Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#1541  Postby Scot Dutchy » Dec 31, 2017 11:10 am

DavidMcC wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:It is a big step. Most ex-pats get by here quite well with only speaking minimal Dutch.

I'll vouch for that. A whie back, I was given the choice by my employer (Phiips) of being made redundant in the UK, or being sent to Eindhoven to continue in my job. I chose the latter, partly because employment opportunities in the UK at the time were not good. I found that the Dutch people generally were very helpful, knowing that I was a Brit.

EDIT: I am not sure whether I would have had the same welcome had I been black, however.


I am quite sure you would. There always have been blacks playing for PSV which is a religion in the city. Mind you Eindhoven is a very Brabant city even people from the west find it difficult to be accepted. The accent is very different.
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Re: Brexit

#1542  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 07, 2018 12:26 pm

EU Brexit impact studies:

Brexit Impact Studies
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Re: Brexit

#1543  Postby DavidMcC » Jan 07, 2018 1:39 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
DavidMcC wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:It is a big step. Most ex-pats get by here quite well with only speaking minimal Dutch.

I'll vouch for that. A whie back, I was given the choice by my employer (Phiips) of being made redundant in the UK, or being sent to Eindhoven to continue in my job. I chose the latter, partly because employment opportunities in the UK at the time were not good. I found that the Dutch people generally were very helpful, knowing that I was a Brit.

EDIT: I am not sure whether I would have had the same welcome had I been black, however.


I am quite sure you would. There always have been blacks playing for PSV which is a religion in the city. ...

Maybe, maybe not. I doubt that the mere presence of black players in PSV Eindhoven is sufficient evidence to claim that I would have had just as friendly a welcome by townsfolk.
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Re: Brexit

#1544  Postby felltoearth » Jan 07, 2018 2:08 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:EU Brexit impact studies:

Brexit Impact Studies

Quickly read a couple of the concluding sections, and the general tone is that the Brexit will be a pain in the ass but in the end it's a wash.
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Re: Brexit

#1545  Postby Tracer Tong » Jan 08, 2018 6:17 pm

European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker says he believes Brexit will happen and the EU should tackle its looming budget shortfall.

"Don't believe those who say that it's not going to happen and that people in the UK have realised their error... I don't think that's going to be the case," he told a Brussels conference.

The EU budget commissioner said the UK's departure would leave a hole of about €12-13bn (£11-12bn; $14-$16bn).

The UK's exit is set for March 2019.

Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger said the budget gap would have to be closed with 50% spending cuts and 50% fresh money. He suggested a Europe-wide tax on plastic products as a source of extra revenue.

The Commission will publish a proposal in May this year and has urged EU leaders to agree a budget deal by May 2019.

...

"There will have to be cuts in some major [EU] programmes - some significant cuts," Mr Oettinger warned.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has said Britain will honour its current commitments to the EU budget, until 2020.

The UK is one of 10 member states who pay more into the EU budget than they get out. Only France and Germany contribute more.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42609057
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Re: Brexit

#1546  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 08, 2018 7:07 pm

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Re: Brexit

#1547  Postby Tracer Tong » Jan 08, 2018 8:13 pm

It'll be an even bigger contributor per capita in a few years.

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Re: Brexit

#1548  Postby Thommo » Jan 08, 2018 9:34 pm

Tracer Tong wrote:
European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker says he believes Brexit will happen and the EU should tackle its looming budget shortfall.

"Don't believe those who say that it's not going to happen and that people in the UK have realised their error... I don't think that's going to be the case," he told a Brussels conference.

The EU budget commissioner said the UK's departure would leave a hole of about €12-13bn (£11-12bn; $14-$16bn).

The UK's exit is set for March 2019.

Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger said the budget gap would have to be closed with 50% spending cuts and 50% fresh money. He suggested a Europe-wide tax on plastic products as a source of extra revenue.

The Commission will publish a proposal in May this year and has urged EU leaders to agree a budget deal by May 2019.

...

"There will have to be cuts in some major [EU] programmes - some significant cuts," Mr Oettinger warned.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has said Britain will honour its current commitments to the EU budget, until 2020.

The UK is one of 10 member states who pay more into the EU budget than they get out. Only France and Germany contribute more.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42609057


Whilst it's reassuring to see the EU face up to its budgeting reality, which extends well beyond the loss of Britain's net contributions, I have to say I'm surprised to see Juncker as one of the sources of a reality check.

There still seems to be an elephant in the room regarding the size of the commission and the stated intention of not laying people off though, which I suspect Juncker will be rather slower to point out.
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Re: Brexit

#1549  Postby mrjonno » Jan 09, 2018 2:36 pm

The EU budget is tiny, no country contributes much to it unless you think a few billion is a lot on an national or continental stage.
It's basically admin fee to which we get back in free trade

Problem is you get thickies who think a billion pounds is a lot of money, its not
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Re: Brexit

#1550  Postby MarkS » Jan 09, 2018 4:19 pm

mrjonno wrote:The EU budget is tiny, no country contributes much to it unless you think a few billion is a lot on an national or continental stage.
It's basically admin fee to which we get back in free trade

Problem is you get thickies who think a billion pounds is a lot of money, its not


Don't tell the DUP that!
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Re: Brexit

#1551  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 09, 2018 4:22 pm

mrjonno wrote:The EU budget is tiny, no country contributes much to it unless you think a few billion is a lot on an national or continental stage.
It's basically admin fee to which we get back in free trade

Problem is you get thickies who think a billion pounds is a lot of money, its not


On the scale of things I agree. America's national debt is really bigly money.
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Re: Brexit

#1552  Postby Thommo » Jan 09, 2018 9:34 pm

mrjonno wrote:The EU budget is tiny, no country contributes much to it unless you think a few billion is a lot on an national or continental stage.
It's basically admin fee to which we get back in free trade

Problem is you get thickies who think a billion pounds is a lot of money, its not


(a) It is, although context makes something of a difference.
(b) All the major net contributors pay far more than that, let alone the sum total of all contributions, which is around £130-£140bn.
(c) Only a small fraction of that contribution is spent on arrangements for free trade.

Currently the EU-27 pay around 1% of their GDP into the EU budget, and the current discussion within the EU is that that needs to increase because of the budget shortfall. For point of reference the NATO defence commitment that many European governments are finding difficult to meet is 2% of GDP.

I would suggest that when the "thickies" are more accurate than you are, it's probably time to climb down from your high horse.
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Re: Brexit

#1553  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 10, 2018 11:35 am

The difference with NATO is that they get no benefit so object paying it and also why NATO should scrapped as soon as possible as it has no purpose now the Cold War is over although Trump and the right wing Brits would love to see another.
Why waste money on something that is just a tool of America? The same is true of the UN and all its agencies.
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Re: Brexit

#1554  Postby mrjonno » Jan 10, 2018 11:38 am

1% of GDP is hardly a lot and pays for itself, spending more on the military is popular in some circles but not in many others.

Sorry I shouldn't have used thickie, thickie racist/racist enabling scum is probably a better description
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Re: Brexit

#1555  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jan 10, 2018 11:46 am

NATO is political here and plenty object spending money on it. The tories in the UK love it as it gives the UK (in their feeble minds) position in the world which it does not deserve.
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Brexit

#1556  Postby felltoearth » Jan 10, 2018 2:14 pm

mrjonno wrote:1% of GDP is hardly a lot and pays for itself, spending more on the military is popular in some circles but not in many others.

Sorry I shouldn't have used thickie, thickie racist/racist enabling scum is probably a better description

The question isn't what percentage, the question is what percentage of your GDP is dependent on that 1% investment. Thing is it's hard to answer that question with any certainty (ETA or more importantly simplicity) and it was the soft underbelly of the Stay side.
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Re: Brexit

#1557  Postby Thommo » Jan 10, 2018 2:44 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:The difference with NATO is that they get no benefit so object paying it and also why NATO should scrapped as soon as possible as it has no purpose now the Cold War is over although Trump and the right wing Brits would love to see another.
Why waste money on something that is just a tool of America? The same is true of the UN and all its agencies.


The commitment is money spent on defence of their own country - something every country does anyway, not on NATO contributions (which are of the order of hundreths of a percent of GDP).

The irony is of course that the more the NATO members spend on their own defence the less they are reliant on the US. If they all cut back heavily below 2% and became pacifists then the only line of defence would be the USA.

Anyway, the point was that Jonno described a sum of money each year that represents about half of all defence spending by several of the most militarily powerful countries in the world as tiny and as not being a lot of money, when you put it in context, that means finding other similar sums of money spent by those same national governments and finding if they are tiny. They aren't.

The fact remains that EU contributions are around half the total of defence spending by EU nations, and the vast, vast majority of that money is not being used to propagate free trade. Even parts which nominally are propagating free trade rely on a particular set of assumptions that don't necessarily hold true, for example the EU has absolutely tied free trade in goods with free movement of people not out of an economic necessity, but out of a political aspiration.
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Re: Brexit

#1558  Postby Thommo » Jan 10, 2018 3:09 pm

mrjonno wrote:1% of GDP is hardly a lot and pays for itself, spending more on the military is popular in some circles but not in many others.

Sorry I shouldn't have used thickie, thickie racist/racist enabling scum is probably a better description


Backing up factually erroneous statements by laying on the bigotry and hatred doesn't actually make them more persuasive. Doubly so when the object of your derision's chief fault appears to be bigotry and hatred.

I think you'd do well to apply this intellect of yours, that you see as separating your superior self from the "thickies" and understand the difference between "the defence budget" and "spending more on" the defence budget. When people were debating (for example) scrapping Trident, the sums of money under discussion were more than an order of magnitude smaller than the defence budget as a whole, and consequently much smaller than the annual contribution to the EU. Normally getting the point quickly is a sign of intellect, missing it badly - quite the reverse.

To spell it out in painful detail EU governments spend about the same on the EU budget in two years as they do on defence in one year. That means that if you insist that the EU budget amount is "tiny" and not worth worrying about then that defence budget is of similar character. However, since anyone with two functioning brain cells to rub together can see that's patently not the case it shows the fault in the assertion.

I'm all for people making a case in favour of the EU, but I am utterly bemused at this weird need to put others down and these expressions of superiority and purity that have no actual basis in reality.

I've long felt that there is a case to be made for many of the EU's activities, but justifying them means actually doing so, not falling back on pretending that the money is going on free trade and therefore yields more than it invests. It was a fundamental tactical error in the referendum campaign that this lie was so central to remainers, who also tried to sell the view "let's stay in a reformed EU" instead of "let's stay in the EU", despite knowing full well that forty years of British attempts at reform had gone nowhere and showed every sign of continuing to do so*.

Attempts to dismiss, deride and belittle were singularly unsuccessful during the referendum and continue to be so. What's needed is perhaps insight, analysis and considered response. If the only justification the EU has for its existence is free trade then the vast majority of EU activities and spending, which lie outside of that justification, face existential crisis.

* Who remembers Cameron's campaign to make sure Juncker didn't become president of the comission?
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Re: Brexit

#1559  Postby mrjonno » Jan 10, 2018 3:21 pm

The only real issues with the EU is its too democratic and not integrated enough. So reform would be streamlining it (ie less democratic) and working closer together (ie more integration)

I fully support that but I doubt many others do.

You can't reason with unreasonable people, need to work on ensuring brexiters die of old age and suffer to the maximum due to austerity ++ we will get from leaving. If you want to train a dog you don't get in a debate with it you shout at it and give it rewards to get it act in the way you want it to.

Brexiters are not my people, in fact I hardly see them as the same species they are my enemy in exactly the same way as ISIS are and should be treated that way

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Re: Brexit

#1560  Postby Sendraks » Jan 10, 2018 3:30 pm

mrjonno wrote:If you want to train a dog you don't get in a debate with it you shout at it and give it rewards to get it act in the way you want it to.


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