Afghanistan

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Afghanistan

#1  Postby Tortured_Genius » Aug 15, 2021 11:36 pm

I'm a bit surprised there isn't a thread about this already.

Pretty obviously the situation there is a clusterfuck of monumental proportions - it's being compared to the Suez Crisis for the UK and the fall of Saigon for the US.

Equally obviously the Taliban will take the country back to the 14th Century, despite protestations to the contrary, and will become a new rallying point for what remains of IS and similar abrahamic death cultists.

Anyone got a take on the likely fallout from this?

(I personally haven't a clue, but am interested in others, particularly US, perspectives).
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Re: Afghanistan

#2  Postby Basset Hound » Aug 16, 2021 2:32 am

I look for a flood of Afghan 'refugees' in European countries. After they cash a few weffacheks they'll want their new country to be like Afghanistan. Also the rape rate will soar.
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Re: Afghanistan

#3  Postby Spearthrower » Aug 16, 2021 3:47 am

Tortured_Genius wrote:
Anyone got a take on the likely fallout from this? .


Mostly "fuck".

Not at all unexpected, but still disturbing to watch.
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Re: Afghanistan

#4  Postby Spearthrower » Aug 16, 2021 3:48 am

Basset Hound wrote:I look for a flood of Afghan 'refugees' in European countries. After they cash a few weffacheks they'll want their new country to be like Afghanistan. Also the rape rate will soar.


So some kind of xenophobic fiction then.
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Re: Afghanistan

#5  Postby don't get me started » Aug 16, 2021 4:53 am

Definitely some confusion on how to react in some corners of the interwebs. The disgust with western meddling sits uneasily beside disgust with the Taliban and their vile ideology.

Do something? All stick and nary a hint of carrot seems to be the only way to deal with the Taliban.
Do nothing? Abandon the people of Afghanistan to their fate, and a pretty unpleasant fate it is at that.

Then it all gets swept up in a witches' brew of finger pointing and blaming and recrimination-

It's Biden's fault for pulling out too precipitously. No, he only followed on from Trump who promised a withdrawal and emboldened the Taliban to engage in bogus peace talks while plotting this all along. No, it was the previous administrations who deludes themselves into thinking this country could be made into a facsimile of a 21st century western democracy. No, it's the Pakistanis and Saudis who fund and support this Islamist lunacy. No, it's the fault of the Americans for supporting and funding the Mujahadeen against the Soviets in the 1980's. No, it's the fault of the Soviets for invading in 1979. No, it's the fault of the great powers who drew the boundaries to suit their own purposes in The Great Game of the 19th century. No, it's the fault of the Muslim expansion that destroyed Buddhist culture that held sway there centuries ago....et cetera, et cetara, and so on and so forth.

Whatever comes next, I'm sure it will be unpleasant for all concerned.
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Re: Afghanistan

#6  Postby Hermit » Aug 16, 2021 4:58 am

"America sent you on a mission to remove a grave threat and to liberate an oppressed people, and that mission has been accomplished." George W. Bush, message to the troops in Afghanistan on June 5, 2003.

Prez Bush's announcement was premature.

Image

At least the US had not funded the army that finished up driving them out of the country on the previous occasion. The Mujahideen, which morphed into the Taliban, was funded, armed and supported in other ways by several western nations, but chiefly by the US.

"Operation Cyclone was the code name for the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) program to arm and finance the Afghan mujahideen in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, prior to and during the military intervention by the USSR in support of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan."
"Operation Cyclone was one of the longest and most expensive covert CIA operations ever undertaken. Funding officially began with $695,000 in 1979, was increased dramatically to $20–$30 million per year in 1980, and rose to $630 million per year in 1987, described as the "biggest bequest to any Third World insurgency"."

"In total, the combined U.S., Saudi, and Chinese aid to the mujahideen is valued at between $6–12 billion."

"The program funding was increased yearly due to lobbying by prominent U.S. politicians and government officials, such as Charles Wilson, Gordon Humphrey, Fred Ikle, and William Casey. Under the Reagan administration, U.S. support for the Afghan mujahideen evolved into a centerpiece of U.S. foreign policy, called the Reagan Doctrine, in which the U.S. provided military and other support to anti-communist resistance movements in Afghanistan, Angola, and Nicaragua."

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Reagan sitting with people from the Afghanistan-Pakistan region in February 1983

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone
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Re: Afghanistan

#7  Postby Spearthrower » Aug 16, 2021 7:36 am

don't get me started wrote:
It's Biden's fault for pulling out too precipitously. No, he only followed on from Trump who promised a withdrawal and emboldened the Taliban to engage in bogus peace talks while plotting this all along. No, it was the previous administrations who deludes themselves into thinking this country could be made into a facsimile of a 21st century western democracy. No, it's the Pakistanis and Saudis who fund and support this Islamist lunacy. No, it's the fault of the Americans for supporting and funding the Mujahadeen against the Soviets in the 1980's. No, it's the fault of the Soviets for invading in 1979. No, it's the fault of the great powers who drew the boundaries to suit their own purposes in The Great Game of the 19th century. No, it's the fault of the Muslim expansion that destroyed Buddhist culture that held sway there centuries ago....et cetera, et cetara, and so on and so forth.


Plausible solutions are no less complex and confounding than the apportioning of blame.

How long before a revanchist Taliban seeks to revenge themselves on Western imperial forces and generate similar cases for war for future generations?
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Re: Afghanistan

#8  Postby The Serpent » Aug 16, 2021 9:04 am

The post 1979 Afghanistan was merely a latter day Potemkin. None of this should surprise even the dullest of of observers.
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Re: Afghanistan

#9  Postby chairman bill » Aug 16, 2021 9:26 am

An awful situation with complex causes & no easy solutions, but some clear issues to address ...

Saudi Arabia is the root of the Wahhabi infection, but they've got oil and stand as a bulwark against Iran, so though they be medievalist bastards, they're our medievalist bastards.

Pakistan is the root of Taliban interference in Afghanistan. Most of the Talibs are not Afghans & they enter mainly via Pakistan, where they are armed and trained. Though Pakistan is an Islamofascist shithole, it has nuclear weapons and so is our Islamofascist shithole.

Defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan was never going to be the same as defeating the Taliban, 'cos most were in Pakistan. Obviously, they've now invaded again. The West could drive them out, but they'd just race away to Pakistan and wait for another opportunity.

I see only one workable solution - sanctions against Pakistan and Saudi Arabia until they sort their shit out. Meanwhile, as the Taliban leadership are all together in the Presidential Palace in Kabul, bomb the shit out of it. Quick.
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Re: Afghanistan

#10  Postby Tortured_Genius » Aug 16, 2021 10:25 am

Usual excellent analysis by Beau of the Fifth Column:



Unfortunately he's completely correct to my mind - the mistakes were made 18-20 years ago and there is no going back. Going forward, just learn the lessons and don't do it again.

But crap, that sucks hard for the people of the region who aren't religious crazies.
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Re: Afghanistan

#11  Postby Hermit » Aug 16, 2021 10:37 am

I agree with your post except for this:
chairman bill wrote:Most of the Talibs are not Afghans

Most of them were. When the Russians basically turned to genocide six million Afghan women and children flew the country - mostly to Pakistan - leaving the men behind to defend the country. The boys among the refugees were turned into Taliban, and they took Afghanistan over when they returned.

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Re: Afghanistan

#12  Postby don't get me started » Aug 16, 2021 11:15 am

Hermit wrote:I agree with your post except for this:
chairman bill wrote:Most of the Talibs are not Afghans

Most of them were. When the Russians basically turned to genocide six million Afghan women and children flew the country - mostly to Pakistan - leaving the men behind to defend the country. The boys among the refugees were turned into Taliban, and they took Afghanistan over when they returned.



There is also the consideration that our western concept of nation state identity might not mean all that much to some of these people. Tribal affiliations span across borders and align with complex and age-tested relations of clan fealty and religious belonging.
What goes on in the tribal heartlands may only sometimes be connected to decisions made in Islamabad and Kabul (and further afield).

I grew up in a place in the UK (The Anglo-Scottish borders) that were similar in the early modern period to the tribal areas of Afghanistan. Although the Scottish and English crowns often tried to use the Reivers as proxy militias against the other side, it didn't always go as planned and one frustrated Elizabethan commented on the great raiding clans that 'They are English at their leisure and Scottish when they will.' The area was a dangerous and unstable zone of robbery, murder, feuds and general lawlessness.

The conservative MP Rory Stuart made an explicit link between the world of the Border Reivers and modern Afghanistan in his book ' The Marches.' (He also wrote a book on his foot travel across Afghanistan.. The Places in Between , which I haven't read yet.)
The machinations of powerful outsiders combined with a harsh landscape, and a centuries old system of tribal affiliation and a warrior, raiding culture is the common thread of his analysis of the two regions. I'm not saying I fully agree with everything he said, but I thought it was an interesting take on history.

The notion that the West could impose a modern, democratic nation state here is as fanciful, it seems, as the notion that the Taliban will be able to maintain peace between the rival clans and warlords of the area.
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Re: Afghanistan

#13  Postby Agi Hammerthief » Aug 16, 2021 2:28 pm

German newspaper reports China wants friendly relations with the Taliban.

:popcorn:
* my (modified) emphasis ( or 'interpretation' )

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Re: Afghanistan

#14  Postby The_Metatron » Aug 16, 2021 2:29 pm

Seems to me, a retired American military fellow, this is now the third time our country has failed to learn the same lesson about nation building. Korea, Vietnam, now Afghanistan.

Also seems to me, the Afghans have shown their mettle. As I write this, the going price for Afghans to abandon their posts and join the taliban is a hundred and fifty bucks. That's what they're taking to simply surrender their country. The Rus are reporting the Afghan president bugged out with a few cars and a helicopter stuffed with cash.

The enemy of our enemy has proven to be a poor friend.
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Re: Afghanistan

#15  Postby Tortured_Genius » Aug 16, 2021 2:40 pm

Agi Hammerthief wrote:German newspaper reports China wants friendly relations with the Taliban.

:popcorn:


Aye, and the Russian Embassy is still fully manned.
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Re: Afghanistan

#16  Postby aliihsanasl » Aug 16, 2021 4:21 pm

Did you see the falling people from US plane?

https://twitter.com/AsvakaNews/status/1 ... 0054515730

A few days ago Erdoğan said "we're taking care of 4 million refugees (actually they arent refugees, they're uncontrolled immigrants and number is far more than that) for the order and comfort of Europe." Probably nothing cost that much voter lost in all his political life. An early election is imminent, for the first time Erdoğan's votes below opposition in all polls and every opposition party promising to kick away immigrants.

On the highways trucks opening their doors and tens of people running into cities, its total chaos. I wont talk about theft and sexual assault. A few times locals attacked immigrants' streets and pogroms happened.

Just one truck carrying around 200 people take a look at this and this is daily routine, this turned into business of some people because officials let them.


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Re: Afghanistan

#17  Postby Keep It Real » Aug 16, 2021 5:41 pm

The Taliban and, in fact, all forms of Islamic extremism/fundamentalism/oppression of women is due to polygamy and the resultant terror of cuckoldry, largely due to classical psychological projection, in the bio-monkey brain.

Read all about it in "The Thread of Awesomeness."

By means of a (further) therapeutic effort I'll quote a grime lyric: "Good girls ain't rare, that's just an excuse, rudeboy your insecure you're insecure you're insecure..."

As usual, predictably enough, sex/reproduction/the biological condition is the cause of the alpha and omega. Good old Sigmund.
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Re: Afghanistan

#18  Postby Animavore » Aug 16, 2021 9:51 pm

GOP Quietly Scrubs Webpage Detailing Trump's 'Historic Peace Agreement With the Taliban'

https://gizmodo.com/gop-quietly-scrubs- ... a5G44KnmGM
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Re: Afghanistan

#19  Postby Matt_B » Aug 16, 2021 10:28 pm

Animavore wrote:
GOP Quietly Scrubs Webpage Detailing Trump's 'Historic Peace Agreement With the Taliban'

https://gizmodo.com/gop-quietly-scrubs- ... a5G44KnmGM


I was wondering if the same would apply to gop.com pages about Trump's North Korea deal, and yup. They all seem dead too:

https://www.gop.com/topic/national-defense-north-korea/
https://www.gop.com/progress-towards-pe ... nting-rsr/
https://gop.com/trumps-historic-summit- ... lures-rsr/
https://www.gop.com/trumps-tough-on-nor ... rking-rsr/
https://www.gop.com/the-art-of-the-nucl ... ummit-rsr/

Straight down the memory hole, I presume. Would anyone care to check up on his other foreign policy gaffes?
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Re: Afghanistan

#20  Postby Animavore » Aug 16, 2021 10:59 pm

I find it weird the Republicans are trying to frame this as a failure for Biden rather than a win for Trump. I mean this is exactly what they wanted under Trump. This is what his supporters claimed they wanted. US troops out. Why aren't they happy? Why aren't they actually praising Biden for not going against Trump?
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