IS he a scientist?

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IS he a scientist?

#1  Postby Macdoc » Apr 30, 2013 11:32 am

Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse

Monday, 29 Apr 2013 07:23 AM

Chris Martenson is a world-renowned expert on identifying dangerous, yet hidden, exponential growth patterns in global economies, energy demand, and food consumption...

And he is predicting a 60% stock market collapse will strike in the next three months.

Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.

His shocking forecast is based on a new alarming pattern he’s identified — he’s calling it “a dreaded triple top” (pictured below).

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/MKTnews/Market ... z2RwecaksY
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http://www.moneynews.com/MKTnews/Market ... de=13001-1

snip

In a recent interview, Robert Wiedemer — an economist best known for correctly predicting the collapse of the U.S. housing market of 2006 and the stock market collapse of 2008 — provides disturbing evidence for 50 percent unemployment, a 90 percent stock market crash, and 100 percent annual inflation . . . starting this year


Okay so we have a range of quite severe outcomes predicted here based on ????

Is this the equivalent say of an NEO bollide risk.....with risk bars.

Or is it crystal balling entirely based loosely on observations with no underlying metrics that support the economic "physics".
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#2  Postby epete » Apr 30, 2013 11:56 am

It's an educated guess at best, I reckon. There's simply too many variables to predict this sort of thing. Particularly when you throw "confidence" into the mix.

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no skill in determining whether economic predictions are good or bad. ;)
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#3  Postby THWOTH » Apr 30, 2013 12:30 pm

It was my understanding that a so-called 'proper' economists doesn't do predictions, just analysis, and any economist doing predictions should really be called a charlatan! I guess we'll see if Dr Martenson is a charlatan or not in about 3 months time. ;)
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#4  Postby Microfarad » Apr 30, 2013 2:40 pm

THWOTH wrote:It was my understanding that a so-called 'proper' economists doesn't do predictions, just analysis, and any economist doing predictions should really be called a charlatan! I guess we'll see if Dr Martenson is a charlatan or not in...

Generally, I think the contrary: a model which can make predictions is much more "scientific" than a model which only describes already observed phenomena. But I don't believe this one is a worthy predictive model.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#5  Postby Evolving » Apr 30, 2013 4:25 pm

I don't think economics does "predictions" in the same way as the natural sciences, where you work out that, if the theory is right, you'll be able to measure a certain predicted result if you set up an experiment in a certain way, which you can then test against a control experiment.

This prediction is more like "global temperatures will rise if humanity doesn't cut back on the fossil fuels".
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#6  Postby Mr.Samsa » May 01, 2013 2:40 am

Evolving wrote:I don't think economics does "predictions" in the same way as the natural sciences, where you work out that, if the theory is right, you'll be able to measure a certain predicted result if you set up an experiment in a certain way, which you can then test against a control experiment.

This prediction is more like "global temperatures will rise if humanity doesn't cut back on the fossil fuels".


It depends on what kind of economics you're talking about. Macroeconomics, like in the OP, is certainly difficult (arguably impossible?) to predict with any kind of certainty because the system under study is chaotic. But there are also areas of economics, like microeconomics and behavioral economics, where prediction works in the exact same way as the natural sciences.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#7  Postby scott1328 » May 01, 2013 3:51 am

Doesn't economics suffer from the intractable problem that if an economics model is accurate, then its very accuracy leads to its downfall because investors who make decisions based on the model will affect the very thing being modeled. A successful model would have to include within itself predictions about how markets would react to its predictions.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#8  Postby GT2211 » May 01, 2013 4:34 am

I consider neither in the OP as scientists and am willing to bet a fairly substantial sum that Wiedemer goes 0 for 3 on his predictions.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#9  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 03, 2013 3:08 am

GT2211 wrote:I consider neither in the OP as scientists and am willing to bet a fairly substantial sum that Wiedemer goes 0 for 3 on his predictions.

You're a brave man and you are whistling past the graveyard.

This fellow has an awfully lot going for what he predicts, you just have to dig deep to see it. His timing may be off by some margin, even a fairly wide margin like a year or two, but a 60 per cent (or more) drop in the market is almost inevitable given the way bubbles work, and make no mistake, we're in the midst of another bubble, a blind man could see this.

It's kinda funny because people never like to admit that something like this just may have some validity, they don't want to believe it, they are emotionally incapable of accepting it. They want to hear about roses and sunshine and ever rising markets and they'll beat you over the head if you spoil their little fantasy dreamworld.

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Re: IS he a scientist?

#10  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » May 03, 2013 3:25 am

That website wasn't too informative. Here is one where they actually ask him why he thinks this, so you don't have to take it on faith. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti ... 57460.html

"I see recessionary signs all over the landscape. In particular, Europe is already in recession [and] Japan is already in recession," he says. "We are looking at global economic slowdown."

As for corporate earnings, a stronger U.S. dollar could bring down profits this year, Martenson believes. Corporate profits currently account for 11% of GDP, which is way outside the norm of 6% of U.S. growth. He's also bearish on the U.S. economy and sees weakness in sectors that have shown improvement like the housing market.

Will the Federal Reserve's $85 billion monthly stimulus program continue to inflate asset prices?

"Fundamentally there always has to be some connection between where markets actually are and their price," Martenson says. He believes the Fed's monetary policy has reached a point of diminishing returns and could result in "a pretty significant" market pullback.


Obviously the market will pull back at some point. But I don't see where he gets the 60% drop from. So yea I don't believe it, but then again we don't see much negative news in Australia regarding finance at the moment so that might explain some of my optimism.

Also, people make predictions like this all the time and most of them turn out wrong. Also, to answer the title, this is most certainly not science.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#11  Postby GT2211 » May 03, 2013 3:56 am

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
GT2211 wrote:I consider neither in the OP as scientists and am willing to bet a fairly substantial sum that Wiedemer goes 0 for 3 on his predictions.

You're a brave man and you are whistling past the graveyard.
This fellow has an awfully lot going for what he predicts, you just have to dig deep to see it.
No, he certainly does not. An inflation rate of 100% for the US is pretty much impossible, especially while the DJIA falling from 15k to 1500, and UE rising to 50%.

His timing may be off by some margin, even a fairly wide margin like a year or two, but a 60 per cent (or more) drop in the market is almost inevitable given the way bubbles work,and make no mistake, we're in the midst of another bubble, a blind man could see this.
Perhaps you are referring to the first guys(Martenson?)'s predictions, but no, not only is it not inevitable given the way bubbles work, it is highly implausible that we will have another stock market crash bigger than the recent one in the next three months or 2 years if I graciously extend his time frame by a factor of 8.


It's kinda funny because people never like to admit that something like this just may have some validity, they don't want to believe it, they are emotionally incapable of accepting it. They want to hear about roses and sunshine and ever rising markets and they'll beat you over the head if you spoil their little fantasy dreamworld.

Wiser more experienced and honest men know better.
lol ok.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#12  Postby Loren Michael » May 03, 2013 4:59 am

This is why I'm in favor of betting markets.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#13  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 04, 2013 12:40 am

Loren Michael wrote:This is why I'm in favor of betting markets.

Ahh, a gambler.

Gambler's almost always lose, the entire city of Las Vegas is built on it, Atlantic City too (well, et least before Sandra had her way), and hundreds of casinos on Indian lands across the nation, not to mention Macao and Dubai and that famous little resort destination city on the Riviera.

Ane be careful, gambling is an addiction.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#14  Postby kennyc » May 04, 2013 12:49 am

Sell! Sell! Sell!

S&P just set a new record today.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#15  Postby Loren Michael » May 04, 2013 2:50 am

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:This is why I'm in favor of betting markets.

Ahh, a gambler.

No. I believe that it's in peoples' interests to have skin in the game of predictions. The media in America functions on people making bold predictions and not being held accountable. People get a boost in publicity and typically suffer little to no loss in the event that the prediction doesn't come to pass. Hits are remembered, nothing else is.

Recall that Nate Silver tried to bet Joe Scarborough in regards to the last presidential election. Recall that Scarborough was making bold, baseless assertions and suffering no consequences for misleading people.

Imagine that the prognosticators of the Iraq War had to pony up cash.

It's a relatively recent idea in statistics, economics, etc. Maybe you're not familiar.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#16  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » May 04, 2013 2:55 am

If I had the money, I'd offer each and every one of these wacko finance predictors a contract where they can put up or shut up. If the take up rate was high enough I think I'd make a decent return.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#17  Postby Loren Michael » May 04, 2013 3:04 am

Shit, people make black swan predictions here all the time. The perfect storm for political and economic upheaval are always just around the corner. A put-up-or-shut-up mechanism would end a lot of what amounts to white noise.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#18  Postby FACT-MAN-2 » May 04, 2013 11:46 pm

Loren Michael wrote:Shit, people make black swan predictions here all the time. The perfect storm for political and economic upheaval are always just around the corner. A put-up-or-shut-up mechanism would end a lot of what amounts to white noise.

No one I know of has said "economic upheaval (is) just around the corner," so please find a quote and substantiate your claim, or retract it as false.

Economic upheaval is probably inevitable, we've already been through a lot of that on a cyclic path for more than a hundred years so it's not too hard to think we've probably got more of it coming. What would be odd is to think we don't.

And then, if you examine how bubbles are created and how they work (and do so objectively and honestly) you'll begin to see why we very likely face "economic upheaval" sometime in the not so distant future.

Only the gambling class seems unconcerned.
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#19  Postby THWOTH » May 05, 2013 2:10 am

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:Gambler's almost always lose, the entire city of Las Vegas is built on it, Atlantic City too (well, et least before Sandra had her way), and hundreds of casinos on Indian lands across the nation, not to mention Macao and Dubai and that famous little resort destination city on the Riviera.

Not to mention hedge-funds, or the bonds, futures and derivatives markets! But then again, if they take a hit there's always a taxpayer somewhere to cover the tab. ;)
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Re: IS he a scientist?

#20  Postby Loren Michael » May 05, 2013 2:45 am

FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Loren Michael wrote:Shit, people make black swan predictions here all the time. The perfect storm for political and economic upheaval are always just around the corner. A put-up-or-shut-up mechanism would end a lot of what amounts to white noise.

No one I know of has said "economic upheaval (is) just around the corner," so please find a quote and substantiate your claim, or retract it as false.

That's not a quote, that's my assessment.
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