America's War

Austerity VS Stimulus Spending Now

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Re: America's War

#21  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 01, 2013 4:04 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:Yesterday, a Tea Bagger member of the House of Representatives from South Carolina introduced a Bill that would eliminate all statistical reporting done by the Census Bureau, which includes a broad array of reports on unemployment, economic growth, and other indicators of how people are faring. If this Bill were to be enacted by the Congress we'd no longer know what the unemployment rate was nor know much of anything about the economic well being of the citizentry

Surely this will not pass Congress!

All we can do is hope it won't.
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Re: America's War

#22  Postby Scot Dutchy » May 01, 2013 4:05 pm

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:Yesterday, a Tea Bagger member of the House of Representatives from South Carolina introduced a Bill that would eliminate all statistical reporting done by the Census Bureau, which includes a broad array of reports on unemployment, economic growth, and other indicators of how people are faring. If this Bill were to be enacted by the Congress we'd no longer know what the unemployment rate was nor know much of anything about the economic well being of the citizentry

Surely this will not pass Congress!

All we can do is hope it won't.


Is there a real chance of it happening?
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Re: America's War

#23  Postby Macdoc » May 01, 2013 4:54 pm

What makes people think austerity is a good idea? It seems like they just hate the idea of conventional keynesian methods, and decide they support doing the opposite just because?


You cannot take a broad brush to this.

It really depends much on how the stimulus is undertaken.
Too often austerity is not applied in the correct areas.....privileged civil servants and politicians but applied as in Canada's case to further a government agenda which was kill the environmental science programs.....meanwhile stuffing the senate with his lackies which will cost the tax payers millions until they die.

FDR really did it correctly.
Obama is doing it correctly despite be handcuffed he still has the smallest government in a very long time.

Cutting entitlements without addressing say why the cost is growing ( the medical and drug empires for instance gouging the government programs. )

Tax the bastards and apply it to the programs and that's what the right wingdings don't want.

The successful nations may have high taxes and varying levels of debt but it's the low tax nations that have debt and no services.

Creating real wealth such as the national highway grid is the way Kenysian stimulus should work and generally returns $7 in GDP for each $1 in stimulus BUT....the resulting growth needs to be taxed to return the government to a balanced budget.

Effectively a government can be a buffer against large economic swings...ie droughts etc
It's why wars are good for the economy as the gov orders weapons and jumps up the military spending..

One wonders where the peace dividend got lost :coffee:
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Re: America's War

#24  Postby CdesignProponentsist » May 01, 2013 11:33 pm

The problem is most in our government think it's one or the other. Its both, just a smarter use or our money. But having our two parties at fucking polar loggerheads over this guarantees that we use our money in the worst possible way.
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Re: America's War

#25  Postby Jakov » May 02, 2013 2:33 am

This thread is full of good rational ideas and analysis, yet we see austerity winning everywhere in the west.

Keynesians have the good ideas but Austerians win because they have power. Being rich does that. To win in politics you need more than just good ideas, you need power as well.

They're doing austerity because it's profitable for them. The only way they'll stop is if the cost of austerity is higher than the cost of not austerity. They won't let something like an election stop austerity (see France 2012 where Hollande was elected on an explicitly anti-austerity platform, and then turned around and implemented austerity!)

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Re: America's War

#26  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 02, 2013 5:50 am

Jakov wrote:This thread is full of good rational ideas and analysis, yet we see austerity winning everywhere in the west.

Keynesians have the good ideas but Austerians win because they have power. Being rich does that. To win in politics you need more than just good ideas, you need power as well.

They're doing austerity because it's profitable for them. The only way they'll stop is if the cost of austerity is higher than the cost of not austerity. They won't let something like an election stop austerity (see France 2012 where Hollande was elected on an explicitly anti-austerity platform, and then turned out and implemented austerity!)

There's also a purely indeological component to their austerian views, sure it's (more) profitable for them, but it also beats the living shit out of the middle classes and the poor, who represent the 47 per cent Romney characterized as "takers."

So it's punishment for the takers as much as anything, giving them "what they deserve," a good kick in their economic teeth.

Bernake warned the Congress yesterday in a strongly worded statement that went directly against austerity.

It's the ideologically driven unpatriotic knee jerk ignoramuses versus the reasoned. One would hope the latter willl prevail.

I don't think they're going to have the power after the 2014 election. Even the good rednecks in Alabama are upset about how sequestration is hitting their businesses hard and causing some to fail. They appear to be mightily pissed off and we can expect their anger will end up giving the boot to some Tea Bagger Reps.
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Re: America's War

#27  Postby Scot Dutchy » May 02, 2013 8:31 am

Whether or not they will have power after 2014 thanks to the brilliant political system the damage will be so severe I doubt if can be turned around.

Corporate America has won.
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Re: America's War

#28  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 02, 2013 7:13 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:Whether or not they will have power after 2014 thanks to the brilliant political system the damage will be so severe I doubt if can be turned around.

Corporate America has won.

I don't think the fat lady has sung her tune yet.

In "winning" corporate America and its right wing extremist apologists will actually lose, truth be told.

They'll lose for a number of reasons, not the least of which is they can't do anthing about climate change and climate change will do them in; but they can't govern anyway so their thing will only tend to fall apart.

A Republican Senator admitted yesterday that he and his cohorts in the Senate voted against extended background checks on gun purchases because "they didn't want to be seen as supporting Obama," the President they love to hate. In other words, screw the country, let's not make Obama look good. That has a name, it's called gridlock, which forces the government into inaction on a host of critical issues and leaves them festering, eating away at the fabric of the nation.

Unless one can envision America falling into complete libertarian chaos and mayhem, it's hard to imagine that smarter more reasonable Americans won't take control of the situation and do whatever they have to do to right the American ship, including completely revamping its form of government and economics.

That Perfect Storm is a-brewing as we speak. A breakthrough has to come. Climate change could well be the force that makes it come. I'm hard pressed to think Americans will just stand by and watch their country turn to utter shit and let it go at that.
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Re: America's War

#29  Postby Loren Michael » May 02, 2013 8:58 pm

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Whether or not they will have power after 2014 thanks to the brilliant political system the damage will be so severe I doubt if can be turned around.

Corporate America has won.

I don't think the fat lady has sung her tune yet.

In "winning" corporate America and its right wing extremist apologists will actually lose, truth be told.

They'll lose for a number of reasons, not the least of which is they can't do anthing about climate change and climate change will do them in; but they can't govern anyway so their thing will only tend to fall apart.

A Republican Senator admitted yesterday that he and his cohorts in the Senate voted against extended background checks on gun purchases because "they didn't want to be seen as supporting Obama," the President they love to hate. In other words, screw the country, let's not make Obama look good. That has a name, it's called gridlock, which forces the government into inaction on a host of critical issues and leaves them festering, eating away at the fabric of the nation.

Unless one can envision America falling into complete libertarian chaos and mayhem, it's hard to imagine that smarter more reasonable Americans won't take control of the situation and do whatever they have to do to right the American ship, including completely revamping its form of government and economics.


I think it's fairly easy to imagine that things will continue to be about as they are now in America, which is tolerable for most, intolerable for a marginalized few.

It's difficult to see what would make "smarter more reasonable Americans" cake control of the situation, as though they haven't been trying for a long time. The system, the status quo, defends and entrenches itself.

The notion that Americans are going to completely revamp their form f government and economics is silly. Not enough people have an interest in changing the system, the system itself makes it almost impossible to change the system via its own processes... There's no popular will to make those kinds of changes, and the system itself makes it almost impossible to fundamentally make changes.

That Perfect Storm is a-brewing as we speak.


No it's not.

To the extent that you want to do good, you're better off championing causes that actually have a chance of coming to pass like reform than you are championing poorly developed fantasies.
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Re: America's War

#30  Postby Jakov » May 02, 2013 9:49 pm

Why was this moved to economics? The question of who should pay for the great recession of 2009 belongs in NP&CA.

I didn't see any discussion about it being moved to an obscure and low-activity part of the forum.
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Re: America's War

#31  Postby Loren Michael » May 02, 2013 9:54 pm

To the extent this thread follows the issues in the OP, it belongs here.
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Re: America's War

#32  Postby Jakov » May 03, 2013 12:17 am

The thread is filled with discussions of what happens in the US Congress, if that's not politics I don't know what is.
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Re: America's War

#33  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 03, 2013 2:26 am

Jakov wrote:The thread is filled with discussions of what happens in the US Congress, if that's not politics I don't know what is.

True enough, but nevertheless, the topic is economics.

The thread did start in "Politics and Current Affairs," but was moved here by the Mods.

Meanwhile, the war continues between austerians and realists, and the former have been pushed into a corner from which there may be no espcape.


Reinhart, Rogoff Backing Furiously Away From Austerity Movement

Posted: 05/02/2013 1:49 pm EDT | Updated: 05/02/2013 1:56 pm EDT
By Mark Gongloff
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/0 ... 01453.html

Under steady attack after their seminal research was found to be riddled with errors, Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff are making a show of backing away from the austerity that their research encouraged.

They claim that their views on austerity have never changed, but the record tells a different story. They're still trying to have it both ways -- advocating for government belt-tightening while trying to avoid being seen as political.

For those readers who have spent the past month held prisoner by the Sleestaks from "The Land Of The Lost," let me catch you up: Reinhart and Rogoff wrote a paper back in January 2010, called "Growth In A Time Of Debt," which strongly suggested that government debt of more than 90 percent of gross domestic product caused bad things to happen to economies. In the years since its publication, that paper has been cited by many politicians, from Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to George Osborne of the U.K., to justify harsh belt-tightening programs despite deep, widespread economic pain in the U.S., U.K. and Europe.

Two weeks ago, a University of Massachusetts-Amherst grad student, Thomas Herndon, destroyed their paper's credibility by pointing out that it was riddled with errors, including glaring data omissions and a goofy Excel spreadsheet mistake. Suddenly, the Paul Krugmans of the world, who have spent the past few years arguing fruitlessly against austerity, had the upper hand. The austerity movement had been discredited, along with the research from Reinhart and Rogoff that underpinned it.

Of course, Reinhart and Rogoff have repeatedly claimed that their work has not been discredited at all, that the bulk of the data still supports their thesis that debt is a really, really bad thing. And austerity advocates claim, accurately, that they weren't relying only on Reinhart and Rogoff in pushing for austerity. They still believe debt is a really, really bad thing, with or without Reinhart and Rogoff's numbers.

As part of the effort to rehabilitate their image, Reinhart and Rogoff have taken the additional step of trying to distance themselves from austerity altogether by claiming they were never advocates. In a Financial Times piece on Wednesday (subscription required) and in a New York Times op-ed last week, they argued that "austerity is not the only answer" to the oh-so-serious problem of government debt. In fact, a whole toolkit must be used -- a little austerity here, a little financial repression there, maybe a little inflation.

And with Wednesday's FT column, a surprising new tool appears in the kit: More government debt! Although not too much more, and only if it's used for the right things (emphasis added):

To be clear, no one should be arguing to stabilise debt, much less bring it down, until growth is more solidly entrenched.... Nevertheless, given current debt levels, enhanced stimulus should only be taken selectively and with due caution. A higher borrowing trajectory is warranted, given weak demand and low interest rates, where governments can identify high-return infrastructure projects. Borrowing to finance productive infrastructure raises long-run potential growth, ultimately pulling debt ratios lower. We have argued this consistently since the outset of the crisis.

But Reinhart and Rogoff never argued, in many of the high-profile columns they wrote following the release of their paper, that governments should take on more debt for infrastructure spending, or for anything else. In fact, they strongly suggested that governments had better hurry up and start cutting their debt, tout de suite, lest a new financial crisis hit.

Continues ...
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Re: America's War

#34  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 03, 2013 2:48 am

Loren Michael wrote:
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Whether or not they will have power after 2014 thanks to the brilliant political system the damage will be so severe I doubt if can be turned around.

Corporate America has won.

I don't think the fat lady has sung her tune yet.

In "winning" corporate America and its right wing extremist apologists will actually lose, truth be told.

They'll lose for a number of reasons, not the least of which is they can't do anthing about climate change and climate change will do them in; but they can't govern anyway so their thing will only tend to fall apart.

A Republican Senator admitted yesterday that he and his cohorts in the Senate voted against extended background checks on gun purchases because "they didn't want to be seen as supporting Obama," the President they love to hate. In other words, screw the country, let's not make Obama look good. That has a name, it's called gridlock, which forces the government into inaction on a host of critical issues and leaves them festering, eating away at the fabric of the nation.

Unless one can envision America falling into complete libertarian chaos and mayhem, it's hard to imagine that smarter more reasonable Americans won't take control of the situation and do whatever they have to do to right the American ship, including completely revamping its form of government and economics.

I think it's fairly easy to imagine that things will continue to be about as they are now in America, which is tolerable for most, intolerable for a marginalized few.

It's difficult to see what would make "smarter more reasonable Americans" cake control of the situation, as though they haven't been trying for a long time. The system, the status quo, defends and entrenches itself.

The notion that Americans are going to completely revamp their form f government and economics is silly. Not enough people have an interest in changing the system, the system itself makes it almost impossible to change the system via its own processes... There's no popular will to make those kinds of changes, and the system itself makes it almost impossible to fundamentally make changes.

That Perfect Storm is a-brewing as we speak.

No it's not.

To the extent that you want to do good, you're better off championing causes that actually have a chance of coming to pass like reform than you are championing poorly developed fantasies.

You appear to have no idea how quickly things can change and how rapidly people can react to conditions they finally realize aren't, as you note, going to change ... unless they get up off their complacent asses and forge change themselves. In that event, a system that's on its knees won't be able to stop them, and half its operators will be fleeing to their villas in the South of France anyway.

This is known as reaching a "tipping point," which occur in all kinds of different phenomena and create whole new eras by obliterating the past and its practices and inventing and installing new ways that are rapidly adopted out of simple necessity.

People get excited and are inspired and energized and become animated by the possibility of new worlds, especially when their worlds are the blithering shits.

The "perfect storm" I said was brewing and you said was not is a social tipping point, one that will be abetted by an economic tipping point, and when they occur change will happen almost at light speed.

Course, if you don't study these matters you can't take them into account, you'll be blinded to them and your tendency will be to say "No," as you did in this instance. History is replete ...

But I do study them, so I don't say "no," I say, look fucking out, dude!

Intellectual laziness and lack of curiosity won't save you, even though it looks that way in the present moment.
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Re: America's War

#35  Postby Loren Michael » May 03, 2013 4:28 am

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:People get excited and are inspired and energized and become animated by the possibility of new worlds, especially when their worlds are the blithering shits.


...and as I noted that's a marginalized few, at least in America.

The "perfect storm" I said was brewing and you said was not is a social tipping point, one that will be abetted by an economic tipping point, and when they occur change will happen almost at light speed.

Course, if you don't study these matters you can't take them into account, you'll be blinded to them and your tendency will be to say "No," as you did in this instance. History is replete ...

But I do study them, so I don't say "no," I say, look fucking out, dude!


Economics is largely mumbo jumbo to you. I don't think you're particularly engaged with it, and you're making social and economic prognostications about it. You'll forgive me I'm sure if I don't take your word for that one.
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Re: America's War

#36  Postby epepke » May 03, 2013 7:49 am

Loren Michael wrote:To the extent that you want to do good, you're better off championing causes that actually have a chance of coming to pass like reform than you are championing poorly developed fantasies.


But the latter is a lot more fun. It's also safer. Because it won't work, you never have to be accountable. Also, you never run out of reasons to be outraged. Nobody wants to wind up like Tolstoy.
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Re: America's War

#37  Postby Loren Michael » May 03, 2013 8:23 am

It's fun, but once people start taking their fantasies seriously and decide that they are Serious Thinkers it's a big problem, and a big waste.

Look at the drain of human effort and passion that was Occupy Wall Street.

EDIT: Spelling
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Re: America's War

#38  Postby Scot Dutchy » May 03, 2013 9:34 am

epepke wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:To the extent that you want to do good, you're better off championing causes that actually have a chance of coming to pass like reform than you are championing poorly developed fantasies.


But the latter is a lot more fun. It's also safer. Because it won't work, you never have to be accountable. Also, you never run out of reasons to be outraged. Nobody wants to wind up like Tolstoy.


WTF

Not quoting? An original thought? :whistle:

Not worth much mind. Sort of childish. :think:
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Re: America's War

#39  Postby epepke » May 03, 2013 9:37 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
epepke wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:To the extent that you want to do good, you're better off championing causes that actually have a chance of coming to pass like reform than you are championing poorly developed fantasies.


But the latter is a lot more fun. It's also safer. Because it won't work, you never have to be accountable. Also, you never run out of reasons to be outraged. Nobody wants to wind up like Tolstoy.


WTF

Not quoting? An original thought? :whistle:

Not worth much mind. Sort of childish. :think:


Not terribly good at indirect thought and reasoning, are you? Go watch some professional wrestling. It's REAL to you.
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Re: America's War

#40  Postby Scot Dutchy » May 03, 2013 9:39 am

epepke wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
epepke wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:To the extent that you want to do good, you're better off championing causes that actually have a chance of coming to pass like reform than you are championing poorly developed fantasies.


But the latter is a lot more fun. It's also safer. Because it won't work, you never have to be accountable. Also, you never run out of reasons to be outraged. Nobody wants to wind up like Tolstoy.


WTF

Not quoting? An original thought? :whistle:

Not worth much mind. Sort of childish. :think:


Not terribly good at indirect thought and reasoning, are you? Go watch some professional wrestling. It's REAL to you.


FFS :rofl:

Really indirect thought. Just try direct thought that will be good enough please. :lol:
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