Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#9461  Postby mattthomas » Oct 08, 2019 11:29 am

OlivierK wrote:Agreement is not impossible, for fuck's sake, even May managed it.

Here's two things they could get agreement on tomorrow:
1) UK stays in customs union and single market, Norway style.
2) UK fucks off, but NI has special status remaining in single market and customs union, with border checks at Irish Sea ports.

What's impossible is unicorn Brexit based on contradictory red lines, which is hardly fucking news.

That is literally the issue... what was promised is not deliverable, what is deliverable is unacceptable :what:
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Re: Brexit

#9462  Postby Svartalf » Oct 08, 2019 11:59 am

Agreement IS impossible, so long as bojo's in charge and "negociating" in bad faith
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Re: Brexit

#9463  Postby Thomas Eshuis » Oct 08, 2019 12:01 pm

OlivierK wrote:Agreement is not impossible, for fuck's sake, even May managed it.

Here's two things they could get agreement on tomorrow:
1) UK stays in customs union and single market, Norway style.
2) UK fucks off, but NI has special status remaining in single market and customs union, with border checks at Irish Sea ports.

What's impossible is unicorn Brexit based on contradictory red lines, which is hardly fucking news.

But it's so much easier to pretend you're negotiating and then pretend the EU blew up those pretend negotiations.......
"Respect for personal beliefs = "I am going to tell you all what I think of YOU, but don't dare retort and tell what you think of ME because...it's my personal belief". Hmm. A bully's charter and no mistake."
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Re: Brexit

#9464  Postby OlivierK » Oct 08, 2019 12:35 pm

mattthomas wrote:
OlivierK wrote:Agreement is not impossible, for fuck's sake, even May managed it.

Here's two things they could get agreement on tomorrow:
1) UK stays in customs union and single market, Norway style.
2) UK fucks off, but NI has special status remaining in single market and customs union, with border checks at Irish Sea ports.

What's impossible is unicorn Brexit based on contradictory red lines, which is hardly fucking news.

That is literally the issue... what was promised is not deliverable, what is deliverable is unacceptable :what:

And as I said, that's hardly fucking news, that we need to learn from a leak from Number 10, is it?

And yet, May got agreement for her WA, albeit only by offering to kick the contradictions down the road.
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Re: Brexit

#9465  Postby Agi Hammerthief » Oct 08, 2019 1:21 pm

just what is wrong about keeping NI in the customs union?
Before the common market and Shengen, Austria had a valley which was coupled to Germany „Zollanschlußgebiet“ as the only road in and out was from Germany.
They had Deutschmark and no border control. Arrested people where flown out by helicopter.
* my (modified) emphasis ( or 'interpretation' )

try not to overthink my posts: I have an attention span of about 15 minutes.
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Re: Brexit

#9466  Postby Svartalf » Oct 08, 2019 1:31 pm

well, on one hand the rabid NI unionists don't want your frigging customs union, then, doing that would in a degree put NI outside the UK and give them an anomalous status.
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Re: Brexit

#9467  Postby GrahamH » Oct 08, 2019 1:41 pm

Britain's budget deficit is likely to more than double to around 100 billion pounds if the country leaves the European Union without a deal, quickly requiring a return to austerity, a leading think-tank said on Tuesday.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies predicted borrowing would rise to 92 billion pounds - equivalent to 4% of national income - by 2021/22 under a “relatively benign” no-deal Brexit scenario, in which there are no major delays at borders.
Even then, the economy would still enter recession in 2020, the IFS said in an annual assessment of the public finances.
If the government undertook enough fiscal stimulus to stop the economy contracting - roughly 23 billion pounds of extra spending in 2020 and 2021 - annual borrowing would peak at 102 billion pounds

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKBN1WM2DO


Bravo Boris, keep up the spending promises and promises to EU members who kick us out. It doesn't look like you'll have any funds to do anything much.
Why do you think that?
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Re: Brexit

#9469  Postby Thomas Eshuis » Oct 08, 2019 2:32 pm

Agi Hammerthief wrote:just what is wrong about keeping NI in the customs union?
Before the common market and Shengen, Austria had a valley which was coupled to Germany „Zollanschlußgebiet“ as the only road in and out was from Germany.
They had Deutschmark and no border control. Arrested people where flown out by helicopter.

They also did not have a recent history of religious sectarian violence.....
"Respect for personal beliefs = "I am going to tell you all what I think of YOU, but don't dare retort and tell what you think of ME because...it's my personal belief". Hmm. A bully's charter and no mistake."
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Re: Brexit

#9470  Postby GrahamH » Oct 08, 2019 2:45 pm

Thomas Eshuis wrote:
Agi Hammerthief wrote:just what is wrong about keeping NI in the customs union?
Before the common market and Shengen, Austria had a valley which was coupled to Germany „Zollanschlußgebiet“ as the only road in and out was from Germany.
They had Deutschmark and no border control. Arrested people where flown out by helicopter.

They also did not have a recent history of religious sectarian violence.....


And all the less recent history between Ireland and Britain. It's not all about religion.
Why do you think that?
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Re: Brexit

#9471  Postby Ironclad » Oct 08, 2019 7:39 pm

If some people could just behave themselves..
For Van Youngman - see you amongst the stardust, old buddy

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Re: Brexit

#9472  Postby Thomas Eshuis » Oct 08, 2019 9:51 pm

GrahamH wrote:
Thomas Eshuis wrote:
Agi Hammerthief wrote:just what is wrong about keeping NI in the customs union?
Before the common market and Shengen, Austria had a valley which was coupled to Germany „Zollanschlußgebiet“ as the only road in and out was from Germany.
They had Deutschmark and no border control. Arrested people where flown out by helicopter.

They also did not have a recent history of religious sectarian violence.....


And all the less recent history between Ireland and Britain. It's not all about religion.

True, never meant to imply it was.
"Respect for personal beliefs = "I am going to tell you all what I think of YOU, but don't dare retort and tell what you think of ME because...it's my personal belief". Hmm. A bully's charter and no mistake."
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Re: Brexit

#9473  Postby minininja » Oct 11, 2019 8:26 pm

Johnson's major U-turn sets up 48 hours to clinch Brexit deal

EU gives go-ahead to weekend meetings after PM appears to backtrack on customs stance

Boris Johnson has signalled that he will make a last-ditch U-turn on his plans for the Irish border, setting up 48 hours of intense negotiations that will make or break a Brexit deal.

On a day of rapid movement in talks, EU sources said the prime minister had conceded that there could not be a customs border on the island of Ireland – a critical step away from his previous position.

That came after European ambassadors prompted tentative hope of a deal by giving the green light for what some diplomats described as a “tunnel” discussion in which a small team of negotiators meet for intensive talks to find a break-through moment. The Democratic Unionist party and European Research Group (ERG), a group of rightwing Conservatives, later issued statements promising flexibility, keeping hope alive that Johnson could find support for a new offer in the House of Commons.


What's every one betting on?

A) Border controls down the Irish sea so NI stays in customs union
B) Whole of UK stays in customs union
C) A combination of A and B so NI is completely in customs union and rest of UK is closely but not completely aligned to minimise border controls down the Irish sea
D) Johnson is just dragging it out further but will revert to blaming the EU and pushing for No Deal by the end of the weekend
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: Brexit

#9474  Postby Svartalf » Oct 11, 2019 8:28 pm

If I analyze the situation correctly, D seems to be closer to reality, the other three may happen bu BoJo will have to be dragged screaming into them, or maybe his successor will.
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Re: Brexit

#9475  Postby OlivierK » Oct 11, 2019 9:44 pm

I reckon A is most likely. C is more sensible, but I reckon Johnson's calculus would be that it would be more politically damaging than simply selling the DUP out. Since he blew his own majority, the DUP aren't nearly as influential as they used to be.
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Re: Brexit

#9476  Postby ronmcd » Oct 12, 2019 8:01 pm

Interesting and worrying thread from the Economics Editor of the FT:

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/ ... 6382645249
If we're moving towards a fudged NI backstop Brexit deal with a standard UK free trade agreement, thread on the economic effects

tl:dr Johnson's is a much HARDER Brexit than May's

- UK government thinks this will end up making us ALL £2,250 A YEAR POORER

Read on for why

1/
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Re: Brexit

#9477  Postby ronmcd » Oct 12, 2019 8:02 pm

Although the deal looks in trouble in any case

DUP’s Nigel Dodds rejects double customs Brexit solution: “It cannot work”

The DUP deputy leader tells La Repubblica he considers mooted proposals unrealistic: “Northern Ireland must stay in a full UK Customs Union. PM Johnson knows that...”

https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2019/1 ... 238366257/
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Re: Brexit

#9478  Postby OlivierK » Oct 12, 2019 11:37 pm

ronmcd wrote:Although the deal looks in trouble in any case

DUP’s Nigel Dodds rejects double customs Brexit solution: “It cannot work”

The DUP deputy leader tells La Repubblica he considers mooted proposals unrealistic: “Northern Ireland must stay in a full UK Customs Union. PM Johnson knows that...”

https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2019/1 ... 238366257/

DUP aren't going to have the balance of power forever, and their influence is already diminished by the loss of a Tory/DUP majority.
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Re: Brexit

#9479  Postby ronmcd » Oct 13, 2019 6:17 pm

OlivierK wrote:
ronmcd wrote:Although the deal looks in trouble in any case

DUP’s Nigel Dodds rejects double customs Brexit solution: “It cannot work”

The DUP deputy leader tells La Repubblica he considers mooted proposals unrealistic: “Northern Ireland must stay in a full UK Customs Union. PM Johnson knows that...”

https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2019/1 ... 238366257/

DUP aren't going to have the balance of power forever, and their influence is already diminished by the loss of a Tory/DUP majority.

True, and thank fuck. I can't think of a group of politicians with less integrity given such disproportionate levels of influence over so many people.
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Re: Brexit

#9480  Postby GrahamH » Oct 15, 2019 5:01 pm

With BJ looking like he is compromising a lot I wonder if a lot of Leavers are about to see the light and demand a "people's vote" because they don't like this flavour of Brexit.

I also wonder if this is a scam to get a deal through parliament (with a nod and a wink to DUP and ERG) to avoid the Benn act only to crash out on Halloween because the enabling legislation is not in place.
Why do you think that?
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