The ramifications of blockchain technology?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#21  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 2:25 pm

Thommo wrote:
How much increase, and on what date are you forecasting?

I'm anticipating a high of 50-150K after the next bull run, which I think will begin within the next year and peak around 18 months later.

Putting my cards on the table, I think bitcoin is a terrible investment with almost no underlying value. It's incredibly volatile and risky.

Of course it's risky and volatile. So is your fiat. I did consider buying some actual gold and I still may do so, given it's VAT free and exempt from CGT within the UK. I don't envisage any great profits from that though. Still, it's a safe option I suppose.

I know my decision to buy some bitcoin is risky, but the potential rewards means that I'm playing the game.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#22  Postby Thommo » Feb 16, 2019 2:41 pm

jamest wrote:
Thommo wrote:
How much increase, and on what date are you forecasting?

I'm anticipating a high of 50-150K after the next bull run, which I think will begin within the next year and peak around 18 months later.


Yeah, ok. Not a chance I'm afraid. This is not a realistic expectation, sadly.

jamest wrote:Of course it's risky and volatile. So is your fiat.


No, this is like comparing russian roulette to driving to work. Technically both are risky, but they are not in the same category. Honestly you need to be warned - it's very likely you could lose everything you invest, what you're talking about is gambling, pure and simple.

Bitcoin has lost 82% of its value since about 18 months ago. When was the last time the Euro, Dollar, Pound or any other major currency lost 82% of its value in a short span of time?

You may as well say that Venezualan gilts are risky, but so are German gilts.

jamest wrote:I did consider buying some actual gold and I still may do so, given it's VAT free and exempt from CGT within the UK. I don't envisage any great profits from that though. Still, it's a safe option I suppose.


Gold may be somewhat safe, but bitcoin and gold should not be compared.

Seriously, I hope I'm wrong, but since you're saying you've invested a "significant" sum here you have to accept you're gambling against losing almost every penny of that sum.

jamest wrote:I know my decision to buy some bitcoin is risky, but the potential rewards means that I'm playing the game.


I wish you luck, but I cannot in good conscience condone this.

Edit: typo!
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#23  Postby Scot Dutchy » Feb 16, 2019 2:44 pm

Phrases like "a fool and his money is easily parted" do come to mind. I think you are plain mad James. Still falling for the con.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#24  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 2:55 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:Phrases like "a fool and his money is easily parted" do come to mind. I think you are plain mad James. Still falling for the con.

In what sense is it a con?

I've been studying the market for several months, even taking a couple of online courses to educate myself. I understand the risks. I am strongly of the opinion that the bear market is close to an end and the bottom is close, so I've made the decision to invest at this time before the anticipated bull run. Time will tell.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#25  Postby Thommo » Feb 16, 2019 3:18 pm

What online course did you take and how did that lead you to think bitcoin was a good choice of investment?

Did this course give you the idea that the minor bubble in 2013 and the extreme bubble in 2017 "looking" similar meant anything, let alone that the bubble would repeat but magnified another order of magnitude?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#26  Postby Cito di Pense » Feb 16, 2019 3:18 pm

jamest wrote:Time will tell.


You would have been better off buying Vodafone. You'd think they've sunk about as low as they can go, and they still promise a dividend of 5+ per cent per year. Like Bitcoin, the lowest price Vodafone can reach is 0, but at least they own some assets.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#27  Postby Thommo » Feb 16, 2019 3:21 pm

Cito di Pense wrote:...dividend... but at least they own some assets.


:this:

I've just chopped it up to include only the really, really, really important points.

There's a reason there's a price to earnings column in the share listings.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#28  Postby Cito di Pense » Feb 16, 2019 3:24 pm

Thommo wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:...dividend... but at least they own some assets.


:this:

I've just chopped it up to include only the really, really, really important points.

There's a reason there's a price to earnings column in the share listings.


Didn't I bring in something like "price-to-book", too? VOD's PE has not been shiny, but if they ever produce some positive news, look for a 20% rebound almost overnight.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#29  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 3:32 pm

Thommo wrote:
jamest wrote:
Thommo wrote:
How much increase, and on what date are you forecasting?

I'm anticipating a high of 50-150K after the next bull run, which I think will begin within the next year and peak around 18 months later.


Yeah, ok. Not a chance I'm afraid. This is not a realistic expectation, sadly.

Why not? The bull run of 2017 led to a price nearly 20 times higher than that of the bull run in 2013. If that was repeated in [say] 2021, bitcoin would actually peak at close to 400K. Which means that my anticipations are quite conservative, I think.

jamest wrote:Of course it's risky and volatile. So is your fiat.


No, this is like comparing russian roulette to driving to work. Technically both are risky, but they are not in the same category. Honestly you need to be warned - it's very likely you could lose everything you invest, what you're talking about is gambling, pure and simple.

I know this, but thanks for the warning. You place too much trust in centralised fiat, Sir:

https://multi-act.com/evolution-of-mone ... cy-system/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... el-roubini


Bitcoin has lost 82% of its value since about 18 months ago. When was the last time the Euro, Dollar, Pound or any other major currency lost 82% of its value in a short span of time?

The volatility of cryptocurrency, combined with an opinion that the bear market is about to end, is the precise reason why I've invested into it.

Gold may be somewhat safe, but bitcoin and gold should not be compared.

There are obvious differences, but as a potential store of wealth in exchange for fiat, they are identical. There are less than 20 million bitcoin in the whole world. If 70 billion people ever decide to abandon their fiat ship, cryptocurrency will be the desert island that most of them swim towards.

The main reason people will choose crypto over gold is that bitcoin is decentralised.

I wish you luck, but I cannot in good conscience condone this.

Thanks, but given my distrust of governments/banks I cannot condone having all one's eggs in that basket.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#30  Postby Cito di Pense » Feb 16, 2019 3:36 pm

jamest wrote:
Thanks, but given my distrust of governments/banks I cannot condone having all one's eggs in that basket.


You don't have to trust governments & banks. Trouble is, everyone else is less trustworthy.

If you need investment advice, I know a milliner with a tinfoil line that is just the cat's meow.

jamest wrote:There are less than 20 million bitcoin in the whole world.


Nevertheless, the minimum price of a bitcoin is 0. The minimum price of the 1962 Topps Bobby Hull card is still pretty good.

https://www.psacard.com/cardfacts/hocke ... ll-33/1331

I had this card!!!! I sold it in 1995 for less than 500 bucks. But for more than 100 bucks.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#31  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 3:43 pm

Thommo wrote:What online course did you take and how did that lead you to think bitcoin was a good choice of investment?

Did this course give you the idea that the minor bubble in 2013 and the extreme bubble in 2017 "looking" similar meant anything, let alone that the bubble would repeat but magnified another order of magnitude?

They were just cheap Udemy courses (about £10 each) to give me a good grasp of everything involved. The courses themselves didn't advocate that I buy bitcoin in particular, I've made that decision from all of my reading and youtube research as a whole, notwithstanding my pessimism regards the centralised monetary system.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#32  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 3:48 pm

Cito di Pense wrote:
jamest wrote:
There are less than 20 million bitcoin in the whole world.


Nevertheless, the minimum price of a bitcoin is 0. The minimum price of the 1962 Topps Bobby Hull card is still pretty good.

With investments, you just never know which way...

Bitcoin is currently trading at about $3600. It can either go to zero or to the moon. Heads I lose several thousand; tails I'm going to the moon.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#33  Postby Thommo » Feb 16, 2019 3:49 pm

jamest wrote:Which means that my anticipations are quite conservative, I think.


I hope you aren't serious.

May the odds be ever in your favour.

PS:
jamest wrote:If 70 billion people ever decide to abandon their fiat ship, cryptocurrency will be the desert island that most of them swim towards.


70 billion?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#34  Postby Thommo » Feb 16, 2019 3:49 pm

jamest wrote:
Thommo wrote:What online course did you take and how did that lead you to think bitcoin was a good choice of investment?

Did this course give you the idea that the minor bubble in 2013 and the extreme bubble in 2017 "looking" similar meant anything, let alone that the bubble would repeat but magnified another order of magnitude?

They were just cheap Udemy courses (about £10 each) to give me a good grasp of everything involved. The courses themselves didn't advocate that I buy bitcoin in particular, I've made that decision from all of my reading and youtube research as a whole, notwithstanding my pessimism regards the centralised monetary system.


What course was it?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#35  Postby Cito di Pense » Feb 16, 2019 3:52 pm

jamest wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote:
jamest wrote:
There are less than 20 million bitcoin in the whole world.


Nevertheless, the minimum price of a bitcoin is 0. The minimum price of the 1962 Topps Bobby Hull card is still pretty good.

With investments, you just never know which way...


You mean, with speculations. Investments are speculations with information besides the price history attached.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#36  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 4:08 pm

Thommo wrote:
jamest wrote:Which means that my anticipations are quite conservative, I think.


I hope you aren't serious.

May the odds be ever in your favour.

PS:
jamest wrote:If 70 billion people ever decide to abandon their fiat ship, cryptocurrency will be the desert island that most of them swim towards.


70 billion?

Sorry, 7 billion. :oops:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#37  Postby Thommo » Feb 16, 2019 4:14 pm

jamest wrote:There are less than 20 million bitcoin in the whole world.


Incidentally, this is not true in the same way as saying there are only 512 Stradivarius violins in the world is true. To all intents and purposes the supply of bitcoins is not limited as they are data, and you can simply own (via various mechanisms) fractions of them.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#38  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 4:17 pm

Thommo wrote:
What course was it?

The first one was Complete Cryptocurrency Investment Course: Passive & Active, by Mohsen Hassan. I'd already done his course about Stock Trading so opted to do this also.

The second is a more comprehensive course but was still cheap: The Complete Cryptocurrency Course by Chris Haroun. I'd definitely recommend doing this course over the other, especially for newbies. Iirc it was about £12.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#39  Postby jamest » Feb 16, 2019 4:33 pm

I've just looked at that course on udemy to check the price. Apparently it's gone up to £199!!
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#40  Postby Thommo » Feb 16, 2019 4:34 pm

Buy now and you'll only pay £12!
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