Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#41  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 25, 2013 12:58 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:America is almost bottom on percentage of GDP ppp:

Denmark the top spends 30% America third bottom 15%.


...and America's per capita GDP is higher than Denmark's.



I'm curious about the effects of mass migration in Europe, but if you "know" this, why not link to something that actually has some evidence? I've been asking for it repeatedly throughout this thread, why so cagy? We're all just people on the internet. I think we're obligated to think that we're all completely full of shit until we show our work. So show your work.


The effect of mass immigration has never happened in practice it has only been projected and that is why controles are so tight.
Look at the various governments policies in this regard. Even the immigration from the emerging East European countries within the EU is restricted because of the projections made.

There is no logic behind your standpoint. Mass immigration would reduce living standards of the people at the bottom. Our economies and employment systems dont operate the same as the states. Once again it is something you dont understand. Workers here are far better protected. We dont have an illegal culture in employing illegals. Here almost everyone has a written contract where he works. There are few load paid jobs because we have a minimum wage which is strictly enforced. Only a few workers in the horticultural world are paid day wages when gathering certain fruits in season. No one else is. Everyone has to pay tax.

You cant compare the societies of Europe to that of America.


Mass immigration has never been studied? Bullshit. I already linked to the effects of the Mariel Boatlift. That's an addition of 60,000 immigrants to a single city over a few months. Look what happened:

Effect on the Miami labor market

About fifty percent of the Mariel immigrants decided to reside in Miami permanently and this resulted in a seven percent increase in workers in the Miami labor market and a twenty percent increase in the Cuban working population.

Aside from the unemployment rate rising from 5.0 in April 1980 to 7.1 in July, which should be expected with such a large increase of workers, the actual damage to the economy was marginal and followed trends across the United States at the time. When observing data from 1979 to 1985 on the Miami labor market and comparing it to similar data from several other major cities across the United States focusing on wages it is clear that the effects of the boatlift were marginal.[5]

The wages for Caucasians remained steady in both Miami and comparative cities. Likewise the wage rates for African Americans were relatively steady from 1979 to 1985 when in comparable cities it dropped. Aside from a dip in 1983, wage rates for Non-Cuban Hispanics were stable, when in comparable cities it fell approximately six percent.

There is no evidence of a negative effect on wage rates for other groups of Hispanics in Miami. Wages for Cubans demonstrated a steady decline especially compared to other groups in Miami at the time, however, this can be attributed exclusively to the 'dilution' of the group with the new, less-experienced and lower-earning Mariel immigrants, meaning that there is also no evidence of a negative effect on wage rates for Cubans already residing in Miami prior to 1980.[6]


You claim that the living standards of people on the bottom would be affected. The above indicates that you are wrong.

I also addressed the effects of immigration on black people, a distinctly underprivileged group in America:

...So to get at complementarities you might be interested in a study like this one from Jack Strauss that looked at how black employment in a given metro area is altered by the level of Latin American immigration to that metro area. Since a strong local economy could simultaneously create jobs for black people and draw in Latino migrants, the question is a bit difficult to answer statistically. But he slices and dices the numbers in a range of different ways and reaches the conclusion that "results strongly support one-way causation from increased immigration including Latinos to higher black wages and lower poverty." In other words, complementarities dominate. The marginal working-class black person in the United States has a different employment profile than the marginal Latin American immigrant, and so the more immigrants you have, the more economic opportunities exist locally for black people.

If there have been projections made, why don't you post them? I'm not going to take your word for it because in at least the areas that I have a lot of familiarity with, what you say goes against the evidence. If you know something, you clearly read it somewhere. Where? Link!
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#42  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 25, 2013 2:12 pm

Once again trotting out American situations which are not eqivelent to any European one.

Why do you think we have such controles. Miami is Miami. There is no society in Europe that functions in that way.

Here you have to have a citizen's number (which requires first that you register with the town hall and have a place of abode) before you can work plus a visa if you come from outside the EU. You then have to do a citizenship course plus a language course and pass them both otherwise it is bye bye. You just cant come in and expect to work it just does not work that way.
The way you describe it is more like a third world country but I forgot for many Americans it is. :nono:

I bet you no one in Miami had to go through that process.

We dont want immigration dont you get it? Your scenario's would never apply to Europe. We sent more than 100,000 back to non EU countries last year. The holding pens in Schipol Airport are full.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#43  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 25, 2013 2:53 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:Once again trotting out American situations which are not eqivelent to any European one.

Why do you think we have such controles. Miami is Miami. There is no society in Europe that functions in that way.

Here you have to have a citizen's number (which requires first that you register with the town hall and have a place of abode) before you can work plus a visa if you come from outside the EU. You then have to do a citizenship course plus a language course and pass them both otherwise it is bye bye. You just cant come in and expect to work it just does not work that way.


1) Sure, there are lots of barriers to immigration. In America, there are similar restrictions. They could be lowered to allow for more immigrants. The fact of the barriers doesn't justify them though.

We dont want immigration dont you get it? Your scenario's would never apply to Europe. We sent more than 100,000 back to non EU countries last year. The holding pens in Schipol Airport are full.


2) Lots of Americans don't want immigration as well; that's not necessarily indicative of much beyond peoples' attitudes toward immigration. People also have attitudes toward prostitution, or gay marriage, or females entering the workforce that may or may not align with economic realities.

3) Why so link-shy?
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#44  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 25, 2013 2:59 pm

There is nothing to link. All you have linked is one misguided study.

Here is a link about illegals at Schiphol airport:

http://en.justitiaetpax.nl/project/aliens-detention-in-the-netherlands

Gives an idea about numbers.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#45  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 25, 2013 3:05 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:There is nothing to link. All you have linked is one misguided study.


I've linked to at least two studies. You haven't shown that they're misguided.

Here is a link about illegals at Schiphol airport:

http://en.justitiaetpax.nl/project/aliens-detention-in-the-netherlands

Gives an idea about numbers.


I'm not sure what point that's supposed to inform.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#46  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 25, 2013 3:16 pm

Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:There is nothing to link. All you have linked is one misguided study.


I've linked to at least two studies. You haven't shown that they're misguided.

Here is a link about illegals at Schiphol airport:

http://en.justitiaetpax.nl/project/aliens-detention-in-the-netherlands

Gives an idea about numbers.


I'm not sure what point that's supposed to inform.


Dont see it? Oh well.

Here is the official government position about illegals:

http://www.government.nl/issues/asylum-policy-and-immigration/asylum-policy/repatriation-of-aliens/return-process

BTW those two studies are of no worth as they are one off incidents and prove nothing in a first world country.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#47  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » Jun 25, 2013 8:16 pm

Loren Michael wrote:
2) Lots of Americans don't want immigration as well; that's not necessarily indicative of much beyond peoples' attitudes toward immigration. People also have attitudes toward prostitution, or gay marriage, or females entering the workforce that may or may not align with economic realities.

So "economic realities" are supposed to trump what people want or think?

Most American't don't want immigration because they've seen what it does to their country and they want no part of that, "economic realities" be damned.

Economics isn't always he final arbiter of policy, though that's probably hard for a capitalist to understand or appreciate. They don't care about quality of life or the character of their country and its communities, all they care about is getting more customers. Gotta grow yunno, at any price.

Most of the time it's just not worth it.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#48  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 26, 2013 6:07 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:There is nothing to link. All you have linked is one misguided study.


I've linked to at least two studies. You haven't shown that they're misguided.

Here is a link about illegals at Schiphol airport:

http://en.justitiaetpax.nl/project/aliens-detention-in-the-netherlands

Gives an idea about numbers.


I'm not sure what point that's supposed to inform.


Dont see it? Oh well.

Here is the official government position about illegals:

http://www.government.nl/issues/asylum-policy-and-immigration/asylum-policy/repatriation-of-aliens/return-process

BTW those two studies are of no worth as they are one off incidents and prove nothing in a first world country.


Again, it's not clear what that's supposed to inform. That looks like a position that constitutes barriers to migration to me. So? There has been nobody in here asserting that there is an open borders regime, only that there should be one.

Supporting a position by citing the existence of the status quo is like an American supporting an armed society because of the existence of gun laws. It's nonsensical. If you want to support the status quo, okay. It doesn't justify itself though.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#49  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 26, 2013 6:25 am

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:
2) Lots of Americans don't want immigration as well; that's not necessarily indicative of much beyond peoples' attitudes toward immigration. People also have attitudes toward prostitution, or gay marriage, or females entering the workforce that may or may not align with economic realities.

So "economic realities" are supposed to trump what people want or think?

Most American't don't want immigration because they've seen what it does to their country and they want no part of that, "economic realities" be damned.


1) How do you know this? What's your evidence?

Economics isn't always he final arbiter of policy, though that's probably hard for a capitalist to understand or appreciate. They don't care about quality of life or the character of their country and its communities, all they care about is getting more customers. Gotta grow yunno, at any price.

Most of the time it's just not worth it.


2) Good policy is informed by economics. All policy is arbitrated by the government, which may or may not inform its decision with economics.
3) Are you saying that I don't care about quality or character? For the sake of this question, assume that I'm a capitalist.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#50  Postby Rumraket » Jun 26, 2013 7:08 am

I'm With Stupid wrote:It's a false argument a lot of the time. You'll typically find that the people arguing against immigration are the same ones that are in favour of little-to-no welfare state anyway. In their ideal society there would be nothing for the immigrants to "fraudulently" claim anyway.

The exception to this is more right wing members of the working classes (the sort of people who might be tempted by the BNP) who actually support many aspects of the welfare state and public services, but fall for the "coming over here, taking our jobs" rhetoric.

Yes. You would not believe how many of the latter types there are in Denmark, and their despise for people on welfare isn't focused on immigrants by any stretch. Self-righteous assholes abounds, who have got this idea in their heads that if not everyone, then at least the vast majority of the people on some kind of government support have ended up there through indolence, lazyness and lack of trying. They "deserve" even less than what they get, and what little they get they have to be constantly humiliated for getting and remindend that it's "their own fault" and that they just need to "get off their fat assess and get a job". This is despite official statistics that show there are close to three times as many people without jobs as there are available jobs iirc.

Of couse, the media being effectively bought and paid for has a large part to play in shaping public opinion, having run countless campaigns over the last decade, trying to flush out and expose the "worst cases" they can find and then presenting these as examples of people on government support.

I could go on at length about how this whole shaping of public perceptions has disgusting effects on how people see each other here but I just get pissed off about it.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#51  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 26, 2013 4:29 pm

Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:There is nothing to link. All you have linked is one misguided study.


I've linked to at least two studies. You haven't shown that they're misguided.

Here is a link about illegals at Schiphol airport:

http://en.justitiaetpax.nl/project/aliens-detention-in-the-netherlands

Gives an idea about numbers.


I'm not sure what point that's supposed to inform.


Dont see it? Oh well.

Here is the official government position about illegals:

http://www.government.nl/issues/asylum-policy-and-immigration/asylum-policy/repatriation-of-aliens/return-process

BTW those two studies are of no worth as they are one off incidents and prove nothing in a first world country.


Again, it's not clear what that's supposed to inform. That looks like a position that constitutes barriers to migration to me. So? There has been nobody in here asserting that there is an open borders regime, only that there should be one.

Supporting a position by citing the existence of the status quo is like an American supporting an armed society because of the existence of gun laws. It's nonsensical. If you want to support the status quo, okay. It doesn't justify itself though.


Sorry you have flown into cloud cuckoo land. :fly: :insane:
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#52  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 26, 2013 5:03 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Supporting a position by citing the existence of the status quo is like an American supporting an armed society because of the existence of gun laws. It's nonsensical. If you want to support the status quo, okay. It doesn't justify itself though.


Sorry you have flown into cloud cuckoo land.


I'm not the one saying the status quo justifies itself.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#53  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 26, 2013 5:24 pm

Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Supporting a position by citing the existence of the status quo is like an American supporting an armed society because of the existence of gun laws. It's nonsensical. If you want to support the status quo, okay. It doesn't justify itself though.


Sorry you have flown into cloud cuckoo land.


I'm not the one saying the status quo justifies itself.


Look open borders in Europe are definitely a :nono: :nono:

Understand. We do not have a third world society. Dont you get it? You have not proved anything.

America is not Europe. America has between a minimal welfare to zero welfare state. Please dont compare.

The status quo and less suits us fine.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#54  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » Jun 26, 2013 5:52 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Supporting a position by citing the existence of the status quo is like an American supporting an armed society because of the existence of gun laws. It's nonsensical. If you want to support the status quo, okay. It doesn't justify itself though.


Sorry you have flown into cloud cuckoo land.


I'm not the one saying the status quo justifies itself.


Look open borders in Europe are definitely a :nono: :nono:

Understand. We do not have a third world society. Dont you get it? You have not proved anything.

America is not Europe. America has between a minimal welfare to zero welfare state. Please dont compare.

The status quo and less suits us fine.

it occurs to me that Loren is hyper stuck on trying to apply a macro (global) economic theory vis-a-vis immigration and make it suit the entire world and every coutry in it. But he's already been shown examples of where this didn't work (South Florida, Vancouver, and in Europe, California and Arizona). A one size fits all theory simply isn't going to work in all instances. There are always exceptions to the rule.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#55  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 26, 2013 5:59 pm

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:it occurs to me that Loren is hyper stuck on trying to apply a macro (global) economic theory vis-a-vis immigration and make it suit the entire world and every coutry in it. But he's already been shown examples of where this didn't work (South Florida, Vancouver, and in Europe, California and Arizona). A one size fits all theory simply isn't going to work in all instances. There are always exceptions to the rule.


I agree. He just does not see how the various societies operate. We in Europe do not under any circumstance want mass immigration. We have enough people to look after thank you very much.

Also he does not realise that the effect immigration has on the land where immigrants come from. It is so stupid to think it benefits both countries it beggars belief.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#56  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » Jun 27, 2013 12:36 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:it occurs to me that Loren is hyper stuck on trying to apply a macro (global) economic theory vis-a-vis immigration and make it suit the entire world and every coutry in it. But he's already been shown examples of where this didn't work (South Florida, Vancouver, and in Europe, California and Arizona). A one size fits all theory simply isn't going to work in all instances. There are always exceptions to the rule.


I agree. He just does not see how the various societies operate. We in Europe do not under any circumstance want mass immigration. We have enough people to look after thank you very much.

Also he does not realise that the effect immigration has on the land where immigrants come from. It is so stupid to think it benefits both countries it beggars belief.

Economists have a bad habit of reducing humans to little digits who otherwise have no culture. This is a huge mistake, because humans are first cultural and tribal beings who distinguish themselves with unique features of lifestyle, religion, family life, and the traditions of their culture. Then, they think of economcs,

There are vast differences between the ancient haygrowing cultures of Rumania, the inuit of Northern Canada, the goat herders of East frica, and the Spanish Bascos or Russian Doukhobors of Western Canada. There are eight or ten thousnd different identifiable human cultures on this planet, often speaking their own languages.

Our sense of human history can't be captued in one macro economic theory that arose sometime since 1950, or even 1700. The world is far too diverse for that to have any meaning. Modern capitalism and its narrowly focused economic theories aren't the best solution for all humans. Damn, Capitalism is falling apart at the seams in America, riddled with corruption, fraud, deceptive practices and dishonest brokers at nearly every turn. But then again, America doesn't really have any culture beyond that of money grubbibg and a few isolated groups that have managed to hang on their ways. New Mexico is an Indo-Spanish culture that's largely poor with a history that predates that of America itself. Let 100,000 Chinese peasant immigrate to that State and see what happens. They wouldn't last a year.

I suggest a subscription to National Geograhic magazine for Loren to assist him in comig to fuller realization of what immigration can mean to people and to countries with the full implications of the diverity in human culture. Humans are't little digits we can plug into an economic model and hope to get meaningful results. Economists just don't seem to get this.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#57  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 27, 2013 12:39 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Supporting a position by citing the existence of the status quo is like an American supporting an armed society because of the existence of gun laws. It's nonsensical. If you want to support the status quo, okay. It doesn't justify itself though.


Sorry you have flown into cloud cuckoo land.


I'm not the one saying the status quo justifies itself.


Look open borders in Europe are definitely a :nono: :nono:

Understand. We do not have a third world society. Dont you get it? You have not proved anything.

America is not Europe. America has between a minimal welfare to zero welfare state. Please dont compare.

The status quo and less suits us fine.


That could be!

But you're not supporting that position with anything other than appeals to the status quo. Supporting a law by citing that law is meaningless. The question isn't what the status quo is, it's what it should be.

That you're curiously unable to support this apparently-obviously-optimal status quo with anything other than strong opinion is sad.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#58  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 27, 2013 12:49 am

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:

Sorry you have flown into cloud cuckoo land.


I'm not the one saying the status quo justifies itself.


Look open borders in Europe are definitely a :nono: :nono:

Understand. We do not have a third world society. Dont you get it? You have not proved anything.

America is not Europe. America has between a minimal welfare to zero welfare state. Please dont compare.

The status quo and less suits us fine.

it occurs to me that Loren is hyper stuck on trying to apply a macro (global) economic theory vis-a-vis immigration and make it suit the entire world and every coutry in it. But he's already been shown examples of where this didn't work (South Florida, Vancouver, and in Europe, California and Arizona). A one size fits all theory simply isn't going to work in all instances. There are always exceptions to the rule.


FACT-MAN-2, you've shown nothing but your ability to tell stories. You haven't shown how Vancouver was adversely affected by immigration; I have no idea how true or untrue your stories are, but it's perfectly clear that Vancouver is currently a very vibrant city.

With respect to South Florida:

Loren Michael wrote:
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:Any evidence for that claim? Here's some evidence that immigration reduces black unemployment in America. That seems to suggest the exact opposite of what you're saying.

Well, actualy, no, it doesn't. For example, in the 1980's when tens of thousands of Cuban immigrnta flooded into South Florida they puhsed thousands of black people out of the menial jobs that had been their domain since the beginning of time. By 1990 there wasn't a black person working as a dishwasher, food prepper, floor sweeper, handyman, burger flipper or in any of the traditional menial jobs that blacks had always done in South Florida. These jobbs were all being done by Cubans, and typically for less wages that blacks had earned doing them. A huge number of blacks were pushed out of South Florida, many went to cities in the north.

This was a real world phenomena that actualy occurred.


[Mariel Boat Lift] Effect on the Miami labor market

About fifty percent of the Mariel immigrants decided to reside in Miami permanently and this resulted in a seven percent increase in workers in the Miami labor market and a twenty percent increase in the Cuban working population.

Aside from the unemployment rate rising from 5.0 in April 1980 to 7.1 in July, which should be expected with such a large increase of workers, the actual damage to the economy was marginal and followed trends across the United States at the time. When observing data from 1979 to 1985 on the Miami labor market and comparing it to similar data from several other major cities across the United States focusing on wages it is clear that the effects of the boatlift were marginal.[5]

The wages for Caucasians remained steady in both Miami and comparative cities. Likewise the wage rates for African Americans were relatively steady from 1979 to 1985 when in comparable cities it dropped. Aside from a dip in 1983, wage rates for Non-Cuban Hispanics were stable, when in comparable cities it fell approximately six percent.

There is no evidence of a negative effect on wage rates for other groups of Hispanics in Miami. Wages for Cubans demonstrated a steady decline especially compared to other groups in Miami at the time, however, this can be attributed exclusively to the 'dilution' of the group with the new, less-experienced and lower-earning Mariel immigrants, meaning that there is also no evidence of a negative effect on wage rates for Cubans already residing in Miami prior to 1980.


You're explicitly ignoring evidence now. You say something without evidence, I show evidence that you're wrong, and you maintain your original opinion. That's not trustworthy behavior, that's you ignoring reality.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#59  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 27, 2013 9:58 am

Loren that is no evidence for mass immigration just a one off incident.
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Re: Does immigration hurt support for the welfare state?

#60  Postby Loren Michael » Jun 27, 2013 10:09 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:Loren that is no evidence for mass immigration just a one off incident.


I didn't present it as such.

FACT-MAN-2 made a claim about the effects of the Mariel Boat lift. I presented it as evidence that FACT-MAN-2 is wrong. Consider the quote-tree immediately above your post.
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