Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earthquake

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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#242  Postby jez9999 » Mar 19, 2011 5:14 pm

K, so it looks like the spent fuel pools in 5 and 6 are relatively stable. Reactors 1 and 3 are stable, 2 is stable but maybe leaking a bit of radioactive steam. Spent fuel pools in 3 and 4 are still pretty dangerous and I read about a leak in spent fuel pool 4, which if true means they'll have to keep putting loads of water in it until they fix it even if they get cooling started again.

If/when they get this stabilized, they need to get all that nuclear fuel out of there. The plant is a complete mess. If they have another earthquake and another tsunami, whilst the fuel is there, the consequences could be disastrous.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#243  Postby Darkchilde » Mar 19, 2011 7:35 pm

jez9999 wrote:K, so it looks like the spent fuel pools in 5 and 6 are relatively stable. Reactors 1 and 3 are stable, 2 is stable but maybe leaking a bit of radioactive steam. Spent fuel pools in 3 and 4 are still pretty dangerous and I read about a leak in spent fuel pool 4, which if true means they'll have to keep putting loads of water in it until they fix it even if they get cooling started again.

If/when they get this stabilized, they need to get all that nuclear fuel out of there. The plant is a complete mess. If they have another earthquake and another tsunami, whilst the fuel is there, the consequences could be disastrous.


I think that this is their plan. They need to stabilize everything first, be certain that it is stable and afterwards remove the rods, and dismantle the plant.

I think that this is actually a when they will get it stabilized.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#244  Postby Matt_B » Mar 19, 2011 10:01 pm

Darkchilde wrote:I think that this is their plan. They need to stabilize everything first, be certain that it is stable and afterwards remove the rods, and dismantle the plant.

I think that this is actually a when they will get it stabilized.


That's probably plan A.

Plan B would be to entomb the fuel and reactors in concrete when safe, and wait for the site to cool off before any permanent clean-up is attempted. Given that the whole plant is certainly a write-off by now this may well prove the more prudent option.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#245  Postby Macdoc » Mar 20, 2011 12:05 am

Likely a write off except for the deep pool fuel rods
Might not be a bad site for a MOX plant since the area is contaminated

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Just think - it's going to stop being news soon......

Fukushima nuclear accident: Saturday 19 March summary
Posted on 20 March 2011 by Barry Brook

Last Saturday the the crisis level at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station was rapidly on the rise. Hydrogen explosions, cracks in the wetwell torus and fires in a shutdown unit’s building — it seemed the sequence of new problems would never end. A week later, the situation remains troubling, but, over the last few days, it has not got any worse. Indeed, one could make a reasonable argument that it’s actually got better.

Yes, the IAEA has now formally listed the overall accident at an INES level 5 (see here for a description of the scales), up from the original estimate of 4. This is right and proper — but it doesn’t mean the situation has escalated further, as some have inferred. Here is a summary of the main site activities for today, followed by the latest JAIF and FEPC reports. You also might be interested in the following site map:

Another large cohort of 100 Tokyo fire fighters joined the spraying operation to cool down the reactors and keep the water in the spent fuel ponds. The ‘Hyper Rescue’ team have set up a special vehicle for firing a water cannon from 22 m high (in combination with a super pump truck), and today have been targeting the SNF pond in unit 3. About 60 tons of sea water successfully penetrated the building in the vicinity of the pool, at a flow rate of 3,000 litres per minute. Spraying with standard unmanned vehicles was also undertaken for 7 hours into other parts of the the unit 3 building (delivering more than 1,200 tons), to keep the general containment area cool. The temperature around the fuel rods is now reported by TEPCO (via NHK news) to be below 100C.

Conditions in unit 3 are stabilising but will need attention for many days to come. Promisingly, TEPCO has now connected AC cables to the unit 1 and 2 reactor buildings, with hopes that powered systems can be restored to these building by as early as tomorrow (including, it is hoped, the AC core cooling systems), once various safety and equipment condition checks are made.

Holes were made in the secondary containment buildings of Units 5 and 6 as a precautionary measure, to vent any hydrogen that might accumulate and so prevent explosions in these otherwise undamaged structures. The residual heat removal system for these units has now been brought back on line and these pools maintain a tolerable steady temperature of 60C. More here. These buildings were operating on a single emergency diesel generator, but now have a second electricity supply via the external AC power cable.


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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#246  Postby Matt_B » Mar 20, 2011 1:02 pm

Christ Huhne doesn't seem too optimistic for the future for nuclear power in the UK:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011 ... ear-option

Then again, he was flat out anti-nuclear when in opposition.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#247  Postby susu.exp » Mar 20, 2011 2:54 pm

I have to say that I wonder how the pro-nuclear fraction comes to their conclusions about safety. There are two possible methods here:
a) you base your estimate of the rate at which particular types of accident happen on the rate at which they have occured. If you do this, then removing Chernobyl, TMI etc. is pretty much cherry picking. We know that we have low rates of incidents and for that reason alone you have to include all of them.
b) you base your estimate on estimates for certain situations and the likelihood incidents are averted under those. In this case you can actually look only at nuclear facilities that currently operate. But you have to note that these estimates are based on assumptions about external factors and these are prone to errors. When 2nd generation plants were built in Germany, the estimated rate was one major incident (INES 5+) in 250,000 years per facility. In 1989 this had gone to one in 33,000 years. Currently it´s 10-12,000 years. The reason the rate has gone up is that more external events have been looked into (after 9/11 planned plane crashes were taken into consideration and their probability estimated by checking how likely it would be for a terrorist group to try it and how likely it could be stopped, etc.). Even at 1:33,000 years the probability that you would see at least one INES 5+ incident in 50 years is 0.2% for a single facility and 27.3% for the 210 facilities worldwide. Even by this estimate 2 INES 5+ incidents would have a probability of 4%.
If we assume that modern facilities are better than these estimates and use the one in 250,000, we get a probability of more than 4% over a 50 year period.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#248  Postby jez9999 » Mar 20, 2011 7:22 pm

Huhne can go suck his cock. He's always been part of the willfully ignorant anti-nuclear lobby. He's only accepted it because the Tories forced him to. Of course he's gonna leap on this to try and cast doubt on the future of nuclear in the UK.

As far as that risk probability assessment, presumably it includes all plants in all locations worldwide. That's including places that have earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and maybe even wars. I think that in the UK, the risk would be substantially lower than that and so in the UK's case, I think nuclear power is extremely safe.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#249  Postby susu.exp » Mar 20, 2011 8:55 pm

The rates given are those for Germany. Leurs et al. 2003 "Environmentally harmful support measures in EU member states" - CE, Delft (NL) (p.137) gives a few numbers. According to this, there´s one assessment for the UK, based on Hinkley point, giving a rate of 1 in 1,000,000, the same study gives the 1:33,000 years estimate (hence similar changes may have to be maed in the UK, though I can´t find any data). It´s worth noting that the list includes estimates other countries and Japan is estimated by no other than Fukushima, with a lited risk of 1 in 10,000,000. I.e. it´s 10 times as safe as the estimate for the UK. In fact of all nuclear power plants for which estimates existed in 2003, Fukushima was rated the safest, based on estimates that included earthquake and Tsunami occurances.
Lears et al. note that 1:20,000 years is a good global estimate and give a probability of about 20% for a core meltdown in Europe within 25 years.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#250  Postby jez9999 » Mar 20, 2011 9:01 pm

Sounds like complete bollocks to me. If they are including old plants, maybe they have a point. If they're including plants built 1970 or later, I'm not aware of one single serious nuclear incident in UK or France during that time so I don't know where they get anything higher than 0% from.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#251  Postby Macdoc » Mar 20, 2011 9:08 pm

Common sense on radiation......and an excellent pie chart...

Why I stay in Tokyo
僕が東京にとどまる理由

[This commentary contains footnotes and links that allow you to verify what I am saying.]

Thousands have left Tokyo recently in a panic about the perceived radiation threat. If you ask any one of them to precisely articulate what the threat consists of, they will be unable to do so. This is because they actually don’t know, and because in fact there is no threat justifying departure, at least not from radioactivity (*).They flee because they have somehow heard that there is a threat – from the media, their embassies, their relatives overseas, friends, etc. These sources of information, too, have never supplied a credible explanation for their advisories.

But they have managed to create a mass panic,

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/20/why-i-stay-in-tokyo/
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#252  Postby susu.exp » Mar 20, 2011 9:52 pm

jez9999 wrote:Sounds like complete bollocks to me. If they are including old plants, maybe they have a point. If they're including plants built 1970 or later, I'm not aware of one single serious nuclear incident in UK or France during that time so I don't know where they get anything higher than 0% from.


Using the international average and the number of european reactors younger than 1970 I get a 69.7% chance of no accident.
Where are they getting anything but 0 from? They estimate probabilities for things that can go wrong. That´s how you do this if you have an insufficient data base. And if you are looking at these rates, an estimate from the mean number of accidents for running reactors would take a couple of 100 years. And of course your idea to only include the current reactor design back to 40 years means you will never have a proper risk assessment. Your empirical rate is given by the inverse of the mean time a facility has been running until it blows up. So it´s 0 you say, if none did blow up. Yup. And the standard deviation for this is infinite. Which means that your estimate from actual core meltdowns is as unreliable as it goes. Hence that´s not what people use when they write papers to assess the risk.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#253  Postby Matt_B » Mar 20, 2011 10:54 pm

jez9999 wrote:Huhne can go suck his cock. He's always been part of the willfully ignorant anti-nuclear lobby. He's only accepted it because the Tories forced him to. Of course he's gonna leap on this to try and cast doubt on the future of nuclear in the UK.


Perhaps, but he is the Secretary of State for Energy, and is speaking with a government hat on. If his comments had been particularly out of line I'm sure there'd have been clarification from the Prime Minister's office by now. That we've not heard a peep out of the pro-nuclear Tories over the past week doesn't surprise me at all though.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#255  Postby Jumbo » Mar 21, 2011 2:21 am

a) you base your estimate of the rate at which particular types of accident happen on the rate at which they have occured. If you do this, then removing Chernobyl, TMI etc. is pretty much cherry picking. We know that we have low rates of incidents and for that reason alone you have to include all of them.

Again though Chernobyl being result not only of negligence in operation but also of a ridiculous design that no one outside the Soviet Union (and its immediate sphere of influence) would dream of using. TMI resulting in no casualties and exceptionally limited impact other than the FUD produced.

Lears et al. note that 1:20,000 years is a good global estimate and give a probability of about 20% for a core meltdown in Europe within 25 years.

A core meltdown though is expensive for the operator and unfortunate for the insurer. (Looking into it Plants are insured and many countries require them to be insured often to a higher degree that other industrial sized infrastructure which has higher risk to the public) It does not mean it has any effect whatsoever for the public and may include no release of radiation whatsoever to the outside world. Any nuclear incident is only an issue if there is loss of containment of radioactive material.

The INES scale is partly subjective and as such can result in some situations where the events are hard to relate to each other. Again take TMI. That has the same rating as the IMO significantly more serious Windscale fire. The latter being a disaster at essentially a military facility and did involve release of material and the former again harming no one and releasing little. That for me makes papers which calculate the probabilities of INES 5+ events somewhat meaningless because events of that scale are so diverse in their actual impact.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#256  Postby Jumbo » Mar 21, 2011 2:33 am

Huhne can go suck his cock. He's always been part of the willfully ignorant anti-nuclear lobby.

indeed.

He seemed to advocate coal if it included carbon capture. I may be wrong but doesn't carbon capture just reduce the CO2 release? In other words other things still get flung into the environment. That means they still emit many times the uranium and thorium waste that a nuclear plant normally does.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#257  Postby Matt_B » Mar 21, 2011 8:34 am

Jumbo wrote:
Huhne can go suck his cock. He's always been part of the willfully ignorant anti-nuclear lobby.

indeed.

He seemed to advocate coal if it included carbon capture. I may be wrong but doesn't carbon capture just reduce the CO2 release? In other words other things still get flung into the environment. That means they still emit many times the uranium and thorium waste that a nuclear plant normally does.


The term carbon capture covers a variety of technologies, some of which just concentrate on the carbon but others will deal with other pollutants as well.

I think it mostly makes sense with natural gas power stations. For these, you're already pumping gas into the station, and water back into the gas field to stabilize it, so CO2 and other pollutants can just be dissolved into this water first. Pretty much any new gas power station can be equipped this way and the extra costs aren't exorbitant.

The idea of clean coal is much more dubious though. For starters there's that much more carbon to capture and nowhere obvious for it to go; some can be pumped into already depleted oil and gas fields as above, but certainly not all of it. Plus, the loss of efficiency means even more of it needs to be mined for the same amount of power and that's an environmentally damaging process in itself.

On the whole, I'd think it's best seen as an interim technology to buy us some time to come up with improved nuclear plants and investigate reneweables, and I'd take a dim view of those who wish to see it as something that cold kick the latter two into touch entirely.
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#258  Postby ConnyRaSk » Mar 21, 2011 1:37 pm

for your information: http://xkcd.com/radiation/
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#259  Postby cherries » Mar 21, 2011 2:18 pm

nuclear power stations in earthquake zones,worldwide

Image

chances of an earthquake occurring

10%chance of an earthquake occurring in the next 50 years

. nuclear power stations

very high risk

high risk

medium risk

low risk

http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/bild-751896-193759.html
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Re: Nuclear Power Safety in the Aftermath of the Japan Earth

#260  Postby jez9999 » Mar 21, 2011 6:25 pm

So even Der Spiegel admits that the vast majority of nuclear reactors (outside Japan) are built in low-risk zones. Combine that with the safety of modern plants and you don't have much to protest about. :-)
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