The ramifications of blockchain technology?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#341  Postby Thommo » Oct 23, 2019 7:03 pm

I see Bitcoin is having another odd day. I really can't wrap my head fully around these sudden moves that look like distortions or manipulations.

I was amused last time it happened by the disparity between before/after accounts of the move.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/09/13/poll ... -breakout/
13th Sept wrote:Poll: Nearly 60% of Crypto Traders Expect Bitcoin Formation to Break Up

https://bitcoinist.com/crazy-premiums-a ... ice-crash/
25th Sept wrote:Today’s massive bitcoin price crash was largely expected by analysts. The bearish descending triangle formation was bound to break out to the downside so it has been no real surprise.


I wonder if similar retconning will take place this time.

I have to admit my confidence that Bitcoin is on a clear bull run through to 100k (give or take 50%) as forecast in this thread is at something of a low today as I see the price is about 900 quid lower than mentioned a while ago by Newolder.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#342  Postby Thommo » Oct 25, 2019 5:16 pm

Bitcoin's at it again, up $1,000 in a couple of hours.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#343  Postby jamest » Oct 25, 2019 11:39 pm

The bottom-line is that when I initially invested in it (February this year), my eye was on a medium-term investment with the hope of making substantial gains by the end of 2021 (4 year cycle). I didn't for the life of me (at that particular point) envisage that the price would almost 4x before the end of June but that's how it panned-out.
Of course, that short-term parabolic rise was unsustainable and I did advise people during the ride to do such things as buy Tether (sell) and then buy the dip. Regardless, even now, with bitcoin having suffered a savage beating since the end of June, anyone who had bought it when I advised them to do so would still be celebrating. I mean, I bought it back then for close to $3500 and now it's about $8,500.
As you stated, bitcoin has made a significant move upwards today, but who knows where that's going to lead in the short-term? Not me. I just want to repeat that I'm in it for the medium-term, to the end of 2021 at least. If you seriously want to take the piss, earmark January 2022 as your date. If you're right and your repeated requests to have me banned have not been successful, I will admit that I have been a dick. But until that date, you're getting no such thing.
Best wishes, squire.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#344  Postby Thommo » Oct 26, 2019 6:00 pm

jamest wrote:If you seriously want to take the piss, earmark January 2022 as your date. If you're right and your repeated requests to have me banned have not been successful, I will admit that I have been a dick.
Best wishes, squire.


Six months ago, you said eighteen months. Now, you're moving the goalposts and promising that you'll admit that you've "been a dick".

Things is, pretty much the very last conversation we had was about the consequences of you breaking an almost identical promise to admit error and apologise (with passing reference to how the previous thread you participated in before that also contained an additional similar broken promise).

If I do choose to compare the results of your forecast to that forecast, I won't be accepting what you're saying now. I'll just look at the forecast you made, of your own volition, in your own words, at the time. It will be far more accurate without allowing the input of bias that a shifting target creates.
jamest wrote:I'm anticipating a high of 50-150K after the next bull run, which I think will begin within the next year and peak around 18 months later.


This bull run has started. It started about six months ago and your due date has around a year to run.

I suspect the exaggeration of the peak price that Bitcoin reached in the intervening period, and the sudden extension of one to two years of leeway you've allowed yourself probably tells me all I really need to know about the degree of meticulous research that went into the forecast. Still, you could get lucky, I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.

Oh, and for what difference it makes I would like to be clear that I'm not here for your advice and would greatly prefer you not offer me unsolicited advice. Though obviously you can say what you like to anyone else without my preferences being relevant.
Last edited by Thommo on Oct 26, 2019 10:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#345  Postby Fallible » Oct 26, 2019 6:45 pm

jamest wrote:The bottom-line is
*mute*
Sorry that you think you had it rough in the first world.
You ought to get out a map sooner than later.
Knowledge has turned into a trap; you have to slow down.
Get out of your head and spend less time alone.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#346  Postby felltoearth » Oct 26, 2019 6:59 pm

jamest wrote:I will admit that I have been a dick.

Bookmarked.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#347  Postby jamest » Oct 27, 2019 12:59 am

Thommo wrote:
jamest wrote:If you seriously want to take the piss, earmark January 2022 as your date. If you're right and your repeated requests to have me banned have not been successful, I will admit that I have been a dick.
Best wishes, squire.


Six months ago, you said eighteen months. Now, you're moving the goalposts and promising that you'll admit that you've "been a dick".

I've just read what I said to you back on February 16th of this year, which was that:

I'm anticipating a high of 50-150K after the next bull run, which I think will begin within the next year and peak around 18 months later

http://www.rationalskepticism.org/gener ... l#p2681220

That takes us to the end of summer 2021. I should have added 4 months to that as I was quite definitely basing my initial investment on the obvious 4-year cycle that can be observed via a reference to the charts. If I am to apologise for anything at this juncture, it will be for getting my math wrong by 4 months.


Things is, pretty much the very last conversation we had was about the consequences of you breaking an almost identical promise to admit error and apologise (with passing reference to how the previous thread you participated in before that also contained an additional similar broken promise).

You're talking about an altogether different thread. My apology there was contingent upon KIR admitting that he had done what the lynch mob had accused him of, which afaik did not happen.

If I do choose to compare the results of your forecast to that forecast, I won't be accepting what you're saying now. I'll just look at the forecast you made, of your own volition, in your own words, at the time.

Which is at the second-half of August 2021. A year + 18 months = 2.5 years, squire. If you want to call me a dick/cunt then, then be my guest, but if you can forgive my mathematical inaccuracies and grant me 4 more months until then end of that year, I'd be grateful. :dopey:

It will be far more accurate without allowing the input of bias that a shifting target creates.

Shifting targets by 4 months is no big crime. :nono:


I suspect the exaggeration of the peak price that Bitcoin reached in the intervening period, and the sudden extension of one to two years of leeway you've allowed yourself probably tells me all I really need to know about the degree of meticulous research that went into the forecast. Still, you could get lucky, I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.

Stop telling porkies. Your ill will towards me has been repeatedly expressed here.

Oh, and for what difference it makes I would like to be clear that I'm not here for your advice and would greatly prefer you not offer me unsolicited advice. Though obviously you can say what you like to anyone else without my preferences being relevant.

I don't give a fuck what you're here for, but for the record I'm not here for Thommo. So, if you're not interested in anything I have to advise you about cryptocurrency then why not fuck off elsewhere? Could it be that you're praying that I fail so as to shaft me with your largest badger? To score, finally, some points against me? What a sorry man that would reveal. :nono:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#348  Postby felltoearth » Oct 27, 2019 2:50 am

Well if you can’t provide your own humility sometimes it should be imposed.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#349  Postby Thommo » Oct 27, 2019 2:52 am

jamest wrote:
Thommo wrote:
jamest wrote:If you seriously want to take the piss, earmark January 2022 as your date. If you're right and your repeated requests to have me banned have not been successful, I will admit that I have been a dick.
Best wishes, squire.


Six months ago, you said eighteen months. Now, you're moving the goalposts and promising that you'll admit that you've "been a dick".

I've just read what I said to you back on February 16th of this year, which was that:

I'm anticipating a high of 50-150K after the next bull run, which I think will begin within the next year and peak around 18 months later

http://www.rationalskepticism.org/gener ... l#p2681220

That takes us to the end of summer 2021.


This really doesn't seem worth bothering with. You've quoted back to me something quoted in the post you're replying to, which indicates you didn't read it. You've then said that eighteen months after an event that occurred six months ago (as you have yourself acknowledged in this thread) is two years away instead of one.

If you've changed your mind or decided you were wrong, just say so. It's not actually a big deal.

If what you mean is "...I think will begin within the next year and peak around 30 months from now", then that's what you should have said. You shouldn't just pretend what you said six months ago means something entirely different from what it says.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#350  Postby Thommo » Nov 22, 2019 7:51 pm

More erratic movement from Bitcoin again today.

I've noticed an increasing trend in studies along the lines of one reported earlier this year https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/majorit ... finds.html purporting the large price increases have been caused by market manipulations and noting that with something like a quarter of all bitcoins owned by just an estimated ten people the market is particularly susceptible to this sort of thing.

E.g.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambr ... 050e405c2b
https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitc ... 1572863400
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... study-says

I've been keeping an eye on the price out of a sort of morbid curiosity, and I really don't see anything that makes me change my view on Bitcoin's future all that much.

A couple of articles I read last month (but have now lost) and found interesting detailed a potential valuation as a function of the user base of bitcoin (i.e. people actually exchanging it for goods and services), one estimate suggested that if 15% of all economic transactions in the entire world came to be made in Bitcoin the price would reach a dizzying $500,000.

A more plausible estimate based on the technological and regulatory limitations (mentioned in more detail at some point by Newolder, I believe) suggested a long term price in the neighbourhood of $2,000, which I have to admit is probably higher than I would have thought, but seemed reasonably believable.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#351  Postby felltoearth » Nov 22, 2019 11:05 pm

Well there’s this...

The Secret Life and Strange Death of Quadriga Founder Gerald Cotten | Vanity Fair
When Canadian blockchain whiz Gerald Cotten died unexpectedly last year, hundreds of millions of dollars in investor funds vanished into the crypto ether. But when the banks, the law, and the forces of Reddit tried to track down the cash, it turned out the young mogul may not have been who he purported to be.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#352  Postby Thommo » Nov 22, 2019 11:48 pm

A fascinating read. The reference to a possible Hail Mary Martingale towards the end put me in mind of another discussion here from a while back.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#353  Postby jamest » Nov 23, 2019 12:38 am

Yes, it's not looking good at the moment and I do agree that market manipulators are at the helm. Indeed, it was probably those same people who pushed the price up towards the 14K mark in late June. I could cash out today and still (almost) double my money from February, so it's not a disaster yet. Certainly, you need to be of a strong disposition to ride this particular coaster.

I'm sticking with it whatever happens, certainly for the next two years as I've always had my eye on the medium term. Markets go up and down and eventually this one will start going back up. Unless zero.

Best wishes, gents.
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