Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

Serious Implications For Sea Level Rise

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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#21  Postby Macdoc » Jun 15, 2018 4:53 pm

Alan B
Why don't you read the entire article and their series instead of only the snip I took.

Food is only a part of the equation and just by wasting less we open up capacity.
The seas and inland seas are tremendous sources for protein growth, aqua-farming. At the base of it we have just about unlimited power now with solar and wind and with crispr phenomenal control over genes and genetic engineering.

There have been closed cycle sustainable villages in China for thousands of years.
Vertical farming is a reality
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming
You don't need a lot of surface.

Fresh water is an issue but again it is a matter of management - the atmosphere already has 5% more water vapor and that is harvestable with new technologies even in the driest regions.

We ARE/have been damaging the ecosystem regardless of sea level rise......but by concentrating in urban centres some regions are re-wilding.

The Eastern Antartcic ice cap is not going anywhere ....it's even growing, the western Antarctic and Iceland would contribute about 18 meters...the North Pole ice is immaterial.

The mid-lat glaciers are fading tho the Himalayas will take a while.

There is no technological choke point preventing a high billions sustainable civilization.

There is a great lack of political will to move forward to that goal.
Right now it's a patchwork

••••

Arable land while not critical is useful but look at the Dutch.
Switching from a land based food infrastructure to a shallow water based has been around for millenia....salmon never existed in the Southern hemisphere and now millions of pounds are harvested annually......and we understand the need for genetic diversity in a species for long term success....we have the tools and are using them even now.

Marine aquaculture presents an opportunity for increasing seafood production in the face of growing demand for marine protein and limited scope for expanding wild fishery harvests. However, the global capacity for increased aquaculture production from the ocean and the relative productivity potential across countries are unknown. Here, we map the biological production potential for marine aquaculture across the globe using an innovative approach that draws from physiology, allometry and growth theory. Even after applying substantial constraints based on existing ocean uses and limitations, we find vast areas in nearly every coastal country that are suitable for aquaculture. The development potential far exceeds the space required to meet foreseeable seafood demand; indeed, the current total landings of all wild-capture fisheries could be produced using less than 0.015% of the global ocean area. This analysis demonstrates that suitable space is unlikely to limit marine aquaculture development and highlights the role that other factors, such as economics and governance, play in shaping growth trajectories. We suggest that the vast amount of space suitable for marine aquaculture presents an opportunity for countries to develop aquaculture in a way that aligns with their economic, environmental and social objectives.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0257-9

Growing meat on an industrial scale without animals is nascent but IS real.

Lab-grown meat is in your future, and it may be healthier than the real stuff
By Marta Zaraska
May 2, 2016


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... 647f866dc8
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#22  Postby laklak » Jun 15, 2018 6:48 pm

If they can grow a steak that looks, feels, cooks, and tastes like a steak I'm all for it. Current meat "substitutes" are abominations, however. Quorn is Satan's lumpy, fermented diarrhea.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#23  Postby PensivePenny » Jun 15, 2018 8:07 pm

Yay! I'm going to own beachfront property soon!
Evolution saddens me. In an environment where irrational thinking is protected, the disparity in the population rate of creationists vs that of rational thinkers, equates to a creationist win. Let's remove warning labels from products as an equalizer.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#24  Postby PensivePenny » Jun 15, 2018 8:52 pm

Macdoc wrote:Not entirely true ...we do have the technology to be sustainable even at much higher numbers.

Image



That's an interesting perspective. It's a surprisingly small volume, intuitively for me in any case. I did a rough estimate myself to verify it. It's a reasonable representation. 1 km3 is what I came up with.

So, I wonder... for those incredulous individuals who find climate change due to human causes ridiculous, would this fuel their disbelief?
Evolution saddens me. In an environment where irrational thinking is protected, the disparity in the population rate of creationists vs that of rational thinkers, equates to a creationist win. Let's remove warning labels from products as an equalizer.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#25  Postby laklak » Jun 15, 2018 9:01 pm

Well, as a species we punch well above our weight.
A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - Mark Twain
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! - Chicken Little
I never go without my dinner. No one ever does, except vegetarians and people like that - Oscar Wilde
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#26  Postby PensivePenny » Jun 15, 2018 9:05 pm

Unless my math is wrong, there is an estimated 1.6 TRILLION BARRELS of oil left in the ground!!

That's about 500 times the volume living human flesh in the world!!

I'm buying a Hummer H2 tomorrow!
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#27  Postby Hermit » Jun 16, 2018 8:21 am

laklak wrote:At about 8 meters my house is oceanfront.

At 11 I'll be able to moor my clipper near my back fence.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#28  Postby Alan B » Jun 16, 2018 1:22 pm

Mac, I snipped your post because otherwise it would have been repetition.
I'm not arguing whether or not a future human population could be fed - I'm sure it could be. But at what cost to the rest of the planet?

There will be other factors resulting from sea level rise: changing climate as well as loss of land. These will have an effect on species survival (both flora and fauna) which may in turn affect how a technologically advanced human population can be fed. We can't all live as some Chinese communities do or be fed 'artificial' foods.
One only has to consider Palm Oil plantations replacing virgin Rain Forest and the effect on local species. The Orang-Utan is now considered endangered because of this.
But as long as we can feed our '10 billion', they (and others) don't matter, perhaps.

See also the link in the OP's article here with regard to measurements including the Arctic Circle melting.

And then, of course, there is the extra pollution caused by the needs of the extra 3 billion or so...

AGW is here to stay unless there is a dramatic world-wide change with how we manage ourselves in relation to the only planet we have. But with each country claiming they are 'special' because of 'sovereignty', I can't see that happening any time soon.

The proposed ideas on how to feed a burgeoning population are all well and good but they must be carried out in conjunction with the well-being of the rest of the planet upon which all of us ultimately rely. They cannot be carried out in isolation.
As one of the commentators wrote with regard to the three years out of date Brookings article:
Meditor wrote:In short: the article completely neglected the environment, except to note
we should stop cutting the last forests to produce soy and turnips for
cattle production, for example. The declining state of the seas was
neglected; global climate change and the uncertainty of weather makes
farming very difficult. This cheery piece is simply fantasy. Very
poorly informed. In my view.
Other comments were in a similar vein.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#29  Postby Macdoc » Jun 16, 2018 2:23 pm

We can't all live as some Chinese communities do or be fed 'artificial' foods.

why ???
The wild planet is gone except for a few enclaves, if we want to preserve those enclaves we have to and are getting over this wild foods are better nonsense.....Meditor has a very limited understanding ...."the last forests" ....what a joke.....the Boreal Forest occupies an immense portion of the planet. Sure, tropical forests are under pressure but again in some areas are sustained and sustainable and some even growing ( shade grown coffee for instance ). Of course weather makes old style farming difficult ...so what ....it will and is forcing change to a different manner of supplying food.

Don't really care about "other" comments...they are simply ill informed and whinging for some first world little villages and family farms that are long gone.....or morphed into sustainable communes/villages which technology allows now.

Sovereignty is a problem but AGW is going to continue for the forseeable future as will ice loss and humans will cope.

When sea level rise forces cities to relocate then arcology will come into its own.

An arcology is distinguished from a merely large building in that it is designed to lessen the impact of human habitation on any given ecosystem. It could be self-sustainable, employing all or most of its own available resources for a comfortable life: power; climate control; food production; air and water conservation and purification; sewage treatment; etc. An arcology is designed to make it possible to supply those items for a large population. An arcology would supply and maintain its own municipal or urban infrastructures in order to operate and connect with other urban environments apart from its own.
Arcology was proposed to reduce human impact on natural resources. Arcology designs might apply conventional building and civil engineering techniques in very large, but practical projects in order to achieve pedestrian economies of scale that have proven, post-automobile, to be difficult to achieve in other ways.
Frank Lloyd Wright proposed an early version[3] called Broadacre City although, in contrast to an arcology, Wright's idea is comparatively two-dimensional and depends on a road network. Wright's plan described transportation, agriculture, and commerce systems that would support an economy. Critics said that Wright's solution failed to account for population growth, and assumed a more rigid democracy than the U.S.A. actually has.
Buckminster Fuller proposed the Old Man River's City project, a domed city with a capacity of 125,000, as a solution to the housing problems in East St. Louis, Illinois.
Paolo Soleri proposed later solutions, and coined the term 'arcology'.[4] Soleri describes ways of compacting city structures in three dimensions to combat two-dimensional urban sprawl, to economize on transportation and other energy uses. Like Wright, Soleri proposed changes in transportation, agriculture, and commerce. Soleri explored reductions in resource consumption and duplication, land reclamation; he also proposed to eliminate most private transportation. He advocated for greater "frugality" and favored greater use of shared social resources, including public transit (and public libraries).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arcology

Hong Kong is merely an early warning as are tiny condos in places like New York, Toronto, Tokyo and London City.

China is already moving from smog ridden cities to immensely cleaner air and have the legislative power to mandate it. They have reached peak coal earlier not because of AGW specifically but because they can't breathe otherwise.

A parallel is London in the 50s ...ugly smog ridden, a dead river and London now ...clean air, much cleaner river yet much larger and even that is not really a planned mega-city as arcologies could be.
Here's a good article on the urbanization tho the horizon is limited in terms of sea level ...the outlined risks and challenges are well outlined
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016 ... planet-pay

In the time frames anticipated by the OP humans have time to build a different planetary structure but we ARE in the 6th great extinction and wailing and gnashing of teeth won't save that but acceptance that we must engineer our food and agriculture instead of this resource wasting insistance on "natural". Ever looked at the genetic structure of "natural corn" ?? It's frankenmonster.

Moving to aquaculture, vertical farming and arcologies in actually planned cities preserves the remaining wild spaces and the planet has a lot left....just not a lot of "pretty ones" like the Haida Guay.

On the flip side of urbanization, off grid technologies lets people have a technical civilization in small remote communities that can be designed to be self sustaining and not mine the planet's resources.
The Haida Guay has some examples....mixing a long history of preserving resources with modern marketing ...selling herring roe to Japan for instance - collected in a manner that does not harm the herring at all.

Communication technologies and zero carbon transport can link buyers and sellers of delicacies around the planet - in some cases preserving species and habitats by providing the funding and the opportunity.

Entrepreneurs in Ontario are farming shrimp and barramundi in a sustainable manner in old pork farms to provide high value products to the large Toronto market next door which is urbanizing at an insane rate.

The technology and the opportunity is there to cope with sea level rise and reach much higher populations in a sustainable manner ...bewailing the past doesn't help.

Compare the horrid state of medicine and medical knowledge in 1850 compared to now.
Sustainable planet tech is still in the 1850s compared what it could and will be. Things like CRISPR, gene management in species right down to the individuals, designer algae for food and fuel and even plastics and maybe, if the tech pans out a closed cycle for carbon based fuels.

Our imaginations are not capable of absorbing the technological progress that is in full flight.

Our will to implement the tech over fear ( genetics ) and NIMBYism ( city design) is the greatest impediment ( oh that windmill ruins the view, or is unhealthy etc etc ).

Human nature is the biggest barrier to a sustainable planet....sea level rise may just force the issue.
It's unfortunate that it requires a crisis.

Look at Japan and Germany building immensely better cities after being nearly destroyed.

The most promising factor in all of this is low cost wind and solar power that is not necessarily tied to a national grid so future looking companies like Ikea can build their own power and storage system and take their factory and factory town off the grid and to a sustainable local power supply right now.
Live, work and provide in demand, value added products from sustainable silvaculture.....that company really has a long horizon.

https://www.ikea.com/ms/en_CA/this-is-i ... index.html
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#30  Postby aban57 » Jun 18, 2018 2:48 pm

At least we'll have dozens of version of the Atlantis "myth", for future generations...
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#31  Postby laklak » Jun 18, 2018 3:37 pm

We're going to have to deal with rising sea levels, full stop, no matter what we do to mitigate the problem. We need to take proactive action to minimize disruption and economic impact. Don't ask me what, that's above my pay grade.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#32  Postby Macdoc » Jun 18, 2018 4:29 pm

It's a very long timeline for most regions tho S Florida is toast as is the Pensicola Naval Base - they both already have issues with King tides.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#33  Postby Macdoc » Jun 18, 2018 5:29 pm

Good analysis here in a reasonable time frame ...


According to the study, densely populated areas in California and New York face significant exposure to chronic inundation by 2045. These snapshots from the study show just how many people are currently living in at-risk properties.
New York and New Jersey combined could lose nearly 400,000 homes and more than $200 billion in decreased property value.
In all, the entire US coastline area under threat could lose up to 2.5 million homes and businesses, totaling $1 trillion by the end of the century.
That's roughly the equivalent to all the homes in Los Angeles and Houston.
"Unfortunately, in the years ahead, many coastal communities will face declining property values as risk perceptions catch up with reality," said the Union of Concered Scientitsts' Rachel Cleetus. Cleetus is an economist and policy director for the group's Climate and Energy Program.
"In contrast with previous housing market crashes, values of properties chronically inundated due to sea level rise are unlikely to recover and will only continue to go further underwater, literally and figuratively," said Cleetus.
With lower home values, comes lower property taxes. That drop in revenue would hit state funding for schools, roads and emergency services.
A senior climate scientist at UCS, Kristy Dahl estimates that "some smaller, more rural communities may see 30%, 50%, or even 70% of their property tax revenue at risk due to the number of chronically inundated homes."


Image

this is the life of a roof...

In the contiguous US, according to a new study from the Union of Concerned Scientists, more than 310,000 existing homes are projected to be at risk of chronic inundation by 2045, a number that grows to nearly 2.4 million by the end of the century. These maps from the study show what states have the most residential properties at risk in 2045 and 2100.

decent read

Going to have to be creative like the Dutch and float new houses....

Image
IJburg is built on four artificial islands that are connected to each other and the rest of the city via bridges. It has around 21,000 inhabitants, the first of whom moved there in early 2002. But the district still isn't completely built. Though the goal was to finish building IJburg by 2012, that has not happened due to environmental concerns and slow uptake of houses. When finished, it will offer 18,000 homes for 45,000 people and create around 12,000 jobs.


https://psmag.com/environment/are-the-f ... ising-seas
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#34  Postby laklak » Jun 18, 2018 6:35 pm

Were getting bad beach erosion due to the combination of spring tides and storms. Lido Beach, the closest one to us, lost a massive amount in the last month or so, more than we did during Irma. There is no long term solution. In the short term they're probably going to dredge New Pass, which leads from the ICW to the Gulf, and dump the sand on Lido beach.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#35  Postby Macdoc » Jun 18, 2018 7:09 pm

Image

BRACING FOR THE MELTWATER PULSE IN MIAMI
How rising seas are already dismantling our ideas of home.
ELIZABETH RUSHJUN 5, 2018


https://psmag.com/environment/rising-elizabeth-rush

Amphibious mass transit

Image

or personal

Image
https://awesomestuff365.com/amphibious-vehicles/

and even an RV
Image
This is one of the most noteworthy examples of superb amphibious car design that meet the rigorous military grade requirements and avail the convenience of access and great performance on virtually any terrain.

It is a most remarkable addition to the wonders or recreational vehicles the world over. It has retained the sleek exterior and spacious interior that characterizes most RVS and makes it possible to enjoy the vacation of a lifetime without any barrier standing in your way.


Interesting times
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#36  Postby Macdoc » Jun 19, 2018 8:57 am

This is very near term

Sea Level Rise Will Threaten Thousands of California Homes
Chronic flooding will impact areas around San Francisco and Los Angeles by 2035
By Anne C. Mulkern, E&E News on June 18, 2018

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... nia-homes/
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#37  Postby Cito di Pense » Jun 19, 2018 2:14 pm

There's hope that UPS and FedEx will continue to be able to make their deliveries.
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Translation by Elbert Hubbard: Do not take life too seriously. You're not going to get out of it alive.
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Re: Ice Loss From Antarctica Tripled Over Past 5 Years

#38  Postby laklak » Jun 19, 2018 2:37 pm

Delivery drones are the wave of the future.
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