Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#9361  Postby zerne » Oct 01, 2019 12:08 pm

mrjonno wrote:
zerne wrote:
aufbahrung wrote:Shorting the people. Betting on a population decline post-brexit to overcome the UK's housing/power deficits and the burden so many place on capital. That's what is really going on. Behind closed doors, where the devious Cummings of the world lurk. They know precisely what they are doing and why. You'd think the public has a say in this reading this thread. How much naivety can there be?


Plenty naive. Positively naïf in fact.

I wouldn't worry about Cummings. He may have the PM's ear, but Parliament has his balls. Gripped firmly, and squeezed 7 times now. The powerless PM with his unlikeable Igor can scheme and plot but cannot actually do much at this point without Parliament scrutinising every detail. Can't even call a General Election. :lol:

Meanwhile:
http://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/413523/brexit-countdown


Cummings is calculating that the enemy of the people rhetoric will cement 40% of the vote with the other 60% divided allowing Johnson to win an overall majority.


If that's what they're aiming for, then alienating a large section of your own MPs and party members only seems to move them further away from that goal. By being more divisive and extreme they narrow their appeal and push a lot of pro-business and pro-EU Conservative voters towards the Lib Dems and when they fail so much in the House, the extremists then drift towards the Brexit Party.

mrjonno wrote:Wasn't there a survey showing Johnson would win a General Election even from a jail cell.

The referendum showed that simple moronic slogans work.

Enemy of the people
Will of the people
Get it done
Surrender bill

while complex nuances policies go over the head of much of the population.

In 21st century British politics if you need to think about someone policies then you have already lost


What a load of bollocks. Brexit is less popular now, and the extreme of no deal Brexit was always the least popular variant of that. The Conservatives are attempting to appeal to a shrinking demographic who are torn between two parties. Three if you count Labour.
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Re: Brexit

#9362  Postby Spearthrower » Oct 01, 2019 12:20 pm

zerne wrote:
What a load of bollocks.


:thumbup:

You could've stopped there.
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Re: Brexit

#9363  Postby mrjonno » Oct 01, 2019 12:50 pm

I think people live in their educated middle class bubbles here, I certainly do as its pretty shit outside but its good to be aware it is a bubble.

Johnson is by far the most popular political leader in the country as the moment, its not even close

Ignoring this is basically putting your fingers in your ears and closing your eyes
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Re: Brexit

#9364  Postby Alan B » Oct 01, 2019 1:48 pm

I dunno. Here we have the Irish border problem and the 'temporary PM' idea taking up all the news space. In the meantime the parliamentarians and the corporations that are 'stealing from the Public Purse' (tax avoidance & Tax Havens) are rubbing their hands with glee since no one is 'shining the light' on them and the real reason for a 'no-deal' Brexit.
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Re: Brexit

#9365  Postby zerne » Oct 01, 2019 1:58 pm

mrjonno wrote:I think people live in their educated middle class bubbles here, I certainly do as its pretty shit outside but its good to be aware it is a bubble.


Ad hominem, even if you are self deprecating about it.

mrjonno wrote:Johnson is by far the most popular political leader in the country as the moment, its not even close


Is he? As i understand it he's got a heavily negative rating, that's steadily worsened. Worse than May, worse than Jo Swinson and Farage too at -23%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election


mrjonno wrote:Ignoring this is basically putting your fingers in your ears and closing your eyes


I cannot ignore something you haven't backed up. Your opinion poll covers Party voting intentions, it helps if you can cite something relevant. :thumbup:
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Re: Brexit

#9366  Postby Sendraks » Oct 01, 2019 2:05 pm

We'll see where Bojo gets to at the end of the month. In the political party polling the Tories remain ahead (largely due to the effective hatchet job the media are doing on everyone else) but, this isn't easy to reconcile with the largely anti-Brexit polling, including polling on the Government's handling of Brexit.

Still, I wouldn't put it past the public not to reconcile this dichotomy and vote Tory under the delusion that eventually the Tories will somehow "get Brexit right."
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Re: Brexit

#9367  Postby Sendraks » Oct 01, 2019 2:07 pm

zerne wrote:

Is he? As i understand it he's got a heavily negative rating, that's steadily worsened. Worse than May, worse than Jo Swinson and Farage too at -23%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election


However, Bojo's disapproval poll is nowhere near as bad as that of Corbyn's (again largely due to the media). So Bojo could well be the turd that floats to the top of the bowl in the event of an election.
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Re: Brexit

#9368  Postby Spearthrower » Oct 01, 2019 2:11 pm

mrjonno wrote:I think people live in their educated middle class bubbles here,...



I think you have a long-standing tendency to extrapolate you onto everyone else.
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Re: Brexit

#9369  Postby zerne » Oct 01, 2019 3:37 pm

Sendraks wrote:
zerne wrote:

Is he? As i understand it he's got a heavily negative rating, that's steadily worsened. Worse than May, worse than Jo Swinson and Farage too at -23%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election


However, Bojo's disapproval poll is nowhere near as bad as that of Corbyn's (again largely due to the media). So Bojo could well be the turd that floats to the top of the bowl in the event of an election.


Corbyn is even less popular and has worked extremely hard to assist the right-leaning media in their portrayal of him as a cranky old goat with little personal charm or clear plans for what Labour would do in event of a successful election result. Their refusal to drop Brexit as a bad idea really hurts them.
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Re: Brexit

#9370  Postby Sendraks » Oct 01, 2019 6:16 pm

zerne wrote:Corbyn is even less popular and has worked extremely hard to assist the right-leaning media in their portrayal of him as a cranky old goat with little personal charm or clear plans for what Labour would do in event of a successful election result. Their refusal to drop Brexit as a bad idea really hurts them.


No, the right wing media have just done a bang up job of misrepresenting him and Labour's position which, as MrJonno has correctly pointed out, doesn't lend itself to sound bites.

Labour and the other political parties, with the exception of the Tories, have been consistent in upholding their 2017 manifesto commitments with regard to Brexit.
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Re: Brexit

#9371  Postby ronmcd » Oct 01, 2019 7:18 pm

There's an element of truth to the idea the right wing media have damaged Corbyn, I guess. But it's mostly down to Labour tbh - Corbyn's apparent lack of having a Brexit policy/trying to play both sides, and Labour's internal suicidal streak over firstly Corbyn's leadership (twice) and then imploding over anti-semitism.
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Re: Brexit

#9372  Postby Thommo » Oct 01, 2019 10:21 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49898289
The claim that these no deal-backing hedge funds are betting against British companies that will falter come 1 November is also hard to find evidence for. The way most hedge funds work is that they take two positions - one long, one short.
...
The widespread acceptance of this current conspiracy theory demonstrates that this rings true for many. But, as yet, there has not been enough evidence produced that a few shadowy financiers are pulling the strings of a no-deal Brexit puppet.
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Re: Brexit

#9373  Postby ronmcd » Oct 01, 2019 10:50 pm

Thommo wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49898289
The claim that these no deal-backing hedge funds are betting against British companies that will falter come 1 November is also hard to find evidence for. The way most hedge funds work is that they take two positions - one long, one short.
...
The widespread acceptance of this current conspiracy theory demonstrates that this rings true for many. But, as yet, there has not been enough evidence produced that a few shadowy financiers are pulling the strings of a no-deal Brexit puppet.

I'm pretty sure that's true. If we end up with no deal it will be because of a host of reasons completely unrelated to market conspiracy theories. Ineptitude and political self-interest in Downing st, reckless arrogance from David Cameron, and decades of EU blaming by politicians and media on all sides, for example.

Maybe I'll open an IG spread betting account myself.
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Re: Brexit

#9374  Postby Thommo » Oct 01, 2019 10:53 pm

Only if you think you can beat the market. :wink:

Sterling's been all over the place today, I'm starting to suspect nobody has insider information, or indeed a clue of any kind as to what the fuck is going on. :whistle:
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Re: Brexit

#9375  Postby Matt_B » Oct 01, 2019 11:12 pm

Thommo wrote:

It would be no more difficult to remove a temporary prime minister than it would to remove Johnson, the same confidence procedure would still exist for Corbyn, or anyone else in that position so there's no need for them to retire or concern that they might not.


No, I mean they want someone who is prepared to stand down as an MP and retire from politics entirely, so they can't use their period as interim PM to further their career.

If Corbyn were prepared to do that, objections to him would disappear very quickly. He's no good reason to though, hence names like Clarke and Beckett being put forward because they probably would.

I don't disagree with the rest of your analysis though. Ultimately they're rival parties who don't want to give each other a potential leg up at their own expense. That shouldn't stop them from achieving the necessary level of cooperation to stop a no deal Brexit, but they're going to take all the opportunities for belligerent posturing that they can get first.
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Re: Brexit

#9376  Postby GrahamH » Oct 02, 2019 6:07 am

Matt_B wrote:

No, I mean they want someone who is prepared to stand down as an MP and retire from politics entirely, so they can't use their period as interim PM to further their career.



Maybe you agree right, but if so it would be a remarkably shabby bit of self interest in the face of a national crisis.
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Re: Brexit

#9377  Postby Matt_B » Oct 02, 2019 7:25 am

GrahamH wrote:
Matt_B wrote:

No, I mean they want someone who is prepared to stand down as an MP and retire from politics entirely, so they can't use their period as interim PM to further their career.



Maybe you agree right, but if so it would be a remarkably shabby bit of self interest in the face of a national crisis.


Yes, it's utterly shabby self interest that they insist that it be someone who won't give any party the advantage and totally selfless of Labour to insist that it's their leader.
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Re: Brexit

#9378  Postby OlivierK » Oct 02, 2019 8:31 am

Labour's leader is the Leader of the Opposition, and Labour do have close to 80% of the seats needed for a majority in this putative future government. It's ludicrous for the Libdem tail to try to wag the dog here, especially as they're the ones saying that they'll do whatever it takes to stop Brexit / No Deal. Do they even have a tenth of the MPs that Labour does?

Swinson keeps asserting that Corbyn wouldn't be able to command the confidence of a majority of MPs if put forward as caretaker PM. That seems highly unlikely to be true unless the LibDems voted against him en bloc. If Johnson survives as a result of the LibDems refusing to back Corbyn, then Swinson's career will be over, and the LibDems will be further damaged at a time when they should be strongly on the rise with their unambiguous backing for Remain.
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Re: Brexit

#9379  Postby ronmcd » Oct 02, 2019 8:37 am

Thommo wrote:Only if you think you can beat the market. :wink:

Sterling's been all over the place today, I'm starting to suspect nobody has insider information, or indeed a clue of any kind as to what the fuck is going on. :whistle:

Don't worry, I'd be as useful in the stock market as Grayling is in politics :smile:
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Re: Brexit

#9380  Postby ronmcd » Oct 02, 2019 8:44 am

It's the Leader of the Opposition who should reasonably get the first try, I would think.

But we know the libdems under Swinson have politics in mind, because they're ON THE UP, BABY!

Lib Dems' secret plan for general election victory is called 'Project 320'

Lib Dem chiefs believe they can win an unprecedented Commons majority with a secret “Project 320” plan.

Party leader Jo Swinson has written to members outlining how she believes it can become the biggest group in Parliament and propel her to No10.

Headed “confidential briefing … building a liberal majority”, the leaflet begging activists for cash reveals a plot to scoop 320 Westminster seats at the looming ballot and give the party an outright majority.

“We will be fighting the General Election win... From our strengthened position in the polls, we can challenge to win a General Election,” says the document.

“We go into a 2019 General Election in our strongest ever position – largest ever membership, best ever EU Election results, best ever council election results and having won the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election cutting Boris Johnson ’s majority to just one.”

A separate letter adds: “Winning and seizing the opportunity we face will take a campaign effort the likes of which we have never seen before - and by joining Team 320, you’ll be a key part of making that liberal majority a reality.”
Pleading with supporters to inject funds, the letter says a £100-a-month gift would help the party “produce canvassing packs to knock on 4,000 doors in a constituency every month”.
Far from being in its “strongest ever position”, the party trails the Conservatives and Labour in national polls.

It has just 18 MPs – six of whom are defectors originally elected for Labour or the Tories.


lol
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