The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#241  Postby newolder » Jun 14, 2019 10:32 am

You are welcome, tuco, and I'll keep on reading this topic for the undoubted "useful to the issue at hand" posts of the not-too-distant future. Should we all join hands around the campfire as we chant & sing songs about extinction-level events? It would make as much difference to human populations in the year 2200, I guess.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#242  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2019 10:41 am

What extinction-level event?

I told you, if you want to make me happy, edit the wiki page on Projections of population growth with your infinite model theory of dynamic chaos but you don't care for that. You care about joining hands around campfire and singing songs.

---

newolder wrote:
tuco wrote:...

No population prediction model I am aware of predicts 2B.

Make me happy.

You are unaware of the connection between the Mandelbrot set and fractal population dynamics? :ask:
https://fractalfoundation.org/OFC/OFC-6-1.html
...
Given the right conditions, the population of a single species can fluctuate chaotically, as we will see in the next section.


Conveniently snipped from:

tuco wrote:
Thommo wrote:
tuco wrote:
Thommo wrote:

I didn't see any that weren't appropriately qualified. So no.

I wouldn't take them too seriously if they were expressed with undue certainty. And I might get sad if people were unduly sure.


I don't know what "appropriately qualified" means but alright.


It just means that situationally appropriate words that limit or constrain the extent or circumstances of a claim have been used.

tuco wrote:I guess you missed the part with the claim that the current level of consumption would be sustainable if the population were 2B people, leaving alone where the 2B came from.


Quite possibly I did, although that doesn't actually sound like a prediction of population in 2200 to me anyway. I'm sure there's lots to discuss in such a claim, but it doesn't sound inherently unreasonable to me. Certainly if you had a world population stratified in the same way the current world population is, but stable at around the 2B mark a lot of sustainability issues like land use, deforestation, water use, mineral depletion or fish stock depletion would take on radically different dimensions, and other resources would be deteriorating at a proportionately lower rate which would allow for a much more gradual course correction.

There'd need to be more in depth discussion to form a sensible view one way or the other, I'm sure. Any criticism I would have to offer would be markedly different than that I would offer to the repetition of Oxfam's claim, which was rather uncritically based on the assumption that environmental impact operates on a 1 for 1 basis with income, combined with what rather disappointingly amounted to a small amount of disguised numerology.


Predictions to 2200 are so unreliable that nobody even does them. Well, nobody who has any idea about predictions.

About 2/7 radically different dimension. What kind of gradual course of correction are you talking about? The claim was that it would be sustainable.

On what bases do you determine what is reasonable and whatnot? How about 2 million, is that reasonable or not?

No population prediction model I am aware of predicts 2B.

Make me happy.


So are you aware of a population prediction model that predicts 2B? If you are, present it. Can you do better than this?

https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/ ... 0final.pdf

Given the inherent impossibility of such an exercise, these projections have a special character.
They are not forecasts. They do not say that population is expected to reach the projected levels.
Rather, they are extrapolations of current trends.


I will answer for you: No I cannot, I just wanted to show I know math. I told you, I know you know math and it does not impress me.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#243  Postby newolder » Jun 14, 2019 11:06 am

What extinction-level event?

That which the "Extinction Rebellion" or XR camp is campaigning about, I guess.

"a population prediction model that predicts" <any number> has been posted. It's the output of a model of dynamical chaos mapped to "population". It does not say that the population is expected to reach any one of the predicted numbers since that would be beyond the scope of the model. Rather, it confirms that prediction is hard, especially about the future.
Last edited by newolder on Jun 14, 2019 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#244  Postby newolder » Jun 14, 2019 11:15 am

. Double post.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#245  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 14, 2019 11:39 am

It really is as if tuco thinks we're all here just to provide satisfaction for him.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#246  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2019 12:06 pm

newolder wrote:
What extinction-level event?

That which the "Extinction Rebellion" or XR camp is campaigning about, I guess.

"a population prediction model that predicts" <any number> has been posted. It's the output of a model of dynamical chaos mapped to "population". It does not say that the population is expected to reach any one of the predicted numbers since that would be beyond the scope of the model. Rather, it confirms that prediction is hard, especially about the future.


Are you even aware of what the topic is? Or better yet, do you even care about the topic? Does not seem to me like you do and all you do here is showing off.

The topic is The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey in the context of Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’ and for this topic only realistic near-future scenarios are relevant. What does model of dynamical chaos mapped to "population" has to do with the topic? How is it useful? How does it help us with the issues at hand?
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#247  Postby newolder » Jun 14, 2019 12:13 pm

Why are you going around in ever decreasing circles, tuco?
No population prediction model I am aware of predicts 2B.

Make me happy.

It appears that posting about such a model did not make you happy or even happier. Heigh ho.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#248  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2019 12:14 pm

newolder wrote:Why are you going around in ever decreasing circles, tuco?
No population prediction model I am aware of predicts 2B.

Make me happy.

It appears that posting about such a model did not make you happy or even happier. Heigh ho.


There is no model that predicts such a thing.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#249  Postby newolder » Jun 14, 2019 1:09 pm

Yet you posted your own results from work on the model that helped show how it was capable to predict any number. :scratch:
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#250  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2019 1:17 pm

Ok, well, you leave me no option. Congrats.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#251  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 14, 2019 2:18 pm

tuco wrote:Ok, well, you leave me no option. Congrats.


Two-bit trolling.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#252  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2019 3:48 pm

newolder who like stuff like this:

Pn+1 = Pn + CPn(1-Pn/K)


and

Recall from the lesson on Mandelbrot Universality, that when you iterate an equation that has a squaring function in it (or even approximates one), in the complex plane, you will find Mandelbrot Sets. Since this equation contains the term Pn2, it should not be surprising that we can easily find Mandelbrot Sets in the fractal below. Zoom into and explore this closely related fractal known as the Lambda fractal.


fails to recognize the difference between modeling tool (equation) and (actual) model. I was patient longer than Lambda fractal at Mandelbrot Set.

Needless to say that modeling tool that allegedly predicts an infinite number of models, is lol tool. I mean, if it can produce any number one desires why bother with modeling at all?
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#253  Postby newolder » Jun 14, 2019 4:23 pm

tuco can let me know when he has performed many independent tests on the population count of humans over the next 180 years to gauge the efficacy or usefulness of any (actual) model or model (tool) he likes. Currently, there is 1 sample (of "human population count") to test against and without increasing this sample set, any statistical inference remains moot. I cannot promise, however, to be available to see the results of the tests.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#254  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 14, 2019 5:18 pm

tuco wrote:newolder who like stuff like this:

Pn+1 = Pn + CPn(1-Pn/K)


and

Recall from the lesson on Mandelbrot Universality, that when you iterate an equation that has a squaring function in it (or even approximates one), in the complex plane, you will find Mandelbrot Sets. Since this equation contains the term Pn2, it should not be surprising that we can easily find Mandelbrot Sets in the fractal below. Zoom into and explore this closely related fractal known as the Lambda fractal.


fails to recognize the difference between modeling tool (equation) and (actual) model. I was patient longer than Lambda fractal at Mandelbrot Set.

Needless to say that modeling tool that allegedly predicts an infinite number of models, is lol tool. I mean, if it can produce any number one desires why bother with modeling at all?




When you forget what you were supposed to be arguing about on account of just enjoying arguing for the sake of it.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#255  Postby tuco » Jun 21, 2019 9:13 pm

Central European countries block EU moves towards 2050 zero carbon goal

The Czech prime minister, Andrej Babiš, had quipped on his arrival at the summit: “Why should we decide 31 years ahead of time what will happen in 2050?”


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... e-for-2050

---

I guess he was reading here. Just wait, soon he is gonna go about .. you know what, right? ;)
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#256  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 21, 2019 11:13 pm

The Czech prime minister, Andrej Babiš, had quipped on his arrival at the summit: “Why should we decide 31 years ahead of time what will happen in 2050?”


Ooh! I know! Because you're the fucking prime minister of a nation!
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#257  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 21, 2019 11:13 pm

tuco wrote:
I guess he was reading here. Just wait, soon he is gonna go about .. you know what, right? ;)



About wanking emoticons?
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#258  Postby laklak » Jun 22, 2019 3:19 am

We most definitely need a wanking emoticon.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#259  Postby tuco » Jun 22, 2019 5:27 am

Indeed, we also need no balls emoticon. Then we could combine the two: wanking with no balls.
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Re: The tale of our ecological footprints as best we can convey

#260  Postby Cito di Pense » Jun 22, 2019 6:27 am

tuco wrote:Central European countries block EU moves towards 2050 zero carbon goal

The Czech prime minister, Andrej Babiš, had quipped on his arrival at the summit: “Why should we decide 31 years ahead of time what will happen in 2050?”


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... e-for-2050

---

I guess he was reading here. Just wait, soon he is gonna go about .. you know what, right? ;)


My takeaway is that the political circus is going to continue. Just imagine how much bigger and more entertaining it will be with ten billion people instead of just two billion. Naturally, all those extra people are going to have green consciences because the tucos of the world will be there to admonish them and stomp their feetsies when the rest don't fall in line.

And quite naturally, most of them won't be racist, nativist bigots. Only the ones in charge.
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Translation by Elbert Hubbard: Do not take life too seriously. You're not going to get out of it alive.
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