Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#8141  Postby Thommo » Jun 14, 2019 6:31 am

No, it would not. The last two extensions both occurred without re-opening the WA.
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Re: Brexit

#8142  Postby Svartalf » Jun 14, 2019 7:41 am

Thommo wrote:
tuco wrote:Still beyond me what he wants to negotiate and why its being accepted but let's not go there again.


What he wants is simple enough: removing the unlimited nature of the Northern Ireland backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU have said they won't do that. Either one believes them, or they don't. People here believe them, Boris doesn't. Obviously not everyone is right and time is likely to show who that is.

problem is that if anybody tries to close down the Irish border, it will spell TROUBLES all over again... and nobody sane wants that.
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Re: Brexit

#8143  Postby Cito di Pense » Jun 14, 2019 9:33 am

Svartalf wrote:
Thommo wrote:
tuco wrote:Still beyond me what he wants to negotiate and why its being accepted but let's not go there again.


What he wants is simple enough: removing the unlimited nature of the Northern Ireland backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU have said they won't do that. Either one believes them, or they don't. People here believe them, Boris doesn't. Obviously not everyone is right and time is likely to show who that is.

problem is that if anybody tries to close down the Irish border, it will spell TROUBLES all over again... and nobody sane wants that.


Don't be too sure. Sanity doesn't win every time. You have to be kidding yourself to believe that the Troubles are anything but the local manifestation of a general problem.

What's so amazing about Brexit is how much yammering people can do before even one thing is settled, such as whether there is going to be another extension, or not. Whatever is settled doesn't matter. Somebody is not going to like it. It's a sad situation when the majority is not permitted to be heard because the voice of the majority is not necessarily useful, here. There isn't a majority when people don't know what choices they have.
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Re: Brexit

#8144  Postby Svartalf » Jun 14, 2019 9:45 am

Of course there's a general problem, there has been all over the UK ever since James VI inherited the throne of England.
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Re: Brexit

#8145  Postby Cito di Pense » Jun 14, 2019 9:50 am

Svartalf wrote:Of course there's a general problem, there has been all over the UK ever since James VI inherited the throne of England.


That's not a general problem. That's just an excuse.
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Re: Brexit

#8147  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2019 10:27 am

Svartalf wrote:
Thommo wrote:
tuco wrote:Still beyond me what he wants to negotiate and why its being accepted but let's not go there again.


What he wants is simple enough: removing the unlimited nature of the Northern Ireland backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU have said they won't do that. Either one believes them, or they don't. People here believe them, Boris doesn't. Obviously not everyone is right and time is likely to show who that is.

problem is that if anybody tries to close down the Irish border, it will spell TROUBLES all over again... and nobody sane wants that.


That is what I asked few pages ago. In my feeble understanding, and correct me if I am wrong, the Good Friday Agreement obliges the UK to avoid a hard border. It is also the EU stance that the onus to ensure this is on the UK. So I would guess the UK has a solution beyond the one in WA, which the UK does not want to accept. Can we see it?

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Re: Brexit

#8148  Postby mattthomas » Jun 14, 2019 11:54 am

Ironclad wrote:Hello Matt, and exactly where the bloody fuck have you been, sunshine?

Heyyy buddy pal dude... I've been around, just don't post that often cause I'm permanently fucked off and angry and just want to murder lots of people. Best to keep my mouth shut...
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Re: Brexit

#8149  Postby Thommo » Jun 14, 2019 12:22 pm

tuco wrote:That is what I asked few pages ago. In my feeble understanding, and correct me if I am wrong, the Good Friday Agreement obliges the UK to avoid a hard border. It is also the EU stance that the onus to ensure this is on the UK. So I would guess the UK has a solution beyond the one in WA, which the UK does not want to accept. Can we see it?

---
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/b ... -ni_en.pdf


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46988529
What does the Good Friday Agreement say about a hard border?

A lot less than you might think. The only place in which it alludes to infrastructure at the border is in the section on security.

During the Troubles there were heavily fortified army barracks, police stations and watchtowers along the border. They were frequently attacked by Republican paramilitaries.

Part of the peace deal involved the UK government agreeing to a process of removing those installations in what became known as "demilitarisation".

The agreement states that "the development of a peaceful environment... can and should mean a normalisation of security arrangements and practices."

The government committed to "as early a return as possible to normal security arrangements in Northern Ireland, consistent with the level of threat".

That included "the removal of security installations". That is as far as the text goes.

(Worth reading the whole article, other parts are relevant too)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... df#page=13
The Belfast (‘Good Friday’) Agreement included a specific commitment to “the removal of security installations”.25 All military security installations and other infrastructure were removed following the Agreement and the border today is invisible and seamless across its 310 mile/500 km length. As the Irish Government has said, “the disappearance of physical border crossings and checkpoints is both a symbol of, and a dividend from, the success of the peace process”.26


You can read the relevant GFA section here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eement.pdf
SECURITY
1. The participants note that the development of a peaceful environment on the basis of this agreement can and should mean a normalisation of security arrangements and practices.
2. The British Government will make progress towards the objective of as early a return as possible to normal security arrangements in Northern Ireland, consistent with the level of threat and with a published overall strategy, dealing with:
(i) the reduction of the numbers and role of the Armed Forces deployed in Northern Ireland to levels compatible with a normal peaceful society;
(ii) the removal of security installations;
(iii) the removal of emergency powers in Northern Ireland; and
(iv) other measures appropriate to and compatible with a normal peaceful society.
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Re: Brexit

#8150  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 14, 2019 5:20 pm

Here we go again.

Boris Johnson pledges to drop backstop in 'orderly' Brexit plan

Tory leadership frontrunner says he would push for alternative arrangements

Boris Johnson has claimed he can achieve an “orderly, managed Brexit” on deadline by ditching the Northern Irish backstop in favour of “alternative arrangements”.

Giving an extensive BBC interview after facing criticism for ducking media scrutiny, the Conservative leadership frontrunner insisted he was not aiming for a no-deal Brexit.

“I think that we can get to a situation in which we are able to leave smoothly with an orderly, managed Brexit, and that’s what we should be aiming for,” he told the World at One. “But the only way to make sure that we convince our partners that we’re determined to get that outcome is to prepare for no deal – and I think people do understand that.”


WTF. An arse first class.
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Re: Brexit

#8151  Postby Ironclad » Jun 14, 2019 5:41 pm

Tariff free trade, or close to. Why couldn't the UK bring this in to keep the wheels oiled? I'm sure there are some positives to no deal. Can't the UK keep its global trades near enough as they are, just without the EU tag?
:dunno:
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Re: Brexit

#8152  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 14, 2019 5:51 pm

Ironclad wrote:Tariff free trade, or close to. Why couldn't the UK bring this in to keep the wheels oiled? I'm sure there are some positives to no deal. Can't the UK keep its global trades near enough as they are, just without the EU tag?
:dunno:



Presumably most countries would want to renegotiate based on the fact that deals they made with a much larger entity may have required a suite of concessions they'd not need to give a solitary UK.
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Re: Brexit

#8153  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 14, 2019 6:07 pm

I'm not an atheist; I just don't believe in gods :- that which I don't belong to isn't a group!
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Re: Brexit

#8154  Postby Ironclad » Jun 14, 2019 6:50 pm

Spearthrower wrote:
Ironclad wrote:Tariff free trade, or close to. Why couldn't the UK bring this in to keep the wheels oiled? I'm sure there are some positives to no deal. Can't the UK keep its global trades near enough as they are, just without the EU tag?
:dunno:



Presumably most countries would want to renegotiate based on the fact that deals they made with a much larger entity may have required a suite of concessions they'd not need to give a solitary UK.
Can't be all bad
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Re: Brexit

#8155  Postby OlivierK » Jun 14, 2019 9:05 pm

Ironclad wrote:Tariff free trade, or close to. Why couldn't the UK bring this in to keep the wheels oiled? I'm sure there are some positives to no deal. Can't the UK keep its global trades near enough as they are, just without the EU tag?
:dunno:

Trade deals aren't unilateral. The UK could, for example, unilaterally offer my country, Australia, tariff-free access to its market. As long as the UK wanted nothing in return, we couldn't stop that, nor would we want to. But we wouldn't reciprocate without a negotiated agreement.

Frankly, the rest of the world is a bit sick of the UK taking Jeremy Clarkson's trademark oafish "How hard can it be?" approach to things actually known to be hard, like trade agreements or the Irish border.

One of the key things that the you (and the UK generally) seem to be missing is that the UK can not simply decide what its relationships with other countries will be, without consulting other countries. That's not how relationships work. The Irish border is just the most glaring failure in this regard, but the same problem of non-consultation exists across the board.
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Re: Brexit

#8156  Postby ronmcd » Jun 14, 2019 10:35 pm

OlivierK wrote:
Ironclad wrote:Tariff free trade, or close to. Why couldn't the UK bring this in to keep the wheels oiled? I'm sure there are some positives to no deal. Can't the UK keep its global trades near enough as they are, just without the EU tag?
:dunno:

Trade deals aren't unilateral. The UK could, for example, unilaterally offer my country, Australia, tariff-free access to its market. As long as the UK wanted nothing in return, we couldn't stop that, nor would we want to. But we wouldn't reciprocate without a negotiated agreement.

Frankly, the rest of the world is a bit sick of the UK taking Jeremy Clarkson's trademark oafish "How hard can it be?" approach to things actually known to be hard, like trade agreements or the Irish border.

One of the key things that the you (and the UK generally) seem to be missing is that the UK can not simply decide what its relationships with other countries will be, without consulting other countries. That's not how relationships work. The Irish border is just the most glaring failure in this regard, but the same problem of non-consultation exists across the board.


All of this.
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Re: Brexit

#8157  Postby Ironclad » Jun 14, 2019 10:55 pm

"the rest of the world". I see.
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Re: Brexit

#8158  Postby Beatsong » Jun 14, 2019 11:52 pm

OlivierK wrote:Frankly, the rest of the world is a bit sick of the UK taking Jeremy Clarkson's trademark oafish "How hard can it be?" approach to things actually known to be hard, like trade agreements or the Irish border.


That is such a succinct and accurate description of the depth that what passes for political discourse here has sunk to, that I don't whether to laugh or cry.
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Re: Brexit

#8159  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 15, 2019 3:41 am

Ironclad wrote:
Spearthrower wrote:
Presumably most countries would want to renegotiate based on the fact that deals they made with a much larger entity may have required a suite of concessions they'd not need to give a solitary UK.


Can't be all bad



Perhaps, but it's unlikely to be anywhere near as good.
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Re: Brexit

#8160  Postby Thommo » Jun 15, 2019 6:53 am

An article in the Times today (behind a paywall, so most people won't be able to read it) is reporting the EU are expecting extension past October 31 in all circumstances, mentioning in particular technical extension for ratification if the WA is passed in parliament or a technical extension for managed no deal. It's attributed to unnamed officials (i.e. not to the council who actually have the authority to make a decision) so I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Article here if anyone has access:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brex ... -xjs88923s
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