The ramifications of blockchain technology?

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#141  Postby OlivierK » Apr 03, 2019 2:49 am

My later employment was in software design.

We're not quite in agreement about technical analysis. To me, it's on a par with astrology, but useful to understand given how many traders employ astrologers. It doesn't predict trends and cycles as much as it predicts which way the sheep will run. In markets where the running of the sheep is a primary mover, there can seem little difference in those two things, but it's an important distinction.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#142  Postby Svartalf » Apr 03, 2019 8:55 am

Macdoc wrote:You are confusing fraudulent or predatory activity with a medium of exchange based on block change technology. There is nothing inherently illegal at all ....

Ever read https://www.amazon.com/Born-Steal-When- ... nskepti-20

State lotteries "con" poor people every day.

Well, I don't know about frudulent, but I suspect that people already "rich" in cryptocurrency making publicity to it so as to attract new investors, who would then give more grounding to said currency qualifies as predatory activity.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#143  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 03, 2019 9:16 am

It needs new idiots to feed the system where else does the stuff come from.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#144  Postby Svartalf » Apr 03, 2019 9:20 am

So long as there are traders willing to exchange cryptostuff for real goods and services, I'll refrain from stating they are fraudulent.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#145  Postby jamest » May 12, 2019 1:18 am

If nothing else, you should learn about and invest in cryptocurrency just for the ride. Man, what an emotional rollorcoaster this is!

Anyway, I stated in my last entries here that once bitcoin gets through the significant resistance of 6K+ (US dollars) that the bear market would be officially over. I stand by that claim now that it's rapidly climbed to about 7K though a sharp correction/plunge has been on the cards for several days. So, for the record, if anyone is watching this thread and has missed the boat at the levels I purchased them at (less than 4K, for about a 90% profit in less than 3 months) then my advice at this juncture is don't be hasty to buy just yet. We're in fomo mode (fear of missing out) and the RSI (a technical analysis indicator) is indicating oversold. Indeed, several such indicators are indicative of bearish divergence.

If you are semi-interested at this particular juncture, my advice would be to just watch the market for several days. See if it stabilises at 7K. If it does, chance your arm before the rocket departs. Otherwise, if you're more cautious, wait for it to continue rising, or else hope to buy the dip. I'm not sure how big that dip might be, but for sure the significant 6K+ resistance level is now steadfast support.

For the record, bitcoin is by far the best performing asset regards ROI in 2019:
https://www.ccn.com/surging-bitcoin-201 ... t-globally
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#146  Postby tuco » May 12, 2019 2:55 am

Svartalf wrote:So long as there are traders willing to exchange cryptostuff for real goods and services, I'll refrain from stating they are fraudulent.


I would be interested in numbers showing the use of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for purchases of goods and services vs purchases for speculation and investment.

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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#147  Postby Svartalf » May 12, 2019 9:30 am

Point to you. If the use for real goods and services is not an important part of the bitcoin economy, then it might indeed be mostly fraudulent.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#148  Postby tuco » May 12, 2019 9:57 am

Not sure about fraudulent but we could perhaps agree on deviating from the spirit of the concept summarized in the motto about revolution.

A while ago I was listening to someone who claimed to use bitcoin from the very beginning in the mentioned spirit and he was saying how displeased he was when it became a target for let's say investors, though he admitted it was inevitable with increasing popularity. I can understand such a view as I don't see much value being created when buying low and selling high. I see why people do it but if values could be created by generating virtual chains we would not need to do anything else, right?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#149  Postby Svartalf » May 12, 2019 10:02 am

well, that buying and selling of virtual stuff for real money feels unpleasantly like modern stock trading,... it is basically freudulent and abusive, unfair to those who use the service according to its original spirit.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#150  Postby tuco » May 12, 2019 10:05 am

Yes, I hold the same opinion on stock trading and, well, any trading based on buying low and selling high: nothing is being created but money.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#151  Postby Svartalf » May 12, 2019 10:17 am

and, unless you trade straight with the state, money is not even created, it has to come from somewhere.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#152  Postby tuco » May 12, 2019 10:22 am

Yes and no. It's not necessarily a zero-sum game.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#153  Postby Svartalf » May 12, 2019 10:31 am

in a properly regulated state of finances, it should be... there's only one maker of money, and others should not be able to make their own, especially ot buy high (and hopefully resell even higher as I doubt it's to actually invest in the company for the long term) ...
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#154  Postby Cito di Pense » May 12, 2019 10:56 am

tuco wrote:Yes and no. It's not necessarily a zero-sum game.


Well, then should you not instead have linked to an article about games that are not zero-sum?

I know of at least one game wherein, if one does not get too filosopeevish, one particular quantity is always increasing globally.

tuco wrote:Yes, I hold the same opinion on stock trading and, well, any trading based on buying low and selling high: nothing is being created but money.


The prices are not entirely arbitrary, and in the long term regress to something very like the value of the underlying.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#155  Postby tuco » May 12, 2019 3:09 pm

Well, I could link both since I said yes and no. As usual, I assume a certain level of intelligence and a kind of will from the other party so they can look it up themselves, to verify or expand.

Regress to something very like the value of the underlying? We were talking about what is being created not about underlying value. No underlying value is being created when buying low and selling high, that is obvious, right?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#156  Postby Cito di Pense » May 12, 2019 5:06 pm

tuco wrote:Well, I could link both since I said yes and no.


You sure covered all the bases, there, didn't you? If there's anything under 'yes', 'no', or maybe even 'maybe', it should be researchable. Yeppers. You sure showed you know what's what and that you expect your audience to come all the way up to those standards.

tuco wrote:We were talking about what is being created not about underlying value.


Well, in your scheme of things, yes, no, or maybe we were talking about what is being created. I think you suggested it was not, or maybe it was, or maybe it was maybe, a zero-sum game. Yes, no, or maybe, for the win. Let me refresh your failing memory:

tuco wrote:Yes and no. It's not necessarily a zero-sum game.


If you stick to this

tuco wrote:Yes, I hold the same opinion on stock trading and, well, any trading based on buying low and selling high: nothing is being created but money.


you'll at least be saying somethng specific enough to try to defend.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#157  Postby tuco » May 12, 2019 5:12 pm

Yes, I tend to do that, cover all bases. It comes with thinking before posting. And again, that is why its a mystery to me why you quote me if you have nothing to add or correct. I do not enjoy these exchanges so I guess I put you on the list?
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#158  Postby Thommo » May 12, 2019 5:34 pm

Svartalf wrote:in a properly regulated state of finances, it should be... there's only one maker of money, and others should not be able to make their own, especially ot buy high (and hopefully resell even higher as I doubt it's to actually invest in the company for the long term) ...


I don't think this is right. If a business starts up and invests in R&D that develops a new technology (for example any of the advances in farm machinery, pesticides, crop strains or fertiliser that took place in the 20th century), then wealth has been created, a new way of doing things has been created, the world has changed. But in order to do this you need money up front, capital.

The people who buy the shares are the ones with capital invested in the company, they get a share of the profits in exchange for that ownership, and additionally they assume the risk of the company becoming worth less than it currently is, or the beneficial prospects of the company becoming worth more than it currently is (because its sales rise, because its portfolio of brands and IPs becomes more valuable etc.).

Since there is not only one such company and each is the combined effort of dozens or thousands of individuals it cannot be that there's only one maker of money (in any relevant sense). There are conjectures about alternative ways of raising capital, that a system could, in theory function, entirely through central planning (or no planning at all) and that banning the investing of private capital could work. Nobody has ever made it work though, indeed attempts that have been made have only resulted in worse economic outcomes thusfar.

And then there's the whole concept of retail. If I buy an apple from the supermarket, they've done a service for me, because I can buy my cereal, milk, bread and everything else I want at the same time. It's a huge time, effort and cost saver that I could not get if I went straight to the orchard. They too have created value for me that outweighs the additional cost they might charge compared to buying wholesale.

Much like gambling, speculation can be avoided by the ordinary person. Almost to exclusion the only winners and losers in speculation are those who speculate. On average investors (which overlaps with the category of speculators) in the stock market have tended to make significant gains over the last century or so though, unlike gamblers.*

Please note, none of this excuses the lack of proper regulation that has also frequently accompanied 20th century capitalism, which from time to time has shown its "unacceptable face". Whether that be price gouging, raiding, monopolising or anything else (simple examples might include Fixed Odds Betting Terminals that pray on the addicted, or predatory acquisition of pharmaceutical patents that allow for extreme price gouging in the regions of price hikes of 2000%).

*All that said, if my pension or any of my share holdings were invested in utilities in the UK right now, I'd be getting out PDQ.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#159  Postby Macdoc » May 12, 2019 6:09 pm

Almost to exclusion the only winners and losers in speculation are those who speculate


some conflation of wealth, money and predation but reasonable post

Predation can occur in any unregulated exchange of value ...ie landlord tenant, monopoly or collusion ( insulin in the US just now )

Wealth is independent of money.....far too much economic activity is concentrated on speculation ( 99% or so of daily monetary trades ) as opposed to wealth building. Employing labour, materials and capital to build new housing is wealth building.
Buying a bunch and flipping them without improvement is predation/speculation.
Buying a run down house and fixing it up to make a profit is wealth building.

Just ask any tenant in a major city how speculation has hurt them. Governments can only rein in speculation by taxing the shite out of short term gains and/or providing a socially beneficial alternative for shelter ( ie cost effective housing based on income ) which gives people an alternative.
In some cases outright regulation is needed to prevent abuses like AirBnB sucking out affordable rental units.
The latter is tricky for govs to handle as there are social consequences for neighbors and other owners in the same building.
Taxation and stiff regulation ( insurance requirements ) might squeeze some of the abuse out.

Bitcoin is entirely speculative . no wealth building at all...in some cases it is wealth destroying if fossil fuel is used for mining the coins.
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Re: The ramifications of blockchain technology?

#160  Postby Thommo » May 12, 2019 6:19 pm

Sure, no problem.

Just to be 100% clear I'm not against regulation, I certainly wasn't arguing against it. And whilst there are areas where some regulation needs removed or reworked, my own view is that there are far more areas where more regulation is needed. There are also areas where either approach could in theory work and I don't much care which, as long as reform is implemented (e.g. closing tax loopholes).

I would say that wealth is not independent of money, whilst being separate they are undoubtedly intertwined. Money has value, it can be used as a store of wealth, or a medium of exchange to allow investment. Bitcoin is being used almost exclusively as the first, despite having been envisaged as the second. This is one of the reasons that whilst I'm very happy for James that (were he to sell) his gambling would be paying off, I personally have little confidence in Bitcoin.
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