I'm curious to hear other skeptics' thoughts and advice on something. Most of what I know about the world suggests to me that it's unlikely there are any gods or other supernatural beings who intervene in our world, but of course I'm open to changing my mind with sufficient evidence. One of the few things that makes me wonder is Joan of Arc and the predictions she apparently made that came true, as described under "Jehanne's Prophecies" at http://www.stjoan-center.com/topics/jgrundy.html and under "Other Prophocies" at http://saint-joan-of-arc.com/prophecies.htm.

I'm particularly puzzled about her predicting she'd be captured by midsummer day (June 24) of the next year which came true when she was captured in next year's May and her accurate prediction of getting the Dauphin crowned in the coming summer. Does anyone have any guesses for non-supernatural ways she could have predicted these things? If we couldn't think of a way, do you think it'd be rational to consider a supernatural explanation, or just to conclude that there's probably a natural one that we haven't figured out?

People can make intelligent guesses or predictions based on the knowledge available to them. Some work, some don't. It depends how clever (or even 'lucky') a person is. JOA was obviously not a stupid person but even such a person as she, could make unwise decisions.
People down the ages have used the idea of a God (or gods) to justify their actions to the gullible populace thereby invoking something 'supernatural'. And when a predicted 'something' happens, the gullible will say 'Goddit'.
The only rational part is that of the perpetrator who decides to use a fictional 'supernatural deity' to further their own ends.

ambivalentskeptic wrote:I'm particularly puzzled about her predicting she'd be captured by midsummer day (June 24) of the next year which came true when she was captured in next year's May and her accurate prediction of getting the Dauphin crowned in the coming summer. Does anyone have any guesses for non-supernatural ways she could have predicted these things?

Jehanne d'Arc had hundreds of visions. If I were to wonder about intervention of some putative supernatural power I'd be more inclined to suspect interference if not a single one of them turned out to come true.

By the way, what is an "ambivalentskeptic"? Is that someone who is always a sceptic, except when he is not? Asking because I have a vision of you as a believer in the existence of some supernatural power who pretends to be a sceptic.

Yeah. I forgot about the 'hundreds of visions'. If even one of then came true, it would be case of 'Goddit' as far as the locals were concerned.

I'm particularly puzzled about her predicting she'd be captured by midsummer day (June 24) of the next year which came true when she was captured in next year's May

So she predicted something not at all unlikely would happen within a year or so and it did.
Doesn't sound like compelling evidence for the supernatural to me, in fact I wouldn't even go so far as to say it was puzzling at all.

If I predicted that my 4 year old car would break down within a year or so, would that be more or less likely than her capture, and what supernatural agency would be more believable to you if it did break down with only a month to go?

I predict a riot.

Yes, but could Joan Of Arc choke a Jock with her thighs?

In what year between 1412 and 1431 was the summer solstice on June 24th?

I'm aware that a pope (Gregory) shifted the calendar 10 days forwards in 1582 but the drift of 0.0075 days per year for 150-odd years only gets 1-ish more day to account for.

Midsummer's day is not on the same day as the summer solstice. Indeed, midsummer's day this year was on June 24th.

In England, Midsummer Day falls on Sunday June 24, 2018, the feast of St John the Baptist.

I was unaware that Midsummer was a product of religious insanity. My bad.
Still, the Gregorian shift will have knackered that too, wouldn't it?

newolder wrote:

In England, Midsummer Day falls on Sunday June 24, 2018, the feast of St John the Baptist.

I was unaware that Midsummer was a product of religious insanity. My bad.
Still, the Gregorian shift will have knackered that too, wouldn't it?

Yes, though I'm assuming that historians probably use today's correct dates when referencing events prior to the 16th century calendar changes?

Well here we are in October (8-ber) and it's the 10th month of 2018. Time for a new calendar with some logic (i.e. none of the various gods) behind it, maybe?

newolder wrote:Well here we are in October (8-ber) and it's the 10th month of 2018. Time for a new calendar with some logic (i.e. none of the various gods) behind it, maybe?

Well, I'm not arsed so be my guest.

eta: though think of all the astrologers that you'll put out of a job.

There are more bonuses than I first imagined.

Now I know how Joan of Arc felt as the flames rose to her roman nose and her Walkman started to melt.

Yes, I've heard tell that folk sometimes ask, "What's that smell?" as they fade away... I'll retire to may cot for tea & caek, now. Wake me up on the 5th of Sliptember, the Oleth of Arg. ZZzzzz...

Oooo that smell. Can't you smell that smell? Oooo that smell. The smell that surrounds youuuuuuu.

zulumoose wrote:So she predicted something not at all unlikely would happen within a year or so and it did.
Doesn't sound like compelling evidence for the supernatural to me, in fact I wouldn't even go so far as to say it was puzzling at all.

If I predicted that my 4 year old car would break down within a year or so, would that be more or less likely than her capture, and what supernatural agency would be more believable to you if it did break down with only a month to go?

Yeah, that was my thought to. I was puzzled because I had serious doubts about my own judgement, so I wanted to double-check if that thought made sense to other people. What do you make of her accurately predicting how soon she’d get the Dauphin crowned?

BlackBart wrote:Yes, but could Joan Of Arc choke a Jock with her thighs?

laklak wrote:Oooo that smell. Can't you smell that smell? Oooo that smell. The smell that surrounds youuuuuuu.

Huh? Are these references to something I’m not familiar with?

Fallible wrote:Now I know how Joan of Arc felt as the flames rose to her roman nose and her Walkman started to melt.

How?

Hermit wrote:Jehanne d'Arc had hundreds of visions. If I were to wonder about intervention of some putative supernatural power I'd be more inclined to suspect interference if not a single one of them turned out to come true.

Huh, I hadn't thought of it that way. Interesting.

Hermit wrote:By the way, what is an "ambivalentskeptic"? Is that someone who is always a sceptic, except when he is not? Asking because I have a vision of you as a believer in the existence of some supernatural power who pretends to be a sceptic.

Uh.....a skeptic who's ambivalent about whether he's good at being a skeptic? A skeptic who's ambivalent about whether the conclusions he's drawn are rational? A skeptic who's ambivalent about whether he should be a skeptic? I don't think I was giving the name much thought when I picked it beyond "what sounds distinctive enough that I'll remember it?"

ambivalentskeptic wrote:I was puzzled because I had serious doubts about my own judgement, so I wanted to double-check if that thought made sense to other people. What do you make of her accurately predicting how soon she’d get the Dauphin crowned?

ambivalentskeptic wrote:

BlackBart wrote:Yes, but could Joan Of Arc choke a Jock with her thighs?

laklak wrote:Oooo that smell. Can't you smell that smell? Oooo that smell. The smell that surrounds youuuuuuu.

Huh? Are these references to something I’m not familiar with?

You self-evidently have access to the internet. Think of the sheer power that lies at your fingertips. My pet theory is that it was those thighs that led to the downfall of Joan of Arc. There's enough research for you to explore to last you a lifetime. Don't let all that ambivalence get in your way.

ambivalentskeptic wrote:

Fallible wrote:Now I know how Joan of Arc felt as the flames rose to her roman nose and her Walkman started to melt.

How?

Bigmouth strikes again...