Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#21  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 3:56 pm

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Re: Brexit

#22  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 3:58 pm

chairman bill wrote:The best move the Tories could make now is cancel Article 50 and stop all non-EU immigration. May could announce that she's negotiated such a good deal that we must stay, as the deal cuts immigration by over 50%, whilst giving us continued access to the single market and all other benefits of membership. And we just stay in the EU. Job done. Then gradually review the immigration rules.


She cant cancel Bill. Art 50 is a mutual agreement.
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Re: Brexit

#23  Postby mrjonno » Jun 12, 2017 5:33 pm

Cut all immigration from non-EU countries, cut all immigration from families of people already here, cut immigration of students?

If you can support yourself and are capable of obeying the law you should be welcome from anywhere in the world
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Re: Brexit

#24  Postby Ironclad » Jun 12, 2017 6:28 pm

People get around the rules.
IIRC I was called something like a closet racist for wondering why this wasn't an option - using EU only for critical staff, nurses etc, rather than sweeping the many nations for visas to hand out (eg) - when UKIPs values became impossible to ignore.
While UKIP had their single goal, they played on the migration fear quite well. However, I feel (perhaps rightly or wrongly) it isn't the Polish or the Spaniard migrant Joe Bloggs wants to see less off. They tend to be white, and Catholic...
And don't throw a turd in my direction, these are ideas not opinions. My wife is neither white, Christian, or European. Thanks
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Re: Brexit

#25  Postby VazScep » Jun 12, 2017 6:40 pm

Ironclad wrote:People get around the rules.
IIRC I was called something like a closet racist for wondering why this wasn't an option - using EU only for critical staff, nurses etc, rather than sweeping the many nations for visas to hand out (eg) - when UKIPs values became impossible to ignore.
While UKIP had their single goal, they played on the migration fear quite well. However, I feel (perhaps rightly or wrongly) it isn't the Polish or the Spaniard migrant Joe Bloggs wants to see less off. They tend to be white, and Catholic...
And don't throw a turd in my direction, these are ideas not opinions. My wife is neither white, Christian, or European. Thanks
That's not my impression. I thought the Poles got a lot of shit in this country. Our very own KIR expressed some personal discomfort towards them.
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Re: Brexit

#26  Postby Pulsar » Jun 12, 2017 11:57 pm

"The longer I live the more I see that I am never wrong about anything, and that all the pains that I have so humbly taken to verify my notions have only wasted my time." - George Bernard Shaw
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Re: Brexit

#27  Postby fisherman » Jun 13, 2017 7:00 pm

chairman bill wrote:The best move the Tories could make now is cancel Article 50 and stop all non-EU immigration. May could announce that she's negotiated such a good deal that we must stay, as the deal cuts immigration by over 50%, whilst giving us continued access to the single market and all other benefits of membership. And we just stay in the EU. Job done. Then gradually review the immigration rules.


It would be political suicide for the Tories back down and become remainers, while Labour officially supports leaving the single market. The UKIP voters which backed both parties in this election would punish which ever was to u turn - they'd be toast.

McDonnell two days ago.

"We will push for a jobs-first Brexit. Labour wants to respect the results of the referendum.

"Staying in the single market would not honour that. We remain absolutely wedding to completing Brexit and getting on with the job."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/815670/John-McDonnell-Labour-UK-single-market-Brexit

I just don't see what meaningful form a softening of Brexit can take. :dunno:
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Re: Brexit

#28  Postby Byron » Jun 13, 2017 7:11 pm

A cross-party deal to stay in the EEA (the customs union is up in the air, especially with the DUP rejecting any Ireland-only deal).

In stripping the UK of its financial passport and the EEA's harmonized regs, leading to paralyzed supply chains, lines of trucks at the ports, and international companies jumping ship, leaving the single market would be the opposite of a "jobs-first Brexit," it'd be an economic catastrophe. Either McDonnell knows this, and is bullshitting in case another election's called; or he doesn't, in which case, he'll soon learn.

Labour's surge came in Remain areas, and its young members are the opposite of hard Brexiters. The overwhelming majority of its MPs voted to stay in the EU, and will have no appetite for a hard Brexit. Labour's own Brexit spokesman has no appetite for a hard Brexit. If McDonnell tries to push it through -- and he may not -- he won't be getting a free ride.
Last edited by Byron on Jun 13, 2017 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit

#29  Postby Byron » Jun 13, 2017 7:18 pm

Alternatively, the hard Brexiters willfully ignore political reality, go by the letter of Labour's manifesto -- and barely that -- to claim an 80% mandate for a hard Brexit (as some prominent fools and rogues have been doing on Twitter), and try and ram through their dream of a supersized Singapore. It'd be an excellent way to collapse Brexit entirely.

As the smarter Brexiters have already accepted, building a consensus to leave the EU but stay in the EEA -- perhaps via the EFTA if they'll have the UK, perhaps via a bespoke treaty -- is the best, likely only, way to make a success of Brexit and keep the UK in one piece. However much the headbangers scream about betrayal, advocates of the EEA are trying to help them.
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Re: Brexit

#30  Postby ronmcd » Jun 13, 2017 7:53 pm

Think of the worst outcome. Think of the most incompetent and self-defeating method of achieving any outcome.

That's what we will get. These people are idiots.
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Re: Brexit

#31  Postby Byron » Jun 13, 2017 8:04 pm

Worst outcome's the U.K. crashing out the EU with no deal, leading, in short order, to iScotland and some federal fudge on Irish reunification that allows the unionists to pretend the north's still a part of Britain.

Worse for some. :smile:
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Re: Brexit

#32  Postby VazScep » Jun 13, 2017 8:43 pm

Byron wrote:Worst outcome's the U.K. crashing out the EU with no deal, leading, in short order, to iScotland and some federal fudge on Irish reunification that allows the unionists to pretend the north's still a part of Britain.

Worse for some. :smile:
iScotland = Interactive Scotland? Push the red button to convert country to Labour.
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Re: Brexit

#33  Postby fisherman » Jun 13, 2017 8:49 pm

Byron wrote:A cross-party deal to stay in the EEA (the customs union is up in the air, especially with the DUP rejecting any Ireland-only deal).

In stripping the UK of its financial passport and the EEA's harmonized regs, leading to paralyzed supply chains, lines of trucks at the ports, and international companies jumping ship, leaving the single market would be the opposite of a "jobs-first Brexit," it'd be an economic catastrophe. Either McDonnell knows this, and is bullshitting in case another election's called; or he doesn't, in which case, he'll soon learn.

Labour's surge came in Remain areas, and its young members are the opposite of hard Brexiters. The overwhelming majority of its MPs voted to stay in the EU, and will have no appetite for a hard Brexit. Labour's own Brexit spokesman has no appetite for a hard Brexit. If McDonnell tries to push it through -- and he may not -- he won't be getting a free ride.


Until Corbyn indicates otherwise, I don't see Labour changing stance while the Tories are shoogly and the potential for another Election is possible. Economically, it seems that both parties accept that GDP will be lower as result of Brexit and I would read "jobs first" as meaning that "no deal" is off the table.

Is there any analysis in on what the Labour surge valued most in the manifesto? I get the impression from listening to Corbyn, he believes it was the message of hope and anti-austerity that the manifesto promised rather than any Brexit policy distinction.

Who knows, maybe Westminster will Forest Gump us into EEA, but it needs to start happening PDQ.
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Re: Brexit

#34  Postby Byron » Jun 13, 2017 9:14 pm

According to the Torygraph (the opposite of Remainer wishful thinking) secret cross-party talks are already occurring. Ruth Davidson's gone on record about a change of Brexit strategy, and thanks to the combined demand of no hard border and no special status, the DUP's Brexit position leans that way.

Corbyn can hold any position he likes: MPs in Remain areas, who won their seats off the back of a Brexit backlash (since they merrily voted Tory through austerity, we can reasonably infer that's not the cause), will be looking nervously to their majorities; and Blairites never supported him to begin with. Right now, McDonnell's the one pushing back hardest, and whatever new affection there is for Corbyn outside his supporters, it sure doesn't extend to him.
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Re: Brexit

#35  Postby Byron » Jun 13, 2017 9:16 pm

VazScep wrote:iScotland = Interactive Scotland? Push the red button to convert country to Labour.

Calamity Kez don't do too well with buttons ...
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Re: Brexit

#36  Postby mrjonno » Jun 13, 2017 9:27 pm

The problem at the moment is the official position of both Labour and the Tories is have your cake and eat it, Labour is just saying it in a nicer way.

Now behind the scenes there is of course chaos and multiple opinions , maybe one difference is if Labour couldn't get a good deal it wouldn't go for economic suicide while the Tories would
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Re: Brexit

#37  Postby Byron » Jun 13, 2017 9:42 pm

Neither party would knowingly trash the economy (as this general shows, the tabloids' power to spin incompetence and deflect blame has its limits). The UK could crash out due to incompetence, but even that would require a perfect storm of failure, in both Whitehall and Brussels.

Powerful interests stand against that. Put ye faith in the suits, both grey and pinstriped.
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Re: Brexit

#38  Postby mrjonno » Jun 13, 2017 9:48 pm

Trying to get an impossible deal and knowing it is with the EU is as close as possible to deliberately choosing to crash the UK economy. It's manslaughter at least if not murder of the UK
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Re: Brexit

#39  Postby tuco » Jun 13, 2017 9:56 pm

Out of curiosity, are there any analysis as for consequences of various scenarios? Just like when it was done before (not) adopting the euro. I am asking because - from both sides and commentators -, I mostly hear just rhetoric. Surely, some rough numbers could be done. Also I do not think that the economical side of Brexit is of most importance but rather lets say losing touch with the UK and the other way around and losing valuable lets say fellow citizens.
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Re: Brexit

#40  Postby mrjonno » Jun 13, 2017 10:05 pm

Consequences we make Britain great again, we get sovereignty and we have less muslims in the country if we have a hard brexit

That's about the level of analysis your average brexiter is interested in (even if its wrong)
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