Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

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Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#1  Postby Alan B » Aug 03, 2018 6:08 pm

I posted this article on the 'other forum' but I've modified it a bit, cutting out some stuff and adding other stuff. It mostly concerns the UK, but it can be applied world-wide. I'm not sure how many members here 'dip in' to the 'other forum' so I thought I would post the later version here for any extra comments.
Introduction. At the moment any person who can own a car can conveniently fill it with fuel at communal filling stations scattered around the country. Since it has been suggested that all diesel and petrol cars and vans be replaced by electric and hybrid cars and vans sometime in the future, then the location of charging points, their availability and the electrical power generation required for the electric only vehicles must be considered. (When fossil fuels are no longer available, hybrid vehicles may no longer be possible).

Battery Charging: The calculations used here for battery charging are simplistic calculations based upon the charging power per charging time which must equal the battery capacity. For example, depending upon the battery technology, to fully charge a 100 kilo-Watt-hour (kWh) capacity battery it needs to be charged at a 10kW power level for ten hours; 100kW for one hour; 200kW for half an hour, etc. A five minute full charge for a 100kWh battery would therefore require a charge level input of 1,200kW. A battery that is not ‘empty’ will still require the maximum power input charging rate that the battery design can handle, but for a shorter time period until it is full. If the power input is deliberately restricted, then the charge time will increase. To illustrate this in non-technical terms, consider filling a bucket with water from a tap. The tap is turned on full and regardless if the bucket is empty, quarter-full or half-full, it is kept on full flow until the bucket is full. Only then will the water flow be stopped. If less time is required to fill the bucket or a larger bucket is required to be filled in the same time, then the water supply pressure (the “voltage”) or flow volume (the “current”) must be increased accordingly. This is exactly the same principle when charging a battery.

Advisory: The calculations in this article use only basic Primary School arithmetic applied to elementary Secondary School science (Ohm’s Law). They are minimum figures for maximum theoretical usage and do not take into account battery technology, charging methods, any losses accompanying power generation and dedicated power distribution infrastructure or traffic flow conditions. All comments and results relate to the United Kingdom unless otherwise stated.

1. Consider. If electrical charging with the convenience of petrol and diesel is not technologically possible:
a. Ideally, each car owner’s living accommodation should have a charging point allocated to their property. Each charging point could have multiple outputs for families with more than one vehicle. For single houses with off-road parking this may not be a problem. The charging system can be connected to the household supply (for long term or ‘overnight’ charging) and added to the electricity bill. The alternative could be to install a charging point outside each property resulting in extensive road works and perhaps a dedicated infrastructure.

b. Where there is no off-road parking adjacent to a property, there could be a problem with designated parking spaces with charging points and payment facilities causing congestion and maybe conflict, particularly with multiple car-ownership families. Commercial vans could be charged at company premises. Single traders could have a problem with other car-owning family members. And, of course, there is theft and vandalism to consider.

c. With multiple storey accommodation the problem could be insurmountable: 120 flats in a tower block could require 120 minimum designated parking spaces, either underground or surrounding the property or both, each with access to a charging point with either card payment or designated to a particular flat’s electricity supply. Each flat will also have to cater for multiple vehicle ownership per family. If not, then there would be a premium rate for flats with those facilities. If a flat has no charging facilities, and the resident becomes a car owner, would they then have to move to the appropriate accommodation if there are no local charging points?

d. Communal parking areas, either public or ‘at work’ company premises, with each space allocated a charging point could be considered. Where land space is at a premium, multi-storey car parks could be built or modified with each parking bay to have its own charging point and electronic payment facility. This could be inconvenient, forcing people without a local charging facility to possibly walk home at night in maybe unsafe areas and putting themselves at risk. This could also incur extra security systems and/or patrols.

e. There could also be a problem with remote communal parking and charging, ensuring that for any car on charge, the electricity used is paid for. There may be a case for some form of ‘locking mechanism’ (either mechanical or some other means) that prevents a driver leaving without paying. Or maybe electronic vehicle recognition linked to a national database - no road tax, charging system locked - and overseas visitors must pre-register. The amount of extra work (a ‘stand-alone’ charger for each parking space with a data link for electronic payment) and raw materials and labour required (high-current copper cabling, road works, power distribution, transformers and pylons, etc.) could be prohibitive. Remote country locations could be a problem.

f. There are about 35 million licensed cars and vans on the UK roads (2016 figures). Will they (in the future of an ‘all electric’ UK) each require access to a dedicated parking space with a ‘long-term’ or ‘over-night’ charging point? What would be the practical minimum number of charging points required to service this number of vehicles since not all 35 million EVs will be on charge at the same time?. See “DVLA: Vehicle Licensing Statistics: Annual 2016”.

g. On the assumption that all electric cars and vans are fitted with a 30kWh battery (e.g. Nissan LEAF or similar) and charged for five hours from empty to full from a 220v/240v ‘home’ source, it would require a continuous 6kW (until full) from each domestic household supply per vehicle. In order to supply 35 million such vehicles for ‘overnight’ charging, the additional national power generating capacity would need to be in the order of 210,000 Megawatts (6kW x 35 million) minimum during the charging period (the power drain will reduce as each battery reaches ‘full’ - some sooner than others). At maximum simultaneous usage this would be equivalent to more than 64 Hinkley Point C nuclear power stations at 3,260 Megawatts each. To put it another way, the power of one Hinkley Point C nuclear power station will only be able to charge 544,000 such vehicles. The domestic supply cabling to each road/street/district will need to be upgraded to accommodate the additional current drain of 26 Amperes per vehicle that is being charged from the domestic supply. A domestic double electric oven will require about 20 to 40 Amperes. The battery size range, at present, is detailed in “Battery University BU-1003” and range from 4.4kWh to 90kWh. Charge times and charger powers are also given. Some of these batteries may not be able to be charged from a ‘domestic’ supply. In fact, the article suggests that for the larger batteries, cooking and clothes-drying should be finished before charging.

h. If ‘long term’ charging is the only alternative, the car owner may no longer have the flexibility to choose where to charge their vehicle. It would not be beyond the stretch of the imagination for it to become a habit for vehicles to be automatically ‘plugged-in’ at any convenient point after a day’s work whether or not they require charging. This could become an unnecessary power consuming habit, placing an instant maximum load for each vehicle on the power generation and distribution network. A car that is parked in a charging bay and is seen not connected to a charging point, could result in conflict with a car owner whose car needs to be charged.

i. Recently, the UK government has suggested that new housing will be fitted with EV charge points. It was also suggested that street-lighting will be commandeered for this function. This seems like a good move. No mention of charging voltage, supply voltage or the battery type and capacity. It is from this information that the load current (Amperes) on the supply distribution network can be determined and therefore any upgrading that may be required to the supply cabling. Considering the number of vehicles involved in the future, this approach seems to be a piece-meal approach to give the impression that the government is ‘doing something’ while no mention is made of future power requirements and generation. The whole approach seems to be relying on ‘off-peak’ power availability. Then there is the problem of vandalism and theft of the charging equipment…

2. If new technology is introduced that would allow hypothetical ‘instant’ full charging - say, fifteen minutes or even five minutes - with the same convenience of use as petrol and diesel, most of the parking and ‘home’ charging problems listed above could disappear. This could entail replacing or converting existing filling station forecourts with fast electrical charging technology.

a. Fast charging will require new battery technology and a suitably rated charger and power supply infrastructure. In the following calculations only one size of EV battery is considered: 30kWh. The calculations are based upon two ‘full-charge’ charging times: 15 minutes and 5 minutes.

b. For the 15 minute charging time, the power demand from the charger will be four times the battery capacity: 120kW. With an assumed charging voltage of 400v at the battery terminals, the current demand by the batteries from the charger will be 300 Amperes.

c. For the 5 minute charging time, the power demand from the charger will be twelve times the battery capacity: 360kW. With an assumed charging voltage of 400v at the battery terminals, the current demand by the batteries from the charger will be 900 Amperes.

d. The figures and comments below indicate the power required for a theoretical maximum usage (all forecourts - “Rush Hour”) situation. Reducing the power generation to an artificially assumed ‘maximum’ traffic flow condition scenario (for cost, technical or political reasons) could allow ‘bottleneck’ situations or localised power reductions or ‘outage’ to occur when there is unexpected high demand.

e. In 2016 there were 8,476 ‘forecourts’ in the UK: “UKPIA Statistical Review 2017 page 33”. For the sake of simplicity, assume that each forecourt has four dual output pumps - eight pumps - giving a total of 67,808 pumps nationwide. If they are all replaced, (or, indeed, scattered around the country at convenient charging points to service 35 million vehicles), to enable a fifteen minute full charge (30kWh battery, 120kW charging power) then it would require an extra power generating capacity of 8,137 Megawatts minimum. This is equivalent to about 2.5 Hinkley Point C nuclear power stations (at 3,260 Megawatts each) - one of which has yet to be built. This assumes all charging points to be in use at the same time - “rush hour” conditions.

f. If five-minute full charge batteries (30kWh) are used, the charger ratings will increase to 360kW resulting in three times the above figures in 2e, (24,410 Megawatts), requiring the equivalent of 7.5 Hinkley Point C nuclear power stations.

g. Obviously, there must be an acceptable compromise with battery size and charging time if universal "instant" EV charging is to be realised in practice. With such a compromise, ‘overnight’ charging (see section 1. above), that may also take place, must also be allowed for.

h. An enforced limited power generating capacity (again, for cost, technical or political reasons) could also mean the imposition of forecourt power sharing and time-band allocation systems. This will not be very convenient or popular if there are conflicting and unexpected high demands at local forecourts connected to the same distribution network and if the forecourts and energy supply are owned and controlled by different companies as they are at present. This can perhaps be reduced if charging points are installed in non-forecourt areas.

i. All the above seems to suggest that there will be a problem with sufficient power generation for this ‘electric cars and vans’ proposal. If this is so, then why are some electric vehicle manufacturers appearing to concentrate on high performance vehicles and 350kW so-called “Ultra-Fast” chargers (“20 minutes for 300km”)? See: “Elektrek - November 29, 2016”. With the limited electrical power generating technology that exists, now or in the immediate future, this approach by some of the electric vehicle manufacturers seems pointless and inconsiderate - seemingly to distract the public and those in power from the overall problem. Or maybe it’s a ploy to make money from the rich and gullible ‘while the sun shines’. (Or until fossil fuels run out or maybe until the realisation that sufficient electrical power generation and the dedicated charging infrastructure might be beyond reach). But, there may be a place for 350kW chargers when HGVs (300kWh battery?) become ‘all-electric’.

Developing new battery technology to be safe, charge quickly, environmentally friendly and inexpensive is desirable and essential, but irrelevant with respect to the energy supply required. Whatever battery technology the future brings, it will not change the total energy required to fully charge a battery, whether it is for five minutes or five hours. The shorter the time required to fully charge a battery, the greater the instant load on the supply and distribution network and vice versa. For example, as stated above, a ‘five-minute full charge battery’ will require a charging power input of twelve times the battery capacity in kWh, even if the battery is half or three-quarters full - (albeit for a shorter time). The laws of physics are paramount.

To avoid the extra energy generation required, with associated pollution from any fossil fuels used, it would be more sensible to make it incumbent on vehicle manufacturers to produce low to ‘zero’ emission internal combustion vehicles of better design with more efficient particulate filters and noxious by-product prevention together with corrective technology for existing vehicles. This will only be a short term solution when considering the finite availability of fossil fuels. An alternative could be to develop a hydrogen economy (‘zero’ pollution - water exhaust only). But a hydrogen economy - fuel cell or internal combustion - has its problems with the amount of energy required to extract and process the hydrogen suitable for transport and convenient usage. The energy used for extraction will always be greater than the net energy obtained from hydrogen combustion. A plentiful, stable clean energy source could possibly make this an appealing option. However, new research suggests that there may be a possibility to extract hydrogen in situ... See the New Scientist: 3rd August 2017 “Nano aluminium offers fuel cells on demand - just add water.” If viable, this could see the demise of the battery-laden vehicle.

Given the rough and simplistic calculations above, it would be unwise to concentrate solely on the battery vehicle solution unless there is a stable, continuous, clean source of electrical energy generation such as, for example, nuclear fusion power. But that seems to be a pipe-dream in many people’s minds. Even so, fusion power by itself may not be able to provide all the required electrical energy. Wind, tidal and solar power can be developed to their maximum, but at best they are seasonal and weather conditions dependent. Tidal power must take into account the future effects of global climate change that will change the tide levels. With solar power the geographical latitude must also be taken into account. Wind power would seem to be the more sustainable method. A wind turbine can generate about 2 to 3.5 Megawatts (at present) depending upon wind speed. In the ‘15-minute charging’ scenario with a 30kWh battery (see section 2e. above), to supply the required 8,137 Megawatts would need 4,068 turbines at 2 Megawatts per turbine (taking the lower wind speed figure). 5-minute charging (30kWh battery) will increase the above figures by a factor of three. If ‘fast charging’ is not feasible (see section 1. above), then the number of extra turbines, at 2 Megawatts output each, would be 105,000. These figures can obviously be improved in future turbine designs.

The major problem with the ideas that “all new cars and vans shall be electric (or hybrid) after 2040” or that “all new cars after 2030 shall be electric”, is that the politicians have not thought it through or do not have the education (or inclination) to understand what unbiased experts (scientists, engineers and other non-vested interests) are trying to say. With the impending running out of fossil fuels and the disincentive for their continued use, no politician (or any government) appears to be publically considering, with a sense of urgency, developing and financing research for a stable long-term clean energy source, for example, nuclear fusion power (assuming it is feasible). Other non-finite power sources are weather and location dependent, all of which will require the appropriate storage technology to offset the inevitable down-times when zero electricity is being generated. However, there is one other energy source that has not yet been fully explored in the UK. It promises to be clean, less polluting to the environment and theoretically unlimited and that is, geothermal power. The geology of the UK will need to be examined to determine if it can be a viable contributor to the energy required for this electric vehicle scenario.

But, in the long term, it would seem that the future of electric vehicles in the UK may have to depend on a mixture of all the known (and future) methods of electrical power generation. It could be that no single source can completely satisfy the EV scenario. It should also be borne in mind that the UK is an island and relies on the EU for energy transfer during peak periods or unexpected demand (Winter). After Brexit that could become prohibitively expensive or even stopped - they will have their own EV power generation and distribution network problems.

Most politicians, at the best of times, appear to be not technologically minded and are easy prey to high pressure sales and, er, ‘lobbying’ from the manufacturers of this “Wonderful new electric car - it can accelerate 0 to 60 mph in less than three seconds! Wow!” or “Our new battery can be fully charged in five minutes.” sort of approach, which, in the long term, will be irrelevant without the necessary power supply generation and distribution infrastructure in place. Polluting fuels will still have to be used to power electricity generating stations in the absence of sufficient wind, tidal, solar, geothermal and nuclear power (fusion or fission). Or maybe the politicians are aware of these problems, but are choosing to keep quiet for their own personal, political and financial reasons.

The best that some UK politicians seem to be able to come up with is that all households should install solar panels nationwide with battery storage which can then be fed into the National Grid - this assumes that the National Grid distribution network can handle the extra power required. This suggestion does have some merit and needs to be considered in more detail and pursued and instituted where possible. But, there seems to be no awareness in the political spectrum about the required amount of solar cell and battery raw materials (and the energy-cost of manufacture), how and where the batteries are to be stored to satisfy safety regulations, servicing and repair of the systems and who will pay for any property installations and modifications. Then there is the small matter of developing training courses and finding the right quality and number of people to be trained for installation, servicing and repair of all systems, after Brexit. The move to vehicle electrification is EU-wide - if not world-wide - and the human resource (supply and training) will be at a premium. The movement of qualified personnel between countries will be difficult to stop whether or not Brexit becomes a reality.

By its nature, solar power may not be able to provide a stable and constant input to the National Grid since it will depend upon the variable energy consumption of each household, the time of day, storage facilities, and, of course, the weather and geographical latitude.

For instance, assuming south facing solar panels in midsummer at midday with zero cloud cover, the maximum power produced (at the London latitude) will be about 40 Watts per square metre with 20% efficient solar panels. Or 81.5 million square metres equivalent to a Hinkley Point C nuclear power station. In midwinter, given the same weather conditions and location, the power output will be about 4 Watts per square metre, requiring ten times the solar panel area for a Hinkley Point C nuclear power station equivalent (or 500 square metres for a 2kW electric fire). See “Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air”.

Throughout the above it should become obvious that the shorter the charging time for a particular battery design, the greater the instant demand on the electricity supply when it is connected to a charger. This demand will remain constant (more or less) until the battery is fully charged. To determine the actual load on the supply one must apply a simple calculation: “60 minutes” divided by the “charging time in minutes” multiplied by the “battery capacity (kilo-watt-hours)”. A manufacturer (Fisker) has recently claimed a ‘one minute’ charge time for a battery design. If this is realised in a 30kWh battery, then using the calculation above, the supply load will be a constant 1.8 Megawatts until charging is complete, albeit for one minute only. At an assumed 400 volts charging voltage, the charging current would be 4,500 Amperes. One would expect that the associated charger and supply cabling would be designed for this power level. With a 300kWh HGV battery, this short charging time becomes nonsensical, imposing an 18 Megawatt one minute charging spike on the power network. A short charging time is not necessarily the answer and although seeming like a ‘good idea’, there are power loading disadvantages which are not always being admitted to or explained as part of the ‘sales pitch’ by the battery manufacturers concerned.

But, whatever power source is used or battery technology invented, the main problem will be installing a dedicated high-power distribution infrastructure for a country-wide battery charging network.
There will be no place for so-called ‘austerity’ in this proposed Electric Vehicle future.


3. Other Considerations
However, the main proposal only seems to be considering replacing petrol and diesel cars and vans in the UK as a means of reducing pollution. The world’s transport systems (including the UK) will still require road haulage, air, sea and rail transport and most will still require the use of fossil fuels, either directly or indirectly, with the continuing attendant pollution.
There is also the small problem that, with present-day technology, the increased pollution generated by the extra demand on the country’s electrical generating capacity (for the electric vehicles) that still has to use fossil fuels, may be ‘scoring an own goal’. The extra pollution could possibly be an amount that exceeds the pollution advantage gained by the replacement of petrol and diesel cars and vans.

It should be noted that there is not one Death Certificate giving the cause of death as ‘air pollution’ in the UK (although this may change in the future) when considering the claim that x-number of premature deaths per year are due to this factor (mostly among the elderly and people with breathing problems). The jury is still out on the ‘exact’ figure which ranges from 7,000 to 40,000 plus (in the UK), depending on how the statistics are interpreted. A fact that some politicians and media seem to revel in - they can choose any figure they like for their own purposes.

The vehicle ‘air pollution problem’ seems to be highlighted as a result of human activity in towns, cities and major roads and, perhaps, may be exaggerated by political and business interests using media inspired photographs from cities around the world. These photographs often show pollution in selected cities that reminds one of the days of ‘Smog’ in 1950s UK (when there were approximately a tenth of the number of small vehicles compared to 2016 and about 16 million less population in 1950 than today). The UK ‘Smog’ appeared to be mainly the result of pollution from domestic fossil fuel and biomass burning exacerbated by static weather conditions. Poorly filtered vehicle exhaust particulates and gasses also played a part. It should also be noted that the vehicle emitted gases allegedly responsible for ‘thousands of early deaths’ (nitrogen oxides, etc.) are invisible and do not, by themselves, constitute a ‘Smog’ - indicating, perhaps, that the pollution in the above media photographs may have other causes. In the ‘Smog-laden’ early 1950s, there were hardly any diesel private cars and small vans. Most were petrol driven. A more comprehensive public transport system meant that private vehicle ownership was kept low. Perhaps there is a clue here!

As mentioned above, it should be a matter of urgency to force internal combustion engine manufacturers to reduce these gasses (and particulates) to a safe level by better engine design and corrective technology for existing vehicles. This may be cheaper than installing and constructing electricity generating and charging systems and the associated infrastructure just for the use of electric vehicles - that is, until the fossil fuels run out.

But, notwithstanding the seemingly impractical ‘all electric’ future with respect to power generation, (as far as cars and vans are concerned!), it is still nonetheless desirable that all pollution, from whatever human source or requirement, is reduced by whatever practical means possible.

At the moment there is no ‘standard’ charging connector with countries and car manufacturers designing and implementing their own incompatible connector designs. The recent UK scheme to install charging points in new-build housing and lamp-posts appear to use only one standard style connector. Overseas visitors with their electric vehicle may have a problem. See “Zap Map: Charging Speeds and Connectors”. Here, it would seem, diesel and petrol have the advantage…

With a future increase in electric vehicle usage what steps will be taken to protect non-electric vehicle users during the ‘change-over’ period from rising fuel costs due to the resulting scarcity of conventional filling-stations? And, also, how will Road Tax be collected?

And, for the ‘sting in the tail’, consider the fact that all of the extra electrical energy (and dedicated infrastructure) required for the above electric vehicle scenario is in addition to the increasing electrical energy required for other purposes. These will include heating, lighting, air-conditioning, manufacturing, food production, etc. All of which are necessary to maintain and service an ‘out of control’ world birth rate with ever more local populations of increasing density. At the moment the world population is about 7.5 billion (in 1950 it was 2.5 billion). It is expected to level off at about 11 billion towards the end of this century according to Hans Rosling - TGS.ORG. But only if the human race collectively decides to reproduce at replacement levels or less.

Alan B
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Last edited by Alan B on Aug 04, 2018 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#2  Postby Macdoc » Aug 04, 2018 1:01 am

I think you are way off base and there is no need to "protect" ICE users.

The vehicle batteries themselves are a huge reservoir of available power that users can choose to make available for a reduced rate.
Electric vehicles could save billions on energy storage - Phys.org
https://phys.org › Technology › Energy & Green Tech
May 22, 2018 - Using electric vehicles (EVs) as mobile power storage could eliminate the need to build costly stationary grid storage for energy from ...


You are combining way too many issues....

For instance no ICE vehicle is anywhere close to the efficiency of a modern coal or gas fired power plant ....maybe half.

You are making a huge assumption about the importance of a national grid when multiple local grids and power sources are the more likely evolution,

Going off-grid: How remote towns are taking back the power - CNET
https://www.cnet.com/.../going-off-grid ... wable-en...
May 23, 2018 - Off the grid: How renewable energy is helping remote towns take back .... 280 panels, providing 12 percent of the plant's energy requirements.


You also misjudge vehicle demand ...30% of families in Toronto do not drive or own a vehicle today. Uber etc and especially autonomous vehicles could reduce the number of vehicles to 20% of the current numbers.

If you travel to Copenagen now you will see the future unfolding with very few vehicles and almost none are ICE.

Early transitional is to plug in hybrids with longer and longer EV only ranges for local driving. Even now some are 40 miles or more.

A PHEV’s full-electric range can be little more than a short sprint on some high-powered luxury plug-ins – it’s just 14 miles in the Porsche Cayenne S e-hybrid – but can run as high as 53 miles with the Chevrolet Volt and 97 miles with the BMW i3 REX; the latter use small gasoline engines as “range extenders” to generate electricity that powers their electric motors once the batteries become drained.


https://www.motor1.com/features/230054/ ... n-hybrids/

Heavy transport may unfold faster than personal EVs

JACK STEWART
TRANSPORTATION
11.15.1708:00 AM
TESLA'S ELECTRIC TRUCK IS COMING—AND SO ARE EVERYONE ELSE'S

https://www.wired.com/story/teslas-elec ... one-elses/

Aircraft are moving to EV and hybrid and bio-fuels ..

Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
November 28, 2017 by Deepak Kumar, Stephen P. Long and Vijay Singh Leave a Comment

http://energypost.eu/energycane-a-wonde ... on-sector/
..already a Boeing Dreamliner is more fuel efficient per person than a Prius with four people aboard. Biofuels are tested in jet aircraft and work fine but EV for take off makes huge sense.

The hybrid planes are in prototype already

Image

Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Siemens to develop hybrid plane | Financial ...
https://www.ft.com/content/bc1f2adc-d43 ... 60cb1e5f44
Nov 28, 2017 - Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Siemens have announced plans to collaborate on a hybrid-electric test aircraft that will fly by 2020. The companies ..


The EV world is well on it's way...your objections are by and large misplaced on a number of levels,
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#3  Postby Thommo » Aug 04, 2018 2:47 am

I don't have time to go through the OP with the attention it deserves right now, but I'm bookmarking to come back to this as it seems like an excellent, constructive and thoughtful post.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#4  Postby Macdoc » Aug 04, 2018 5:58 am

It might be thoughtful but it's based on too many dated or incorrect assumptions.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#5  Postby Thommo » Aug 04, 2018 7:03 am

You might be right, and I'm not unsympathetic to the need to move to less environmentally destructive transportation by any means, but nonetheless what little of your facts and Alan's I've checked so far suggest he makes a lot of good points.

If there are things which you think are dated or incorrect I would genuinely like to hear the specifics though, your first response doesn't seem to contain them, beyond an unsourced assertion that vehicle numbers might be reduced by 80%.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#6  Postby Alan B » Aug 04, 2018 9:51 am

Mac, I have no objections to an EV future. What I'm trying to highlight is the amount of additional electrical power that needs to be generated just to charge the batteries and the increase in power required by the "We can charge your battery in 20 minutes" brigade.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#7  Postby The_Metatron » Aug 04, 2018 11:29 pm

Standardized removable battery packs. Drive in, swap out the battery pack, drive out.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#8  Postby Macdoc » Aug 05, 2018 2:30 am

I'm aware of that Alan and you are not correct.

The UK’s National Grid currently has enough energy in its system to support a nation full of EVs, no matter what time of year. What’s lacking is the ability to charge them all simultaneously, which would be a problem if drivers charged their vehicles at the same time in the evening.

One way around unmanageable peak consumption is smart charging, which can vary the rate at which the cars charge, depending on overall demand. But there are still a lot of details to work out, such as what the regulatory mechanism or software would look like, and if this would be better handled at a national or local level.

Ofgem, Britain’s energy regulator, has recently issued its own guidance on this subject, calling for incentives to encourage people to charge their EVs outside of peak hours, which would increase the number of cars currently supportable by the country’s electricity network by 60 per cent. This is very similar to the National Grid’s own opinion, which is that flexible charging would halve the estimated additional generation needed to manage the demand.


this is a good read
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/electri ... ging-point

but again does not take the entire changing picture of power generation into account. UK is likely a more knotty problem and indeed if you get more heat waves you will need to add a/c peaks into the mix as we have to in Ontario.

The advantage with the UK is density so it's a matter of smart handling and turning the growing bank of EVs into an asset to the grid.

from the article

Another technology being researched by automakers, and already used in limited markets by Nissan and Mitsubishi, is vehicle to grid (V2G). Using the same kind of tech that would allow for automated charging, this function lets car owners sell the energy in their batteries to the network when it isn’t in use. This would help balance out the demand on power generation and put it to more efficient use


One thing the article mistates....no one is "caught out" as the software won't allow the car supplying power to go below 60% charge or whatever level the owner of the vehicle decides.

The EV wave is coming but how it play out over the next decade or two is down to management ...not throwing massive power at it.
The UK’s National Grid currently has enough energy in its system to support a nation full of EVs,


exactly.

The other factor not mentioned is the draw merchants have ...especially big box stores to shop and charge.

BP to add electric vehicle charge points at its service stations - Car ...
https://www.carsguide.com.au/.../bp-to- ... s-servic...
Feb 5, 2018 - Fuel company BP is set to offer charge points for electric cars in the ... to fill up your car - they serve as modern-day convenience stores, too.


Porsche dealers to offer Tesla-style fast charging stations for Mission E ...
https://www.afr.com/.../porsche-dealers ... ns-for-m...
Mar 1, 2018 - Porsche plans to equip its 189 US dealerships with 800-volt fast-charging stations in an effort to sell its forthcoming Tesla-fighter, the Mission E ...


Five Ways Retail Stores Can Boost Sales with EV Charging ...
https://www.chargepoint.com › Charging the Future: Our Blog
Feb 13, 2017 - See how EV charging helps retailers build business. ... about who's using their stations and when, giving them new insight into their customers.


Grocery Stores Add EV Charging to Their Basket of Amenities ...
https://www.chargepoint.com › Charging the Future: Our Blog
Mar 17, 2017 - Multiple leading grocery brands are already offering EV charging: Harris ... At ChargePoint, we make it easy for drivers to recommend a station ...


Mobile Charging Stations Keep Retail Consumers Spending Money In ...
https://www.forbes.com/.../mobile-charg ... pending-...
Feb 28, 2017 - In exchange for providing free mobile device charging, retailers gain information about their customers. The charging station doubles as a ...


Met ...I don't think standard batteries are going to fly ...mostly my opinion.

The entire shift to EV will be a slow flood coming in ( tho Norway got caught out at the high uptake ) as the ICE fleet retires and people switch for economic reasons ...not just being tree huggers.

EV cost per mile is CHEAP.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#9  Postby Alan B » Aug 17, 2018 2:55 pm

Macdoc wrote:It might be thoughtful but it's based on too many dated or incorrect assumptions.

List them in detail and in the order they occur and I will do my best to address them.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#10  Postby The_Piper » Aug 17, 2018 3:17 pm

:popcorn: :coffee:
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#11  Postby Scot Dutchy » Aug 17, 2018 5:41 pm

The_Metatron wrote:Standardized removable battery packs. Drive in, swap out the battery pack, drive out.


It was tried in Israel and failed. Standardisation is the problem as it is too socialistic.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#12  Postby Macdoc » Aug 17, 2018 5:52 pm

List them in detail and in the order they occur and I will do my best to address them.


You are making broad conclusions from insufficient or not current data.

Your most glaring is not seeing EV storage as a resource.

I posted a link for you from people that do this for a living stating the UK grid has more than enough power.
You say it hasn't ...

I'll take their word for it. :coffee:
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#13  Postby Scot Dutchy » Aug 17, 2018 5:56 pm

I see your wonder boy broke down.

Tesla shares tumble after CEO Elon Musk breaks down in interview

Electric car entrepreneur said he often needs medication to sleep and admitted friends had become worried about his health
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#14  Postby Macdoc » Aug 17, 2018 5:59 pm

Shows he's human but you of course like to take low shots .... :nono: What the fuck does that have to do with the topic at hand.

••••

Tesla wins contract for another massive battery system with ... - Electrek
https://electrek.co/2018/08/15/tesla-po ... ry-system/
2 days ago - Overall, it is estimated that Tesla's giant battery in Australia reduced the grid service ... They ordered a 25 MW / 52 MWh energy storage system from Tesla to be ...


If you start your analysis on this basis.

There is enough electricity and EV batteries are a resource
This charging space already exists
Image
https://mashable.com/2017/10/03/electri ... 1FYv01Giq1

It will evolve over 20-30 years
https://www.wired.com/story/general-mot ... s-plan-gm/

There will far fewer drivers and even fewer cars.

Private car ownership could drop 80 percent by 2030, new report predicts
Analysts believe the future of city transit will be a network of shared electric cars

https://www.curbed.com/2017/5/4/1554184 ... -ownership

There are cities like Copenhagen that have vanisng few ICE vehicles already.

Cities are banning cars around the world - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/cities- ... ban-2017-8
Jun 1, 2018 - Most recently, Madrid announced that it will bar cars from downtown starting ... Today, over half of Copenhagen's population bikes to work every day, thanks to ...


Countries banning gas cars - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/countri ... rs-2017-10
Oct 23, 2017 - These countries are banning gas-powered vehicles by 2040 ... Cities like Barcelona, Copenhagen, and Vancouver all plan to ban gas- and diesel- powered cars .


It's a double push ...both from the cities AND from the pure economics of EV vehicles ...it's not tree huggers anymore.

Electric Vehicles Have Lowest Total Cost Of Ownership, Study Finds ...

Feb 5, 2018 - Of course, as any EV booster will tell you, the difference in purchase price is often offset by savings on fuel and maintenance, as well as the

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/05/ne ... ownership/

Image

Then there is a discussion basis. :coffee:
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#15  Postby Alan B » Aug 19, 2018 3:58 pm

Macdoc wrote:Your most glaring is not seeing EV storage as a resource.

Of course EV batteries are a resource. That is obvious. But EV batteries are Secondary Cells by design. They can only ever be a Secondary Resource. Never, never a Primary Resource. Without a sufficient primary source of electrical power to charge these Secondary Cell EV batteries they are just useless ballast.

I posted a link for you from people that do this for a living stating the UK grid has more than enough power.
You say it hasn't ...

I'll take their word for it. :coffee:

Try this:
Gridwatch
The left-hand column gives the total actual UK power consumed for defined periods. The yearly consumption during winter is just under 45GW peak. The meter at the top of that column has a note, part of which reads:
"The amber warning represents the demand level that cannot be reliably met by wood or fossil burning and nuclear generation, but must be augmented by imports or unreliable intermittent 'renewable energy'."

The 'amber warning' starts at 45GW. (This is before we have any EVs to contend with).

If the UK National Grid has ample reserve to satisfy the EV future as envisioned by some people, then why are we building a 3.26GW nuclear fission power plant which will only provide sufficient power to charge about half a million 30kWh EV batteries (at a five hour charge rate)?

My article was about providing sufficient UK PRIMARY power to satisfy a future demand that would include EVs. Secondary power resources (and that includes EV batteries) are irrelevant since they depend 100% on the existence a primary power source for their operation. The article was NOT about the pros & cons of EVs or what is going on in other countries. Please read the last sentence in the third paragraph.

On 'Gridwatch' (linked above) there is a 'Notes' section in which there is this comment:
"Two potentially flawed assumptions were rapidly arrived at with respect to renewable energy.

That its wide scale deployment would have no ongoing costs in social, economic or emissions beyond the plant installation and maintenance itself - that is, the social, environmental and extraneous costs of managing its output and deployment could be ignored.
That every unit of electricity generated by it would lead directly to an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel usage.

These crystallise down to an understanding of the energy density of renewable energy - essentially how big the energy generating plant has to be to contribute anything worthwhile, and intermittency - that is the tendency of the wind, tides, waves and sunlight to not be there in a steady state all the time. The best place for further facts on energy density is David Mackay's webs site (and book) Renewable Energy - without the hot air, and intermittency and for and in-depth discussion on the impact of intermittency this paper."
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#16  Postby Scot Dutchy » Aug 19, 2018 4:21 pm

Alan what happens when the bottom right meter (EU supplies) reads zero?
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#17  Postby Alan B » Aug 19, 2018 4:57 pm

Do you mean the French, Dutch, Irish & EW yearly chart? There doesn't seem to be an 'EU' meter.
Things could start shutting down, I would guess, Scot. :scratch:
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#18  Postby Scot Dutchy » Aug 19, 2018 9:28 pm

You like us Alan we spread the load around.
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#19  Postby Macdoc » Aug 20, 2018 2:17 am

You are building lots of primary sources in wind and some tide tho perhaps not solar.
I consider pursuing new nuclear at this point in time a foolish waste of money. Why your government does not is beyond me tho a case can be made if there is already a nuclear facility in place.

A key aspect of renewables is being able to store excess power which the EV batteries represent. You have the best wind power in Europe

Wind power in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_powe ... ed_Kingdom
The United Kingdom is one of the best locations for wind power in the world and is considered to be the best in Europe. Wind power contributed 15% of UK electricity generation in 2017 and 18.5% ..... 1.8 GW of new wind power capacity was brought online during 2012, a 30% increase of the total UK installed capacity .

and the turbines get more powerful and now do not even need a traditional shallow water foundation
https://xray-mag.com/content/worlds-fir ... perational

And you don't once mention the projected drop in vehicles....you continue to think business as usual with regards to vehicles. and it certainly will not be.
Already London is restricting access to vehicles for a variety of reasons.

The sale of diesel and petrol cars is to be outlawed in the UK from 2040. But only 10 days ago Oxford announced that it is set to be the first British city to ban all petrol and diesel cars and vans – from a handful of central streets by 2020, extending to the entire urban centre 10 years later. Paris will ban all non-electric cars by 2030, and is now in the habit of announcing car-free days on which drivers have to stay out of its historic heart. In the French city of Lyon, car numbers have fallen by 20% since 2005, and the authorities have their sights set on another drop of the same magnitude. London, meanwhile, has shredded the idea that rising prosperity always triggers rising car use, and seen a 25% fall in the share of journeys made by car since 1990.


this is a good read about the disruption coming....actually in progress....I was shocked that even a sprawling very car oriented city like Toronto 30% of families did not own a car.

Are you going to sweat about a sector where the demand for electricity is already dropping???

UK electricity use falls – as rest of EU rises | Business | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... my-weath...
Jan 30, 2018 - But an analysis of official figures by campaign group Sandbag found the fall between ... Overall, electricity demand has fallen by 9% in the UK in the past seven years .


This drop is the same in the US and other countries

snip

Changing the utility industry is like steering a ship with a canoe paddle. It takes a long, long time to notice any alteration in course. But change is happening and, as usual, it is because of economics. Quartz sums it up this way: “In a world of falling electricity demand, utilities can now take billions of dollars in the transportation sector away from the fossil fuel industry. Politics, technology and economics are aligning to help them do that. ‘[Utilities] all want to eat the oil industry’s lunch,” says Max Baumhefner of the environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council. “So we’re happy to show them the way to the buffet’.”


https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/02/as ... save-them/

All these factors are going crest over the next decade

The grid itself is an endangered species as electricity production decentralizes.

Today’s stories of electricity system transformation – dominated with new renewable and distributed generation and the rise of smart grids, peer-to-peer trading, battery storage and demand response programmes – are dramatic enough. Sometimes it’s hard to keep up with developments. So how about a view from the future?
In the UK, consultant Arup has released its Energy systems: A view from 2035 report, which suggests that all these trends towards a smarter, decentralized energy system will continue. Electricity is (by 2035) low carbon and local, says Arup, with many consumers no longer relying on the grid; and the UK is a nation of energy (self) producers, with small-scale generation at the distribution level and ‘behind the meter’ providing nearly half the country’s generation.
Decentralized energy producers
As trade association Energy UK’s Lawrence Slade points out in his (2108) foreword to the report, these are the likely results of ‘the next few decades [being] among the most transformative the energy sector has ever seen.’ Looking to the past for the moment, Slade cites dramatic examples of change that had already taken place – carbon emissions from UK energy supply having fallen by 57% since 1990; and low carbon generation rising from 19% to 53% of total UK power in a decade.
The 2035 report continues – demand-side response and batteries are widespread in commercial and residential properties; while industrial parks, universities etc operate their own microgrids, though usually retaining a connection to the national grid.


https://www.decentralized-energy.com/ar ... uture.html

and

https://innovateuk.blog.gov.uk/2018/03/ ... of-energy/

Norway alone has enough pumped hydro to serve as the battery for all of Europe and the UK ...and those 400 kv lines are expanding.

National Grid begins UK transmission link with Europe
05/04/2018 By Rod Walton
Senior Editor


https://www.elp.com/articles/2018/05/na ... urope.html

The upcoming decade is an ongoing fright night scenario for power producers in the first world nations.

Interesting times :coffee:
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Re: Universal Electric Cars & Vans - the Implications

#20  Postby Alan B » Aug 20, 2018 10:02 am

Macdoc wrote:You are building lots of primary sources in wind and some tide tho perhaps not solar.
I consider pursuing new nuclear at this point in time a foolish waste of money. Why your government does not is beyond me tho a case can be made if there is already a nuclear facility in place.

A key aspect of renewables is being able to store excess power which the EV batteries represent. You have the best wind power in Europe
I quite agree. I don't see the point of this proposed nuclear plant except as a money-making exercise for a few 'brown-nosing' politicians.

And you don't once mention the projected drop in vehicles....you continue to think business as usual with regards to vehicles. and it certainly will not be.
Correct. I used the actual figures, not a projected guesswork figure which may turn out to be way off the mark. Using the actual figures allows one to make a more accurate adjustment when the 'projected' figures are realised (if ever :snooty: ). But, changing technology, which may not even be on the horizon yet, could change all of this. :dunno:
Already London is restricting access to vehicles for a variety of reasons.
That is only possible because London has a quite efficient public transport system - if you ignore the railways... :whistle: Try doing this where there is little or no public transport in place.

The sale of diesel and petrol cars is to be outlawed in the UK from 2040. But only 10 days ago Oxford announced that it is set to be the first British city to ban all petrol and diesel cars and vans – from a handful of central streets by 2020, extending to the entire urban centre 10 years later. Paris will ban all non-electric cars by 2030, and is now in the habit of announcing car-free days on which drivers have to stay out of its historic heart. In the French city of Lyon, car numbers have fallen by 20% since 2005, and the authorities have their sights set on another drop of the same magnitude. London, meanwhile, has shredded the idea that rising prosperity always triggers rising car use, and seen a 25% fall in the share of journeys made by car since 1990.
Yes, Something must be done to reduce the pollution in 'enclosed' areas where there is little or no wind to act as a dispersant.

UK electricity use falls – as rest of EU rises | Business | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... my-weath...
Jan 30, 2018 - But an analysis of official figures by campaign group Sandbag found the fall between ... Overall, electricity demand has fallen by 9% in the UK in the past seven years .
That is at present. With the increasing demand of EVs, will this perceived drop be reversed in an 'all EV' future?

Changing the utility industry is like steering a ship with a canoe paddle. It takes a long, long time to notice any alteration in course. But change is happening and, as usual, it is because of economics. Quartz sums it up this way: “In a world of falling electricity demand, utilities can now take billions of dollars in the transportation sector away from the fossil fuel industry. Politics, technology and economics are aligning to help them do that. ‘[Utilities] all want to eat the oil industry’s lunch,” says Max Baumhefner of the environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council. “So we’re happy to show them the way to the buffet’.”


https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/02/as ... save-them/

All these factors are going crest over the next decade

The grid itself is an endangered species as electricity production decentralizes.

Today’s stories of electricity system transformation – dominated with new renewable and distributed generation and the rise of smart grids, peer-to-peer trading, battery storage and demand response programmes – are dramatic enough. Sometimes it’s hard to keep up with developments. So how about a view from the future?
In the UK, consultant Arup has released its Energy systems: A view from 2035 report, which suggests that all these trends towards a smarter, decentralized energy system will continue. Electricity is (by 2035) low carbon and local, says Arup, with many consumers no longer relying on the grid; and the UK is a nation of energy (self) producers, with small-scale generation at the distribution level and ‘behind the meter’ providing nearly half the country’s generation.
Decentralized energy producers
As trade association Energy UK’s Lawrence Slade points out in his (2108) foreword to the report, these are the likely results of ‘the next few decades [being] among the most transformative the energy sector has ever seen.’ Looking to the past for the moment, Slade cites dramatic examples of change that had already taken place – carbon emissions from UK energy supply having fallen by 57% since 1990; and low carbon generation rising from 19% to 53% of total UK power in a decade.
The 2035 report continues – demand-side response and batteries are widespread in commercial and residential properties; while industrial parks, universities etc operate their own microgrids, though usually retaining a connection to the national grid.


https://www.decentralized-energy.com/ar ... uture.html

and

https://innovateuk.blog.gov.uk/2018/03/ ... of-energy/

Norway alone has enough pumped hydro to serve as the battery for all of Europe and the UK ...and those 400 kv lines are expanding.

National Grid begins UK transmission link with Europe
05/04/2018 By Rod Walton
Senior Editor


https://www.elp.com/articles/2018/05/na ... urope.html

The upcoming decade is an ongoing fright night scenario for power producers in the first world nations.

Interesting times :coffee:
Definitely!
But, I suspect at my age, I won't be around...

Edit. In the Gridwatch program, (which updates in real time every five minutes), the wind contribution is only 0.41%. So much for the UK being a very 'windy' place.
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