The ramifications of blockchain technology?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#381  Postby Spearthrower » Feb 28, 2020 7:33 pm

The main thing that is currently giving cryptocurrencies their value is people speculating on how much they might be worth in the future, because they believe the hype or have convinced themselves that they can predict speculative markets, and other people conning them into Ponzi schemes and doing things that are normally illegal like manipulating markets to their own advantage.


This perfectly represents the few people I know who bet on cryptocurrencies: they all believe there's a certainty to their investment, and they all believe they've accurately predicted the future while having no actual relevant knowledge or training. But it's the nature of such schemes that some will make money, assuming they enter and leave at the right time - very similar in that respect to gambling in a casino: if you know to quit while you're ahead, then you're minimizing your exposure to the risky activity you're engaged in.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#382  Postby Cito di Pense » Mar 04, 2020 11:11 am

Spearthrower wrote:
The main thing that is currently giving cryptocurrencies their value is people speculating on how much they might be worth in the future, because they believe the hype or have convinced themselves that they can predict speculative markets, and other people conning them into Ponzi schemes and doing things that are normally illegal like manipulating markets to their own advantage.


This perfectly represents the few people I know who bet on cryptocurrencies: they all believe there's a certainty to their investment, and they all believe they've accurately predicted the future while having no actual relevant knowledge or training. But it's the nature of such schemes that some will make money, assuming they enter and leave at the right time - very similar in that respect to gambling in a casino: if you know to quit while you're ahead, then you're minimizing your exposure to the risky activity you're engaged in.


Never forget the interest of investors in influencing the investment behavior of others.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#383  Postby felltoearth » Mar 04, 2020 1:30 pm

Spearthrower wrote:
The main thing that is currently giving cryptocurrencies their value is people speculating on how much they might be worth in the future, because they believe the hype or have convinced themselves that they can predict speculative markets, and other people conning them into Ponzi schemes and doing things that are normally illegal like manipulating markets to their own advantage.


This perfectly represents the few people I know who bet on cryptocurrencies: they all believe there's a certainty to their investment, and they all believe they've accurately predicted the future while having no actual relevant knowledge or training. But it's the nature of such schemes that some will make money, assuming they enter and leave at the right time - very similar in that respect to gambling in a casino: if you know to quit while you're ahead, then you're minimizing your exposure to the risky activity you're engaged in.


It’s gonna go up and then after it’s gonna go down. I’m sure though it’ll go up again.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#384  Postby Cito di Pense » Mar 04, 2020 2:17 pm

felltoearth wrote:

It’s gonna go up and then after it’s gonna go down. I’m sure though it’ll go up again.


Elevators, man. The doors open. The doors close. You can't explain that. Or you can erect an explanation.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#385  Postby jamest » Mar 13, 2020 1:08 am

It would be remiss of me to not state that I no longer advise investing into crypto after today's cull. A fucking disaster, for sure, even if brought on by the virus and stockmarket crash.

It seems, just like the stockmarket, it's going to get much worse. My secondary advice, to buy precious metals, still holds however. They've been unaffected by recent news. Indeed, they've gone 'up'.

The irony is that if I'd left my money in my pension a year+ ago that it would now be worth 40+% less than it had been, whereas even in spite of the crypto debacle, bitcoin is for now still worth significantly more than what I paid for it, so I'm much better off than I would have been if I'd done nothing.

I have some thinking to do, obviously, but whatever I do I won't be investing back into the stockmarket. Hard times for all of us, so good luck to you all.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#386  Postby Spearthrower » Mar 13, 2020 1:39 am

Financially no different than I was a week ago, a month ago, a year ago.

"Investing" is necessarily gambling, and sometimes you'll lose.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#387  Postby jamest » Mar 13, 2020 1:48 am

Spearthrower wrote:Financially no different than I was a week ago, a month ago, a year ago.

"Investing" is necessarily gambling, and sometimes you'll lose.

Does this mean that you have no money at all? Because anyone with money invests it somewhere. Even when you hide your money under the mattress, you have it invested in the rate of inflation, which is generally detrimental to one's finances.

Of course, there are plenty of people who live week-by-week and have no savings, but if you have any form of savings (even in the bank), rest assured that they're currently at risk.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#388  Postby Spearthrower » Mar 13, 2020 2:21 am

jamest wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:Financially no different than I was a week ago, a month ago, a year ago.

"Investing" is necessarily gambling, and sometimes you'll lose.


Does this mean that you have no money at all?


No, of course it doesn't mean that.


jamest wrote:Because anyone with money invests it somewhere.


Untrue.


jamest wrote: Even when you hide your money under the mattress, you have it invested in the rate of inflation, which is generally detrimental to one's finances.


I don't have a choice in the matter; 0% interest for foreigners.


jamest wrote:Of course, there are plenty of people who live week-by-week and have no savings, but if you have any form of savings (even in the bank), rest assured that they're currently at risk.


They're not currently at any greater risk than they were last year or any year before that, and that risk is nearly zero. Comparative to the risk you're taking with your money, it's negligible.

The value of the money I had last week is the same as the value of the money I have this week. Now, something may go awry with the economy and the value of currency might change making the money I have possess less value, but I haven't just lost a chunk of value overnight because the dice landed wrong.

This is fundamentally what you've been doing: gambling. When you gamble, you can win big - that's presumably why you did it. But you can also lose. If there was no risk of losing, then there'd be no opportunity to gain - that's the hook for greed. Now you might argue that you can work out the risk, predict the market, make sound investments... and I won't dispute that's true, but I will dispute that anyone can know the future - all models are based on predictable quotients, not ones that cannot be predicted, and it's those that can find you in a dark alley, beat you up and take your handbag.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#389  Postby jamest » Mar 13, 2020 2:44 am

I don't think that you understand the detrimental effect inflation has upon your money, nor the risk of your bank going bankrupt and your savings disappearing completely.

The value of $1 is not universally constant, as of course prices tend to rise every year. I'm sure you'll agree that $1 back in 1920 had more buying power than here in 2020?

Likewise, I shouldn't have to explain the risk of leaving your savings in your bank, given what happened in about 2008 when many big banks would have collapsed if it were not for government intervention. That same risk presents itself to us again in 2020, though this time alongside the pandemic.

It's a very bad time for all, but to say that you have money and that the value of said money has been unaffected all year, is very naive.

Did I 'gamble' when I got my money out of my pension and invested it into crypto and the precious metals? Not really, because I knew what a fowl state the global economy was in and how it was destined to play out over the near future. However, I hadn't planned for a global pandemic into that scenario which would instantly spook everyone.

What's for sure is that wherever I've invested my money, wherever you've invested yours is equally as much of a gamble.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#390  Postby Spearthrower » Mar 13, 2020 3:36 am

jamest wrote:I don't think that you understand the detrimental effect inflation has upon your money, nor the risk of your bank going bankrupt and your savings disappearing completely.


Your thoughts in that regard are based on nothing but your emotion. I know exactly what inflation is and how it affects money supply and value.

In terms of risk of going bankrupt and losing my savings, the risk is essentially zero. The only way it could happen is if I was unable to work.


jamest wrote:IThe value of $1 is not universally constant, as of course prices tend to rise every year. I'm sure you'll agree that $1 back in 1920 had more buying power than here in 2020?


With respect Jamest, I don't need a course in elementary economics from you.


jamest wrote:ILikewise, I shouldn't have to explain the risk of leaving your savings in your bank, given what happened in about 2008 when many big banks would have collapsed if it were not for government intervention. That same risk presents itself to us again in 2020, though this time alongside the pandemic.


That's exactly the point of putting your savings in a big bank - the government has vested interest in ensuring they don't collapse. That's one of the most vital differences I've seen you miss numerous times. If bitcoin crashes, no one's going to do a damn thing to protect you and your money.


jamest wrote:IIt's a very bad time for all, but to say that you have money and that the value of said money has been unaffected all year, is very naive.


You say 'naive' in the total absence of any knowledge. You don't have the faintest idea about my finances, so how are your assertions relevant to anything? As I've just told you, my money has been entirely unaffected.


jamest wrote:IDid I 'gamble' when I got my money out of my pension and invested it into crypto and the precious metals?


Oh yes, absolutely without question. In essence, you gambled twice; once for removing your money from somewhere safe, and once for investing it in something volatile. Precious metals are generally ok - they're no different in returns than a bank by and large, and have about the same security as there's never going to be no demand for them... well, for the foreseeable future, anyway. But cryptocurrency has exposed you to dramatic risk, way beyond anything remotely equivalent to a bank or pension scheme.


jamest wrote:I Not really, because I knew what a fowl state the global economy was in and how it was destined to play out over the near future. However, I hadn't planned for a global pandemic into that scenario which would instantly spook everyone.


You can't plan for these things, and that's exactly the point. Next time you think you can predict the future, reflect on this. The fact is that it's not the predictable which can cause unexpected problems, it's the unpredictable, and because it's unpredictable, the effect of it is invariably going to be dramatic.


jamest wrote:IWhat's for sure is that wherever I've invested my money, wherever you've invested yours is equally as much of a gamble.


Factually untrue, and for someone who's investing in cryptocurrency, this is surprisingly lacking in understanding of the entire point of investments risk profile versus reward. My money gives me no reward, but it is nearly perfectly safe. Your money is now tied up on the back of a bucking bronco - you may come out well, or you may lose all of it. That's why what you're doing is gambling.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#391  Postby felltoearth » Mar 13, 2020 3:51 am

VPN and virtual desktop developors are a good buy right now I think.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#392  Postby jamest » Mar 13, 2020 5:25 am

Spearthrower wrote:
jamest wrote:I don't think that you understand the detrimental effect inflation has upon your money, nor the risk of your bank going bankrupt and your savings disappearing completely.


Your thoughts in that regard are based on nothing but your emotion. I know exactly what inflation is and how it affects money supply and value.

Then you should know that if you haven't done anything with your money, then it's probably lost about 2% of its value in the last year. That's a rough guess, but inflation is roughly along those lines in stable economies.

In terms of risk of going bankrupt and losing my savings, the risk is essentially zero. The only way it could happen is if I was unable to work.

This is about past earnings, what you've saved and where you've stored/invested it. From under the mattress, the bank, a pension, crypto, wherever. Ultimately, my argument is that surplus/saved money made in the past is at risk of being worthless any time in the future, because you cannot control the value of it anywhere that you leave it.

jamest wrote:IThe value of $1 is not universally constant, as of course prices tend to rise every year. I'm sure you'll agree that $1 back in 1920 had more buying power than here in 2020?


With respect Jamest, I don't need a course in elementary economics from you.

With respect Sir, you shouldn't be talking bollocks then, for I can assure you that whatever your savings are and wherever you've left them, their intrinsic value has been affected and will continue to be affected by global events.


jamest wrote:ILikewise, I shouldn't have to explain the risk of leaving your savings in your bank, given what happened in about 2008 when many big banks would have collapsed if it were not for government intervention. That same risk presents itself to us again in 2020, though this time alongside the pandemic.


That's exactly the point of putting your savings in a big bank - the government has vested interest in ensuring they don't collapse. That's one of the most vital differences I've seen you miss numerous times. If bitcoin crashes, no one's going to do a damn thing to protect you and your money.

You seem to be under the impression that our governments have an unlimited supply of money and can cover any problem, any time. That is not the case. Governments have to print new money and go deeper into debt every time there's a serious crisis like this. The reason they do it is because of desperation, of course, because every time they do such a thing earmarks the end of themselves. I shit you not. Otherwise, they'd do it all of the time and there'd be no concerns about the consequences. That's precisely why, prior to this crisis year, the UK government's fiscal model for the past several years has been one of austerity. There are major negative consequences for printing new money (QE) and you need to research that to discover the flaws in Keynesian attitudes to understand why the model is fucked.

jamest wrote:IIt's a very bad time for all, but to say that you have money and that the value of said money has been unaffected all year, is very naive.


You say 'naive' in the total absence of any knowledge. You don't have the faintest idea about my finances, so how are your assertions relevant to anything? As I've just told you, my money has been entirely unaffected.

You told me that your finances have been unaffetced over the last year, which means that you're naive. Emphasis fullstop.


jamest wrote:IDid I 'gamble' when I got my money out of my pension and invested it into crypto and the precious metals?


Oh yes, absolutely without question. In essence, you gambled twice; once for removing your money from somewhere safe

Safe? If I'd left my pension fund where it was, it would now be 40+% lighter. Don't you realise that all pensions are investments in the stockmarket made by people who make charges for their services regardless of whether they make a profit or loss?


, and once for investing it in something volatile. Precious metals are generally ok - they're no different in returns than a bank by and large, and have about the same security as there's never going to be no demand for them... well, for the foreseeable future, anyway. But cryptocurrency has exposed you to dramatic risk, way beyond anything remotely equivalent to a bank or pension scheme.

I'm fully aware of the fact that crypto is tanking, but so is the global economy. And even though crypto has tanked more than the stockmarket, I purchased it at a price still lower than that of the cull today. In real terms, I'm still much better off than I would have been if I'd left my money in my pension. Much better off! Please also keep in mind that I advocated buying into the precious metals. MORE THAN A THIRD of my money went into those, and they are doing well, even now.

You're a fool if you think that you've not 'invested' your savings anywhere, for anytime soon hyperinflation or bank collapses might ensue from this crisis. Then, your money won't be worth a shit. Your biggest failure, however, is in not seeing how much of a gamble you were taking when you entrusted a specific bank, or mattress, to ensure the value of your savings. Rest assured, there are no safe havens, anywhere.

jamest wrote:I Not really, because I knew what a fowl state the global economy was in and how it was destined to play out over the near future. However, I hadn't planned for a global pandemic into that scenario which would instantly spook everyone.


You can't plan for these things, and that's exactly the point. Next time you think you can predict the future, reflect on this. The fact is that it's not the predictable which can cause unexpected problems, it's the unpredictable, and because it's unpredictable, the effect of it is invariably going to be dramatic.

True, but rest assured that the global economy is in as much danger from this as is the crypto markets.


jamest wrote:IWhat's for sure is that wherever I've invested my money, wherever you've invested yours is equally as much of a gamble.


Factually untrue, and for someone who's investing in cryptocurrency, this is surprisingly lacking in understanding of the entire point of investments risk profile versus reward. My money gives me no reward, but it is nearly perfectly safe. Your money is now tied up on the back of a bucking bronco - you may come out well, or you may lose all of it. That's why what you're doing is gambling.

Is your money in government bonds by any chance, and have you heard of negative yield?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#393  Postby Hermit » Mar 13, 2020 5:57 am

jamest wrote:The irony is that if I'd left my money in my pension a year+ ago that it would now be worth 40+% less than it had been...

You don't lose - or win - anything until you sell. During the 2008/9 crisis the Dow dropped 50%. Much gnashing of teeth ensued, but the only people who actually got hurt were the ones who had to sell. For everyone else it was business as usual less than four years after the nadir was reached.

No investment is entirely risk-free, but houses are safer investments than most others, and while returns on investment is rarely spectacular they tend to be quite good. You need to take some precautions, though. For instance, it's not enough to ensure you can meet repayment obligations at the time you sign the mortgage contract. You need to leave a safety margin too, in case a credit squeeze or some other economic factor drives interest rates up. If you borrow 100k at 5% over 20 years, monthly repayments of $660 are a doddle. The same amount at 15% will cost $1320/month. This may present a problem.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#394  Postby gobshite » Mar 13, 2020 6:29 am

The "halvening" is fairly imminent. On phone, can't explain. Also as I mentioned in another thread alternative currencies become more popular during economic catastrophes. Depending on how hard the virus smashes us both these points might lead to an increase in bitcoin in the near future. Buy more James! :biggrin:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#395  Postby Hermit » Mar 13, 2020 6:50 am

Yeah, JamesT. With your financial expertise I don't need to remind you of the old "buy low, sell high" adage every successful speculator wins with, do I? Buy now! Bitcoin is low right now. It can't go much lower. Well, maybe $5000 lower, but look at the upside! You could see it at 20,000 in a year or two. Quadruple that, even! Go for it!

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#396  Postby Spearthrower » Mar 13, 2020 7:05 am

jamest wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:
jamest wrote:I don't think that you understand the detrimental effect inflation has upon your money, nor the risk of your bank going bankrupt and your savings disappearing completely.


Your thoughts in that regard are based on nothing but your emotion. I know exactly what inflation is and how it affects money supply and value.


Then you should know that if you haven't done anything with your money, then it's probably lost about 2% of its value in the last year. That's a rough guess, but inflation is roughly along those lines in stable economies.


Citation, please?



jamest wrote:
This is about past earnings, what you've saved and where you've stored/invested it. From under the mattress, the bank, a pension, crypto, wherever. Ultimately, my argument is that surplus/saved money made in the past is at risk of being worthless any time in the future, because you cannot control the value of it anywhere that you leave it.


Yet there's a wealth of difference between leaving it in the piggy bank and spinning a roulette wheel.


jamest wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:

With respect Jamest, I don't need a course in elementary economics from you.


With respect Sir, you shouldn't be talking bollocks then, for I can assure you that whatever your savings are and wherever you've left them, their intrinsic value has been affected and will continue to be affected by global events.


Well, the material fact is that I haven't been talking bollocks - you've made a number of entirely unwarranted assumptions and filled in with your uncritically swallowed ideology.


jamest wrote:
You seem to be under the impression that our governments have an unlimited supply of money and can cover any problem, any time. That is not the case.


Really. I seem to be under that impression, do I?

Then you'll have no trouble citing where I said anything at all that might justifying how you came by that impression, right?


jamest wrote: Governments have to print new money and go deeper into debt every time there's a serious crisis like this. The reason they do it is because of desperation, of course, because every time they do such a thing earmarks the end of themselves. I shit you not. Otherwise, they'd do it all of the time and there'd be no concerns about the consequences. That's precisely why, prior to this crisis year, the UK government's fiscal model for the past several years has been one of austerity. There are major negative consequences for printing new money (QE) and you need to research that to discover the flaws in Keynesian attitudes to understand why the model is fucked.


All irrelevant to the point I made.


jamest wrote:You told me that your finances have been unaffetced over the last year, which means that you're naive. Emphasis fullstop.


Actually, I told you that you don't have the first fucking clue about my finances, so all of your assertions are based on assumptions you have no idea are true or not, ergo you're talking over-confident, under-educated shite as usual.


jamest wrote:Safe? If I'd left my pension fund where it was, it would now be 40+% lighter. Don't you realise that all pensions are investments in the stockmarket made by people who make charges for their services regardless of whether they make a profit or loss?


Talk to me again in 2 months. That's the problem. You have no fucking idea what the value of your money is going to be even in the next 10 minutes. That's because you're gambling.


jamest wrote:
I'm fully aware of the fact that crypto is tanking, but so is the global economy. And even though crypto has tanked more than the stockmarket, I purchased it at a price still lower than that of the cull today.


And next week? And the week after?

Why do you believe you're in any position at all to lecture other people on sound financial decision making when you're at the whim of events to a far greater degree than I am?

This is your usual bluster jamest. While I absolutely don't want to see you go broke from your decisions, it will be rather ironic if you're crying in your foodbank handouts next month and I still own exactly as much as I did before.


jamest wrote: In real terms, I'm still much better off than I would have been if I'd left my money in my pension.Much better off!


And tomorrow? Next week? Next month?


jamest wrote: Please also keep in mind that I advocated buying into the precious metals. MORE THAN A THIRD of my money went into those, and they are doing well, even now.


Like I said: they're reasonably safe, but their returns are minimal. This seems to be one of the most fundamental points you're missing. Risk V Reward. Anything safe offers little potential gains. Anything offering high potential gains is inherently risky. You've taken a dramatic risk with your life savings, but please don't believe you can either evangelize at me or lecture me just because you've taken that risk.


jamest wrote: You're a fool if you think that you've not 'invested' your savings anywhere,...


It's a fact, so you'd be a mentally deranged inbred fuckwit who's risked his family's well-being to believe otherwise.

That's how poisoning the well works, right? Just making sure from your only actual area of expertise.


jamest wrote: ... for anytime soon hyperinflation or bank collapses might ensue from this crisis.


Probably best if you save the charges on your crystal ball to worry about what's going to happen to your money in the massively riskier scenario you've gambled on.


jamest wrote: Then, your money won't be worth a shit. Your biggest failure, however, is in not seeing how much of a gamble you were taking when you entrusted a specific bank, or mattress, to ensure the value of your savings. Rest assured, there are no safe havens, anywhere.


Sorry, but every time you say this, it's clear you are drooling ideology at me rather than engaging in anything rational.


jamest wrote:
True, but rest assured that the global economy is in as much danger from this as is the crypto markets.


That's bullshit, and anyone with a clue knows it.


jamest wrote:
Is your money in government bonds by any chance, and have you heard of negative yield?


Yes, I've heard of negative yield, no it's not in government bonds.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#397  Postby Spearthrower » Mar 13, 2020 7:10 am

Hermit wrote:
Bitcoin_2020_03_13.jpg



Right Jamest.

Just how much value has your money lost in the last month?

I take it you know, right?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#398  Postby OlivierK » Mar 13, 2020 7:34 am

Hermit wrote:Yeah, JamesT. With your financial expertise I don't need to remind you of the old "buy low, sell high" adage every successful speculator wins with, do I? Buy now! Bitcoin is low right now. It can't go much lower. Well, maybe $5000 lower, but look at the upside! You could see it at 20,000 in a year or two. Quadruple that, even! Go for it!

The people I used to work with (investment bankers / professional gamblers / toMAYto / toMAHto) would agree with you. If the fall is such that someone who thought X was a good buy at 8000 now thinks it's not a good buy at 5000, then that's the time to buy (assuming the opinion is widespread). The timid who didn't want to get in at 5000 can buy back in at 7000, when they're reassured that the low has passed (at which point our professional mates will be out at 7000 having made a quick 40%).

That's the theory, anyway. Like all gambling theories it works until it doesn't.
Last edited by OlivierK on Mar 13, 2020 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#399  Postby Sgt Kelly » Mar 13, 2020 8:04 am

I was invited by my sales drone at the bank to have a chat about investments yesterday, when the local stock exchange dropped 14%. :dance:
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#400  Postby Thommo » Mar 13, 2020 12:18 pm

It's something of a truism that markets tend to overshoot in both directions, especially during a panic, which this pretty evidently is. If Bitcoin was worth buying at a higher price, or had an underlying value that was higher, then the answer is simple, wait for the bottom of the market, buy and enjoy that wonderful bounce.

If it's really worth more. And if you can identify the bottom of the market. :teef:
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