Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#41  Postby tuco » Jun 13, 2017 10:34 pm

Alright but whether the UK citizens will be I dunno 10% richer or poorer is not the end of the world is it? IMO at the end of the day, its even not much relevant for most who got more important issues to solve than whether to buy new <thing> in <insert time> or <insert time + 10%>. Crash, murder, apocalypse .. lets be realistic.
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Re: Brexit

#42  Postby mrjonno » Jun 14, 2017 8:26 am

I could survive being 10% poorer ie a 10% pay cut, it would hurt but probably a majority couldn't. The margins for survival for most are not that great
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Re: Brexit

#43  Postby zulumoose » Jun 14, 2017 8:48 am

10% poorer for many means selling the house, in a market where values are crashing because others are in the same boat, so it may not be possible to sell for more than is owed, which means losing the house to the bank. In such a market rentals may increase in value as demand for affordable rentals increases, so Joe soap may lose the house and then still have to rent with payments close to what would have kept the house, but now he has a bad credit rating, so he can't get vehicle finance when he has to replace the car....

All generalisations, but not exaggerations, that sort of thing happens easily, it only takes a few % to hit the middle class hard, people usually live closer to the edge than they will admit to themselves.
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Re: Brexit

#44  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 14, 2017 8:48 am

Anything but remaining will be a disaster and even that will require accepting new conditions. The UK has fucked itself and all those privileges it had will be gone. If the 27, and that is a massive if, accept the cancellation of art 50 there will be conditions attached like the Euro and Schengen and why not?
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Re: Brexit

#45  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2017 8:56 am

zulumoose wrote:10% poorer for many means selling the house, in a market where values are crashing because others are in the same boat, so it may not be possible to sell for more than is owed, which means losing the house to the bank. In such a market rentals may increase in value as demand for affordable rentals increases, so Joe soap may lose the house and then still have to rent with payments close to what would have kept the house, but now he has a bad credit rating, so he can't get vehicle finance when he has to replace the car....

All generalisations, but not exaggerations, that sort of thing happens easily, it only takes a few % to hit the middle class hard, people usually live closer to the edge than they will admit to themselves.


How do you figure it means selling the house? Could you show some hypothetical budget because I cant imagine it.

Obviously, if everyone gets 10% poorer, products and services everyone produces will get 10% cheaper so it evens out.
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Re: Brexit

#46  Postby mrjonno » Jun 14, 2017 9:10 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:Anything but remaining will be a disaster and even that will require accepting new conditions. The UK has fucked itself and all those privileges it had will be gone. If the 27, and that is a massive if, accept the cancellation of art 50 there will be conditions attached like the Euro and Schengen and why not?


Being part of the EEA will be stupid compared to where we are at the moment but it wouldn't be a disaster, we would have to obey EU rules but as they seem to be a lot more competent at regulations than we are it wouldn't be the end of the world

I still don't get governments talking about the NHS and economic plans when a cliff edge brexit means there won't be an NHS (private or public)
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Re: Brexit

#47  Postby Matt_B » Jun 14, 2017 9:14 am

tuco wrote:How do you figure it means selling the house? Could you show some hypothetical budget because I cant imagine it.

Obviously, if everyone gets 10% poorer, products and services everyone produces will get 10% cheaper so it evens out.


Not necessarily, as these things aren't that tightly coupled. In particular, the UK is heavily reliant upon imported goods and services, so people living in the country may have to bear the costs of rising prices, while simultaneously suffering from a decline in nominal income.
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Re: Brexit

#48  Postby zulumoose » Jun 14, 2017 9:23 am

How do you figure it means selling the house?


People often buy to the maximum repayments they can afford, rather than being cautious. This means when they are under pressure for a while (having kids who grow up and becoming more expensive) they cut back on everything else they can afford and get close to the edge, so when the economy suffers a bit interest rates go up, which means they now have to pay more, and if they lose 10% income on top of that or are out of work for a while they are pretty much finished. If they see property values falling they may panic and sell to avoid values dropping below what they still owe, which is what fuels rapid price drops in the first place, a slippery slope.
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Re: Brexit

#49  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2017 9:27 am

Can you present a hypothetical budget which at 10% less would constitute necessarily selling a house? Because I am fairly confident I would find 10% in such budget to be saved elsewhere.

Besides, I said .. for most .. so that takes care of all objections.
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Re: Brexit

#50  Postby Matt_B » Jun 14, 2017 9:33 am

zulumoose wrote:
How do you figure it means selling the house?


People often buy to the maximum repayments they can afford, rather than being cautious. This means when they are under pressure for a while (having kids who grow up and becoming more expensive) they cut back on everything else they can afford and get close to the edge, so when the economy suffers a bit interest rates go up, which means they now have to pay more, and if they lose 10% income on top of that or are out of work for a while they are pretty much finished. If they see property values falling they may panic and sell to avoid values dropping below what they still owe, which is what fuels rapid price drops in the first place, a slippery slope.


It's not just a case of being cautious or not. In much of the UK you're probably going to have to borrow between five and ten times an average salary in order to buy a home, because there's literally nothing available for less than that. That'd be considered extreme overstretch in much of the world, but is possible because interest rates have been kept very low for a long time. It makes for a very delicate applecart that no government can afford to upset.
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Re: Brexit

#51  Postby zulumoose » Jun 14, 2017 10:08 am

Yes I remember in the Thatcher era one of the things people were panicking about was that they had bought property on the assumption that inflation would increase their salaries and make their repayments more affordable, so when inflation dropped, it meant they stayed on the edge, and they blamed Thatcher for DECREASING INFLATION!!

You just can't win when people are walking that fine line, what's good for the economy can still get you in trouble.
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Re: Brexit

#52  Postby tuco » Jun 14, 2017 10:25 am

Well, as I like to say: in Europe people do not die from hunger so I do not see the said 10%, pulled out of thin air, as disaster.

This is what I was responding to:

mrjonno wrote:Trying to get an impossible deal and knowing it is with the EU is as close as possible to deliberately choosing to crash the UK economy. It's manslaughter at least if not murder of the UK


Crash UK economy, manslaughter if not murder. What is this? Theater?
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Re: Brexit

#53  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 14, 2017 11:12 am

mrjonno wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Anything but remaining will be a disaster and even that will require accepting new conditions. The UK has fucked itself and all those privileges it had will be gone. If the 27, and that is a massive if, accept the cancellation of art 50 there will be conditions attached like the Euro and Schengen and why not?


Being part of the EEA will be stupid compared to where we are at the moment but it wouldn't be a disaster, we would have to obey EU rules but as they seem to be a lot more competent at regulations than we are it wouldn't be the end of the world

I still don't get governments talking about the NHS and economic plans when a cliff edge brexit means there won't be an NHS (private or public)


That is what really gets me just now; May et al are just continuing on as if nothing had happened or nothing is going to happen. It is just unbelievable. :roll:
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Re: Brexit

#54  Postby Matt_B » Jun 14, 2017 11:45 am

Scot Dutchy wrote:That is what really gets me just now; May et al are just continuing on as if nothing had happened or nothing is going to happen. It is just unbelievable. :roll:


That's probably because "nothing" is precisely what will happen if they can't come to some sort of accommodation with the DUP, which is predictably taking some time. It's a cock-up of their own making, for sure, but their hands are utterly tied for the time being because without a deal Brexit talks are off; and she sure as hell doesn't want to announce that.
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Re: Brexit

#55  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 14, 2017 1:06 pm

That is for sure and the clock keeps on ticking.
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Re: Brexit

#56  Postby Byron » Jun 14, 2017 4:35 pm

And as predicted, Brussels (well, Guy Verhofstadt, if there's a difference) says that staying will cost the UK its budget rebate.

The longer the British govt. pushes Fantasy Brexit, the higher the risk that Brexit could collapse completely, and the UK end up even deeper into the EU than it is already. The headbangers, being headbangers, may well end up achieving the precise opposite of their demands.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
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Re: Brexit

#57  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 14, 2017 5:09 pm

Well the UK can get back in but at a cost:

“I agree,” he said. “But like Alice in Wonderland, not all the doors are the same. It will be a brand new door, with a new Europe, a Europe without rebates, without complexity, with real powers and with unity.”
....
The UK also enjoys a permanent opt-out from joining the single currency and can pick and choose on some justice and police policies – special arrangements that irritate some politicians who think they make the EU too complicated.


The UK is fucked both ways. The old days are gone.
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Re: Brexit

#58  Postby Byron » Jun 14, 2017 5:19 pm

Euro opt-out should be salvageable (if only via the Sweedish loophole), and Ireland's got an interest in keeping the Schengen opt-out. As for the rest, doesn't look promising.
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Re: Brexit

#59  Postby fisherman » Jun 14, 2017 5:37 pm

Byron wrote:And as predicted, Brussels (well, Guy Verhofstadt, if there's a difference) says that staying will cost the UK its budget rebate.

The longer the British govt. pushes Fantasy Brexit, the higher the risk that Brexit could collapse completely, and the UK end up even deeper into the EU than it is already. The headbangers, being headbangers, may well end up achieving the precise opposite of their demands.


I read that as a kind and helpful and guiding nudge towards the EEA.

Politicians really need to start rubbishing the idea that EEA is the same as the EU.
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