RealityQuest wrote:Spearthrower wrote:It's kind of difficult to quote your post RQ because of the formatting.
My apologies. Damn iPhone app.
Oh I didn't mean for you to apologize, I was apologizing for not being able to quote you properly.
RealityQuest wrote:Spearthrower wrote:Points to note though: the link you provided shows that, were we to piss about with the water vapour content of the atmosphere as we've been doing with CO2, it would have just as catastrophic effects. That's the problem with the thin blue line - it's extraordinarily fragile, and nigh on all the things that live within it are entirely reliant on it for their well-being. This is not something we have a right to gamble with.
I agree that no one has the right to gamble with the future well-being of the human race. But I think you walked past the point I was making. Over the past decade WV dropped by 10%. That doesn't fit with the models that assign a positive feedback correlation between the two.
That's not what the article's talking about at all. For a start, it does not say that water vapour has dropped in the entire atmosphere by 10% in the last decade, it expressly talks about only one particular layer: that 10 miles and more above the surface. Secondly, it explains why the rate of temperature increase haven't followed the previous decades trends - look:
A 10 percent drop in water vapor ten miles above Earth’s surface has had a big impact on global warming, say researchers in a study published online January 28 in the journal Science. The findings might help explain why global surface temperatures have not risen as fast in the last ten years as they did in the 1980s and 1990s.
You've misread what it says.
RealityQuest wrote:Spearthrower wrote:As for measuring carbon - we don't need to go and check every factory, we can use numerous techniques to measure the ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere 200 years ago and then measure it now: necessarily, that shows the increase. Ice cores are one of many techniques that produces consilient data. Bubbles of air trapped in the ice are 'frozen' in time, so yes, perfectly measurable.
I agree that it's perfectly measurable in those terms. But human activity is only a small part of that net level. Those same bubbles show that co2 levels have been oscillating for millions of years quite apart from any human activity and we're not yet at the maximum level.
Of course they do, and they show that process happening over millions of years too - they never once show that process happening over decades... until post-industrialization. I don't wish to make any accusations RQ, but you're throwing out the all too typical denialist spins. Everyone with half a clue on the topic is very well aware that the climate varies greatly over the history of the Earth. Likewise, anyone with half a clue on the topic is very well aware that these climatic changes happen over geological times, not the generation spans of human primates.
RealityQuest wrote:Such persistent oscillation would seem to suggest some kind of balancing mechanism between co2 sources and co2 sinks.
That suggests it's meant to be that way rather than just falling towards the most stable point. The fact that the oscillations will completely change the habitability of the planet for the life-forms residing on it is also somewhat problematic. It is, of course, entirely guaranteed that the Earth will survive whatever we do to it, but the question is whether it will still be habitable for us afterwards.
RealityQuest wrote: The question then would be whether our additional co2 contribution is enough to overwhelm the natural co2 sinks and prevent the next tipping point. Has anyone figured out what caused the tipping points before there was human activity?
There are so many, I don't have time (or the expertise) to list them, but they include freeing of oxygen, volcanism, varying solar rates, magnetic variances in the poles etc etc etc
One thing of extreme import though is the time scales of such events: none of them match the time scales associated with the anthropogenic rate of climate change. Therein lies the key.
RealityQuest wrote:Spearthrower wrote:Regarding the urban heat effect, I requested that you cite the source for your claim, not the IPCC account and the fact that you are not convinced by it. The reason I ask this is because I know where the data comes from on these, and that it's long since been addressed. The only place that seems to continue to spawn such claims is in the denialist literature, which includes Crichton's propaganda fictional novels.
I honestly don't remember the source, although I'm certain you would have considered it right-wing propaganda--and rightly so in all probability. I didn't hang a lot of weight on it.
I'm not a very political person, so I don't care where the information comes from so much as whether it's aiming to acknowledge the facts or in denial of them. I just happen to have read Crichton's State of Fear (I think it was called) and decided to run some fact-checks. It was a heap of bullshit, pseudo presented as fact, in a fictional novel that was really more of a political manifesto than anything.
RealityQuest wrote:Remember, UE referred to it first when trying to characterize a family member's argument. I was just trying to clarify the point, not advance the argument itself. I was surprised however, how weakly the IPCC report addressed it when you pressed me for a source. BTW what was the source for it along with the refutation?
That's why I always ask for a source, because something that can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence, and it saves me time from going and collating links.
RealityQuest wrote:Spearthrower wrote:Incidentally, who do you think would have more scientific authority with respect to the climate and climatic interactions? The TV weatherman, or the IPCC?
Since the effect of wind/calm on surface temperature is a local phenomena, I'd give a meteorologist quite a lot of authority.
So the IPCC being a body of numerous meteorologists and other forms of climate experts, you'd place a higher weight on their authority?
RealityQuest wrote: The ones I can recall mentioning it are all gung-ho on AGW.
Have you considered whether that's because their professional expertise gives them sufficient understanding of the evidence to accept it as indisputable fact?
RealityQuest wrote: I was just curious about how the IPCC did the math in ruling UHI out as having any significant impact on the long term temperature record. I was puzzled by their assumption on the 270 locations given what I thought was common knowledge about wind vs calm. Here's a link showing I didn't just make it up. (seventh section, point 2-wind) Here's a link, if I have time to read it, that might answer for me what the IPCC didn't.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3730.1
Yeah, a bit too much for me to process right now, I'm supposed to be writing a film damnit!