Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#10141  Postby Spearthrower » Dec 15, 2019 5:36 am

jamest wrote:
Spinozasgalt wrote:
jamest wrote:
Spinozasgalt wrote:
Wow.

It's the truth that soooo many members here have been shafted for being opposed to the status quo mindset. That you say 'wow' to that means that you've probably spent more time than I imagined in front of that full-length mirror of yours.

You know full well you just likened people criticising you on the internet to the KKK. And you compared yourself being criticised to people of colour being shot by hooded racists. That's disgusting.

And on top of that, it's just another glaring instance of hypocrisy on your part. Some of us remember you complaining that Thommo had called you a rightwing extremist or worse simply because he mentioned your use of the phrase "final social revolution" and its affinity to a more problematic phrase that had been in the news at the time. Yet here you are comparing people to the KKK. What a sad joke.

It's what's called a metaphor, which is what you use when people such as you persist in claiming that my situation here is similar to that of Scotland being a member of the UK, which is the biggest load of bollocks I've heard in this thread. So, adorn your make-up and high-heels and just stay looking in the mirror, because I'd much rather listen to someone with some intelligence talking bollocks such as Thommo, than yourself, who doesn't appear to have any.

ETA: that's another gripe of mine about Western socialism: people always ready to turn the words of another into some sort of homophobic agenda against socialism. If you want to know what my version of 'disgusting' is, then add that to your fucking dictionary.



And again, you're just exposing yourself as being a drone. This has nothing to do with socialism, western or otherwise... it's just the age-old in-group, out-group demonisation where you take your bucket list of things you hate and then stick the opposition's label onto it.

The choice of the metaphor is what's disturbing... just like when you use entirely unnecessary violent metaphors for other things. Metaphors are actually used to help give clarity to an idea by likening it to something else. You didn't actually help explain anything; your motivation was clearly to paint your opponents as disgusting human beings. This is all completely standard for your jamest - you've been doing it to everyone for years, and that's why people treat you like a cunt - not because of the flaccid ill-conceived contents of what you would laughably call your 'position'.
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Re: Brexit

#10142  Postby Spearthrower » Dec 15, 2019 5:37 am

SafeAsMilk wrote:
So then it must also be your opinion that the EU should have a say as to whether you can leave or not, right?


Response: fuck off goose!
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Re: Brexit

#10143  Postby Spinozasgalt » Dec 15, 2019 5:45 am

jamest wrote:
Spinozasgalt wrote:
jamest wrote:
Spinozasgalt wrote:
Wow.

It's the truth that soooo many members here have been shafted for being opposed to the status quo mindset. That you say 'wow' to that means that you've probably spent more time than I imagined in front of that full-length mirror of yours.

You know full well you just likened people criticising you on the internet to the KKK. And you compared yourself being criticised to people of colour being shot by hooded racists. That's disgusting.

And on top of that, it's just another glaring instance of hypocrisy on your part. Some of us remember you complaining that Thommo had called you a rightwing extremist or worse simply because he mentioned your use of the phrase "final social revolution" and its affinity to a more problematic phrase that had been in the news at the time. Yet here you are comparing people to the KKK. What a sad joke.

It's what's called a metaphor, which is what you use when people such as you persist in claiming that my situation here is similar to that of Scotland being a member of the UK, which is the biggest load of bollocks I've heard in this thread. So, adorn your make-up and high-heels and just stay looking in the mirror, because I'd much rather listen to someone with some intelligence talking bollocks such as Thommo, than yourself, who doesn't appear to have any.

Ahhh, the "full-length mirror" jibe was more of that classic homophobia on your part. I thought so.

Image

We all know what a metaphor is, of course. But you've got the order of things wrong. The use of a metaphor is precisely what got you into this mess. I used the one you made to tease out the general principle you were appealing to (which you've gone on to confirm in subsequent posts) and then applied said metaphor, and thus that principle, to your situation here. And because it's so broadly applicable, it turns out it gives you the perverse result of putting yourself at the mercy of the majority of the membership. Rather than even attempt a defense or to amend the principle, you've squirmed and called bollocks. That's as weak a rejoinder as they come.

I do have to shake my head at the "It was a metaphor! I compared you to murderous racists as a metaphor!" moment in the above though.

jamest wrote:ETA: that's another gripe of mine about Western socialism: people always ready to turn the words of another into some sort of homophobic agenda against socialism. If you want to know what my version of 'disgusting' is, then add that to your fucking dictionary.

It's fine. I don't think I need to tie your homophobia to socialism to call it out.
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Re: Brexit

#10144  Postby Cito di Pense » Dec 15, 2019 5:54 am

It's OK, jamest. Now you have a Fearless Leader, Burrito Johnsonini, to lead the nation back to unity. Watch out, though. It could lead from fasces to feces in one or two short years.
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Re: Brexit

#10145  Postby jamest » Dec 15, 2019 5:55 am

Spearthrower wrote:
jamest wrote:... the notion that the NHS is not going to exist nor that you will not have access to medical care after The Conservatives won on Thursday/Friday, is utterly ludicrous. I mean, you might be forgetting this but we've already had 9 years of a Tory government in a financially crippled Britain/World.


:what:

The NHS has been crippled by the last 9 years of Tory government!

No, it's been crippled by a Tory government that inherited debt to levels that have almost made this country bankrupt. Or do you think that the Conservatives imposed austerity upon its people for a laugh?

It's a bit like waking up yourself and realising that you're thousands of pounds/dollars in debt and can no longer afford to pay the interest. What do you do? You make severe cuts in your own spending. At least, that's what most reasonable people do.

What's wrong here is that most people don't seem to appreciate that such principles extend to governments and that money - even for them - doesn't grow on trees. Of course, where you've got a situation in which the welfare state cannot cope and yet millions of Europeans are allowed to enter the country and put a stress on the whole infrastructure, of course you're going to notice a diminishing quality of service right across the board.

Regardless, the people here expect the government of the UK to pluck cash out of its ass and pay for top quality services across the board, even when no such cash is at hand. It's like you realising that you're skint and having to make cuts, and your children moaning about the diminishing quality of their Xmas and birthday presents, but you're fucked so what can you do? Borrow more? Sure, if someone is mug-enough to give it to you, but you and I know that this is the route to oblivion. The selfish British 'children' on the other hand, will not forgive you for their diminished quality of existence. And that's precisely where we are at here. Socialists moaning about there not being enough money for the hospitals, schools, police, army, etc. etc., when there is no fucking money and when borrowing more to pay for it all does nothing but guarantee the bankruptcy of 'Britain".

That it still struggles on right on the brink of the precipice after 9 years of Tory governance is not something to engender confidence. With a majority and less effective opposition, there is every reason for people reliant on the NHS to be deeply concerned. But I expect you're alright Jack.

You're fucking deluded. Like many others, including the good ol' USA, this country has been sustaining the quality of its public services upon the back of ever-increasing borrowed funds for decades! We've recently seen several countries such as Greece and Portugal in Europe and many such countries elsewhere on the brink of bankruptcy. The situation in Britain is not one forged over the last 9 years. For fuck's sake man, wake the fuck up!
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Re: Brexit

#10146  Postby Spearthrower » Dec 15, 2019 5:57 am

No, it's been crippled by a Tory government that inherited debt to levels that have almost made this country bankrupt. Or do you think that the Conservatives imposed austerity upon its people for a laugh?


You might be able to buy into that in the first year of governance, but you can't claim that 9 years later.
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Re: Brexit

#10147  Postby jamest » Dec 15, 2019 6:00 am

Cito di Pense wrote:It's OK, jamest. Now you have a Fearless Leader, Burrito Johnsonini, to lead the nation back to unity. Watch out, though. It could lead from fasces to feces in one or two short years.

Hello Cito, I'm glad to see you.

Rest assured that I do not think that Thursday's election puts more money into either my wallet or that of my government. What it does do, is preserve the political credibility of Britain and of democracy, and to me those things were worth my rants.

Happy Xmas to you, squire.
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Re: Brexit

#10148  Postby jamest » Dec 15, 2019 6:09 am

Spearthrower wrote:
No, it's been crippled by a Tory government that inherited debt to levels that have almost made this country bankrupt. Or do you think that the Conservatives imposed austerity upon its people for a laugh?


You might be able to buy into that in the first year of governance, but you can't claim that 9 years later.

Are you aware of how much debt Britain is in?

Close to 2 trillion pounds, with an annual interest of 50 billion!!!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... ional_debt

And you think this should have been sorted within the first year of the Conservative's governanace back in about 2010? Even though they had inherited this debt from Blair's government and every year there's a cry to improve upon the quality of services across the board, even when your population is increasing by (just a rough guess) a million a year?

I want a pint of whatever you're drinking. :nono:
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Re: Brexit

#10149  Postby Spearthrower » Dec 15, 2019 6:12 am

jamest wrote:No, it's been crippled by a Tory government that inherited debt to levels that have almost made this country bankrupt. Or do you think that the Conservatives imposed austerity upon its people for a laugh?


Citation.


jamest wrote:It's a bit like waking up yourself and realising that you're thousands of pounds/dollars in debt and can no longer afford to pay the interest. What do you do? You make severe cuts in your own spending. At least, that's what most reasonable people do.


It's not really what the Conservatives did either.


jamest wrote:What's wrong here is that most people don't seem to appreciate that such principles extend to governments and that money - even for them - doesn't grow on trees. Of course, where you've got a situation in which the welfare state cannot cope and yet millions of Europeans are allowed to enter the country and put a stress on the whole infrastructure, of course you're going to notice a diminishing quality of service right across the board.


What's wrong here is that you're ranting without having bothered to support the claim from which all this ranting is extracted.


jamest wrote:Regardless, the people here expect the government of the UK to pluck cash out of its ass and pay for top quality services across the board, even when no such cash is at hand.


It's almost like they expect the government to appropriate that cash and spend it on the most vital services.

Now who was it that was recently offering tax cuts worth £8 billion for Britain's highest earners?

It's almost like people think there's going to be more money to be spent on vital services by collecting less tax - perhaps those people are expecting to pluck cash out of their asses to pay for those services.


jamest wrote: It's like you realising that you're skint and having to make cuts, and your children moaning about the diminishing quality of their Xmas and birthday presents, but you're fucked so what can you do? Borrow more? Sure, if someone is mug-enough to give it to you, but you and I know that this is the route to oblivion. The selfish British 'children' on the other hand, will not forgive you for their diminished quality of existence. And that's precisely where we are at here. Socialists moaning about there not being enough money for the hospitals, schools, police, army, etc. etc., when there is no fucking money and when borrowing more to pay for it all does nothing but guarantee the bankruptcy of 'Britain".


It's like you realizing you're skint and then deciding to earn less money thereby ensuring that you don't have enough money to pay for those services... but with the right policies, perhaps those services can be just wiped away. It's like intentional bankruptcy of services.

So back to you talking about how the NHS is holding up - because that's supposedly your argument. How do you lower the available moneys to support core services and expect the outcome to be more funds available?

It's like a magic trick for children.


jamest wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:That it still struggles on right on the brink of the precipice after 9 years of Tory governance is not something to engender confidence. With a majority and less effective opposition, there is every reason for people reliant on the NHS to be deeply concerned. But I expect you're alright Jack.


You're fucking deluded. Like many others, including the good ol' USA, this country has been sustaining the quality of its public services upon the back of ever-increasing borrowed funds for decades! We've recently seen several countries such as Greece and Portugal in Europe and many such countries elsewhere on the brink of bankruptcy. The situation in Britain is not one forged over the last 9 years. For fuck's sake man, wake the fuck up!


Well, I am not 'fucking deluded' sufficiently to notice that you appeared to think that tossing out some random abuse would be a valid proxy to actually counter the point I made.

The NHS has been absolutely gutted under the last 9 years of Tory governance, and if you believe otherwise then the very best explanation would be abject ignorance of the facts.
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Re: Brexit

#10150  Postby Spearthrower » Dec 15, 2019 6:35 am

jamest wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:
No, it's been crippled by a Tory government that inherited debt to levels that have almost made this country bankrupt. Or do you think that the Conservatives imposed austerity upon its people for a laugh?


You might be able to buy into that in the first year of governance, but you can't claim that 9 years later.

Are you aware of how much debt Britain is in?

Close to 2 trillion pounds, with an annual interest of 50 billion!!!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... ional_debt

And you think this should have been sorted within the first year of the Conservative's governanace back in about 2010? Even though they had inherited this debt from Blair's government and every year there's a cry to improve upon the quality of services across the board, even when your population is increasing by (just a rough guess) a million a year?

I want a pint of whatever you're drinking. :nono:


Well, whatever it is I am drinking, it would clearly be healthier for your comprehension that whatever it is you're taking.

Where did I say 'it should have been sorted with the first of a Conservative government'? I said that you can argue for the first year of any government that the economic situation is outside of their immediate control, but you can't do so 9 years later and be taken seriously.

As for the bollocks claim that they inherited all this debt from Blair's government, I am obliged to note that whatever it is you're drink must be illegal in most nations the world over.

Of course, you're just emoting at this from a tribalistic perspective. If this wasn't already obvious, then the fact that your only citation for all your claims so far is UK debt to GDP ratio on Wikipedia, and it has a giant fucking chart on the right side of that link showing that the national debt has DOUBLED under the Conservative government... so what on earth are you even warbling about?

Not only has the national debt bloated, but services have been crippled too - so where the fuck is that money being spent? It's like you don't realize that we pay taxes in ORDER TO get services we all need. And again, what are we looking at with a BJ government? A further tax break for corporations - following that of 2016 by Osborne - so even less funds coming from that source. Then there's the planned triple tax lock on income tax, NICs and VAT, the suggested tax break for workers, the tax break for high earners... where the fuck is the money coming from to reverse course on the national debt? They've had 9 years and spending austerity, and they still can't manage the books - and you talk of other people needing to wake the fuck up! :lol:

Finally, we're about to enter into Brexit which is going to have a far-reaching effect on the economy that simply cannot be fully predicted. Even if things turn out alright in the end, we're still in for many years, even a decade, of economic instability which is going to cost money upfront, going to lower income from many sources, and diminish output as we no longer have established trade deals. You're running on pure faith and not a jot of good reasoning behind it.
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Re: Brexit

#10151  Postby Pebble » Dec 15, 2019 7:48 am

Thommo wrote:I didn't ask for your opinion of me and I don't care about your opinion of me. I'm here to discuss Brexit and not let myself get sidetracked *yet again* by you into petty bickering that just spoils the thread for everyone else.

As a response to an anodyne, non personal comment you are way, way out of line, but I'm going to leave that there.

The electorate is the people of the nation(s) who were eligible to cast a vote, or who did cast a vote. Those people as a whole did not move away from remain parties, or towards leave parties. The only party in the election who can justifiably be said to have been *punished* (if there is such a thing as a will of the people in an election that was so regionalised and complex, having marked a turning point in division between a split on party and class and a division based on pro or anti European and immigration sentiment) was Labour. But Labour did not run on a pro remain platform anyway.

Of the parties who did run on a pro remain platform:
The Lib Dems gained 4.2% vote share
The SNP gained 0.8% vote share
The Greens gained 1.1% vote share
Plaid Cymru made no change in vote share

Of the parties who ran on a clear pro leave platform:
The Conservatives gained 1.2% vote share
Brexit Party + UKIP gained 0.3% vote share (from what UKIP got last time out)

Northern Ireland saw some small changes between parties, but nothing major enough to write out as the leave/remain balance wasn't changed wildly and it's a small number of voters.

That is all to say that the electorate, as a whole, did not move either from remain to neutral nor from neutral to leave in any meaningful fashion. Nor was there much movement in the other direction.

If you break it down on a regional level the pattern is again mixed, as an example Scotland saw a shift towards remain parties and movement between remain parties As a second example the North of England largely saw people move against Labour for a mixture of reasons, and part of that was leave voters who rather than changing their stance on Brexit didn't follow Labour when it moved its position from the 2017 manifesto from a commitment to leave to neutrality.

The question is not why the electorate punished remain, it's why they punished Labour, and Brexit is only a modest piece of that puzzle, even if the likes of Jon Lansman would desperately spin it another way. The FPTP post system (which I do not like and have criticised extensively over the years) does not account for Labour's performance. They got 32.1% of the votes and 31.1% of the seats. So where there is any justification for talking about *punishment* by the electorate not only is it not relevant it would explain nothing even if it was relevant.

As for the rest, well, Pebble is entitled to his opinion on who is responsible for the mess and gridlock of the last year and three years, one cannot argue with opinion. It is, however, quite clear that this is not an opinion shared by many of the voters who abandoned Labour and they too are entitled to their opinion on who to hold responsible. That the people get to decide their own opinion on political matters is, after all, the fundamental basis of democracy.



Your analysis looks absolutely fair. However, I was not speaking literally - there is no way the electorate could 'decide' anything - its 'decisions' simply are the aggregate result of a multitude of complex interacting and non interacting elements.

My main point was don't expect a rational outcome in 5 years either.
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Re: Brexit

#10152  Postby Thommo » Dec 15, 2019 7:49 am

Perhaps I misunderstood you, fair enough and thanks for clarifying.
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Re: Brexit

#10153  Postby aufbahrung » Dec 15, 2019 8:10 am

Labour sounds like too much hard work, that is why no one voted. Uncertain times better the devil you know. That's why the divorce rate goes down in recessions. Can't be sure you'll find fools gold with your next dig.
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Re: Brexit

#10154  Postby Thomas Eshuis » Dec 15, 2019 8:23 am

jamest wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:
jamest wrote:... the notion that the NHS is not going to exist nor that you will not have access to medical care after The Conservatives won on Thursday/Friday, is utterly ludicrous. I mean, you might be forgetting this but we've already had 9 years of a Tory government in a financially crippled Britain/World.


:what:

The NHS has been crippled by the last 9 years of Tory government!

No, it's been crippled by a Tory government that inherited debt to levels that have almost made this country bankrupt. Or do you think that the Conservatives imposed austerity upon its people for a laugh?

Image

Image
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Re: Brexit

#10155  Postby GrahamH » Dec 15, 2019 8:35 am

https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-and ... onal-debt/


You really need to look at deficit and adjust for inflation and GDP
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Re: Brexit

#10156  Postby aufbahrung » Dec 15, 2019 8:49 am

A lot of the issues around national debt, which is a fraction of what it is in America(home of the worlds reserve currency until the day it ain't) is because politicans and most economical advising types don't understand that exponential function. It's a real drag on growth after it starts taking off...it's a real fly in the ointment of capitalism.
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Re: Brexit

#10157  Postby Thommo » Dec 15, 2019 8:58 am

Thomas Eshuis wrote:Image

Image


Unfortunately entirely spurious. Public debt was low when the recession hit, the problem was a high deficit. The Chancellor of the Exchequer of the day, Alistair Darling, correctly predicted that would take about a decade to get under control. And as long as that deficit is above the break even point (about 1% to 2% in real terms because of economic growth and inflation, rather than the 0% one may naturally presuppose) debt inevitably grows, by definition.

You can see a similar pattern across most of the Western world, although the UK had a particularly high deficit through a combination of cyclical (as opposed to Keynesian counter-cyclical) borrowing increases and a particularly high exposure to banking and finance. I think estimates of the structural deficit put it about a third to half of the total, with the other half to two-thirds being down to the recession.

It's quite illuminating reading what was said being said at the time, for example:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/apr ... ir-darling
The Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that even big spending cuts in health and schools may not be enough to fill the structural deficit in the nation's finances.

Robert Chote, the institute's director, said that by 2017-18 the loss through tax increases and cuts in public spending would be equivalent to £2,840 a year for every family in the country - only half of which has been accounted for by the government.

The IFS calculated that there is a £45bn black hole in the finances, requiring a further tax rises of £1,430 per family, or massive spending cuts. While it predicted that most of the hole would be filled by cuts, the shadow chancellor, George Osborne, was quick to condemn Labour's "secret tax bombshell".


It's probably fair to say that the Conservatives' insistence on making this shortfall up all but entirely through those cuts rather than those potential tax rises are why services like the NHS have been hit so hard. The need to close the gap was very real though, and it was only ever a question of how best to absorb the pain.
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Re: Brexit

#10158  Postby Thommo » Dec 15, 2019 9:45 am

I know a lot of this is only tangential to Brexit, but I found Ashcroft's post election poll breakdown here:
https://www.conservativehome.com/platfo ... -poll.html
quite informative.
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Re: Brexit

#10159  Postby GrahamH » Dec 15, 2019 10:25 am

Thommo wrote:The electorate is the people of the nation(s) who were eligible to cast a vote, or who did cast a vote. Those people as a whole did not move away from remain parties, or towards leave parties. The only party in the election who can justifiably be said to have been *punished* (if there is such a thing as a will of the people in an election that was so regionalised and complex, having marked a turning point in division between a split on party and class and a division based on pro or anti European and immigration sentiment) was Labour. But Labour did not run on a pro remain platform anyway.


Thank you for that considered reply. I apologise for my reply made in frustration at your dismissive remark.

Of course there is no dispute that the popular vote didn't really move from numerous opinion polls over the last few years.
If you define "punished" in terms of popular vote share you are certainly correct.

If I define "punished" as not electing MPs, which I think it perfectly reasonable, then parties speaking out for remain and against the withdrawal agreement can indeed be said to have been "punished".

Labour was offering another referendum with options of remain or a soft exit - remaining in a customs union, possibly retaining regulatory alignment and free movement and making payment to the EU. Many, many Labour MPs declared they would strongly campaign for remain. Lots of leavers would see the Labour offer as BRINO and not True Brexit. So we disagree on voter perception of Labour's position on remain/"real Brexit".

It was notable that Labour collapsed in it's leave voting heartlands without gaining in lots of remain constituencies and the most ardent remainers in the LibDems took a beating while the party overall gained one seat.

If you see in that no verdict on Brexit we can just accept there is a difference of opinion.
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Re: Brexit

#10160  Postby GrahamH » Dec 15, 2019 10:39 am

Thommo wrote:I know a lot of this is only tangential to Brexit, but I found Ashcroft's post election poll breakdown here:
https://www.conservativehome.com/platfo ... -poll.html
quite informative.


That's interesting reading. Thanks for posting.
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