Brexit

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Re: Brexit

#9341  Postby GrahamH » Sep 30, 2019 8:04 am

He added that there was still time for a deal to be done with the EU, and that the government could sign off on such an agreement at a summit in Brussels on Oct. 17-18. If not, the talks would go to the wire, he said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKBN1WE0PP


That is the wire, Mr Gove. The last opportunity to get EU agreement and the last day before UK law obliges the PM to seek an extension.
Why do you think that?
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Re: Brexit

#9342  Postby mrjonno » Sep 30, 2019 12:20 pm

zerne wrote:
aufbahrung wrote:Shorting the people. Betting on a population decline post-brexit to overcome the UK's housing/power deficits and the burden so many place on capital. That's what is really going on. Behind closed doors, where the devious Cummings of the world lurk. They know precisely what they are doing and why. You'd think the public has a say in this reading this thread. How much naivety can there be?


Plenty naive. Positively naïf in fact.

I wouldn't worry about Cummings. He may have the PM's ear, but Parliament has his balls. Gripped firmly, and squeezed 7 times now. The powerless PM with his unlikeable Igor can scheme and plot but cannot actually do much at this point without Parliament scrutinising every detail. Can't even call a General Election. :lol:

Meanwhile:
http://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/413523/brexit-countdown


Cummings is calculating that the enemy of the people rhetoric will cement 40% of the vote with the other 60% divided allowing Johnson to win an overall majority.

Wasn't there a survey showing Johnson would win a General Election even from a jail cell.

The referendum showed that simple moronic slogans work.

Enemy of the people
Will of the people
Get it done
Surrender bill

while complex nuances policies go over the head of much of the population.

In 21st century British politics if you need to think about someone policies then you have already lost
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Re: Brexit

#9343  Postby GrahamH » Sep 30, 2019 2:36 pm

Boris Johnson has lower prime ministerial ratings than Theresa May enjoyed during most of her time as Tory leader, an exclusive Ipsos MORI poll reveals today.
Just 36 per cent of the general public think Mr Johnson is “a capable leader”, compared with 68 per cent who felt the same about Mrs May at her first party conference in September 2016.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslond ... ar-AAI3EoH
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Re: Brexit

#9344  Postby mrjonno » Sep 30, 2019 2:56 pm

GrahamH wrote:
Boris Johnson has lower prime ministerial ratings than Theresa May enjoyed during most of her time as Tory leader, an exclusive Ipsos MORI poll reveals today.
Just 36 per cent of the general public think Mr Johnson is “a capable leader”, compared with 68 per cent who felt the same about Mrs May at her first party conference in September 2016.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslond ... ar-AAI3EoH


Sadly the poll also shows that nearly twice as many people prefer Johnson to Corbyn.

I really wish it wasn't true but Johnson/Cumming's bullshit works which says more about the electorate than anything.

Remember democracy was voted out of existence in Hitler's Germany and we are heading the same way
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Re: Brexit

#9345  Postby mattthomas » Sep 30, 2019 3:46 pm

mrjonno wrote:
GrahamH wrote:
Boris Johnson has lower prime ministerial ratings than Theresa May enjoyed during most of her time as Tory leader, an exclusive Ipsos MORI poll reveals today.
Just 36 per cent of the general public think Mr Johnson is “a capable leader”, compared with 68 per cent who felt the same about Mrs May at her first party conference in September 2016.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslond ... ar-AAI3EoH


Sadly the poll also shows that nearly twice as many people prefer Johnson to Corbyn.

I really wish it wasn't true but Johnson/Cumming's bullshit works which says more about the electorate than anything.

Remember democracy was voted out of existence in Hitler's Germany and we are heading the same way

Yeah, we also had the exact same thing in 2017. When it was predicted that May would romp home with a thumping majority and labour would be totally trounced. This was shortly before Labour kindly relived her of her majority winning 13 million votes.
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Re: Brexit

#9346  Postby ronmcd » Sep 30, 2019 5:04 pm

mattthomas wrote:... Labour kindly relived her of her majority winning 13 million votes.

And it was Labour libdems and Tories behind the scenes tactical voting agreements in Scotland, where getting the SNP is always more important than their own election results, that led to the Tories even retaining a majority. Thanks Labour.
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Re: Brexit

#9347  Postby ronmcd » Sep 30, 2019 8:24 pm

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/stat ... 8647552000

Jeremy Corbyn on opposition talks this afternoon:

""I chair these meetings in the most collegiate way I can....yes there are huge political differences between us but we have come behind this point to stop a no-deal Brexit".


Jo Swinson on opposition tactics:

"I have been crystal clear but I will do so again - Jeremy Corbyn is not going into Number 10 on the basis of Liberal Democrats' votes."
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Re: Brexit

#9348  Postby OlivierK » Sep 30, 2019 11:28 pm

The whole fucking problem with Brexit is that lots of people have very strong ideas about what they don't want, but workable proposals are in seriously short supply, so the UK are careering towards the default result of No Deal.

Swinson is simply taking that same approach to the question of an alternative PM. By focussing on blocking Corbyn without putting up a credible alternative plan, she's increasing the chances that no alternative will get up, and the default leader (Johnson) will be in the chair making the decisions. Or, you know, not making decisions and crashing the UK out without a deal by default.

At this stage, it seems clear that Boris and Dom's cunning plan is to ask for an extension as required by law, while also making clear to the EU that they have no suggested process for negotiation during the extension, and no intention of putting one in place, thus maximising the chances of the EU refusing the extension grudgingly asked for, making Boris a Leaver hero, and the EU left looking like the intransigent bad guys that the UK is well shot of.

The strategy doesn't seem to extend past this, although obviously the very next thing that would happen is that all the elements of the withdrawal agreement - what happens at the ports and Irish border, in particular - would need to be acted upon anyway as matters of practical necessity. The entirely preventable chaos and disorder that followed would guarantee a frosty reception for the UK in trade talks with the EU, especially if the UK was heading down a path on trade with others or regulatory deharmonisation that necessitated a hard land border with Ireland.
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Re: Brexit

#9349  Postby Matt_B » Oct 01, 2019 2:02 am

What the Lib Dems want is a PM who'll get the extension, call a quick election in which they pick up lots of seats, and promptly retire. Corbyn plainly won't fit that last part, at the very least, so it's not exactly rocket science as to why they don't want him.

Ultimately, I'm sure that a compromise will be hammered out behind closed doors, because it's in the interests of all parties to see Johnson fail. Clarke and Beckett have been brought up as likely candidates, but there are as many credible alternatives as the opposition have backbenchers who don't want to stand again.
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Re: Brexit

#9350  Postby Thommo » Oct 01, 2019 3:48 am

Matt_B wrote:What the Lib Dems want is a PM who'll get the extension, call a quick election in which they pick up lots of seats, and promptly retire. Corbyn plainly won't fit that last part, at the very least, so it's not exactly rocket science as to why they don't want him.


It's not, but that isn't why.
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Re: Brexit

#9351  Postby Matt_B » Oct 01, 2019 6:02 am

Thommo wrote:
Matt_B wrote:What the Lib Dems want is a PM who'll get the extension, call a quick election in which they pick up lots of seats, and promptly retire. Corbyn plainly won't fit that last part, at the very least, so it's not exactly rocket science as to why they don't want him.


It's not, but that isn't why.


What explanation would you offer then?
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Re: Brexit

#9352  Postby GrahamH » Oct 01, 2019 7:28 am

Boris Johnson will demand EU leaders rule out a further extension of Article 50 as he reveals his 'game-changing' new Brexit deal 'within the next 24 hours'

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/b ... ar-AAI5nYF


Supposing he has a viable deal, an supposing the EU accepts it at their meeting on 18th, this would be considerable leverage on MPs in an eleventh hour vote on, say, the 29th Oct.

But those are some huge suppositions.
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Re: Brexit

#9353  Postby GrahamH » Oct 01, 2019 8:04 am

The government have come up with a brilliant solution to the Irish border issue. Just locate customs clearance centres miles from the border. This is such brilliant idea they will no doubt implement the same at other border points. They could move the customs at Dover out to Ashford and put up signs asking drivers to kindly make their way to customs. It would ease traffic through the port no end.

What could go wrong?
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Re: Brexit

#9354  Postby Svartalf » Oct 01, 2019 10:20 am

increase in smuggling and maybe even the troubles resuming?
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Re: Brexit

#9355  Postby zerne » Oct 01, 2019 10:55 am

It is ridiculous. We have government at the stage of offering tentative proposals for negotiation that they already know are unworkable and run contrary to the GFA and UK law. It's hardening the border on Ireland. Don't they have any regard for the peace process? That's not the sort of language a PM should be using.

Looks to me like the only "plan" this administration has is to negotiate in bad faith and blame the EU for not capitulating to their unreasonable demands. :nono:
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Re: Brexit

#9356  Postby GrahamH » Oct 01, 2019 10:59 am

It certainly look so far as if BJ is set on a no deal exit
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Re: Brexit

#9357  Postby GrahamH » Oct 01, 2019 11:06 am

Svartalf wrote:increase in smuggling and maybe even the troubles resuming?


It's basically about as much use for securing a market as putting up an honesty box at the side of the road with a notice asking people to put some cash in it for whatever they think they may owe in duty and tariffs. That and another sign asking people to check the labels on any goods they may be carrying to make sure they conform to standards.

I don't see how it could work.
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Re: Brexit

#9358  Postby Svartalf » Oct 01, 2019 11:10 am

zerne wrote:
Looks to me like the only "plan" this administration has is to negotiate in bad faith and blame the EU for not capitulating to their unreasonable demands. :nono:

is this new? I thought everybody on this forum has been aware of this for months, actually, ever since bojo managed to replace mayh
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Re: Brexit

#9359  Postby mattthomas » Oct 01, 2019 11:31 am

ronmcd wrote:
mattthomas wrote:... Labour kindly relived her of her majority winning 13 million votes.

And it was Labour libdems and Tories behind the scenes tactical voting agreements in Scotland, where getting the SNP is always more important than their own election results, that led to the Tories even retaining a majority. Thanks Labour.

I really wish Labour and the SNP would just see each other as what they essentially are, progressive parties for the people; and work together :coffee:
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Re: Brexit

#9360  Postby Thommo » Oct 01, 2019 11:55 am

Matt_B wrote:
Thommo wrote:
Matt_B wrote:What the Lib Dems want is a PM who'll get the extension, call a quick election in which they pick up lots of seats, and promptly retire. Corbyn plainly won't fit that last part, at the very least, so it's not exactly rocket science as to why they don't want him.


It's not, but that isn't why.


What explanation would you offer then?


It would be no more difficult to remove a temporary prime minister than it would to remove Johnson, the same confidence procedure would still exist for Corbyn, or anyone else in that position so there's no need for them to retire or concern that they might not.

For MPs in general, and the Lib Dems specifically, there are two issues of perception regarding installing a Prime Minister without an election, firstly what does the act say (and what have the Lib Dems themselves said about similar acts in the past) and secondly what does installing Corbyn in particular say (and what have the Lib Dems said about that).

If Corbyn is the stumbling block then the first alone clearly isn't a deal breaker for them, although they will know they previously said that a Prime Minister taking over without a general election was objectionable and undemocratic when Theresa May took over from David Cameron in 2016 in much more normal circumstances. What will matter is how Corbyn is perceived among the general public, Lib Dem voters and Lib Dem MPs in particular, and what message installing him will send.

On that front there are two key issues of perception, firstly (whatever name you put on it) his economic views which favour dismantling of capitalism in Britain and secondly the ongoing EHRC inquiry into antisemitism in Labour, which was the proximate cause of a significant proportion of Lib Dem MPs becoming Lib Dem MPs instead of Labour MPs in the first place.
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