The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

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The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#1  Postby GT2211 » Mar 27, 2013 3:54 am

A lot of ink has been spilled over the past three years fretting about the fragility of the economy. But the reality is largely the opposite. The economy has proved to be very resilient. We have weathered external demand shocks, external financial crises, and even fiscal contraction, and all the while economic activity continued to grind higher. Looking back, it seems that the biggest risk the economy faced was the Fed's start/stop approach to quantitative easing. That problem appears solved with open-ended QE linked to economic guideposts.

At the risk of sounding overly optimistic, I am going to go out on a limb: The recovery is here to stay. Not "stay" as in "permanent." I am not predicting the end of the business cycle. But "stay" until some point after the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates, which I don't expect until 2015. This doesn't mean you need to be happy about the pace of growth. But it does mean that a US recession in the next three years should be pretty far down on your list of concerns. ...


CONT'D @ LINK.
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I think I am in agreement. We chugged along at modest, albeit somewhat disappointing, growth the last couple years with housing and gov't austerity being a drag. The latter will probably continue but the housing situation is improving which should further insulate us from another downturn and should result in higher growth rates. But fuck if I know
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#2  Postby Steve » Mar 27, 2013 4:56 am

I want to see some real change in Washington and on Wall Street first. Reading Back from the grave: financial deregulation lives again was not encouraging.

My opinion is humanity is facing down the rise of corporate power. It used to be most people lived in kingdoms and paid taxes to the Lords who owned the land and the people on them. They were basically slaves who lived at his whim. We have returned to this life only we are owned by corporations. We do get a vote every couple of years but the real politics runs 24/7 writing legislation which the average citizen gets almost no say over. They get to vote for someone from a pool of candidates selected by the corporate powers so long as they represent those corporate interests and then this little group goes to work crafting legislation and getting it passed and there is no one representing the average citizen anymore. The whole Washington bubble has become ever more impermeable. It has to get popped. People have to get their representation back.

There was nothing malicious in the way this developed, there is no conspiracy. It is just that people have more fun things to do than pay attention and anyway the media has been poisoned by corporate cash as well.

It will be one hell of a fight and we have barely realized what we are up against. People have to wake the fuck up, first.
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#3  Postby UtilityMonster » Mar 27, 2013 4:39 pm

Steve wrote:We have returned to this life only we are owned by corporations.


If a corporation does not have a monopoly, a duopoly, or oligopoly in providing goods and services, how exactly does it infringe upon anyone's freedom?
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#4  Postby Tbickle » Mar 27, 2013 4:56 pm

Although there are a lot of positives, there are plenty of other ideas that the recovery is going to limp along for quite some time. It won't necessarily be going away, but could be a couple of more years of mixed results and neutral to low growth. I work for a company that sells mostly into the industrial sector and we've been getting a lot of feedback that for some reason things are slowing down. Although 2013 looks to be rebounding well in certain key areas, 2014 is expected to be less robust.

Here's a link to a recent economic report that we receive regularly that has a tremendous amount of information and insight in case anyone is interested...

http://itreconomics.com/sites/default/f ... ch2013.pdf
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#5  Postby Steve » Mar 27, 2013 10:09 pm

UtilityMonster wrote:
Steve wrote:We have returned to this life only we are owned by corporations.


If a corporation does not have a monopoly, a duopoly, or oligopoly in providing goods and services, how exactly does it infringe upon anyone's freedom?

Seriously, you throw these big words down, but you cannot see how corporations have changed over the last, say, 50 years into something that is milking the indolence of the masses.

How have they NOT infringed on peoples freedoms? If they haven't then they are not doing what they were set up to do.
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#6  Postby epete » Mar 28, 2013 12:50 am

UtilityMonster wrote:
Steve wrote:We have returned to this life only we are owned by corporations.


If a corporation does not have a monopoly, a duopoly, or oligopoly in providing goods and services, how exactly does it infringe upon anyone's freedom?


Crony capitalism.
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#7  Postby Loren Michael » Mar 29, 2013 2:01 am

epete wrote:
UtilityMonster wrote:
Steve wrote:We have returned to this life only we are owned by corporations.


If a corporation does not have a monopoly, a duopoly, or oligopoly in providing goods and services, how exactly does it infringe upon anyone's freedom?


Crony capitalism.


Pretty much. That, and political sclerosis, are the issues of the day, and they're deeply intertwined.
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#8  Postby epete » Mar 29, 2013 2:16 am

And it's not just about "freedom" as UM exclusively limited his question to. It's also about "fairness".
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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#9  Postby Steve » Apr 01, 2013 2:51 pm

No, you aren't crazy. The economy is busted
I really don't understand how so many people and economists can be so confident that the American economy will continue to grow in 2013 after almost stalling last quarter, and with the rest of the global economy either in recession or stalled.
Maybe they've been so hypnotized by the rising stock market that they've forgotten that Wall Street is totally disconnected from the real economy.


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Re: The US recovery is here to stay-Tim Duy

#10  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 01, 2013 3:34 pm

As usual with economists plenty of woo gazing.
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