Brexit

The talks and negotiations.

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Re: Brexit

#8101  Postby tuco » Jun 13, 2019 10:59 am

That someone wants to leave the EU, for whatever reason, I can respect. It does not explain, at least to me, why bluffing with an empty hand is being accepted. If Mr Johnson says: I will lead the UK out of the EU, but I do not aim for no-deal Brexit (which I believe he says), then he should have a plan and he should make it known. He did not make it known. From what I've read, he is promising unicorns (the EU is consistent that the only deal there is is the one on the table) again, as Scot Dutchy notes in almost every post, promising to get another deal. How come this is being accepted, again? It is really arrogance or just stupidity or naivety or does he know something we do not? I just do not get it.
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Re: Brexit

#8102  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 13, 2019 11:02 am

How come this is being accepted, again?


The question really is: who says it's being accepted?

It's not like the leadership contest is going to occur in the public arena. Those who are actually voting have a whole slew of reasons they may or may not care whether the oaf has a plan or not.
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Re: Brexit

#8103  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 13, 2019 11:05 am

Money!
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Re: Brexit

#8104  Postby tuco » Jun 13, 2019 11:07 am

But he has to be voted in by Conservative party members, correct me if I am wrong. Why is it being accepted by them, respectively those who intend to vote for him? Because they themselves have vested interests, money? Why he just does not say that he aims for no-deal Brexit?

---
edit: So far this thesis:

ronmcd wrote:Some journos are of the opinion PM Johnson's no-deal principles (if that's the right word) will last just long enough to become PM. Then who knows what he will do.

I'm leaning towards the idea Johnson will win, then find Parliament do everything to stop no deal, he will be forced into having a general election, and will then win a majority with the support of the Farage Party.

What fun.


is something I can remotely understand. So it's just a political gamble?
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Re: Brexit

#8105  Postby Matt_B » Jun 13, 2019 11:12 am

tuco wrote:But he has to be voted in by Conservative party members, correct me if I am wrong. Why is it being accepted by them? Because they themselves have vested interests, money? Why he just does not say that he aims for no-deal Brexit?


It's more complicated than that. There'll be a series of votes that take place between the party's MPs first, eliminating the lowest placed candidate each round, although additional candidates may decide to drop out if they think they've little chance of success.

Only when they're down to the last two candidates will it go to a vote between party members, and even at that stage they could potentially be denied a vote if one of the two candidates were to drop out.

As such, we can expect the MPs to vote tactically and game the field which the members get to vote on, and quite possibly deny them a vote at all.
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Re: Brexit

#8106  Postby Scot Dutchy » Jun 13, 2019 11:21 am

There is also the possibility than one of the two candidates left is a "stalking horse".
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Re: Brexit

#8107  Postby Thommo » Jun 13, 2019 12:23 pm

Johnson just secured more than one third of the votes in the first round, that means that unless people actively stop supporting him in later rounds he's guaranteed a place in the run off vote between party members. Given his overwhelming support among them, he's more or less guaranteed to be Prime Minister.

What a sorry state of affairs.
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Re: Brexit

#8108  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 13, 2019 12:40 pm

tuco wrote:But he has to be voted in by Conservative party members, correct me if I am wrong. Why is it being accepted by them, respectively those who intend to vote for him? Because they themselves have vested interests, money? Why he just does not say that he aims for no-deal Brexit?


Well, first of all it stands to be tested whether they accept it or not. Certainly, there's a contingent aligned with the oaf who have been pushing for a no deal Brexit from the outset.

Secondly, there are a large contingent that don't care whether there's a deal or not; they just want Brexit and know they can block anything they don't want to happen.

Thirdly, if he said he aims for a no deal Brexit then he'd lose more support than he stands to gain.

Finally, vested interests and political expediency. It might not be as simple as 'money' although it's likely that some will benefit from a no deal Brexit. There could be any number of MP's who don't give a toss either way, but can try and get concessions they do want for their support.
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Re: Brexit

#8109  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 13, 2019 12:43 pm

Thommo wrote:Given his overwhelming support among them, he's more or less guaranteed to be Prime Minister.


Sadly, I predicted this last year, albeit expecting it to have happened sooner. Probably the most ridiculous thing ever to have happened in British politics. Johnson's not fit for any office, let alone the highest in the land.

The one silver lining is that a BoJo win could spell a party split, and the end of Conservative reign over England. That's something that might make all this worthwhile! :lol:
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Re: Brexit

#8110  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 13, 2019 12:50 pm

https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/20 ... _3232.html

Spot on.

Maybe Svartalf can do a quicker translation, but this nails it.

Mais Boris Johnson n’a rien à faire de la logique ni des convictions. Il a même théorisé son absence de principes en se vantant d’avoir préparé deux lettres ouvertes avant de se jeter dans la campagne de 2016, l’une pro-européenne, l’autre favorable au Brexit. Depuis lors, la liste de ses impostures, de ses bévues et de ses échecs n’a cessé de s’allonger.


Boris Johnson is a stranger to logic and convictions. :lol:
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Re: Brexit

#8111  Postby Svartalf » Jun 13, 2019 12:53 pm

Thommo wrote:Johnson just secured more than one third of the votes in the first round, that means that unless people actively stop supporting him in later rounds he's guaranteed a place in the run off vote between party members. Given his overwhelming support among them, he's more or less guaranteed to be Prime Minister.

What a sorry state of affairs.

only one thing to say to that, and it's a 4 letter word.
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Re: Brexit

#8112  Postby Svartalf » Jun 13, 2019 12:57 pm

Spearthrower wrote:https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2019/06/12/boris-johnson-a-la-tete-du-royaume-uni-non-merci_5475124_3232.html

Spot on.

Maybe Svartalf can do a quicker translation, but this nails it.

Mais Boris Johnson n’a rien à faire de la logique ni des convictions. Il a même théorisé son absence de principes en se vantant d’avoir préparé deux lettres ouvertes avant de se jeter dans la campagne de 2016, l’une pro-européenne, l’autre favorable au Brexit. Depuis lors, la liste de ses impostures, de ses bévues et de ses échecs n’a cessé de s’allonger.


Boris Johnson is a stranger to logic and convictions. :lol:

I wish I could laugh at that too, but unfortunately I empathize with our neighbours who'll have to live under his rule, and for the truckload of shit he'll throw in the European gears if he's left in charge of overseeing brexit.
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Re: Brexit

#8113  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 13, 2019 12:58 pm

Svartalf wrote:
I wish I could laugh at that too, but unfortunately I empathize with our neighbours who'll have to live under his rule, and for the truckload of shit he'll throw in the European gears if he's left in charge of overseeing brexit.


It's laugh or cry mate.

Honestly, if I had the opportunity right now to cash in my British citizenship for a European one, I'd do it in the blink of an eye.
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Re: Brexit

#8114  Postby Svartalf » Jun 13, 2019 1:12 pm

what can I say, I'm more the crying type
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Re: Brexit

#8115  Postby Matt_B » Jun 13, 2019 1:16 pm

If you think you guys are disappointed, just imagine how the Brexiteers are going to feel when he screws them over again.
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Re: Brexit

#8116  Postby Svartalf » Jun 13, 2019 1:19 pm

they made their bed, let them sleep in it, it's the remainers I cry for.
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Re: Brexit

#8117  Postby The Hanging Monkey » Jun 13, 2019 1:28 pm

Thommo wrote:Johnson just secured more than one third of the votes in the first round, that means that unless people actively stop supporting him in later rounds he's guaranteed a place in the run off vote between party members. Given his overwhelming support among them, he's more or less guaranteed to be Prime Minister.

What a sorry state of affairs.


True, but Johnson (or whoever) will have exactly the same problems to deal with as May.

There won't be much of a honeymoon period.
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Re: Brexit

#8118  Postby Thommo » Jun 13, 2019 2:29 pm

It's not really Johnson's Brexit stance that bothers me. It's everything else.
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Re: Brexit

#8119  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 13, 2019 4:14 pm

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Re: Brexit

#8120  Postby Svartalf » Jun 13, 2019 5:37 pm

Thommo wrote:It's not really Johnson's Brexit stance that bothers me. It's everything else.

like the fact he has no clear stance?
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