The ramifications of blockchain technology?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#161  Postby Macdoc » May 12, 2019 7:55 pm

I disagree money is a medium of exchange.

This covers it well

Money is a way of measuring wealth but is not wealth in itself. A chest of gold coins or a fat wallet of bills is of no use whatsoever to a wrecked sailor alone on a raft. He needs real wealth, in the form of a fishing rod, a compass, an outboard motor with gas, and a female companion. But this ingrained and archaic confusion of money with wealth is now the main reason we are not going ahead full tilt with the development of our technological genius for the production of more than adequate food, clothing, housing, and utilities for every person on earth.


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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#162  Postby Thommo » May 12, 2019 8:55 pm

I think it's 100% accepted in economics that money is a medium of exchange. The archetypal one, in fact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money
The main functions of money are distinguished as: a medium of exchange, a unit of account, a store of value and sometimes, a standard of deferred payment.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/me ... change.asp
A medium of exchange is an intermediary instrument or system used to facilitate the sale, purchase or trade of goods between parties. For a system to function as a medium of exchange, it must represent a standard of value. Further, all parties must accept that standard. In modern economies, the medium of exchange is currency.

Money as a Medium of Exchange

Money enables anyone who possesses it to participate as an equal market player. When consumers use money to purchase an item or service, they are effectively making a bid in response to an asking price.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medium_of_exchange
Medium of exchange is one of the three fundamental functions of money in mainstream economics.[1][2][3] It is a widely accepted token which can be exchanged for goods and services. Because it can be exchanged for any good or service it acts as an intermediary instrument and avoids the limitations of barter; where what one wants has to be exactly matched with what the other has to offer.[4][5]

Most forms of money can act as mediums of exchange including commodity money, representative money and most commonly fiat money. Representative and fiat money often exist in digital form as well as physical tokens such as coins and notes.


Money is a type of wealth (and that relationship depends on external circumstances, as with any commodity), it is not the same as wealth, and it's not always appropriate to measure wealth with money. The two are in relation with one another, but are certainly not identical.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#163  Postby LucidFlight » May 12, 2019 11:39 pm

It's been more than 15 years since I studied economics, but this is basic stuff. Economics 101, if you will. Good golly. I can almost hear my lecturer talking about it now.

Functions of Money

Money is often defined in terms of the three functions or services that it provides. Money serves as a medium of exchange, as a store of value, and as a unit of account. Medium of exchange. Money's most important function is as a medium of exchange to facilitate transactions.

https://www.cliffsnotes.com/study-guides/economics/money-and-banking/functions-of-money

The subject of money tends to follow from a discussion about the barter system and the inconvenience of, say, trading pigs for a certain number of onions — you know, that sort of thing.

ETA

If you want to talk about the difference between money and wealth, that's a rather different discussion.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#164  Postby Macdoc » May 13, 2019 12:17 am

The point being that money is not wealth. Unless they are chocolate coins.

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#165  Postby Thommo » May 13, 2019 12:28 am

There are two meanings of "is" in the English language:

"Money is wealth" could mean "Money is identical to wealth", in this usage, you're right, they aren't identical, there's a lot more to wealth than money.

"Money is wealth" could mean "Money is an example, or type, of wealth", in this usage the same would not be true. Money is wealth in this usage. One way of storing your wealth (in our society, in our time, or in times and societies like the ones we live in) is money. In fact it's arguably the principal and most important example of wealth for all of modern history. Without ever being the whole picture.

The problem with saying "money is not wealth" is that there was no context which would restrict the meaning to the first usage of "is", and without context the standard convention of English is that a rejection covers all possible definitions of a term. We have seen this a lot on these boards with people objecting that most of us members aren't true atheists™ because we don't reject God and one definition of atheism™ is the rejection of God. Whilst that is true, it is beside the point, as we are atheists by the broader definition.

I'm not sure that the first of these is really up for debate here, but assuming that's what you mean, I agree. Money is not identical to wealth.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#166  Postby LucidFlight » May 13, 2019 12:44 am

"Power is power."
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#167  Postby Thommo » May 13, 2019 12:46 am

Hard to argue with that. I guess the attribution? Maybe I could complain that it was actually G R R Martin who said it? :ask:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#168  Postby jamest » May 13, 2019 2:10 am

Thommo wrote:Sure, no problem.

Just to be 100% clear I'm not against regulation, I certainly wasn't arguing against it. And whilst there are areas where some regulation needs removed or reworked, my own view is that there are far more areas where more regulation is needed. There are also areas where either approach could in theory work and I don't much care which, as long as reform is implemented (e.g. closing tax loopholes).

I would say that wealth is not independent of money, whilst being separate they are undoubtedly intertwined. Money has value, it can be used as a store of wealth, or a medium of exchange to allow investment. Bitcoin is being used almost exclusively as the first, despite having been envisaged as the second. This is one of the reasons that whilst I'm very happy for James that (were he to sell) his gambling would be paying off, I personally have little confidence in Bitcoin.

If I just wanted to gamble I'd go to the casino. My investment in assets such as bitcoin is a consequence of studying technical analysis to the point where I feel confident that:

a) The bear market-cycle has bottomed and almost certainly over.
b) The asset will generally rise in price for the next year or two. I.e., the trend has reversed.

I admit that there's no guarantees and that it could all go pear-shaped, not least in the short-term (due to the recent crazy pump), but the majority of successful traders use TA in combination with strategy and money/risk management (placing stop losses which ensure no catastrophe ensues) to gain a hedge at the table so to speak to consistently earn an income. Technical analysis works because [say] 70% of the time the price of X reacts predictably to various indicators. Thus, a disciplined trader might be right 70% of the time. Trading is a skill.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#169  Postby Thommo » May 13, 2019 2:16 am

You asked me not to talk with you, so I haven't been.

But no, saying that 70% of whatever-whatever imaginary reasons means technical analysis works is a nonsense argument.

You're gambling. Right now - if you cashed out, which you aren't - you'd be up, and the only thing I said about that was I was happy for you.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#170  Postby OlivierK » May 13, 2019 4:57 am

jamest wrote:Technical analysis works because [say] 70% of the time the price of X reacts predictably to various indicators.

Sure, but the "indicators" are internal to technical analysis, not based on external reality. If technical analysis shows $6000 as a Bitcoin support level, then lots of people will put their buy levels at $6000. And then the Bitcoin price is likely to bounce off the $6000 level, unless it doesn't. That doesn't show that technical analysis predicts prices directly, it shows that technical analysis can be used to predict the market behaviour of technical analysis disciples. And... yeah, no shit.

Getting into technical analysis for crypto makes a certain amount of sense, though, because the vapourware aspect of crypto means that there aren't actually many real-world influences on price (like economic data for currencies, or profit or takeover announcements for stocks), so technical analysis - even though it's woo - has an exaggeratedly significant effect on the markets that it would be negligent to ignore.

jamest wrote:Thus, a disciplined trader might be right 70% of the time. Trading is a skill.

A trader being right 70% of the time can still lose out. Some of the best traders I worked with were right pretty much 50% of the time, and sometimes even less. They just knew how to run their profits, and cut their losses. And even those guys sometimes fucked up spectacularly. Hopefully you don't.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#171  Postby Macdoc » May 13, 2019 5:29 am

Reminds me of Jamest thinking logic has aught to do with reality....the world of ought. :roll:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#172  Postby Svartalf » May 13, 2019 10:05 am

Macdoc wrote:The point being that money is not wealth. Unless they are chocolate coins.

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#173  Postby jamest » May 13, 2019 10:58 am

OlivierK wrote:
jamest wrote:Technical analysis works because [say] 70% of the time the price of X reacts predictably to various indicators.

Sure, but the "indicators" are internal to technical analysis, not based on external reality. If technical analysis shows $6000 as a Bitcoin support level, then lots of people will put their buy levels at $6000. And then the Bitcoin price is likely to bounce off the $6000 level, unless it doesn't. That doesn't show that technical analysis predicts prices directly, it shows that technical analysis can be used to predict the market behaviour of technical analysis disciples. And... yeah, no shit.

Getting into technical analysis for crypto makes a certain amount of sense, though, because the vapourware aspect of crypto means that there aren't actually many real-world influences on price (like economic data for currencies, or profit or takeover announcements for stocks), so technical analysis - even though it's woo - has an exaggeratedly significant effect on the markets that it would be negligent to ignore.

jamest wrote:Thus, a disciplined trader might be right 70% of the time. Trading is a skill.

A trader being right 70% of the time can still lose out. Some of the best traders I worked with were right pretty much 50% of the time, and sometimes even less. They just knew how to run their profits, and cut their losses. And even those guys sometimes fucked up spectacularly. Hopefully you don't.

I'm not actually trading yet, as such, just investing. I do plan to be trading very soon though. I've been taking my time as I need to be very sure what I'm doing. Money/asset and risk/reward management is key, I think, to getting it right. There are some cool bots out there to help the cause, I've recently discovered. I especially like the 'trailing profit' bots. Anyone semi-interested should check-out the 3commas website, or similar.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#174  Postby jamest » May 13, 2019 11:16 am

Thommo wrote:You asked me not to talk with you, so I haven't been.

But no, saying that 70% of whatever-whatever imaginary reasons means technical analysis works is a nonsense argument.

You're gambling. Right now - if you cashed out, which you aren't - you'd be up, and the only thing I said about that was I was happy for you.

Punters at a roulette table are gamblers but the owners of the casino are not even though they're playing the punters at the same table. These owners are not gamblers because they know without a doubt that the odds are hedged in their favour and that in the long-term they will profit.
Similarly, smart traders can use specific tools/indicators and money/risk-reward management to stack the odds in their favour sufficient to know that they will profit in the long-term as long as they remain disciplined and steadfastly adhere to a particular strategy. Anyone who knows that they will make profits long-term is not a gambler.

I'm not currently a trader though that is the short-term plan. I've made significant investments though which were not a gamble as I used fundamental and technical analysis to determine (in February) that the market had almost certainly bottomed and was soon to reverse in trend. Thankfully I was right but being honest I wasn't expecting anything like the kind of gains my assets have acquired in less than 3 months. The worry is of course that there could be a big plunge on the cards, but long-term I'm still expecting the uptrend to continue so I'm holding.

Would I advise anyone to buy in at this precise moment? No, I'd wait for confirmation that the recent pump will hold. But if there is a big dump, buy the dip.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#175  Postby jamest » May 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Wow, bitcoin through the 8K threshold as I type this. I'm quite stunned to the point that I want to start typing conspiracy theories along the line that Donald Trump is laundering his savings, or suchlike. On a serious note, surely there is an institution behind all of this because your average Joe cannot create this kind of parabolic action.

Crazy stuff, but what a thrill either way.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#176  Postby jamest » May 14, 2019 12:13 am

Oh, I should mention that the leading crypto exchange (Binance) has been more-or-less closed for the last week after being hacked for 7K BTC. Afaik it's due to reopen tomorrow so whatever you do (if you do anything) don't do it until you've observed the effects of this event. There may or may not be unimagined consequences to this for reasons surrounding a stable coin (Tether)(notwithstanding the hacking event also) which I won't bore you with. The bottom-line, just don't do anything tomorrow, at least until the effects of this event can be ascertained. In other words, tomorrow (Tuesday) is not a good day to buy/sell crypto. Stand back and observe.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#177  Postby Hermit » May 14, 2019 4:09 am

jamest wrote:...don't do anything tomorrow ... tomorrow (Tuesday) is not a good day to buy/sell crypto.

Yeah, thanks for the advice. I will certainly resist the temptation of buying cryptocurrency tomorrow - or any other day ending with a "y" for that matter. Image
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#178  Postby newolder » May 14, 2019 8:35 am

jamest wrote:Wow, bitcoin through the 8K threshold as I type this. I'm quite stunned to the point that I want to start typing conspiracy theories along the line that Donald Trump is laundering his savings, or suchlike. On a serious note, surely there is an institution behind all of this because your average Joe cannot create this kind of parabolic action.

Crazy stuff, but what a thrill either way.

It is back to the value it had at the end of July last year. A 10 month investment with zero return. Sounds wonderful, tell me more.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#179  Postby Cito di Pense » May 14, 2019 12:32 pm

newolder wrote:
jamest wrote:Wow, bitcoin through the 8K threshold as I type this. I'm quite stunned to the point that I want to start typing conspiracy theories along the line that Donald Trump is laundering his savings, or suchlike. On a serious note, surely there is an institution behind all of this because your average Joe cannot create this kind of parabolic action.

Crazy stuff, but what a thrill either way.

It is back to the value it had at the end of July last year.


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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#180  Postby jamest » May 14, 2019 1:42 pm

newolder wrote:
jamest wrote:Wow, bitcoin through the 8K threshold as I type this. I'm quite stunned to the point that I want to start typing conspiracy theories along the line that Donald Trump is laundering his savings, or suchlike. On a serious note, surely there is an institution behind all of this because your average Joe cannot create this kind of parabolic action.

Crazy stuff, but what a thrill either way.

It is back to the value it had at the end of July last year. A 10 month investment with zero return. Sounds wonderful, tell me more.

What a dummy remark. The value of all assets rise and fall and if anyone bought bitcoin last July when the trend was down then more fool them. The key is timing your investment correctly, obviously. :nono:
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