Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#61  Postby ronmcd » Jun 15, 2017 12:41 pm

fisherman wrote:
Byron wrote:And as predicted, Brussels (well, Guy Verhofstadt, if there's a difference) says that staying will cost the UK its budget rebate.

The longer the British govt. pushes Fantasy Brexit, the higher the risk that Brexit could collapse completely, and the UK end up even deeper into the EU than it is already. The headbangers, being headbangers, may well end up achieving the precise opposite of their demands.


I read that as a kind and helpful and guiding nudge towards the EEA.

Politicians really need to start rubbishing the idea that EEA is the same as the EU.


https://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/statu ... 4921982976
Commentators talk as if Britain can easily have a soft Brexit via the "Norway deal." That's not looking likely


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Re: Brexit

#62  Postby Matt_B » Jun 15, 2017 1:36 pm

Which EFTA member do you think might wield the veto?

Also, I'm not sure whether the UK would necessarily need to join EFTA to remain in the EEA after leaving the EU. They're two different treaties and there's some legal ambiguity as to whether an EEA exit is implied.

The EEA is certainly not the easy way out though. It's more like a bad compromise that should please nobody and the EFTA countries are only in it because they lack the political will to become EU members.
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Re: Brexit

#63  Postby fisherman » Jun 15, 2017 1:59 pm

Matt_B wrote:Which EFTA member do you think might wield the veto?

Also, I'm not sure whether the UK would necessarily need to join EFTA to remain in the EEA after leaving the EU. They're two different treaties and there's some legal ambiguity as to whether an EEA exit is implied.

The EEA is certainly not the easy way out though. It's more like a bad compromise that should please nobody and the EFTA countries are only in it because they lack the political will to become EU members.


Is there such a thing as a bad compromise in this situation? If there is, it is difficult to see how EEA would be it. :dunno:
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Re: Brexit

#64  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 15, 2017 2:19 pm

Matt_B wrote:Which EFTA member do you think might wield the veto?

Also, I'm not sure whether the UK would necessarily need to join EFTA to remain in the EEA after leaving the EU. They're two different treaties and there's some legal ambiguity as to whether an EEA exit is implied.

The EEA is certainly not the easy way out though. It's more like a bad compromise that should please nobody and the EFTA countries are only in it because they lack the political will to become EU members.


It is like their own home politics. Norway wont join because all the other Scandinavian countries are in. That is Norway.
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Re: Brexit

#65  Postby ronmcd » Jun 15, 2017 2:22 pm

Matt_B wrote:Which EFTA member do you think might wield the veto?

Also, I'm not sure whether the UK would necessarily need to join EFTA to remain in the EEA after leaving the EU. They're two different treaties and there's some legal ambiguity as to whether an EEA exit is implied.

The EEA is certainly not the easy way out though. It's more like a bad compromise that should please nobody and the EFTA countries are only in it because they lack the political will to become EU members.

I don't know, to be honest I'm utterly lost and confused about the whole thing.

Unfortunately, I suspect I'm not as lost and confused as Theresa May and the UK govt.

Worth mentioning May removed 2 members of the negotiating team last week, post election, replacing them with new ones. With a week to go to the negotiations. Now, tell me that's not lost and confused :shifty:
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Re: Brexit

#66  Postby fisherman » Jun 15, 2017 2:28 pm

ronmcd wrote:
fisherman wrote:
Byron wrote:And as predicted, Brussels (well, Guy Verhofstadt, if there's a difference) says that staying will cost the UK its budget rebate.

The longer the British govt. pushes Fantasy Brexit, the higher the risk that Brexit could collapse completely, and the UK end up even deeper into the EU than it is already. The headbangers, being headbangers, may well end up achieving the precise opposite of their demands.


I read that as a kind and helpful and guiding nudge towards the EEA.

Politicians really need to start rubbishing the idea that EEA is the same as the EU.


https://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/statu ... 4921982976
Commentators talk as if Britain can easily have a soft Brexit via the "Norway deal." That's not looking likely


Image



If she is implying by the quote from a Norwegian minister that they are likely to veto UK's application, the Norwegian PM clarified their position.

"It would be wrong to flag a veto or no veto now, and I believe anyway that we will find good solutions to these problems," Solberg said.

She said it was important for all countries to set out their national interests in the debate. "Then all must be prepared for anything, if it turns out that Britain joins EFTA," she said.



http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-efta-idUKKCN10T1E0
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Re: Brexit

#67  Postby tuco » Jun 15, 2017 2:43 pm

I do not believe the EU will act on individual bases. Sure, in theory single veto would, but in practice I suspect the EU will be united. Indeed, national interests will be negotiated but the final deal will be confirmed unanimously.
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Re: Brexit

#68  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 15, 2017 2:53 pm

Well with Canada Wallonia did not go with the pack.
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Re: Brexit

#69  Postby tuco » Jun 15, 2017 3:02 pm

Good point, however, one more reason to have this negotiated better, as she said .. national interests need to be taken into account.
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Re: Brexit

#70  Postby Matt_B » Jun 15, 2017 3:11 pm

fisherman wrote:Is there such a thing as a bad compromise in this situation? If there is, it is difficult to see how EEA would be it. :dunno:


It's a bad compromise because it has both leavers and remainers giving up things that they want without either of them gaining anything they'd consider of value over the status quo. Basically, it's giving up all the power and influence the UK has in the EU for the sake of people who don't think the UK has any of either to begin with.

Of course, with the actual middle ground unachievable - because of the inextricable link between free trade and freedom of movement - it keeps getting put forth as the next best thing. That doesn't change what it is though.
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Re: Brexit

#71  Postby mrjonno » Jun 15, 2017 3:20 pm

You come up with the compromise and put it to a referendum along with staying in the EU (hopefully we get get the EU to agree to this).

This time it will be obvious what the results of both choices will be . People won't be happy regardless of the vote but they will at least shut up and we can get on with running the country. I doubt the tabloid press would press hard either way
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Re: Brexit

#72  Postby Matt_B » Jun 15, 2017 3:47 pm

mrjonno wrote:You come up with the compromise and put it to a referendum along with staying in the EU (hopefully we get get the EU to agree to this).

This time it will be obvious what the results of both choices will be . People won't be happy regardless of the vote but they will at least shut up and we can get on with running the country. I doubt the tabloid press would press hard either way


I'm not convinced. Between the EU and a shit sandwich of unknown providence the UK electorate still voted for the latter. What makes you think they'd actually choose something sensible if the options were clear?

Heck, you could probably have a referendum between remaining in it and detonating a 50 megaton nuclear device over the West Midlands and it'd still turn into a close run thing.
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Re: Brexit

#73  Postby mrjonno » Jun 15, 2017 4:02 pm

Heck, you could probably have a referendum between remaining in it and detonating a 50 megaton nuclear device over the West Midlands and it'd still turn into a close run thing.


Well to be fair I live in the West Midlands and I would be a floating voter on that one

Well the referendum would be EU or EEA which would confuse anyone with an iq less than 80 (ie half of brexiters :)
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Re: Brexit

#74  Postby fisherman » Jun 15, 2017 4:04 pm

Matt_B wrote:
fisherman wrote:Is there such a thing as a bad compromise in this situation? If there is, it is difficult to see how EEA would be it. :dunno:


It's a bad compromise because it has both leavers and remainers giving up things that they want without either of them gaining anything they'd consider of value over the status quo. Basically, it's giving up all the power and influence the UK has in the EU for the sake of people who don't think the UK has any of either to begin with.

Of course, with the actual middle ground unachievable - because of the inextricable link between free trade and freedom of movement - it keeps getting put forth as the next best thing. That doesn't change what it is though.


I'm not sure I agree.

The status quo i.e. remaining in the EU, is unacceptable to those who chose leave and carried the referendum, the EEA separates the UK from EU and any further political union is stopped dead, with a repatriation of sovereignty for trade (external), agriculture and fisheries. For those who wanted to remain in the EU, the EEA allows UK to stay in the single market with freedom of movement and the avoidance of a destructive cliff edge exit.
That's real tangible benefits for both sides.

Compromise is necessary for the good of the UK now and this one would get the support of all Westminster political parties.
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Re: Brexit

#75  Postby mrjonno » Jun 15, 2017 4:09 pm

We don't have a significant fisheries industry, no one seriously wants to start negotiating external trade agreements and agriculture is just one big subsidy whoever it comes from.

The problem is still allows in too many Muslims which is all most brexiters really ever cared about
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Re: Brexit

#76  Postby Byron » Jun 15, 2017 4:17 pm

Yes, the EEA is a compromise that moderates from both sides can live with. The EU's made clear that it's on offer, and expressed frequent regrets that the UK hasn't (so far) gone in that direction.

It needn't be via the EFTA: either a bespoke deal; or a holding pen until bilateral treaties like Switzerland's are drawn up.

The "no such thing as a soft Brexit" line from some in the EU camp may succeed in sinking Brexit, but alternatively, it may lead to the UK crashing out without a deal. If it succeeds in collapsing Brexit, the headbangers' fury will be stoked past boiling, and amusing as it'll be, their determination to get the UK out again will be boosted. A victory accompanied by accusations of treachery can be more dangerous than any defeat.

Remain needs to unite around the EEA, in alliance with those Brexiters who aren't obsessed with cutting immigration, or achieving some mythical absolute sovereignty. Staying in the single market makes it much easier to rejoin the EU, which must be done with genuine popular consent.
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Re: Brexit

#77  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 15, 2017 4:23 pm

Good luck with that one.
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Re: Brexit

#78  Postby Matt_B » Jun 15, 2017 4:30 pm

fisherman wrote:I'm not sure I agree.

The status quo i.e. remaining in the EU, is unacceptable to those who chose leave and carried the referendum, the EEA separates the UK from EU and any further political union is stopped dead, with a repatriation of sovereignty for trade (external), agriculture and fisheries. For those who wanted to remain in the EU, the EEA allows UK to stay in the single market with freedom of movement and the avoidance of a destructive cliff edge exit.
That's real tangible benefits for both sides.

Compromise is necessary for the good of the UK now and this one would get the support of all Westminster political parties.


OK. It's something the UK's 12000 fishermen want. The CFP sucks. I get that.

I'm not sure about agriculture though; while the UK might be able to replace their subsidies they're going to lose their access to cheap labour from Eastern Europe. On the whole I'm getting a gloomy picture from them.

As for trade deals, are there any that the EFTA members have that the UK should be envious of? I'd have thought that the massive bargaining power that the EU had available is going to outweigh anything that an independent UK could negotiate in any case.
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Re: Brexit

#79  Postby mrjonno » Jun 15, 2017 4:35 pm

Rationality and reason - yeah like British politics has any relationship to that these days
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Re: Brexit

#80  Postby Byron » Jun 15, 2017 4:40 pm

Iceland and Norway are mainly concerned with protecting their fishing rights, but given the size of the UK's economy, it may be in a different situation when it comes to trade deals. Customs union's probably out if Britain's gonna cut her own trade deals, but, garlic smuggling aside, Norway and Sweden appear to manage OK.
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