hell he would be a hero of all mankind. None can do this unfortunately.
These are not predictions, not even close. They are the investigation of a series of crimes that have already been committed, then extrapolating the criminals next target. Nothing more. IE: Gut feelings
So far it is on par, or even greater than current earthquake prediction models. Oh wait, there are really none of those... they go by one in every 10000 years or some such thing.
Since the start of the thread, two earthquakes have occurred according to the pattern, in the correct order. I would like to see a more accurate model.
Fine.
Where will the next one be, according to your "gut feelings" and "pattern"? Doesn't have to be the exact fault, or nearby in time - where is the next significant (6.5+) quake going to occur?
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10 September 2011, 07:34Sysiphus
Baja-ish....within the month.
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10 September 2011, 07:39Weaver
Originally posted by Xanthais:
Weaver,
While I agree with you in that "predicting" an earthquake is tantamount to saying "There will be a shooting in SoCal in the next 6 months.", I take issue with your dismissive nature of your replies. Granted, I LIVE in SoCal, so do I WANT to see it happen? No. (well...maybe...), but regardless, I believe there's more data to support said pattern than disregard it.
That said, seismic predictions is not an exact science. Not like weather patterns or volcanic eruptions (and even those are wrong sometimes). BUT...you can measure tectonic shifts. What that means? I don't know. Totally out of my lane. Hell maybe I'm talking out my ass here, but what's the worst that can happen? People have their BoB's and enough food & water for the event?
It's not a matter of if, but when.
I have no problems with people being prepared for the eventuality of an earthquake, and with highlighting the certainty of significant quakes in fault areas. What I have a problem with, and what I'm dismissive of, is the pseudo-scientific "predictions" based on nothing more than uninformed "gut feel" and the attitude that these "predictions" are more valuable than the vast body of scientific knowledge in the matter which leads to the strong conclusion that these "predictions" are worthless.
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10 September 2011, 07:58Weaver
Here's an idea - instead of arguing over further "predictions", apply this "model" backwards in time and determine how long it holds "true" - you will find that a large number of significant quakes blow the prediction apart - like the 20110905 6.6mag in Indonesia, or the 20110903 7.0mag in Vanatu.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ear...uakes/quakes_big.php
The "pattern" you think you've detected is an illusion caused by cherry-picking the data - only taking a few events out of the overall total generates a false pattern. When looking at the overall whole, the much more random nature of the quake incidence around the fault ring becomes apparent.
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10 September 2011, 08:21Dorsai
Weaver,
Solely for the sake of argument, your argument is flawed. Indonesia is not on the Pacific plate, so its quake wouldn't be part of the model. Second, the theory that there is a progression of significant earthquakes going clockwise around the rim doesn't preclude any other quakes elsewhere, nor does it presume that ALL rim quakes have to be sequential in a clockwise pattern.
If there was a pattern that established, it would have been noticed, published and used for predictive purposes long before now.
IF there is any validity to the pattern, I merely said that there seemed to be a clockwise pattern around the plate and that it seemed to predict a significant quake on the west coast within 6 months. I never postulated that there wouldn't or couldn't be other quakes.
No one is publishing this for peer review, submission to Stockholm, etc. Simply an observation and an idea. Don't get your panties in a knot. Earthquakes are serious, this prediction is not. It is a hmmm, observation and comment.
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Even if it would be enough for Al Gore to write books, go on the lecture circuit and seek substantial international legislation.
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10 September 2011, 08:26Weaver
So if you look at the quakes which progress clockwise around the plate, and ignore the quakes which don't, you detect a pattern of clockwise progression ... and this leads you to predict a significant quake within 6 months in a region which usually receives 4-8 such quakes per year.
Forget it - all this thread shows is the futility of discussing science on *********************************.
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10 September 2011, 08:45Dorsai
You're still missing the point. I stated at the beginning and repeatedly thereafter that this wasn't science. Second, just because there are events that occur outside a pattern, doesn't mean there isn't a pattern. Let me give you an example.
Lets assume we have a serial murderer. Let's say his first murder occurs at a subway station. One event, no pattern. His next murder occurs at the next stop on that route exactly 2 weeks later. Still no pattern. Exactly 2 weeks later he kills again at the next station on the route. Now we have a pattern. It may be obscured by other murders in other locations around the city, by other people, or even by the same killer. The pattern predicts that in two weeks there will be another murder at the next station on the route. It doesn't preclude other murders by other people or by the same killer at different times in different places, before or after that two week interval. That pattern still exists.
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS DISCUSSION, NOT SCIENTIFIC PROOF, just because there are other earthquakes it doesn't mean there isn't a pattern. I merely made an observation and speculated that IF there was a pattern, then the next quake in the pattern would occur in x area within y timeframe.
I'm not disagreeing with that it appears to be impossible to predict on a scientific basis. But since scientists are predicting anything and most say they can't predict anything based on what they know, my "prediction" is just as good as theirs.
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10 September 2011, 20:37Crunch
I said nearly the same thing earlier Dorsai, but Weaver is still hung up on "scientific theory."
Weaver as your BN intel guy. Say your unit was deployed in the CA area. Said unit will be working near known fault lines.
You just got news reports that earthquakes in Japan, Alaska, Canada. in that order struck nearby.
Do you now fail to issue a sitrep warning of an alarming pattern developing in your AO just because in YOUR view it is a complete impossibility?
Once again these are not predictions. How about you go out and find the nearest tree. Wait for winter then tell me EXACTLY which leaf will fall first and where it will land.
The plates are shifting, the shockwave is heading toward that tree, a leaf will fall. After many have fallen I can give you a damn good guesstimate where I think the next ones will go.
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10 September 2011, 20:53Crunch
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
North America
Click on the "start animation" button
World Map, again click on "start animation" button
It may be my imagination but there seems to bee a pattern of quakes that start around Australia and work there way around through Asia Japan Alaska California then to South America.
Sure I'm no certified published scientist, but my fleshy viewing orbs report it to me.
All the big ones are still skipping California, but the stress is moving through the area. Does it mean that nothing is happening? No
It means it's locked up and stress continues to build, one little crank at a time. That spring catch known to fail though.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: Crunch, 10 September 2011 22:17
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Weaver
Watch for an earthquake on the west coast in the next 6 months
Originally posted by Crunch:
I said nearly the same thing earlier Dorsai, but Weaver is still hung up on "scientific theory."
Weaver as your BN intel guy. Say your unit was deployed in the CA area. Said unit will be working near known fault lines.
You just got news reports that earthquakes in Japan, Alaska, Canada. in that order struck nearby.
Do you now fail to issue a sitrep warning of an alarming pattern developing in your AO just because in YOUR view it is a complete impossibility?
Once again these are not predictions. How about you go out and find the nearest tree. Wait for winter then tell me EXACTLY which leaf will fall first and where it will land.
The plates are shifting, the shockwave is heading toward that tree, a leaf will fall. After many have fallen I can give you a damn good guesstimate where I think the next ones will go.
Yet you totally missed the Vanatu quake.
You are "predicting" the obvious, with such loose standards of "success" that it is totally guaranteed. Whenever you cherry-pick your data to throw out everything which doesn't fit your "pattern", success is guaranteed.
The initial hypothesis - that shifting tensions on the Pacific Plate are causing stresses to progress around the plate in a clockwise direction, and generating significant earthquakes, is utterly flawed. Tectonic stress tensions simply do NOT work that way, and no amount of wishful thinking can make it so.
Yes, I'm hung up on "scientific theory" - because the scientific method quite simply WORKS to separate out real phenomena from a vast array of causes which can generate false conclusions. This entire discussion is a perfect example of why scientists use the scientific method, and how easy it is to fall into false conclusions based on poor data, poor data analysis, and ignorance of what is actually happening to drive the observed phenomena.
Now if you and Dorsai want to continue thinking that you've detected a real pattern, and that the quake in Vancouver is part of that pattern - go right ahead. I'm quite sure that little will change your minds (inherent in the Dunning-Krueger Effect I mentioned above).
And yes, as BN Intel guy, I would NOT issue a SITREP warning of a "pattern" - because pattern analysis doesn't simply consist of looking at a few cherry-picked elements in a short time frame - it consists of looking at the entire available data set, across the widest available periods of time, and seeing what actually happens, both short and long term. And since professional geologists and seismologists have been doing this for decades, with much better data than you have been pointing to, and have not only failed to detect the pattern you think you see, but have actively proven no such pattern exists. And based on THAT - real, provable pattern analysis - I would tell anyone worried about such a "pattern" to NOT worry, because there is nothing to worry about - that AS USUAL the US West Coast will suffer it's normal volume of quakes, but that the quakes in NZ and Japan are utterly unrelated to any US quakes.
Retired AiF
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#2 by Ihavenofingerprints » Sep 11, 2011 3:18 am
Complete pseudoscience 
When he is watching football and sees two touchdowns scored:
----------t1---------t2------------------------------
Does he automatically assume the 3rd one is going to occur at t3?
----------t1---------t2--------t3-------------------
The pattern is clearly there. So it must be right.
When he is watching football and sees two touchdowns scored:
----------t1---------t2------------------------------
Does he automatically assume the 3rd one is going to occur at t3?
----------t1---------t2--------t3-------------------
The pattern is clearly there. So it must be right.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#3 by Onyx8 » Sep 11, 2011 6:57 am
My commiserations Weaver.
We just had a 6.7 off the west coast of my island.
We just had a 6.7 off the west coast of my island.
The problem with fantasies is you can't really insist that everyone else believes in yours, the other problem with fantasies is that most believers of fantasies eventually get around to doing exactly that.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#4 by Weaver » Sep 11, 2011 11:58 am
Yeah, that's the Vancouver Island one which "confirmed" the "prediction" of the idiots.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#5 by cavarka9 » Sep 11, 2011 12:04 pm
you are not original with the names are you, me neither. cant remember too many alias name can I?. Wud be easy enough to track me down for any fool 
well, I have always felt that we are not limited by our compassion or by our passion or resources but by our economy.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#6 by Weaver » Sep 11, 2011 12:08 pm
Well, given that my "alias" is my real last name ...
I decided a while back to avoid forum anonymity; thought it would make me choose my words more carefully.
I decided a while back to avoid forum anonymity; thought it would make me choose my words more carefully.
Retired AiF
"Life in Lubbock, Texas, taught me two things: One is that God loves you and you’re going to burn in Hell. The other is that sex is the most awful, filthy thing on Earth and you should save it for someone you love." Butch Hancock.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#7 by cavarka9 » Sep 11, 2011 12:15 pm
I dont think your superiors will be happy with ur online life though. just asking, they must have given guidelines right?
well, I have always felt that we are not limited by our compassion or by our passion or resources but by our economy.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#8 by Weaver » Sep 11, 2011 12:19 pm
Yeah, there are guidelines - I haven't ever violated any of them. I'm quite careful about what I write about my day job, and when I was deployed I made very sure that nothing I posted anywhere could endanger anyone or release info that was best held quiet (like one of our guys getting killed, before the family was notified).
Retired AiF
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#9 by cavarka9 » Sep 11, 2011 12:24 pm
Weaver wrote:Yeah, there are guidelines - I haven't ever violated any of them. I'm quite careful about what I write about my day job, and when I was deployed I made very sure that nothing I posted anywhere could endanger anyone or release info that was best held quiet (like one of our guys getting killed, before the family was notified).
i think u have to change ur name or delete ur earlier post informing that ... Terrorists are internet savvy too.
well, I have always felt that we are not limited by our compassion or by our passion or resources but by our economy.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#10 by Weaver » Sep 11, 2011 12:28 pm
I know they are - I haven't ever discussed anything that isn't open-source already.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#11 by cavarka9 » Sep 11, 2011 12:43 pm
ok, take care
well, I have always felt that we are not limited by our compassion or by our passion or resources but by our economy.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#12 by SafeAsMilk » Sep 11, 2011 1:10 pm
Currently doing the dive on the Dunning-Kruger Wikipedia wormhole. Fascinating stuff.
I don't know if the discussion went any further, and I don't know enough about where the fault lines are to say, but his "pattern" could be easily disproved if there was another quake, of any size (best if it's the size he's predicted), anywhere else along the fault line that didn't go in the direction he predicted. Has this happened?
I don't know if the discussion went any further, and I don't know enough about where the fault lines are to say, but his "pattern" could be easily disproved if there was another quake, of any size (best if it's the size he's predicted), anywhere else along the fault line that didn't go in the direction he predicted. Has this happened?
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#13 by Weaver » Sep 11, 2011 1:14 pm
Yeah, the 7.0 quake on Vanatu totally disproves the "prediction" - but then they said that while they had noticed a clockwise progression, that didn't mean ALL quakes would follow the clockwise progression - so, in other words, the ones that fit their prediction are proof of the hypothesis, and anything not fitting the prediction are tossed out as irrelevant. Classic cherry-picking.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#14 by SafeAsMilk » Sep 11, 2011 1:35 pm
Weaver wrote:Yeah, the 7.0 quake on Vanatu totally disproves the "prediction" - but then they said that while they had noticed a clockwise progression, that didn't mean ALL quakes would follow the clockwise progression - so, in other words, the ones that fit their prediction are proof of the hypothesis, and anything not fitting the prediction are tossed out as irrelevant. Classic cherry-picking.
Yeah, that's about as clear-cut cherry-picking as you can get.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#15 by Onyx8 » Sep 11, 2011 3:46 pm
Completely off topic, but Weaver, what are those guys doing? Do they have some sort of heads-up display or something? Or is the light too bright?
The problem with fantasies is you can't really insist that everyone else believes in yours, the other problem with fantasies is that most believers of fantasies eventually get around to doing exactly that.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#16 by Weaver » Sep 11, 2011 6:24 pm
Nah - they have regular goggles, and they seem to be doing some sort of demonstration, maybe something riot-control oriented about blocking a strike toward the head. Whatever the hell it is, it's stupid in the extreme. I'm not aware of any tactical or technical reason to assume that pose.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#17 by SafeAsMilk » Sep 11, 2011 8:00 pm
Weaver wrote:Nah - they have regular goggles, and they seem to be doing some sort of demonstration, maybe something riot-control oriented about blocking a strike toward the head. Whatever the hell it is, it's stupid in the extreme. I'm not aware of any tactical or technical reason to assume that pose.
Perhaps for the lulz
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#18 by Onyx8 » Sep 12, 2011 12:14 am
Maybe the sgt just said something facepalm worthy!!
The problem with fantasies is you can't really insist that everyone else believes in yours, the other problem with fantasies is that most believers of fantasies eventually get around to doing exactly that.
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#19 by FACT-MAN-2 » Jan 06, 2012 7:18 am
Onyx8 wrote:Maybe the sgt just said something facepalm worthy!!
No doubt possible.
But that stance doesn't ring up in my soldierly background, which I'll admit is a bit dated, although, once an infantryman, always an infantryman.
I grew up in Southern California, where earthquakes are common as Apple Pie, some small, some big, some really big. This background gave me what can't amount to more than a passing interest in earthquake prediction science, but I have done some reading on the topic.
But given what I understand about the geology of Earth's crust and plate tectonics I've never thought that predicting earthquakes could become a very reliable process featuring exacting position fixing.
I do suppose it's technically feasible to identify, measure, plot, and recognize trends in distributions on a global scale and do so over a sufficient period of time to get a fairly big dataset recorded. And from that I'd assume some predictive modelling might be done. But without high specificity in locational fixing, I don't think predictions that general in nature would serve populations in a way that protects them from ground shaking.
Of course, in California we relied upon a natural phenomenon that seems to attend earthquakes, that of things going silent, birds not flying (or singing), dogs going under houses, and the sky becoming overcast and dull.
"Earthqauke weather" we called it, and then, when things went quiet and the birds stopped flying and singing, we'd get the hell out of the house into a broad open area and wait it out. Sometimes a quake would come, usually not severe, other times not. But it happened often enough that we came to trust earthquake weather as a predictor.
There's also a unique odour that passes through local atmosphere's just before an earthquake strikes, not unlike what a volcano smells like or the fumerols in Yellowstone Park, like rotten eggs, but quite subtle.
The year before my birth in Long Beach, California that town was struck by a 7.6 shockeroo that made the town look like a war zone when it stopped shaking, killing any number of people, with conflagrations erupting in the aftermath. That occurred on a seondary fault to the San Andreas, with which Southern California is riddled. The Pacific tectonic plate is sliding northwesterly past the North American plate and the San Andreas fault is the divider. It can be seen from space, and from the air or in aerial photography it stands out as a long straight line or trough that goes on for miles, straight as an arrow. When you see it from that POV you know damned well it's something geologically major.
The great 8+ quake that hit San Francisco in 1906 was on the San Andreas. That city sits practically astride the San Andreas fault. But the Loma Prieta quake that struck the Bay Area and down to Santa Cruz in 1989 was on a secondary fault, as I recall in any case. The name comes from the location of the epicenter, which was deep under Loma Prieta Mountain.
One thing we know for sure, Mother's gonna keep right on shakin' and she'll choose her times and places to shake hard enough to make us wish we were somewhere else.
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When will large scale corporate capitalism and government metamorphose to embrace modern thinking and allow us to live sustainably?
When will large scale corporate capitalism and government metamorphose to embrace modern thinking and allow us to live sustainably?
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Re: Earthquake Prediction Discussions on other forums
#20 by Mr.Samsa » Jan 06, 2012 7:25 am
I couldn't read through the whole thing, I stopped here:
Uh, no it doesn't. The plate cuts through the opposite side of the island. You know, where the massive mountain ranges are, generated by the two plates pushing up against each other.
After the earthquake in Japan, I decided to take a look at the tectonic plate boundaries to see if there was anything that stood out as a common factor with the quake in New Zealand a couple of months earlier. In my amateur review, there is. The Pacific plate boundary with the Australian plate cuts right through New Zealand at Christchurch.
Uh, no it doesn't. The plate cuts through the opposite side of the island. You know, where the massive mountain ranges are, generated by the two plates pushing up against each other.
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