June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

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June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#1  Postby johnbrandt » Aug 15, 2011 2:42 am

Finally dug it up...I knew I'd read it before some years back. It's a Time article from June 1974. Those of us at school back then wiull probably remember being told we were most likely heading for a new ice age. Interesting how the climate is always "changing" and scientists draw whatever conclusion and make whatever predictions they think suits at the time...
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html

In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada's wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone's recollection.

As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.

...cont'd...


It's easy to say "well they were obviously wrong"...but why aren't we allowed to say the same thing with the doom and gloom today?

Well...some of us are allowed to be two-faced about climate change...the esteemed Tim Flannery, the voice we are all supposed to listen to here in Oz and believe unquestioningly about climate change and disasterous predictions about the future, was in a spot of bother a while ago...
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/flannery_admits_no_chance_of_that_flooding_he_claimed_after_all
Professional alarmist Tim Flannery in 1996 warned that global warming would drown beachfront houses eight storeys high (see from 4:23):


Anyone with a coastal view from their bedroom window, or their kitchen window, or whereever, is likely to lose their house as a result of that change, so anywhere, any coastal cities, coastal areas, are in grave danger.

But the very next year he bought a house just four or five metres from the edge of the tidal waters around the Hawkesbury estuary:


According to property searches, in 1997 Professor Flannery bought one house on the Hawkesbury with his wife, Alexandra Leigh Szalay, for $274,000.

Five years later—even as climate scientists, including Professor Flannery, claimed evidence of global warming and rising sea levels was even more solid—the couple bought the property next door, for $505,000.

And now the shameless alarmists contradicts that earlier scare, without apologising for it:


For a week, Professor Flannery declined to speak to journalists about his properties, but he broke his silence yesterday to tell The Weekend Australian that while waterfront property generally was at risk, his little bit of paradise was secure for his lifetime.

”There is no chance of it being inundated, short of a collapse of the Greenland Ice Shelf,” Professor Flannery said.


Or this gem from the same article...
Let’s check on another Flannery scare from 2008 - his claim that the Arctic could be ice-free by 2013:

So, if you look at the data for the decay of the Arctic ice cap for example, that is just moving so quickly now. I mean last year was the worst year ever. People are saying, you know, that instead of the ice cap lasting a century, that maybe in five years there’ll be no Arctic ice cap. So you can’t look at things like that without seeing that we are in deep trouble.

Now being debunked:

Scientists say current concerns over a tipping point in the disappearance of Arctic sea ice may be misplaced…

Writing in the journal Science, the team found evidence that ice levels were about 50% lower 5,000 years ago.

They say changes to wind systems can slow down the rate of melting. They argue, therefore, that a tipping point under current scenarios is unlikely....

Dr Svend Funder from the Natural History Museum of Denmark ... and his team say their data shows a clear connection between temperature and the amount of sea ice. The researchers concluded that for about 3,000 years, during a period called the Holocene Climate Optimum, there was more open water and far less ice than today - probably less than 50% of the minimum Arctic sea ice recorded in 2007.

But the researcher says that even with a loss of this size, the sea ice will not reach a point of no return.

They must really hate the fact that recordings of what they said years ago are kept and wheeled out at inopportune moments... :doh: :lol:

...and they wonder why a huge number of people are skeptical about the whole scam... :nono:

Speaking of digging up old articles of uncomfortable content (uncomfortable when related to the warmists of today of course), there's this site with a lot of old articles and headlines...
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/08/14/1818-remarkable-disappearance-of-arctic-ice/
Call it "denialist" all you want...but the articles show that change has always been going on, with various predictions being made regarding what was observed at the time.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#2  Postby NineOneFour » Aug 15, 2011 4:13 am

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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#3  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » Aug 15, 2011 4:19 am

Here you go in video form John. (skip to 2.20 if you want)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU_AtHkB4Ms[/youtube]

No, scientists were not predicting another Ice Age. /thread.
Last edited by Ihavenofingerprints on Aug 15, 2011 4:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#4  Postby johnbrandt » Aug 15, 2011 4:21 am

So...Time magazine made it all up back then, and anyone who recalls being told about the possibility at school in the 1970's is lying?

I guess that means it's true...global warming is the only area of prediction and science that literally no dissent is allowed or tolerated, and heaven forbid you should actually dig up old articles which remind people of what was once held as gospel truth.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#5  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » Aug 15, 2011 4:27 am

WTF, show us one peer-reviewed paper from the 1970's predicting an ice-age. The majority were predicting global warming, and a few predicted global cooling. Not an ice-age. If you can't admit being wrong on this simple point, sorry but we may as well go home now. Actually we should have gone home as soon as we saw the thread title, this Time magazine "ice-age" canard is so old.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#6  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » Aug 15, 2011 4:41 am

johnbrandt wrote:
I guess that means it's true...global warming is the only area of prediction and science that literally no dissent is allowed or tolerated, and heaven forbid you should actually dig up old articles which remind people of what was once held as gospel truth.


From the video, i will even write it out word for word:

"A review published in the bulletin of the American Meteorological Society looked at the scientific literature rather than the popular press. 3 climatologists searched scientific journals between 1965 and 1979, and yes... They found 7 predicting not an Ice-Age, but global cooling.

The only problem is they found 44 in predicting global warming, even though the world was cooling in the 1970's and had been for 3 decades. Even so, 6 times as many climatologists predicted that the danger was global warming, not global cooling.

The reason is simple. By this time the mechanism of global warming was understood, the probable trigger for ice ages was beginning to be understood and the reason for global cooling was reasonably well understood. Climatologists suspected, as we now know, that it was caused by pollution mostly particulates and aerosols, which blocked sunlight. Even with all the uncertainty the majority of climatologists predicted that global warming, caused by carbon dioxide would eventually overwhelm any global cooling caused by pollution."

This ice-age argument is long dead.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#7  Postby Globe » Aug 15, 2011 6:08 am

johnbrandt wrote:So...Time magazine made it all up back then, and anyone who recalls being told about the possibility at school in the 1970's is lying?

I guess that means it's true...global warming is the only area of prediction and science that literally no dissent is allowed or tolerated, and heaven forbid you should actually dig up old articles which remind people of what was once held as gospel truth.

I remember that.
It was all over the news.
I must have been 6 or 7 years old, but recall with scaring clarity a program my father watched with great concentration.
A group of scientist discussing the (possible) oncoming ice age.
I was scared shitless for months, which is probably why I remember it so vividly.

As for papers. There's "Heys et al" 1976.
There's the "1975 NAS/NRC report".
There is "Imbrie & Imbrie" 1979.
and than Spencer Weart’s "History of Global Warming " which, among other thingsm discusses the possible onset of a new ice age and the factors involved in such onset,

Granted that most of those papers have been countered AT A LATER TIME. But they were serious bids on what was going to happen, at the time they were written.

It's noteworthy, if for nothing else than entertainment, that the Danish Meteorological Institute just yesterday published that this year had, so far, been the coldest in 49 year. Regional, focusing on the part of the world Denmark is located in, but none the less the coldest year. And since 1891 there has only been one summer colder than the one 49 years ago.
I bet it hurt like hell to publish that. :whistle:
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#8  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » Aug 15, 2011 6:39 am

Globe wrote:
As for papers. There's "Heys et al" 1976.


I read the first two pages of that paper: http://www.mantleplumes.org/WebDocuments/Hays1976.pdf

Just seems to be discussing the previous "ice-ages" and comparing it to the Earth's orbit. No alarm bells yet. So i skipped to the conclusion, maybe i missed the ice age predictions in between but here is what i found anyway:

summary wrote:6) It is concluded that changes in the
earth's orbital geometry are the funda-
mental cause of the succession of Quater-
nary ice ages.
7) A model of future climate based on
the observed orbital-climate relation-
ships, but ignoring anthropogenic ef-
fects, predicts that the long-term trend
over the next several thousand years is
toward extensive Northern Hemisphere
glaciation


It seems they predict some kind of glaciation period in the Northern Hemisphere within the next few thousand years. I don't think the authors were warning of any imminent ice age. Not the sort Time Magazine seemed to be implying anyway. Plus their prediction is ignoring anthropocentric effects.

As for the 2nd article you mentioned. I couldn't find a raw copy. Just blogs discussing how it didn't warn of any ice-age either.

http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nas-1975.html

This little-read report appears to serve as a useful summary of the state of opinion at the time (aside: I was prompted to read this by someone who thought the report supported the ice-age-was-predicted threoy [1]: as all too often happens, the report when actually read does no such thing...), which opinion was (my summary) "we can't predict climate yet, we need more research".



Whatever scare campaigns were around at the time seem to have come from the media. Not from the predictions of scientists.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#9  Postby Globe » Aug 15, 2011 7:13 am

I don't think there was a scare campaign actually.
I remember it because I watched the TV program I mentioned, and then was scared for months, until I collected enough nerve to ask my father about it. (Remember I was 6, and did not have that much understanding of what makes the world work as it does.)
And I also clearly remember his answer and explanation to me. :)

He took a couple of hours out of the day to give me an answer that was as full and comprehensive as he could give with his biologist background, but the gist of it was that what had been discussed in the program was that an Ice Age WOULD come, but that I did not have to worry as it would get warmer first, and then in a few thousand years temperature would plummet and create an Ice Age.
Not something I would have to worry about because it was highly unlikely that I would live that long. ;)

I got all his explanations confirmed when I started studying Geography, Geology and Climatology at university.
Global warming IS, under normal circumstances, a prelude to an Ice Age. And Ice Ages happen with a loosely fixed regularity.
Global Warming and Ice Ages are bound to each other and one triggers the other.
At least that is how it has been for millions of years.
If it is not the case this time around I would say we are in for some interesting times. But I doubt I will live long enough to see it.
Sigh..... Sometimes I would be nice to be able to live for thousands of years. :tehe:
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#10  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » Aug 15, 2011 7:32 am

Yea, no doubt an ice age will occur in the future. Hopefully by then we will have some master plan to live through it :lol: (assuming we make it that far)

As for this thread. Maybe mods could move it to conspiracy theories? A Time article making extraordinary claims without sources to back up those claims, and blog posts (full on unsubstantiated claims) from Andrew Bolt which doesn't use many sources either, and when it does they are usually misrepresented.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#11  Postby Globe » Aug 15, 2011 8:44 am

Ihavenofingerprints wrote:Yea, no doubt an ice age will occur in the future. Hopefully by then we will have some master plan to live through it :lol: (assuming we make it that far)

As for this thread. Maybe mods could move it to conspiracy theories? A Time article making extraordinary claims without sources to back up those claims, and blog posts (full on unsubstantiated claims) from Andrew Bolt which doesn't use many sources either, and when it does they are usually misrepresented.

Actually claiming that there is nothing to back it up is maybe taking it a bit far.
After all there is empirical evidence showing that ice ages DO occur, and that they occur relatively regularly. :)

And I don't think any of the articles claim that we should start migrating south and bundle up this very instant. :mrgreen:
(That I personally think we don't have to wait thousands of years is something I wont let influence my approach to this particular thread.)
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#12  Postby Ihavenofingerprints » Aug 15, 2011 9:26 am

Globe wrote:
Ihavenofingerprints wrote:Yea, no doubt an ice age will occur in the future. Hopefully by then we will have some master plan to live through it :lol: (assuming we make it that far)

As for this thread. Maybe mods could move it to conspiracy theories? A Time article making extraordinary claims without sources to back up those claims, and blog posts (full on unsubstantiated claims) from Andrew Bolt which doesn't use many sources either, and when it does they are usually misrepresented.

Actually claiming that there is nothing to back it up is maybe taking it a bit far.
After all there is empirical evidence showing that ice ages DO occur, and that they occur relatively regularly. :)

And I don't think any of the articles claim that we should start migrating south and bundle up this very instant. :mrgreen:
(That I personally think we don't have to wait thousands of years is something I wont let influence my approach to this particular thread.)


Yea true, the Time article itself isn't that bad. It is more the stuff following it (that gets me annoyed), copied/pasted from Andrew Bolt's blog. He is trying to imply that Tim Flannery claimed sea levels would rise to lower the price of seaside housing so he could purchase a house in the future. Yet the quote provided doesn't have a reference so we don't know when or where he made this statement. It is just ridiculous really. The people claiming we need to be more skeptical of climate science (in Australia) will take anything Andrew Bolt writes on his blog at face value, even though most of it is completely inaccurate garbage.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#13  Postby Globe » Aug 15, 2011 9:38 am

Ihavenofingerprints wrote:

Yea true, the Time article itself isn't that bad. It is more the stuff following it (that gets me annoyed), copied/pasted from Andrew Bolt's blog. He is trying to imply that Tim Flannery claimed sea levels would rise to lower the price of seaside housing so he could purchase a house in the future. Yet the quote provided doesn't have a reference so we don't know when or where he made this statement. It is just ridiculous really. The people claiming we need to be more skeptical of climate science (in Australia) will take anything Andrew Bolt writes on his blog at face value, even though most of it is completely inaccurate garbage.

Let's admit it.
Most of the discussions revolving around climate change IS silly.
Far too emotional, driven by economical reasons rather than scientific findings aso aso aso.....

Mind that I am talking about the DISCUSSIONS, not the science itself. Although that is somewhat silly as well, as they try to make predictions on something that they are only now beginning to get a tenuous grasp on. :)
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#14  Postby rEvolutionist » Aug 15, 2011 11:11 am

Oh John, up to your old tricks, eh? I'm interested if you will admit you made a mistake here. And there's no excuse, really. I remember telling you about a month ago that a lot of the stuff you remember from the 70's & 80's was almost certainly a media beat up.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#15  Postby johnbrandt » Aug 15, 2011 9:59 pm

So...what's going on today isn't a media beat-up? And it isn't just the media beating it up...the list of things that global warming will cause is just getting longer and more rediculous day by day.
There have been story after story predicting everything from the demise of pasta in Italy (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,575348,00.html), to advising owners to steer away from short nosed dog breeds (http://www.plentymag.com/blogs/extinction/2008/01/global_warming_bad_news_for_pu.php), to other ludicrous things such as a Un claim in 1990 that we only had a "ten year window" or by the year 2000 we would see "eco-refugees" and that "entire nations" would be wiped off the map...rubbish that shows that, in the words of a past scare-monger, "Unless we predict disasters, no one will listen"...forgetting that if you predict fuckwitted things that make people laugh at you and which are obviously not happening, no one will listen either...

Here's one well-known list of links to everything global warming is supposed to be affecting...
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Entertaining isn't it. And I still maintain that it must be embarassing for some alarmists that news items get archived away and dragged out years later to show how wrong they were...

Here's another list of the top ten predictions over the years about climate change (not global warming, as they aren't all about "warming"). http://rightwingnews.com/john-hawkins/10-global-warming-doomsday-predictions/
Deny it all you like, but people did actually believe this sort of thing and put out warnings about it. Don't blame me because I restrict myself to posting links to pro-global warming articles...there actually are a rebellious lot of people who actually question the whole idea and ask where the predictions results are that we were promisd we would be seeing by now, as heretical as that is...
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#16  Postby Doubtdispelled » Aug 15, 2011 10:12 pm

:coffee:
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#17  Postby Just A Theory » Aug 15, 2011 10:30 pm

johnbrandt wrote:

”There is no chance of it being inundated, short of a collapse of the Greenland Ice Shelf,” Professor Flannery said.


Or this gem from the same article...
Let’s check on another Flannery scare from 2008 - his claim that the Arctic could be ice-free by 2013:

So, if you look at the data for the decay of the Arctic ice cap for example, that is just moving so quickly now. I mean last year was the worst year ever. People are saying, you know, that instead of the ice cap lasting a century, that maybe in five years there’ll be no Arctic ice cap. So you can’t look at things like that without seeing that we are in deep trouble.

Now being debunked:

Scientists say current concerns over a tipping point in the disappearance of Arctic sea ice may be misplaced…

Writing in the journal Science, the team found evidence that ice levels were about 50% lower 5,000 years ago.

They say changes to wind systems can slow down the rate of melting. They argue, therefore, that a tipping point under current scenarios is unlikely....

Dr Svend Funder from the Natural History Museum of Denmark ... and his team say their data shows a clear connection between temperature and the amount of sea ice. The researchers concluded that for about 3,000 years, during a period called the Holocene Climate Optimum, there was more open water and far less ice than today - probably less than 50% of the minimum Arctic sea ice recorded in 2007.

But the researcher says that even with a loss of this size, the sea ice will not reach a point of no return.

They must really hate the fact that recordings of what they said years ago are kept and wheeled out at inopportune moments... :doh: :lol:

...and they wonder why a huge number of people are skeptical about the whole scam... :nono:



You do realise that Dr Funder's research was about the possibility of a tipping point based on the loss of arctic sea ice right and that Flannery specifically references the Greenland Ice Shelf right?

The two are not even remotely similar and it's a fantastic thing if loss of arctic sea ice will not tip us over the edge since we're very much on track to lose all of it - witness the opening of the northern passage. More to the point, the current loss of arctic sea ice and the reduction in planetary albedo thereof, is a trend which is unlikely to reverse anytime soon. That has grave consequences even absent any catastrophic tipping point. Now, melt the Greenland ice sheet or Siberian tundra and we'd have severe problems.

Note also that Dr Funder's paper does not claim that the warming effect is not happening, merely that one facet of this incredibly complex system will not lead to an irreversible tipping point. That's OK though, denialists often misrepresent or misunderstand scientific work.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#18  Postby theropod » Aug 15, 2011 11:32 pm

Image

SOURCE US Geological Survey.

Nope, no climate change happening at all anywhere. It's a made up story by liberals to brainwash the masses.

FUCK ME!

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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#19  Postby johnbrandt » Aug 15, 2011 11:59 pm

Can we agree then that apparently both sides of the "debate" (which we haven't actually been allowed to have) cherry pick to show thier arguement in the best light?

As for the "debate" that everyone keeps mentioning, and how it has been "settled", well the fact is that there hasn't been any debate...if you disagree, you are shouted down, even to the point of being discouraged to publish anything remotely skeptical...our own Prime Minister angrily told reporters at a meeting recently to "stop publishing crap" which disagreed with the holy party position on climate change and a carbon tax.

Here's an article on dissent...
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/dissent-makes-a-smarter-society/story-e6frgd0x-1226115488941
Take the global warming debate. On one side we have the government, government-funded organisations such as the CSIRO, government appointees such as the chief scientist and various activists, non-governmental organisations and academics asserting that the science is settled and debate is over.

This reaches beyond the uncontested claim that CO2 is a greenhouse gas to demanding acceptance of any number of conflicting and widely varying modelled predictions and policies designed to mitigate their effects.

They've even invented a new type of science called "sustainability science" where if you can think of a threat large enough you are justified in dealing with it as a fact before you have experimental evidence to prove it.

Opponents are tagged as "deniers" or "denialists" in a clear attempt to demean scepticism as immoral and irrational, equivalent to holocaust denial, and the Prime Minister berates sceptical journalists telling them not to "write crap".


Another interesting bit is this:
We even have high-profile academics such as ethics professor Clive Hamilton and federation scholar John Quiggin claiming that to even publish sceptical stories is evidence of bias.


So is any skeptisism allowed at all on the subject? Are people allowed to even question why they are being taxed to death to "fix" a problem we don't notice affecting us, and ask why we are repeatedly assured of predicitions of doom which just aren't happening? I don't mean a photo of a glacier... mean the alarmist predictions we were told in Australia maybe ten years ago that the Pacific islands were "vanishing" and would be soon gone...when they plainly aren't. Same with flooding coastlines. We don't see it happening.
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Re: June '74 Time article on the coming Ice Age...

#20  Postby MacIver » Aug 16, 2011 1:33 am

This isn't about green taxes. Politicians will always take advantage of situations for their own goals.

This isn't about the media. Journalists will always take advantage of situations for their own goals.

This has always been, and always will be about what the scientific consensus is. Peer reviewed science is a wonderful thing.

johnbrandt wrote:...the alarmist predictions we were told in Australia maybe ten years ago that the Pacific islands were "vanishing" and would be soon gone...when they plainly aren't.


Rising sea levels blamed on climate change are taking a toll on island nations in the South Pacific, with the world’s first climate refugees beginning a migration that is likely to continue for decades to come.

Inhabitants of parts of New Guinea and Tuvalu have already been forced to moved from low-lying areas.

New Zealand has agreed to accept migrants from Tuvalu, which experts think will be completely submerged by the middle of the century. Canada is funding the relocation of residents from parts of Vanuatu affected by global warming.

Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization warned in a recent report that the Pacific region is particularly vulnerable.

It warned of coastal communities already being inundated by rising seas, the loss of wetlands and coral bleaching, as well as an increase in disease and heat-related mortality resulting from climate change.

“Communities all over the Pacific are alarmed at coastal erosion and the advancing sea levels,” said Diane McFadzien, the South Pacifics regional climate change coordinator with the World Wildlife Fund. “We are already seeing signs of whole villages having to relocate … or important cultural sites such as burial grounds in Fiji being eroded.”


Link

Actually, they are.
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