The ramifications of blockchain technology?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1141  Postby jamest » Oct 07, 2021 7:06 pm


So?
Since the small drop in price following that news, bitcoin has gone up in price over 30% in about two weeks. Fuck China.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1142  Postby newolder » Oct 07, 2021 7:11 pm


I'm reporting a ramification without comment.

Since the small drop in price following that news, bitcoin has gone up in price over 30% in about two weeks.
...

So?
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The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1143  Postby felltoearth » Oct 08, 2021 12:20 pm

My understanding is that the gains in price are due to the fact that most of the mining takes place in China.

IOW no real change in value, only that supply has a temporary limitation.


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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1144  Postby newolder » Oct 08, 2021 3:32 pm

Thinking of "temporary limitation"...

I have no idea how to verify any claims about Bitcoin's use of blockchain technology but figures available to internet searches can be summarised as:

How much Bitcoin is lost so far? About 20% of the ledger.
How much Bitcoin is lost per year? About 4% of the remaining ledger.
How much lost Bitcoin is recovered? About 3% of the loss.

The ramifications? The finite-by-design ledger of Bitcoin will probably outlast me but not by much.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1145  Postby jamest » Oct 08, 2021 5:41 pm

newolder wrote:Thinking of "temporary limitation"...

I have no idea how to verify any claims about Bitcoin's use of blockchain technology but figures available to internet searches can be summarised as:

How much Bitcoin is lost so far? About 20% of the ledger.
How much Bitcoin is lost per year? About 4% of the remaining ledger.
How much lost Bitcoin is recovered? About 3% of the loss.

The ramifications? The finite-by-design ledger of Bitcoin will probably outlast me but not by much.

Any loss would be priced in. So, for example, if we get to a point where only 10 million Btc are left, then there would be more demand and a higher price than for 20 million Btc.

Also, don't forget that each Btc is divisible 100 million times (a satoshi), so there is plenty of buying scope/leeway for losses in quantity.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1146  Postby newolder » Oct 08, 2021 6:17 pm

jamest wrote:...

Also, don't forget that each Btc is divisible 100 million times (a satoshi), so there is plenty of buying scope/leeway for losses in quantity.


When all Bitcoins become lost, the value of 0/108 is 0. Correct?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1147  Postby Matt_B » Oct 08, 2021 11:18 pm

There is no realistic scenario where all Bitcoins get lost short of the death of the internet. They're only truly lost when all copies of the private key go missing or are destroyed. So long as enough people keep multiple copies of their keys in separate locations - as they're advised to do when they've got significant holdings - at least some of the supply is assured.

That's not to say that they'll necessarily be worth anything of course, because the value could tank for all manner of other reasons, but running out of Bitcoin isn't something to get worried about.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1148  Postby jamest » Oct 09, 2021 12:33 am

newolder wrote:
jamest wrote:...

Also, don't forget that each Btc is divisible 100 million times (a satoshi), so there is plenty of buying scope/leeway for losses in quantity.


When all Bitcoins become lost, the value of 0/108 is 0. Correct?

Yes, no bitcoin = zero value. Would you like to predict a date whereby ALL bitcoin have been lost? :grin:

Look, given the satoshi-divisibility of bitcoin itself (100 million), you don't actually need very many bitcoin to have it as the World's reserve currency. I mean, even 1 million bitcoin would = 1 trillion satoshi. And what does the minimum value of a satoshi have to be worth? Well, certainly no lower than the price for the most affordable thing, which I'm guessing would be around 10 cents or pence at today's prices, about $0.1 or similar, then. However, even though there are still about 18+ million BTC, a satoshi is still worth only 0.02 cents (NOT dollars). Indeed, bitcoin would have to reach a price of $1 million to reach parity with the CENT. And, therefore, Btc value would have to be $10 million before one satoshi had the current buying-power of 10 cents/pence/etc.. (notwithstanding current inflation levels) . *#

* http://www.cointelegraph.com/news/bitco ... ith-1-cent

# Bear in mind that the link is dated to December 18th 2020 when bitcoin was worth less than half its current value, at about $23K, though this hardly impacts upon the point being made. Which is that right now bitcoin's price would have to be over $1 million before the satoshi reached parity with 1 cent.

... Let that sink in, precisely because it informs you HOW MUCH undervalued bitcoin is, relative to the USD in these present times.

You mentioned China, but you have to ask yourself why 'they' are so worried about bitcoin/etc. if they have any faith in their own currency. The question answers itself, even though China is on the verge of becoming THE next superpower. When China issues threats against its own citizens, you know (the people who understand why threats are made) that it's time to buy bitcoin!!!!!

Anyone with half a brain, which includes all cryptocurrency investors (not short-term gamblers), got into crypto precisely because they knew that there would come a time when fiat currency was in danger of collapse and that universal digital currency would become the world's next revolutionary mode of financial interaction.

Have you seen what's going on in the USA? A debt CRISIS narrowly averted by 2 votes, just yesterday, but only until December of this year, the consequence of which will be [for the first time ever] a default on the national debt if they don't resolve their issues before the end of the year. A default on the national debt is pretty much the end-game for the USD and thus all fiat currencies tied to it, which amounts to all currencies (save that of El Salvador, currently). **

** http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58820071

That's how close we are, Sir, before the whistle blows to PANIC !!!!! Financial armageddon, followed by all that it ensues.

That's why I keep telling everyone here to dilute their worth that's tied to fiat currency. If you have too much money in the bank or tied to shares/bonds, then buy some crypto, or precious metals, or art/antiques, etc.. Or buy property/land, which will retain a value regardless of the currency in which it is sold. However, with crypto nearing the end of an up-till-now traditional 4-yearly cycle revolving around bitcoin's 'halving', I would no longer advise putting too much into crypto as-of-now. Regardless, even though I'm planning to get out of crypto within the next two or three months, I won't be leaving the bulk of my gains in the bank, nor buying shares/bonds, etc.. And I would certainly be looking to get back into crypto at the first sniff of the next bear-market being over, which, traditionally, should equate to about Xmas 2022.

I'll keep on repeating the message until it's too late. You never know, someone might listen.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1149  Postby Spearthrower » Oct 09, 2021 4:55 am

Billions of people will die - you heard it here! When? Tomorrow? No! But sometime in the conveniently ambiguous future. REPENT!
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1150  Postby Macdoc » Oct 09, 2021 7:55 am

So what happens to bit coin when a CME hits.
At least you might be able to trade physical gold for a carrot.
I think P T had the right of it.....there IS one born every minute.

and

Bitcoin has a carbon footprint comparable to that of New Zealand, producing 36.95 megatons of CO2 annually, according to Digiconomist.

The cryptocurrency consumes more electricity than the entire annual energy consumption of the Netherlands, Cambridge University researchers say.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/05/bitcoin ... print.html

Little wonder China banned the mining.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1151  Postby newolder » Oct 09, 2021 9:26 am

Matt_B wrote:There is no realistic scenario where all Bitcoins get lost short of the death of the internet. They're only truly lost when all copies of the private key go missing or are destroyed. So long as enough people keep multiple copies of their keys in separate locations - as they're advised to do when they've got significant holdings - at least some of the supply is assured.

That's not to say that they'll necessarily be worth anything of course, because the value could tank for all manner of other reasons, but running out of Bitcoin isn't something to get worried about.

Because people are not doing "as advised" Bitcoin attrition is measured at a few percent per annum. Bitcoin attrition happens without the death of the internet all the time. Continued attrition results in total loss - it's as realistic as anything else in this topic. I'm not worried about this, it's just a natural/inevitable consequence of the finite model.
jamest wrote:...
Yes, no bitcoin = zero value. Would you like to predict a date whereby ALL bitcoin have been lost? :grin:

At current rates of attrition, 4% per annum, this depreciation calculator says it will all be gone by 2151
Last edited by newolder on Oct 09, 2021 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1152  Postby Spearthrower » Oct 09, 2021 9:29 am

newolder wrote:
Because people are not doing "as advised" Bitcoin attrition is measured at a few percent per annum. Bitcoin attrition happens without the death of the internet all the time. Continued attrition results in total loss - it's as realistic as anything else in this topic. I'm not worried about this, it's just a natural/inevitable consequence of the finite model.


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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1153  Postby Matt_B » Oct 09, 2021 9:23 pm

newolder wrote:
Matt_B wrote:There is no realistic scenario where all Bitcoins get lost short of the death of the internet. They're only truly lost when all copies of the private key go missing or are destroyed. So long as enough people keep multiple copies of their keys in separate locations - as they're advised to do when they've got significant holdings - at least some of the supply is assured.

That's not to say that they'll necessarily be worth anything of course, because the value could tank for all manner of other reasons, but running out of Bitcoin isn't something to get worried about.

Because people are not doing "as advised" Bitcoin attrition is measured at a few percent per annum. Bitcoin attrition happens without the death of the internet all the time. Continued attrition results in total loss - it's as realistic as anything else in this topic. I'm not worried about this, it's just a natural/inevitable consequence of the finite model.
jamest wrote:...
Yes, no bitcoin = zero value. Would you like to predict a date whereby ALL bitcoin have been lost? :grin:

At current rates of attrition, 4% per annum, this depreciation calculator says it will all be gone by 2151


Your model assumes constant depreciation. However, you should consider that Bitcoin holders form two populations with different depreciation rates. One of these doesn't look after their keys properly and suffers higher than average loss. The other population does and suffers negligible losses, because it require a catstrophic event - like 3 SSDs in different locations failing at the same time - for that to happen. Eventually, when the first of those populations has lost most of their keys, the overall loss rate will tend towards the latter group.

I suppose these groups aren't fixed in size and, as new people buy into crypto the former group is bound to expand a little and the latter will shrink. However, when it just takes one person out of presently millions to maintain a supply of Bitcoin, I'll stick with my 'death of the internet' prediction.

That said, I'd agree that Bitcoin will almost certainly be worthless by 2151, probably long before then. It'll just be for different reasons.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1154  Postby Macdoc » Oct 10, 2021 2:01 am

Yes, no bitcoin = zero value. Would you like to predict a date whereby ALL bitcoin have been lost?

When the next X -class CME hits square on. At least physical gold might be valuable but a good spring, a market garden and cow would be my choice.

Fucking speculation is the ruin of civilization. :nono: ...
tulips anyone...

at least China is clamping down in numerous areas. :coffee:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1155  Postby newolder » Oct 10, 2021 2:00 pm

Matt_B wrote:...

Your model assumes constant depreciation.

My calculation is based upon publicly available data.

However, you should consider that Bitcoin holders form two populations with different depreciation rates. One of these doesn't look after their keys properly and suffers higher than average loss. The other population does and suffers negligible losses, because it require a catstrophic event - like 3 SSDs in different locations failing at the same time - for that to happen. Eventually, when the first of those populations has lost most of their keys, the overall loss rate will tend towards the latter group.

I suppose these groups aren't fixed in size and, as new people buy into crypto the former group is bound to expand a little and the latter will shrink. However, when it just takes one person out of presently millions to maintain a supply of Bitcoin, I'll stick with my 'death of the internet' prediction.

Arguing opinion against data might work in churches and cults but not with me. Anyhoo, the result of your opinion is a centralised currency "...one person out of presently millions..." which is anathema to the idea of the Bitcoin. :think:

That said, I'd agree that Bitcoin will almost certainly be worthless by 2151, probably long before then. It'll just be for different reasons.

It's what the current data shows. :thumbup:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1156  Postby hackenslash » Oct 10, 2021 7:27 pm

newolder wrote:it's just a natural/inevitable consequence of the finite model.


Shades of Mendel's Accountant...

ETA: Incidentally, while I hate to do this, I left detailed responses for James in two threads and they've gone entirely unacknowledged. Bad form, what?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1157  Postby Matt_B » Oct 11, 2021 3:30 am

newolder wrote:Arguing opinion against data might work in churches and cults but not with me. Anyhoo, the result of your opinion is a centralised currency "...one person out of presently millions..." which is anathema to the idea of the Bitcoin. :think:


OK. You win.

I guess anyone who also argues that Bitcoin isn't inevitably headed to the moon is also arguing opinion against data, because that's what the past ten years of growth data indicates. I mean, it's not like naively extrapolating a trend from the past decade forward for the next century or so could possible produce an inaccurate result now, is it? :roll:

Seriously, we both appear to be in agreement that Bitcoin is garbage and likely to end up worthless before too long. I just think that there are better arguments to be making than that the world might run out of it 130 years from now. Things like the energy usage, government regulation, transaction latency, lack of price stability, money laundering, etc. would seem to limit its chances rather more in the short term.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1158  Postby Hermit » Oct 11, 2021 3:46 am

hackenslash wrote:
newolder wrote:it's just a natural/inevitable consequence of the finite model.

ETA: Incidentally, while I hate to do this, I left detailed responses for James in two threads and they've gone entirely unacknowledged. Bad form, what?

JamesT is an intellectual giant. Why would someone who pulled the rug from under the likes of Einstein and Kant, even Darwin* bother interacting with a nobody like you?

*Yes, he really did write that here.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#1159  Postby jamest » Oct 30, 2021 12:47 am

Hermit wrote:
hackenslash wrote:
newolder wrote:it's just a natural/inevitable consequence of the finite model.

ETA: Incidentally, while I hate to do this, I left detailed responses for James in two threads and they've gone entirely unacknowledged. Bad form, what?

JamesT is an intellectual giant. Why would someone who pulled the rug from under the likes of Einstein and Kant, even Darwin* bother interacting with a nobody like you?

*Yes, he really did write that here.

I should probably do this in the particular discussion that hack links to, but since I can only be bothered to post here these days about one day a month (? I dunno, I'll let the fact checkers tell me otherwise), I'll apologise here instead. I'm sorry hack. I do remember reading your responses and thinking that you made a very persuasive argument. If I can ever get out of this 'bad place' that I'm in, regarding this place, then maybe one day we can have constructive discussions again.

That's not a cop-out, I just generally cannot be arsed coming here any more. The only analogy I have for this place is having a bad back every time I enter. I'm sure that you yourself get my gist.

Having said that, I'm still passionate about certain things/concepts. One of those things is God, of course. Others include the members here (beings), including your good self, ALL of whom I would seek to help if I had the means to do so. And since I've come to 'know' so many of you over the years, I will continue to frequent this forum, even infrequently, whilst I still can, if I feel that I know something which might help any individual member here. Having failed with God, the next best concept was riches, hence this thread about blockchain/bitcoin/crypto. Perhaps the God stuff did me no favours in terms of garnering favour from a largely atheist membership, but if anyone doubts that I haven't at least tried to help you all financially here for the last 2.5+ years, even when I've eventually been proven right, then I don't know what else I can do, other than "bend a spoon".

At this juncture, when I [actually] feel that most of you dislike me as though I were a nazi or suchlike, you can hardly blame me for not feeling like participating most of the time. However, I'm not a coward or resentful and will continue to try and help you all when I can. Therefore, following this post comes another post regarding the revolution of crypto/blockchain. Indeed, I only came here to post THAT, but felt compelled to post THIS in response to what hack said.

Best wishes, gents.
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Beware, the penultimate revolution is coming

#1160  Postby jamest » Oct 30, 2021 1:18 am

Look at the state of the world. ALL corrupt centralisation(s). Decentralisation is THE next big social/industrial/commercial/artistic (global) revolution as it will undermine those 'central' corrupt fuckers!! Which means, you will ultimately get to live your life to the most part unconstrained by centralised authorities, as your social life, as well as your commerce/industry/artistry, will be beyond their powers to govern. In effect, your 'government' will revolve around the particular decentralised cryptocurrencies you invest in.

Ultimately, as their ship CONTINUES to sink, all the centralised powers will have left is THREATS against individuals who participate in decentralised activities which threaten 'The State' (and Nationalism, one of the greatest social diseases ever imposed upon mankind, after religion). We've already seen these threats to some extent in China and other places, but they're going to get much worse to the point of 'revolution', whereby either the centralised or decentralised army ceases to exist.

Personally, I don't see how the centralised army wins without culling the internet. However, in my opinion the centralised powers will ultimately undermine themselves by doing this too... to the point of failure.

I think that this revolution is inevitable within the next few decades. The Absolute Beauty of it all is, that no threats or weapons are required (on the part of the revolutionaries) in order for it to happen. How wonderful would that be?!

Play your part. Exchange, if you can, the bulk of your fiat for some form of crypto!!!!!! I've done it, since early 2019, and I'm not rich. At least, I wasn't then.

We're reaching the point now when investing in cryptocurrency isn't just about making a 'few quid'. It's a revolution in the making. A revolution which, if you are young, will witness to its full extent. A revolution which historians will eventually talk about moreso than ANY human revolution which has occured before that.

And THAT is why I have to mention this here right now, because just as I advised you to buy bitcoin in February of 2019, it would be remiss of me not to tell you of where this is all going.

I'm almost as sure of this as I'm sure that God exists. That the next and biggest human revolution of all time, is already happening.
There's still time for you guys to educate yourselves and to do something about it. And that's why I am posting, tonight.

Cheers.
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