http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14981921

Six Italian scientists and a former government official are due to go on trial for manslaughter over the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila.

The 6.3 magnitude quake devastated the city and killed 309 people.

Prosecutors allege the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake after studying hundreds of tremors that had shaken the city.

The defence argues that there is no way to predict major earthquakes even in a seismically active area.

I won't condemn this out of hand as I haven't read the whole thing but at first glance it seems pretty silly - it just isn't possible to predict earthquakes accurately.

I would expect merely holding this trial will cause the number of false alarms to increase rapidly though...

chaggle wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14981921

Six Italian scientists and a former government official are due to go on trial for manslaughter over the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila.

The 6.3 magnitude quake devastated the city and killed 309 people.

Prosecutors allege the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake after studying hundreds of tremors that had shaken the city.

The defence argues that there is no way to predict major earthquakes even in a seismically active area.

I won't condemn this out of hand as I haven't read the whole thing but at first glance it seems pretty silly - it just isn't possible to predict earthquakes accurately.

I would expect merely holding this trial will cause the number of false alarms to increase rapidly though...

Oughtn't God be on trial too?

I mean there is a documented history of him telling worthy people to move out of areas of devastation prior to "Natural events disasters". Noah got the nod, so did Lott and co. Hang, on, I guess nobody was wothy in L'Aquila.

well that's the point, since no one can predict major earthquakes, scientists shouldn't reassure people, telling them it's gonna be ok, if it's what happened

aban57 wrote:well that's the point, since no one can predict major earthquakes, scientists shouldn't reassure people, telling them it's gonna be ok, if it's what happened

No, they said that there was "no reason to believe that a series of low-level tremors was a precursor to a larger event". Which was true then and is still true now. And they also clearly stated that it is impossible to predict earthquakes and called for stricter enforcement of anti-seismic measures in construction. What, should they have said a quake was imminent even though they had no indication that was so? Should all seismologists in seismically active areas start screaming catastrophe now just in case?

But hey, it is so much easier to put scientists on a show trial for telling the truth then to deal with constructors that made substandard buildings, right?

aban57 wrote:well that's the point, since no one can predict major earthquakes, scientists shouldn't reassure people, telling them it's gonna be ok, if it's what happened

And even if they had told the government there was a risk for a big earthquake in the general italian region, what were they expected to do?
Evacuate the country? For how long exactly, because the 'big' quake could have very well been a precursor to an even bigger quake. In hindsight, this is not the case, but everyone is clairvoyant in hindsight.

It's just a matter of people's poor reflex to blame somebody/anybody for whatever happens.