World Population Decline Question

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World Population Decline Question

#1  Postby aufbahrung » Jun 11, 2020 8:18 pm

Still increasing, so how many need to die in real time for the counter to fall in real time? over this year.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#2  Postby Sgt Kelly » Jun 11, 2020 8:23 pm

135,604,800 deaths would mean no population growth this year.
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#3  Postby NineBerry » Jun 11, 2020 8:43 pm

Wrong side of the equation. Deaths don't help as long as there are still so many births. We need a lot of fewer births
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#4  Postby aufbahrung » Jun 11, 2020 9:00 pm

NineBerry wrote:Wrong side of the equation. Deaths don't help as long as there are still so many births. We need a lot of fewer births


Life-expectancy was in a near steady state. Now it is in decline, does that make a difference?
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#5  Postby BlackBart » Jun 11, 2020 9:05 pm

aufbahrung wrote:Still increasing, so how many need to die in real time for the counter to fall in real time? over this year.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/


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Re: World Population Decline Question

#6  Postby Thommo » Jun 11, 2020 9:08 pm

aufbahrung wrote:Now [Life-expectancy ] is in decline


Is that true?
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#7  Postby Hermit » Jun 11, 2020 11:41 pm

Thommo wrote:
aufbahrung wrote:Now [Life-expectancy ] is in decline


Is that true?

Well, mine is declining at a rate of 24 hours per day. :waah:
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#8  Postby aufbahrung » Jun 12, 2020 5:21 am

My 'now' is for the average lifespan of this thread, which I put at two or three years or less than that....and I'm assuming the trade collapse makes finding a cure for corona im[possible].
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#9  Postby campermon » Jun 12, 2020 8:36 am

aufbahrung wrote:My 'now' is for the average lifespan of this thread, which I put at two or three years or less than that....and I'm assuming the trade collapse makes finding a cure for corona im[possible].


The data sets here: https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy , seem to suggest that pandemics, world wars and market crashes had little effect on the overall trend of life expectancy during the 20th century.

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Re: World Population Decline Question

#10  Postby Alan B » Jun 12, 2020 10:18 am

Last year I created a spreadsheet to address the question of population growth. Using figures from the UN and Worldometers I arrived at this:
At the end of 2018:
World pop. 7,631,092,040
Total births: 149,204,000 (1.95521% of world pop.)
Total deaths: 57,625,000 (0.75513% of world pop.)
Pop. increase: 91,979,000 (1.2% of world pop.)
This gives a birth/death factor of 2.5892. Using the birth/death percentage figures as a change from year to year (these will obviously vary - but not by much, I suspect), over the next 100 years the population will increase to just under 25 billion (which is silly). Obviously something must happen before that figure is reached: A drastic reduction in births and/or a drastic increase in deaths. :dunno:
In 1951 the world pop. was 2,584,034,261. The present population gives an increase of over 5 billion in just under 70 years. To reduce the population to the 1951 figure will require a reduction of about 74 million per year for 70 years. Which with a birth rate of zero is higher than the present death rate - which is a nonsense.
The present pandemic (and future ones) will have little effect. The present Covid-19 death rate (today) is 0.0054% of the world population.
There have been various 'studies' which have suggested that the population will stabilize and 'level off' at about 11 billion (or thereabouts - the figures vary). What none of these 'studies' have defined is how births will 'suddenly' equal deaths or how deaths will 'suddenly' increase by over 2.5 times (or a mixture of both)...
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#11  Postby Alan B » Jun 12, 2020 10:32 am

Double post.
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#12  Postby Thommo » Jun 12, 2020 11:07 am

aufbahrung wrote:I'm assuming the trade collapse makes finding a cure for corona im[possible].


Right.
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#13  Postby Hermit » Jun 12, 2020 11:51 am

Alan B wrote:Last year I created a spreadsheet to address the question of population growth. Using figures from the UN and Worldometers I arrived at this:
At the end of 2018:
World pop. 7,631,092,040
Total births: 149,204,000 (1.95521% of world pop.)
Total deaths: 57,625,000 (0.75513% of world pop.)
Pop. increase: 91,979,000 (1.2% of world pop.)
This gives a birth/death factor of 2.5892. Using the birth/death percentage figures as a change from year to year (these will obviously vary - but not by much, I suspect), over the next 100 years the population will increase to just under 25 billion (which is silly). Obviously something must happen before that figure is reached: A drastic reduction in births and/or a drastic increase in deaths. :dunno:
In 1951 the world pop. was 2,584,034,261. The present population gives an increase of over 5 billion in just under 70 years. To reduce the population to the 1951 figure will require a reduction of about 74 million per year for 70 years. Which with a birth rate of zero is higher than the present death rate - which is a nonsense.
The present pandemic (and future ones) will have little effect. The present Covid-19 death rate (today) is 0.0054% of the world population.
There have been various 'studies' which have suggested that the population will stabilize and 'level off' at about 11 billion (or thereabouts - the figures vary). What none of these 'studies' have defined is how births will 'suddenly' equal deaths or how deaths will 'suddenly' increase by over 2.5 times (or a mixture of both)...
I'm having a Soylent Green moment here...

Births will not suddenly equal deaths, but they have closed in on it over the past half a century. Fertility rates have in fact halved in that time and there is no evidence for that downward trend to stop.

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Re: World Population Decline Question

#14  Postby newolder » Jun 12, 2020 11:59 am

What is the cause of the transition from the past to "Projection" being accompanied by a sudden, almost vertical, drop in the growth rate? :ask:
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#15  Postby Hermit » Jun 12, 2020 12:18 pm

newolder wrote:What is the cause of the transition from the past to "Projection" being accompanied by a sudden, almost vertical, drop in the growth rate? :ask:

Looking at the chart, the sudden, almost vertical, drop in the growth rate did not coincide with the point that divides past and projection. It appears to have commenced its precipitous dive somewhere around 1962.
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#16  Postby newolder » Jun 12, 2020 1:48 pm

It looks like 2015 to me and matches exactly with the transition.
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#17  Postby Alan B » Jun 12, 2020 4:10 pm

Population.xlsx
From UN and Worldometer data.
(71.92 KiB) Downloaded 66 times
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#18  Postby Macdoc » Jun 12, 2020 5:02 pm

UN projections are way off.

snip
But they always compensate with it when they look at the developing world. Well, John and I looked at the developing world and looked at the statistics and travelled to the developing world to look at what was going on — and [they're] not having as many babies as we think they are.

So, for example, India now — which everybody assumes has a huge fertility advantage over other countries — well, the Lancet just came up with a major demographic study that was published in November that showed it's [the birth rate] down to 2.1, just at replacement level.

China, as we already know, is at 1.5, but there's other demographers that say it's probably even lower than that.

So that's 40 per cent of the world's population. If kids aren't being born at the rate you need them to be to replace the population in those two places, it's not going to get to 11.2 billion. It's impossible for it to happen.


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Re: World Population Decline Question

#19  Postby aufbahrung » Jun 12, 2020 7:53 pm

i'm not sure population dynamics are possible to see if you believe in the planks constant and that human conception is less than that in its conceiving. Perhaps I'm missing the random determinate here?
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Re: World Population Decline Question

#20  Postby newolder » Jun 12, 2020 8:03 pm

The constant thickness of 2 short planks, or are you thinking of something other? Perhaps you are missing more than you can determine, here? :dunno:
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