The ramifications of blockchain technology?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1101  Postby quas » Jul 11, 2021 12:55 am

OlivierK wrote:I've got a great investment strategy: go to the racecourse and only bet on horses with at least 1000-1 odds. No mainstream investment offers such great returns, and it doesn't matter if you do this 100 times and 99 of the horses don't win, you still end up with ten times your initial stake.

What could possibly go wrong?


I don't understand this. 1000-1 odds means what?
1 in 1000 chance of winning? How is that even good?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1102  Postby quas » Jul 11, 2021 12:56 am

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1103  Postby OlivierK » Jul 11, 2021 8:59 am

quas wrote:
OlivierK wrote:I've got a great investment strategy: go to the racecourse and only bet on horses with at least 1000-1 odds. No mainstream investment offers such great returns, and it doesn't matter if you do this 100 times and 99 of the horses don't win, you still end up with ten times your initial stake.

What could possibly go wrong?


I don't understand this. 1000-1 odds means what?
1 in 1000 chance of winning? How is that even good?

It means that you get paid $1000 for every $1 you bet, if the horse wins.

Horse-racing odds aren't based on the probability of the horse winning. They're based on what the bookmaker is willing to pay to balance their pool of bets. This is a kind of proxy for winning probability, for sure, because better horses attract more bets - unless, of course, betting on poorer horses is incentivised with greater returns (longer odds). If you can't see the analogy with crypto, then that's fine.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1104  Postby quas » Jul 12, 2021 1:16 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/05/goldman ... -2020.html

Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probability model now predicts that England will win its first major international soccer tournament since 1966.

The model draws on data from around 6,000 matches played since 1980, taking into account a range of factors, including squad strength, recent form, match location and major tournament performances.

However, the Wall Street giant acknowledged when first deploying the model in May that all predictions remain “highly uncertain” — such is the nature of the beautiful game.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1105  Postby quas » Jul 12, 2021 5:40 am

OlivierK wrote:Horse-racing odds aren't based on the probability of the horse winning. They're based on what the bookmaker is willing to pay to balance their pool of bets.


So you are basically betting against the bookmaker?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1106  Postby romansh » Jul 12, 2021 6:36 pm

quas wrote:
So you are basically betting against the bookmaker?

No, it's more, you are betting against competing punters and paying the bookmaker for the privilege.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1107  Postby quas » Jul 13, 2021 12:48 am

Okay, we are running out of time here guys. I'm too stupid to understand how sports betting works.

I only understand this:
https://www.defined.fi/eth/0x84383fb05f ... f8fdbf5cc1

You guys just want to stand by and watch?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1108  Postby felltoearth » Jul 13, 2021 1:57 am

Go ahead. We’re not stopping you.


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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1109  Postby quas » Jul 13, 2021 4:04 am

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1110  Postby quas » Jul 13, 2021 6:21 am

The_Metatron wrote:

Whatever makes you think I'm into gambling?

gibberish describing the thing you do, defining it as black swan farming:

"Take the classic example of Keith Gill (aka DFV). He at one point had a $50MM return using a 50K call option. Even if he had another 99 50K call options in other stocks which expired worthless, just this one right pick would have made him a net profit of $45MM. This phenomenon is known as black swan farming."

You don't get this kind of odds at the casino.
Odds? You're talking about gambling. Call it whatever you like, but it's gambling.


Do you understand the GME WSB phenomena?
If you understand that, then you understand that this is NOT gambling.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1111  Postby minininja » Jul 13, 2021 8:09 am

quas wrote:
The_Metatron wrote:
Odds? You're talking about gambling. Call it whatever you like, but it's gambling.


Do you understand the GME WSB phenomena?
If you understand that, then you understand that this is NOT gambling.

If you think it's not gambling, you don't understand it. You're gambling on the success of meme based market manipulations and there always being someone else to buy in at a higher price so you can cash out before the value drops. Yes, if you always manage to be ahead of the curve, the odds will be in your favour. But any money you get is the result of someone else's loss. Nothing of real world value is being achieved here.
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1112  Postby quas » Jul 13, 2021 8:43 am

OlivierK wrote:As Hermit has noted, if you're in a position to guarantee a good outcome, then trading that for a wide variety of great, good, marginal, and terrible outcomes isn't attractive.

That's gambling. I don't do that.

James and quas are smart enough to realise that it's good to be rich (when it comes to having the capacity to deal with crises). But a poor person can't just *choose* to be rich, they need to get there somehow. If traditional investments of surplus wages won't get them where they want to go fast enough, gambling is a risky way of getting there, but it IS a way of getting there. Of course it's far from guaranteed, but it makes the previously impossible possible. That's always been its appeal.

That's plausible.

But jamest and quas don't seem to be able to grasp that to the already rich, gambling isn't attractive. The rich don't want to take a chance to swap their personal financial circumstances for someone else's, they're fine with what they've already got.

If that's true, you will never get a stock market bubble crash.

And if they come on to a forum populated by often older, educated people from first-world countries, they're likely to interact with people who have already had decades of working at good jobs and investing the proceeds.

I have a 40-year-old construction business. The business had its ups and downs, and nearly went bankrupt in the 98 Asian economic crisis. About 10 years ago, I reinvented the business model completely, and had to start over from zero.

With basic understanding of marketing, I crafted unique selling propositions to my clients such that I have monopolistic hold of the market, in theory. Warren Buffet would say that my business has an "economic moat", which means that there is a defensive barrier that's protecting the business from competitors. In reality though, I'm not making much money, because I don't have a perfect monopoly like Google. There's always market alternatives: there's always competition to the goods & services my business is offering to clients.

Which means that I have to work my ass off for 30% profit, if I'm lucky. I recently completed the biggest construction project eveeeeeer for I thought will be the biggest profit gain of a lifetime. When all is said and done, the only thing I had was the empty satisfaction that I had stolen my business competitor's lunch. Profit was a record low of less than 5%. (The actual figure is too embarrassing to talk about). What a shit lunch. I wish I could turn back time, and force-feed my competitor that lunch.

Some days I fantasise about killing this business. Daydreaming of greener pastures in the food & beverage business. Hence my obsession with lemonade stands. But without basic know-how of the F&B business (any idiot can open up a cookbook and make delicious food, operating a successful F&B business is a completely different beast), plus I'm always too preoccupied with construction, and -most importantly- whatever money I have is tied for business operation so there's no capital money to start another business, I ended up daydreaming indefinitely.

Despite these frustrations with my business, I had thought of my business model as an immortal game. While I could incur losses every now and then, eventually I'd break even and profit. I take construction jobs from both government and private sector, ensuring there's always demand for my business. There is no way I can possibly lose.

COVID happened. Everything went to shit. All government infrastructure projects have been cancelled, all funds poured into this bottomless pit of COVID emergencies. Already, we don't have enough money to pay doctors & healthcare workers working overtime, medical supplies, etc, and yet I saw this picture recently of a military plane and it was spraying disinfectant all over cities. So, you see, the bottomless pit is not an exaggeration.

I should have done this "gambling" thing earlier, but I didn't. Too comfortable doing business. COVID woke me up. Made me realise that I couldn't be opening lemonade stands for the rest of my life.

I put it to james somewhere in this thread that his strategy for investing in crypto to jag enough to buy a house then get out wasn't attractive to me partly because I already own four houses. That's not a boast - none of them are particularly flash - but it's just to illustrate that different people are going to have different perspectives to risk.

I probably have more property than you. Have, not had. But it doesn't matter. Everything went to shit.

Thanks to COVID, recently I bought a property at half price (1/2 MM USD). Good deal right?
I thought I can just flip it, sell at normal market value, easily 2X my money immediately.
Thanks to COVID, no one is buying anything now.

People are scrambling for basic medical necessities, all business sectors affected, who wants to risk on a safe long-term investment buying property? You read the papers and you see even the richest tycoons (a couple 100's MM USD at least) are dying because of COVID, what hope is there left?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1113  Postby quas » Jul 13, 2021 10:51 am

minininja wrote:If you think it's not gambling, you don't understand it. You're gambling on the success of meme based market manipulations and there always being someone else to buy in at a higher price so you can cash out before the value drops. Yes, if you always manage to be ahead of the curve, the odds will be in your favour. But any money you get is the result of someone else's loss. Nothing of real world value is being achieved here.


Alright, that's really rude.

I used my marketing & other business skills so that I could work on the biggest infrastructure project I've ever done
in my life, only to earn >5% profit. And you are perfectly happy with that.

Now that I use the same marketing skills that I have to figure out the next 10,000X investment opportunity. Suddenly you are unhappy for me?

You are insulting me here because you think I am over-compensated; but where were you to compensate me when I was
under-compensated?

If only I could sue you for insulting me, hey maybe I should. Who knows this could be another 10,000X opportunity.
The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem
those who think alike than those who think differently. -Nietzsche
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1114  Postby Hermit » Jul 13, 2021 11:39 am

quas wrote:Alright, that's really rude.

I used my marketing & other business skills so that I could work on the biggest infrastructure project I've ever done
in my life, only to earn >5% profit. And you are perfectly happy with that.

Now that I use the same marketing skills that I have to figure out the next 10,000X investment opportunity. Suddenly you are unhappy for me?

You are insulting me here because you think I am over-compensated; but where were you to compensate me when I was
under-compensated?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1115  Postby The_Metatron » Jul 13, 2021 2:13 pm

quas wrote:
minininja wrote:If you think it's not gambling, you don't understand it. You're gambling on the success of meme based market manipulations and there always being someone else to buy in at a higher price so you can cash out before the value drops. Yes, if you always manage to be ahead of the curve, the odds will be in your favour. But any money you get is the result of someone else's loss. Nothing of real world value is being achieved here.


Alright, that's really rude.

I used my marketing & other business skills so that I could work on the biggest infrastructure project I've ever done
in my life, only to earn >5% profit. And you are perfectly happy with that.

Now that I use the same marketing skills that I have to figure out the next 10,000X investment opportunity. Suddenly you are unhappy for me?

You are insulting me here because you think I am over-compensated; but where were you to compensate me when I was
under-compensated?

If only I could sue you for insulting me, hey maybe I should. Who knows this could be another 10,000X opportunity.

There's more going on here than a gambling problem, I suspect.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1116  Postby quas » Jul 13, 2021 10:19 pm

I wish I had this "gambling" problem earlier. We don't all have unlimited time on this earth, do we?

I got in this crypto investment a bit late. If I had gotten in earlier, I could have put in 10-20K only.
It was launched on 1 Jul for $1. It is now $170.

But I got in a bit late, and like 1 week late. So I put in way too much money. But I don't put in 1/2 MM. I don't have that kind of money lying around.

Now I have earned 1 MM profit in just 2 weeks.
The next day - which is today - I earn another 1 MM.

I have - I think now had*- a good business. During my best years, I would have 20 projects running simultaneously. In my 40 years in the construction industry, working on airports, hotels, shopping malls and luxury houses, I have never made 1 MM in a year. In fact, I have never made 1/2 MM in my best year.

I wish I had this "gambling" problem earlier. I could have been a multi-billionaire 10 years ago. Now, I think I am only walking away with 300-600MM in several months. That makes me a sad panda.

----
*I'm thinking of retiring now! But it seems like I have contractual obligation to do projects several years from today that would earn me 2MM max in a year. FML, couldn't even retire if I wanted to.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1117  Postby felltoearth » Jul 13, 2021 10:36 pm

If you find it difficult to make a 30% profit in construction I reeeeeeeaaaaly don’t recommend food and beverage for you.


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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1118  Postby OlivierK » Jul 13, 2021 11:04 pm

quas wrote:Thanks to COVID, recently I bought a property at half price (1/2 MM USD). Good deal right?
I thought I can just flip it, sell at normal market value, easily 2X my money immediately.
Thanks to COVID, no one is buying anything now.

Right, so you're feeling shafted because of instead of owning property as a low-risk-over-the-long-term way of storing capital, you bought property as a gamble based on the illusion of a sure, quick, high return, and your gamble failed.

And even pre-COVID, it was likely to fail, because your plan was to sell almost immediately for $1,000,000 a property that even on the day you bought it, they couldn't find a $600,000 buyer for.

For what it's worth, COVID has substantially increased the value of all of my properties, since they're not in large cities, but in places in high demand now that large cities are regarded as pandemic risks, and more and more people are looking at smaller cities and towns with better lifestyles and better value properties now that working from home is more accepted. Doesn't really matter since I'm not looking to flip them for a quick buck, but I'm not complaining, as these short, event-driven booms are often what drives sustained value increases over a decades-long investment horizon.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1119  Postby OlivierK » Jul 13, 2021 11:10 pm

quas wrote:That's gambling. I don't do that.

quas wrote:Thanks to COVID, recently I bought a property at half price (1/2 MM USD). Good deal right?
I thought I can just flip it, sell at normal market value, easily 2X my money immediately.
Thanks to COVID, no one is buying anything now.

Quite apart from the weirdness of posting about chasing a short-term 100% return in the same post as claiming you don't gamble, I'm curious about the thinking process behind this transaction.

"Oh great! Thanks to COVID, nobody wants to pay full price for this property so I've got a chance to pick it up for half price!!1!"
"Oh noes!! Thanks to COVID, nobody wants to pay me full price for this property I bought!!1!"

I mean: what the fuck?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1120  Postby quas » Jul 14, 2021 12:31 am

felltoearth wrote:If you find it difficult to make a 30% profit in construction I reeeeeeeaaaaly don’t recommend food and beverage for you.


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F&B is small margin, but consistent money. A non-stop money printing machine.

Construction is bigger margin, but very inconsistent. You don't work all day every day of the year.
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