"There are no unemployed people"

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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#21  Postby Keep It Real » Oct 21, 2018 5:32 pm

Creep.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#22  Postby Keep It Real » Oct 21, 2018 5:50 pm

I'm sorry but there is no way back for you IMO. Die.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#23  Postby Keep It Real » Oct 21, 2018 5:52 pm

or live but stop polluting this forum please.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#24  Postby Scot Dutchy » Oct 21, 2018 5:52 pm

Thommo wrote: This standard is the guidelines of the International Labour Organization.


What a load of rubbish. Quoting an organisation that nobody uses. Nice smoke screen. Their English is terrible. Typical of you. You cant answer so throw in a load of rubbish.
Zero hour contracts and minimal fixed hour contracts are illegal here and many other EU countries. You cant compare the data.
The UK depends on them to massage the figures.

ONS has not got a clue and does the governments bidding.

The True Level of Unemployment in UK
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#25  Postby Thommo » Oct 21, 2018 6:15 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
Thommo wrote: This standard is the guidelines of the International Labour Organization.


What a load of rubbish. Quoting an organisation that nobody uses.


What the fuck are you talking about? The EU and the member states of the EU all use that same standard. I even linked you the EU's own page saying as much.*

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... employment
An unemployed person is defined by Eurostat, according to the guidelines of the International Labour Organization, as:

someone aged 15 to 74 (in Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway: 16 to 74 years);
without work during the reference week;
available to start work within the next two weeks (or has already found a job to start within the next three months);
actively having sought employment at some time during the last four weeks.

The unemployment rate is the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the labour force.




You realise this link supports everything I've said and directly contradicts you, I hope?
The labour force is a better guide to unemployment because the claimant count only includes those eligible for benefits.

The Labour Force Survey is done according to internationally agreed criteria by the ILO. This survey is a monthly questionnaire of 60,000 people. It asks them whether they have been actively seeking work and would be able to take work if offered. The ILO method gives a significantly higher figure ( currently 1.69 million Dec 2015) It is worth noting that the ILO questions stick close to the common economic definition of unemployment (actively seeking work) Therefore, this would be a better approximation of unemployment levels in the UK.


As I already said, if this (which is the same in all the EU countries) is not good enough for you, just look up the employment rate instead.

*ETA: About the ILO that Scot alleges "nobody uses":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... ganization
The International Labour Organization (ILO), which will mark its centenary in 2019, is a United Nations agency dealing with labour issues, particularly international labour standards, social protection, and work opportunities for all.[1] The ILO has 187 member states: 186 of the 193 UN member states plus the Cook Islands are members of the ILO.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#26  Postby Keep It Real » Oct 21, 2018 6:28 pm

What's your address Thomo? I'd like to send you some flowers (don't worry Fal you don't need to contribute).
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#27  Postby Thommo » Oct 21, 2018 6:38 pm

Keep It Real wrote:Creep.

Keep It Real wrote:I'm sorry but there is no way back for you IMO. Die.

Keep It Real wrote:What's your address Thomo? I'd like to send you some flowers (don't worry Fal you don't need to contribute).


You must understand that threatening me and then asking for my address is quite unacceptable.

Please, get yourself some help. You're obviously struggling at the moment, and it's spilling over here. Things won't get better if you just continue to ignore the real problem.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#28  Postby Fallible » Oct 21, 2018 7:22 pm

WTF.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#29  Postby SafeAsMilk » Oct 21, 2018 8:49 pm

Oh hey guys, what's going on in this thre--

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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#30  Postby kiore » Oct 21, 2018 11:40 pm


!
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Keep It Real wrote:I'm sorry but there is no way back for you IMO. Die.

are not acceptable here, you know this. This is your second active warning, more like this and you will be suspended.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#31  Postby Scot Dutchy » Oct 22, 2018 9:34 am

Thommo wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
Thommo wrote: This standard is the guidelines of the International Labour Organization.


What a load of rubbish. Quoting an organisation that nobody uses.


What the fuck are you talking about? The EU and the member states of the EU all use that same standard. I even linked you the EU's own page saying as much.*

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... employment
An unemployed person is defined by Eurostat, according to the guidelines of the International Labour Organization, as:

someone aged 15 to 74 (in Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway: 16 to 74 years);
without work during the reference week;
available to start work within the next two weeks (or has already found a job to start within the next three months);
actively having sought employment at some time during the last four weeks.

The unemployment rate is the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the labour force.




You realise this link supports everything I've said and directly contradicts you, I hope?
The labour force is a better guide to unemployment because the claimant count only includes those eligible for benefits.

The Labour Force Survey is done according to internationally agreed criteria by the ILO. This survey is a monthly questionnaire of 60,000 people. It asks them whether they have been actively seeking work and would be able to take work if offered. The ILO method gives a significantly higher figure ( currently 1.69 million Dec 2015) It is worth noting that the ILO questions stick close to the common economic definition of unemployment (actively seeking work) Therefore, this would be a better approximation of unemployment levels in the UK.


As I already said, if this (which is the same in all the EU countries) is not good enough for you, just look up the employment rate instead.

*ETA: About the ILO that Scot alleges "nobody uses":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... ganization
The International Labour Organization (ILO), which will mark its centenary in 2019, is a United Nations agency dealing with labour issues, particularly international labour standards, social protection, and work opportunities for all.[1] The ILO has 187 member states: 186 of the 193 UN member states plus the Cook Islands are members of the ILO.


The ILO depends on governments for data. The ones they can ask. ILO is not used by the EU or any of its agencies. It is an external organisation run by the UN which we all how much worth they are. It cant even get its language right.
It does not take away the definition of unemployment used by ONS. We dont have zero hour contracts or fixed limited contracts. They are illegal. You are doing your best to throw up a smoke screen.

This is Eurostat definition (no ILO): https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/une_esms.htm

It relies on national government supplying data as does not rely your beloved ILO.

These are the interesting definitions which the British government use to massage the figures:
Indicators to supplement unemployment rate:

* Underemployed part-time workers are persons working part-time who wish to work additional hours and are available to do so. Part-time work is recorded as self-reported by individuals.

* Persons seeking work but not immediately available are the sum of persons neither employed nor unemployed who: (a) are actively seeking work during the last 4 weeks but not available for work in the next 2 weeks; or (b)found a job to start in less than 3 months and are not available for work in the next 2 weeks; or (c) found a job to start in 3 months or more; or (d)are passively seeking work during the last 4 weeks and are available for work in the next 2 weeks.

* Persons available to work but not seeking are persons neither employed nor unemployed who want to work, are available for work in the next 2 weeks but are not seeking work.


Underemployed are not considered in the UK as unemployed and are not reported. People on ZHC are not available for work. People doing any training (that can anything at all) are not available.

Sparkling employment figures mask real picture of UK economy

There are two ways in which the Office for National Statistics calculates unemployment. First, there is the claimant count, which picks up the number of people out of work and claiming jobseeker’s allowance or universal credit. In the spring of 2017, the claimant count stood at 785,000.

The claimant count fell out of favour in the 1980s, however, when the then Conservative government made more than 30 changes to the way in which it was calculated, almost all of them leading to a lower total. Greater attention was paid to a broader measure of unemployment based on criteria laid down by the International Labour Organisation. This second method states that a person is unemployed if he or she doesn’t have a job, has looked for work in the past four weeks and can start within a fortnight. This methodology tops up the claimant count with another 735,000 people giving a total of just over 1.5m.

The Sheffield Hallam researchers – Christina Beatty, Steve Fothergill and Tony Gore – say a further 760,000 should be added because they are people hidden on incapacity benefits. Real unemployment, the study says, is just shy of 2.3m.

Parking people on incapacity benefits was a way of keeping the official unemployment total down in the 1980s and 1990s. Despite the population becoming gradually healthier, the number on incapacity benefits rose from 750,000 at the end of the 1970s to more than 2.5 million by the end of the 1990s. Vigorous efforts have subsequently brought the total down, but not by much.

The researchers say many of those claiming incapacity benefits would like to work, but take a dim view of their job prospects because they feel their health is too poor or their disability is too severe, or because they think the chances of finding a job are small, especially when they are in competition with fit and healthy workers likely to catch the eye of potential employers.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#32  Postby Cito di Pense » Oct 22, 2018 10:42 am

My incapacity is an incapacity to suffer bullshit gladly, but it never benefited me much. Imagine what life in the military would have been like for me. KP, brig, KP, brig, wash, rinse, repeat.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#33  Postby Alan B » Oct 22, 2018 11:00 am

Thommo,
You must realise that in the UK the political parties will 'invent' their own definitions of 'employment' and 'unemployment' - basically to score points against the opposition.
If the EU definition is at a variance to their political program, then the EU can get stuffed. 'Cos the UK is speshul or something...

Each political party will, if it gets in power, impose its definition on the bean counters, or maybe not if it becomes politically embarrassing. The UK lot can change their minds at the 'drop of a hat'.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#34  Postby Scot Dutchy » Oct 22, 2018 11:50 am

Alan B wrote:Thommo,
You must realise that in the UK the political parties will 'invent' their own definitions of 'employment' and 'unemployment' - basically to score points against the opposition.
If the EU definition is at a variance to their political program, then the EU can get stuffed. 'Cos the UK is speshul or something...

Each political party will, if it gets in power, impose its definition on the bean counters, or maybe not if it becomes politically embarrassing. The UK lot can change their minds at the 'drop of a hat'.


Yes Alan. ONS is responsible to the government. Definitions are just that and they are not set in stone. When they get so politicised as in the UK they are constantly tweaked. Who thought up ZHC? It costs nothing and saves money.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#35  Postby Thommo » Oct 22, 2018 2:56 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:The ILO depends on governments for data.


Here's the thing Scot. You clearly hadn't heard of the ILO yesterday, and you clearly don't know what you're talking about. Which is why the goalposts are now wandering to pastures new.

I responded to things you previously said, such as:
Scot Dutchy wrote:ONS themselves admit the figures are estimates. They are nowhere near the truth. ONS has no idea who lives, enters or leaves the country

Scot Dutchy wrote:You are comparing ONS non-data with other more accurate data collected not estimated. Or dont you understand?

Scot Dutchy wrote:ONS made a complete balls up when asked how many foreign students were over staying their student visa.

Scot Dutchy wrote:Only after ONS made the estimates using different methods was the mistake shown. Do you trust British government data?

Scot Dutchy wrote:What a load of rubbish. Quoting an organisation that nobody uses.

Scot Dutchy wrote:ONS has not got a clue and does the governments bidding.


This is a string of false assertions, completely unsupported by any source. You say utterly ludicrous things like suggesting nobody uses a UN organisation, that almost every country in the world is a member of, because of their bad English. And now suddenly you think you can lecture about what that organisation is and does?

You clearly don't know the first thing about it. This is the agreed international standard, which fits with economic theory about the best way to estimate the spare capacity in the labour market.

Whilst it's true that the EU is not responsible for collecting the individual raw data in monthly surveys Eurostat does compile their own statistics from the raw data, which is why their unemployment rate for the UK differs from the UK's own (higher) estimate. The principle difference is in the age range that is considered to be members of the labour force.

The EU imposes standards on the data set that is collected for the EU LFS in the 28 Member States of the European Union, 2 candidate countries and 3 countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in accordance with Council Regulation (EEC) No. 577/98 of 9 March 1998 and I can find no record of complaint that the data collection does not meet those standards.

Scot Dutchy wrote:The ones they can ask. ILO is not used by the EU or any of its agencies.


The ILO definition is used by the EU to compile its stats. That has been shown in a link.

If you're suggesting that they aren't contracted out to collect data, then you've fundamentally misunderstood what the ILO even is. Lest we forget the question we were addressing in referring to the ILO was:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Why does not ONS use the accepted definition of unemployed as used in the EU.

And the answer was simple: They do. The whole EU uses the same definition, standardised by the ILO. You were just making shit up.

Scot Dutchy wrote:It is an external organisation run by the UN which we all how much worth they are. It cant even get its language right.


I don't know what you're even referring to, the pages I looked at (which were probably written and translated by web administrators) were perfectly fine. I have highlighted a few instances of poor English occurring just above and below this text, if you're looking for areas that could be improved though.

Scot Dutchy wrote:It does not take away the definition of unemployment used by ONS. We dont have zero hour contracts or fixed limited contracts. They are illegal.


They are legal in over half the countries in the EU, and used commonly in about six, in fact.

However, this is a confusion of a statistical point with a political one. Zero hours contracts are controversial politically, as are other working practices which also vary from country to country. This is not some kind of smoking gun regarding statistical cheating, that is just a radical misunderstanding of the situation, and I'm guessing that once again what's actually at the core here is "Netherlands great, UK sucks" and that's why you've so rapidly lost sight of your initial erroneous assertion that the UK uses a different statistical definition, which has been adequately corrected with sourced information.

One more thing to say:
Zero hours contracts are far from the only practice that affects what hours an "employed person" works. For example:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/produ ... 20180125-1
Image

The labour market is complex. It should be understood neither in political terms, nor in terms of any single statistical measure, nor in terms of a cherry picked set of measures.

Scot Dutchy wrote:This is Eurostat definition (no ILO): https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/une_esms.htm


Yet again, you clearly are not reading your own sources. From that source:
The definitions of employment and unemployment, as well as other survey characteristics follow the definitions and recommendations of the International Labour Organisation.


Scot Dutchy wrote:These are the interesting definitions which the British government use to massage the figures:
Indicators to supplement unemployment rate:

* Underemployed part-time workers are persons working part-time who wish to work additional hours and are available to do so. Part-time work is recorded as self-reported by individuals.


What does that have to do with the unemployment statistic or the UK Scot?

All countries have underemployment as well as unemployment. It's kept as a variety of separate statistics and is publicly available. It has nothing to do with "massaging".

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... me_workers
Image

Scot Dutchy wrote:Underemployed are not considered in the UK as unemployed and are not reported.


In the UK and all the other countries you're looking at. The labour market is complex, and all these different dimensions are measured by different statistics. This is neither something the ONS is doing wrong, nor doing differently to other EU countries.

Scot Dutchy wrote:People on ZHC are not available for work.


In most cases they are actually working. You're confusing a political point for god knows what.

Scot Dutchy wrote:People doing any training (that can anything at all) are not available.


This is true in all EU countries (the UK is not the only country in which people are trained and educated), as well as all other countries. In all cases, in accordance with the ILO standard people in full time education, training or equivalent are not considered part of the labour force.

This is again in line with the view in economics, as well as international standards. And that's why you are literally quoting it as it applies to the whole EU, from their own page right now.



I'm not sure what point you think that's making. The UK is neither the only country that pays disability benefits of some kind, nor the only country who does not include the incapacitated in unemployment figures. This is again based on the conventional economic theory and view among economists and both practices are found throughout the EU and the wider world.

As I keep being forced to repeat, if these concerns are worrying you that you're being misled, look at the employment rate instead of the unemployment rate and look at a wider array of statistics.

No single measure is perfect, because the labour market is complex. But the same problems and debates around what the best measures are exist across the world. This is precisely why there is an agreed international standard, fixed on the broad view from economics of what is best. It has nothing to do with smoke screens, massaging, or your innate distrust of all things British.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#36  Postby Scot Dutchy » Oct 22, 2018 3:12 pm

Butt hurt? The more hurt the more smoke. Your post abounds with unsupported claims, interpretations and opinions.
Were does Eurostat refer to ILO? Not on the tables shown.

One fact: Eurostat is dependent on national agencies to supply them with data. They dont collect it themselves.
ONS is controlled by the UK government.

Just accept you are wrong. This tory government has made 30 changes to the collection of unemployment data. Why?

Stop moving the goalposts we are just talking about the corruption of the UK.
Last edited by Scot Dutchy on Oct 22, 2018 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#37  Postby Thommo » Oct 22, 2018 3:13 pm

Alan B wrote:Thommo,
You must realise that in the UK the political parties will 'invent' their own definitions of 'employment' and 'unemployment' - basically to score points against the opposition.


Whilst I wouldn't put it past them, to the best of my knowledge this has not happened in recent years precisely because the UK is signed up to recognised international standards, and those are enforced at the EU level. In recent years at least. If you're talking about the 80s, then yes, that was a different situation and I'd agree that Thatcher's government has been criticised for constantly tinkering with the definition of unemployment.

Alan B wrote:If the EU definition is at a variance to their political program, then the EU can get stuffed. 'Cos the UK is speshul or something...


Britain, unlike France, has a reputation in the EU for being one of the only countries to diligently stick to EU dictats.

However, this is really beside the point. Normally, on this forum at least, we don't believe things without evidence. So I'm just asking what the evidence for this claim* that the Tories changed the definition of unemployment to gain political advantage actually is.

It's very easy to fall prey to confirmation bias in political discussions, and it's very easy to believe this is the kind of thing politicians will do if they can get away with it (indeed we've already seen reference to a failed attempt to exclude certain types of immigrant from the immigration statistics in this thread) so I did look for evidence for the proposition that the Tories changed the definition of unemployment and could not find any (relating to the current government, again if your point is that Thatcher did it, then yes I agree).

*And just to be crystal clear, I'm talking about the official unemployment/employment statistics and statistical definitions here. People, both politician and non, from all parties or none, regularly misreport stastics or report the wrong statistic to try and score points or spin an issue.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#38  Postby Scot Dutchy » Oct 22, 2018 3:21 pm

The Tories will tell you they're the party that gives the nation proper employment – but even their advisers don't agree

More on the ‘lie’ behind the unemployment numbers

Official statistics and the manipulation of conceptual and technical instruments: implications for research on social security

The use of conceptual and technical instruments

The term 'conceptual instruments' describes the categories used in producing a report (Scott, 1990). The term 'unemployment', for example, is the conceptual instrument used to describe and define what 'unemployment' is. Conceptual instruments are important in administrative routines that produce official reports and statistics. They are also important for social research, in so far as the latter uses such data, particularly for secondary data analysis. The term 'technical instruments' refers to the specific methods used to collect information (Scott, 1990). The current technical instrument used to collect data on unemployment, for example, is the unemployed count.

A recent study has revealed the extent of political interference in the compilation and publication of official reports, with particular references to the Social Fund, young people, and black and minority ethnic groups (Craig, 1998). This article is based on my research into social security provision in Britain over the 1980s and '90s, and draws attention to the problems created by the manipulation of conceptual and technical instruments. The main reports used in my research included recurrent, regular and special records on people registered as unemployed, on claimants and recipients of social security benefits, and on social security benefit expenditure, produced by the Department of Employment (DoE), the Department for Education and Employment (DfEE), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Department of Social Security (DSS). All official records, and recurrent ones in particular, are expected to be comprehensive, continuous, and reliable. Thus, the conceptual instruments, which are used to define the categories, should also be continuous. For example, in order to have continuous, comprehensive, and reliable records of unemployment, we need a standard definition of what 'unemployment' is.
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#39  Postby Thommo » Oct 22, 2018 3:21 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:Butt hurt? The more hurt the more smoke. Your post abounds with unsupported claims, interpretations and opinions.


I've provided more sources in that one post than you have in the whole thread. This criticism is completely detached from what you're replying to. And there's no need to be so childish.

Scot Dutchy wrote:Were does Eurostat refer to ILO? Not on the tables shown.


I've shown you two separate places. You really should pay at least minimal attention:
My link: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... employment
An unemployed person is defined by Eurostat, according to the guidelines of the International Labour Organization, as:

someone aged 15 to 74 (in Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway: 16 to 74 years);
without work during the reference week;
available to start work within the next two weeks (or has already found a job to start within the next three months);
actively having sought employment at some time during the last four weeks.

The unemployment rate is the number of people unemployed as a percentage of the labour force.

Your link: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/met ... e_esms.htm
3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions

The definitions of employment and unemployment, as well as other survey characteristics follow the definitions and recommendations of the International Labour Organisation. The definition of unemployment is further precised in Commission Regulation (EC) No 1897/2000.

This domain comprises collections of monthly, quarterly and annual averages of unemployed persons and unemployment rates. The relevant definitions are as follows:

Unemployed persons are all persons 15 to 74 years of age (16 to 74 years in ES, IT and the UK) who were not employed during the reference week, had actively sought work during the past four weeks and were ready to begin working immediately or within two weeks. Figures show the number of persons unemployed in thousands.

The duration of unemployment is defined as the duration of a search for a job or as the length of the period since the last job was held (if this period is shorter than the duration of search for a job).


Scot Dutchy wrote:One fact: Eurostat is dependent on national agencies to supply them with data. They dont collect it themselves.
ONS is controlled by the UK government.


The data is fine. It's trusted by the EU, for example. No credible economist doubts it, only the representativeness of different measures.

You're the one who keeps making this bogus, unsourced claim.

Scot Dutchy wrote:Just accept you are wrong.


But I'm not. Here's the comment that started this exchange regarding the ILO:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Why does not ONS use the accepted definition of unemployed as used in the EU.


This is obviously your comment and it is obviously wrong.

For some reason you're mistaking your innate hatred of Britain and the unsourced claim that the ONS is doing something wrong regarding data collection for unemployment statistics with having proved some kind of point.

Scot Dutchy wrote:This tory government has made 30 changes to the collection of unemployment data. Why?


I don't believe they have.

Are you thinking of Thatcher's government in the 80s? What is your source for this claim? How meaningful are these changes?
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Re: "There are no unemployed people"

#40  Postby Thommo » Oct 22, 2018 3:22 pm

Oh no, just a regular old cross post. Never mind.

Scot Dutchy wrote:Stop moving the goalposts we are just talking about the corruption of the UK.


No, you're just making unsourced, bigoted shit up.

Where you do provide a source it never says what you say. Like saying "this Tory government" and then quoting text relating to the 1980s.
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