Brexit

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Brexit

#1  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 8:39 am

Well it is not looking well.

EU threatens year-long delay in Brexit talks over UK's negotiating stance


Exclusive: May to be told it would take 12 months to draft new mandate if she insists on discussing trade and divorce bill at same time


Theresa May is to be told the EU will take a year to draft a new mandate for its chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, effectively killing the Brexit negotiations, if she insists on discussing a future trade relationship at the same time as the UK’s divorce bill.

In a sign of growing impatience with the shambolic state of the British side of the talks, senior EU sources said that if London insisted on talking about a free trade deal before the issues of its divorce bill, citizens rights and the border in Ireland were sufficiently resolved, it would be met with a blunt response.

“If they don’t accept the phased negotiations then we will take a year to draw up a new set of negotiating guidelines for Barnier,” one senior EU diplomat said, adding that the EU could not understand Britain’s continued claim that it would be able to discuss trade and the divorce terms in parallel.

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She has not got a clue. The EU holds the cards.
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Re: Brexit

#2  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 8:46 am

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Re: Brexit

#3  Postby mrjonno » Jun 12, 2017 9:15 am

Isn't that softening of the EU position, they originally said they wouldn't do parallel talks at all?
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Re: Brexit

#4  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 9:34 am

You would have to wait 12 months to find out. Time that the UK has not got.
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Re: Brexit

#5  Postby CarlPierce » Jun 12, 2017 9:45 am

They are going to do such a number on the UK. Dressed up as being perfectly reasonable.
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Re: Brexit

#6  Postby tuco » Jun 12, 2017 9:51 am

I do not think it weakens the EU position as it can ask for something in return, while not giving up anything. Position of the EU is strong and stable unlike the position of the UK.

From the article:

Elmar Brok, a senior MEP in Germany’s ruling centre-right party, said the EU would be open-minded if Britain reneged on its pledge to come out of the single market and the customs union following the election result. “We are open to everything from internal market and customs union to a free trade agreement. It depends on the flexibility of the British government. We want to keep the damage of Brexit low,” he said.


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Re: Brexit

#7  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 10:07 am

The EU is the one holding all the cards. The UK has little choice. Keep going against the EU's wishes and it will be delay ending up with no agreement which is dawning on the Brexiteers is not the right choice.
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Re: Brexit

#8  Postby tuco » Jun 12, 2017 11:31 am

The EU is also not pleased with the UK leaving, tho cant do anything about it but to accept it, and this is not hysterical and violent divorce nor even one time rip-off deal. Business wants business as usual, strong and stable.
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Re: Brexit

#9  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 11:46 am

This was a question in the Labour watch thread I answered it here.

Beatsong wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:
chairman bill wrote:
Byron wrote:In pledging to keep "the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" and end free movement, Labour's promising two incompatible goals. The EU's clear: the only way the UK keeps EEA perks is by accepting the Four Freedoms; and they'll not budge. One or the other must give. With Labour, I expect it'd be free movement, but a coalition will ensure that.


The benefits of the single market doesn't mean being in the single market. It would be interesting to know what Corbyn et al.'s thinking is on this.


So how do you get the benefits without paying for them?


You do pay for them. Nobody's suggesting you don't have to pay for them. But if you're willing to settle for 80% of the benefits, you might be able to only pay 80% of the price.


I doubt if the EU would agree to anything like it.

May wanted a mandate for a hard Brexit. Now Europe expects a softer tone

This so true:

But a softer Brexit could mean introducing only modest curbs on free movement, staying in EU regulatory agencies and avoiding a dogmatic rejection of any role for the European court of justice (ECJ). It could even mean maintaining the customs union. There would then be no need for controls and perhaps queues on the EU-UK border – or for customs posts between the north and south of Ireland. But the UK would have to adopt EU tariffs and could not negotiate its own free trade agreements with countries outside the EU. Staying in the customs union would madden the Tory right as much as it would please businesses.

The shape of Brexit, of course, does not depend only on the UK. EU leaders want a deal, but believe they can insist on their terms, since no deal would damage the UK far more than the continent. They would be happy if the UK sought a softer Brexit, which would be less disruptive for their economies. But they will stick to their principles: the single market must include free movement of people and the jurisdiction of the ECJ; Britain must not “cherry-pick” parts of the market, lest it undermine the EU’s institutional and legal coherence; and life outside the EU must be visibly less agreeable than membership. The EU will make it clear that if you want more economic integration, you must give up sovereignty.


I can hardly see the Brexiteers accepting these terms can you?
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Re: Brexit

#10  Postby chairman bill » Jun 12, 2017 11:54 am

The Brexiteers might have no choice. It's all going horribly wrong for them.

One big mistake they've made is in assuming that Brexit means Brexit. It's tautologitous bollocks. Remain was simple - we just stay in the EU. Brexit meant 'fuck the forrin bastards!', 'Ooh, £350 million a week for the NHS sounds good', 'I'll just give the establishment a bit of a fright', 'I don't want straight bananas!', and eleventy thousand other things.

As time goes on, more and more people are coming to realise that a Tory/UKIP 'hard Brexit' is not in our collective interest. The swivel-eyed xenophobes will never accept anything less than a diamond-hard Brexit; but they're a minority.
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Re: Brexit

#11  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 12:05 pm

I entirely agree Bill but I cant see the Three Stooges supported again by Gove will accept it.
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Re: Brexit

#12  Postby Fallible » Jun 12, 2017 1:24 pm

The time when it was their call what to accept has ended. They start toadying up pretty soon or they're out of there the next time we get the chance. To be honest, it's probably already too late for them.
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Re: Brexit

#13  Postby Shrunk » Jun 12, 2017 2:31 pm

Question: Say Corbyn, or someone else opposed to Brexit, takes over as PM. What's to stop them from just doing nothing about Brexit and in effect keeping things going as is?
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Re: Brexit

#14  Postby BlackBart » Jun 12, 2017 2:38 pm

It's almost like 'found footage' politics - you know it's not going to end well for any of them.

May is going to end up standing in the corner of a cellar or huddled up next to Michael Gove under a bridge in Central park.
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Re: Brexit

#15  Postby ronmcd » Jun 12, 2017 2:57 pm

Shrunk wrote:Question: Say Corbyn, or someone else opposed to Brexit, takes over as PM. What's to stop them from just doing nothing about Brexit and in effect keeping things going as is?

That might have worked before article 50 had been triggered, that's the legal procedure. We now have a set period of negotiations, and at the end ... we're out.

If we don't negotiate, we're still out.
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Re: Brexit

#16  Postby Byron » Jun 12, 2017 3:04 pm

ronmcd wrote:
Shrunk wrote:Question: Say Corbyn, or someone else opposed to Brexit, takes over as PM. What's to stop them from just doing nothing about Brexit and in effect keeping things going as is?

That might have worked before article 50 had been triggered, that's the legal procedure. We now have a set period of negotiations, and at the end ... we're out.

If we don't negotiate, we're still out.

Possibly. Article 50 may be unilaterally revocable (its author thinks so), and the EU's negotiating guidelines make provision for a withdrawal of Brexit, albeit with the EU's consent.

Politically, many in the EU don't want the UK to go, and hardly anyone in power (if any) wants it to leave the EEA. Some kinda fudge whereby the UK's parked in a de facto associate membership may well be feasible: alternatively, if Brexit pushes ahead, either the EFTA or Swiss-style bilaterals after a protracted interim period.
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Re: Brexit

#17  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 3:07 pm

ronmcd wrote:
Shrunk wrote:Question: Say Corbyn, or someone else opposed to Brexit, takes over as PM. What's to stop them from just doing nothing about Brexit and in effect keeping things going as is?

That might have worked before article 50 had been triggered, that's the legal procedure. We now have a set period of negotiations, and at the end ... we're out.

If we don't negotiate, we're still out.


Exactly! It is something that is very lost on Brexiteers. They have a very inflated view of Britain's position in the world. Even NATO is talking about reducing Britain's position in the organisation.
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Re: Brexit

#18  Postby Byron » Jun 12, 2017 3:08 pm

chairman bill wrote:The Brexiteers might have no choice. It's all going horribly wrong for them.

One big mistake they've made is in assuming that Brexit means Brexit. It's tautologitous bollocks. Remain was simple - we just stay in the EU. Brexit meant 'fuck the forrin bastards!', 'Ooh, £350 million a week for the NHS sounds good', 'I'll just give the establishment a bit of a fright', 'I don't want straight bananas!', and eleventy thousand other things.

As time goes on, more and more people are coming to realise that a Tory/UKIP 'hard Brexit' is not in our collective interest. The swivel-eyed xenophobes will never accept anything less than a diamond-hard Brexit; but they're a minority.

Starmer's already pushing the EEA option as much as he's able, although given the flux in Labour, he may well "clarify" within a few hours. Regardless, since the overwhelmingly-Remain establishment now scent their chance, the calls can only grow.
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Re: Brexit

#19  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 12, 2017 3:10 pm

Remember the Art 50 clock is ticking.
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Re: Brexit

#20  Postby chairman bill » Jun 12, 2017 3:26 pm

The best move the Tories could make now is cancel Article 50 and stop all non-EU immigration. May could announce that she's negotiated such a good deal that we must stay, as the deal cuts immigration by over 50%, whilst giving us continued access to the single market and all other benefits of membership. And we just stay in the EU. Job done. Then gradually review the immigration rules.
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