Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#21  Postby aliihsanasl » Mar 10, 2018 8:38 pm

Oldskeptic wrote:
Alan C wrote:
willhud9 wrote:
laklak wrote:Well, you might need that, but I certainly don't. I'm quite happy to keep and bear. Invalidating the 2nd for individuals would reverse over a century of SCOTUS rulings, which is not something they like to do, nor with the current composition of the court something they are likely to do. Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly. Deny individuals the right to keep and bear arms - not a snowball's chance in hell.


It doesn't though.

Bolt action firearms and the like are not cause for much concern as they are not used frequently for crime. No one is saying they cannot have a gun, but the nonsense that they need urban paramilitary firearms due to the 2nd is not true.

Everytime there is a mass shooting people throw the statistics that knives and clubs kill more than the AR-15 per year. Sure. That is statistically true, but the AR-15 is the gun of choice for these mass shooters. Why? Because it is simple to use, is impersonal, and can do a lot of devastation quickly.

Chemically made bombs are more often than not duds in the planning. Knife attacks can be lived through and are not quite as effective. If these other methods were so easy as well to the AR-15 why choose the expensive gun and ammo route?

Furthermore, it was not over a century of SCOTUS rulings that would be overturned but only several decades worth. Big difference.


Wouldn't have been so easy to kill 17 schoolkids with a knife I'd imagine or the 58 in Vegas.


Ted Bundy killed at least 30 people with clubs and knives. Timothy McVeigh killed 168 using gardening supplies.


Maybe even more



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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#22  Postby Cito di Pense » Mar 10, 2018 10:10 pm

Alan C wrote:Wouldn't have been so easy to kill 17 schoolkids with a knife I'd imagine or the 58 in Vegas.


I'm sure you're right, but that just amounts to not being wrong on the internet. If social problems were easy to solve by waving one's hands at them, social problems would rapidly become a thing of the past, and religion would then have fewer evils at which to wave its hands.
Хлопнут без некролога. -- Серге́й Па́влович Королёв

Translation by Elbert Hubbard: Do not take life too seriously. You're not going to get out of it alive.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#23  Postby Sendraks » Mar 10, 2018 10:51 pm

Cito di Pense wrote: If social problems were easy to solve by waving one's hands at them, social problems would rapidly become a thing of the past, and religion would then have fewer evils at which to wave its hands.


And even the Jedi couldn't solve all social problems by waving their hands.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#24  Postby Cito di Pense » Mar 10, 2018 11:21 pm

Sendraks wrote:
Cito di Pense wrote: If social problems were easy to solve by waving one's hands at them, social problems would rapidly become a thing of the past, and religion would then have fewer evils at which to wave its hands.


And even the Jedi couldn't solve all social problems by waving their hands.


There are some dim theories in sociobiology that point at the function of peer disapproval in establishing group norms or morals. I'm not sure that blogging is the natural successor (emphasis on 'success') to shunning as a means of enforcing social norms, especially cross-culturally. I would seek an evidence-based approach to demonstrating the effectiveness of blogging in improving legal enforcement or creating positive social change.
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Translation by Elbert Hubbard: Do not take life too seriously. You're not going to get out of it alive.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#25  Postby OlivierK » Mar 10, 2018 11:46 pm

That's a good argument for gun control right there: that a reduction in incidence of violent urges is unlikely, so a reduction in the death toll will only achieved by reducing the spontaneous availability of weapons with high lethality.

For all the difficulties of passing gun control legislation, it's still easier than the sort of social engineering needed to have low homicide rates whilst retaining the culture of semi-automatics on special this week at Walmart.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#26  Postby Warren Dew » Mar 11, 2018 3:32 am

fisherman wrote:I have read that the NRA has successfully prevented public money being spent on the statistical gathering of gun related deaths.

Does this negatively affect the analysis of gun crime being viewed as a public health issue?

No, because that's not what actually happened.

What happened was that the Center for Disease Control was prohibited from spending money advocating gun control. They can still gather statistics evaluating guns from a public health standpoint.

Their latest comprehensive review, in 2013, for example, concluded among other things that substantial numbers of crimes are prevented by guns; it estimated defensive gun uses in the US at between 500,000 and 3 million per year.

Perhaps that's why the US has so much lower a violent crime rate than, say, the UK and Germany.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#27  Postby Warren Dew » Mar 11, 2018 3:37 am

laklak wrote:Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly.

My own state of Massachusetts did this in 1998. Our murder and robbery rates have been rising steadily ever since.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#28  Postby The_Piper » Mar 11, 2018 4:33 am

Warren Dew wrote:
laklak wrote:Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly.

My own state of Massachusetts did this in 1998. Our murder and robbery rates have been rising steadily ever since.

Uhh, we have the internet too. :scratch:
The murder rate in 2016 was identical to 1998, up slightly from 2015. The robbery rate is lower than in 1998.
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/macrime.htm
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/01/12/homicides-massachusetts-slightly-from/X2jelMzSQ7QDTlSVNH5wvN/story.html
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#29  Postby OlivierK » Mar 11, 2018 4:47 am

Warren Dew wrote:
laklak wrote:Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly.

My own state of Massachusetts did this in 1998. Our murder and robbery rates have been rising steadily ever since.

Yes, that's right. MA's homicide rate per 100,000 population has spiraled from 2.0 in 1998 to a whopping 2.0 in 2016.

And robbery has risen steadily from a troubling rate of 96.6 per 100,000 in 1998 to an out of control 78.8 in 2016.

And worse, Massachusetts Boasts Lowest Gun Death Rate in the Nation.

It's a fucking crisis, to be sure.

Edit: ninja'd by Piper. :doh:
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#30  Postby OlivierK » Mar 11, 2018 5:07 am

Warren Dew wrote:Their latest comprehensive review, in 2013, for example, concluded among other things that substantial numbers of crimes are prevented by guns; it estimated defensive gun uses in the US at between 500,000 and 3 million per year.

Perhaps that's why the US has so much lower a violent crime rate than, say, the UK and Germany.

Or perhaps it's because the US only counts aggravated assault and aggravated sexual assault as violent crimes, whereas other jurisdictions count all assaults and sexual crimes. Just saying.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#31  Postby Cito di Pense » Mar 11, 2018 5:14 am

OlivierK wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:
laklak wrote:Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly.

My own state of Massachusetts did this in 1998. Our murder and robbery rates have been rising steadily ever since.

Yes, that's right. MA's homicide rate per 100,000 population has spiraled from 2.0 in 1998 to a whopping 2.0 in 2016.

And robbery has risen steadily from a troubling rate of 96.6 per 100,000 in 1998 to an out of control 78.8 in 2016.

And worse, Massachusetts Boasts Lowest Gun Death Rate in the Nation.

It's a fucking crisis, to be sure.

Edit: ninja'd by Piper. :doh:


Beautiful posts, :clap: to both you and Piper. I can't argue against gun control any more effectively than I can against interstate commerce and racketeering. It would be great to know which state had the lowest gun death rate before Massachusetts passed its gun control legislation. It's a key part of the puzzle, and it is still missing. Massachusetts is a candidate for the most rational state in the US, because of Harvard and MIT (and Worcester Poly). California has Stanford and Caltech, but a completely different set of problems. If Massachusetts was next door to California, its problems would be more like California's. If California was in the northeast, it would not have nearly as many earthquakes and wildfires. I'm rambling now, but hellwithit, I'm on a roll.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#32  Postby Warren Dew » Mar 11, 2018 5:32 am

The_Piper wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:
laklak wrote:Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly.

My own state of Massachusetts did this in 1998. Our murder and robbery rates have been rising steadily ever since.

Uhh, we have the internet too. :scratch:
The murder rate in 2016 was identical to 1998, up slightly from 2015. The robbery rate is lower than in 1998.
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/macrime.htm
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/01/12/homicides-massachusetts-slightly-from/X2jelMzSQ7QDTlSVNH5wvN/story.html

Interesting. I was looking at a graph through 2011, by which time the Massachusetts murder rate was about 50% higher than it was in 1998. It appears that it has subsequently fallen back to its 1998 levels.

It's still the case that the murder rate rose steadily for a decade after the gun control laws were passed, but perhaps that just shows how before and after analyses are flawed. I'd be interested in other theories for why it rose and then fell.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#33  Postby OlivierK » Mar 11, 2018 5:45 am

I had a quick look, but didn't find anything on a gun law level that could explain it. In general, violent crime is inversely correlated to prosperity, so the GFC and its aftermath could be expected to provide a temporary increase. If you look at the Disaster Center link above, then Aggravated assault rates show that pattern quite clearly - a generally falling rate, with a temporary anomaly from 2007-10. Murder doesn't track that pattern so closely, with rises pre-2007, but it's a small-n crime so data's always a bit lumpy.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#34  Postby The_Piper » Mar 11, 2018 5:51 am

Warren Dew wrote:
The_Piper wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:
laklak wrote:Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly.

My own state of Massachusetts did this in 1998. Our murder and robbery rates have been rising steadily ever since.

Uhh, we have the internet too. :scratch:
The murder rate in 2016 was identical to 1998, up slightly from 2015. The robbery rate is lower than in 1998.
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/macrime.htm
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/01/12/homicides-massachusetts-slightly-from/X2jelMzSQ7QDTlSVNH5wvN/story.html

Interesting. I was looking at a graph through 2011, by which time the Massachusetts murder rate was about 50% higher than it was in 1998. It appears that it has subsequently fallen back to its 1998 levels.

It's still the case that the murder rate rose steadily for a decade after the gun control laws were passed, but perhaps that just shows how before and after analyses are flawed. I'd be interested in other theories for why it rose and then fell.

Yeah, correlation doesn't equal causation. It would take a nuanced look at various factors to even come up with a theory. Poverty, access to school, medicine, policing, language barriers, drugs, things like that. I don't know why that spike happened, but I'll note that the murder and robbery rates were much higher in the 70's and 80's, and had started falling just before 1998. Crime was much higher there when I was growing up. :shock:
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#35  Postby The_Piper » Mar 11, 2018 5:53 am

Cito di Pense wrote:
OlivierK wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:
laklak wrote:Regulate, yes. Ban "assault weapons", possibly.

My own state of Massachusetts did this in 1998. Our murder and robbery rates have been rising steadily ever since.

Yes, that's right. MA's homicide rate per 100,000 population has spiraled from 2.0 in 1998 to a whopping 2.0 in 2016.

And robbery has risen steadily from a troubling rate of 96.6 per 100,000 in 1998 to an out of control 78.8 in 2016.

And worse, Massachusetts Boasts Lowest Gun Death Rate in the Nation.

It's a fucking crisis, to be sure.

Edit: ninja'd by Piper. :doh:


Beautiful posts, :clap: to both you and Piper. I can't argue against gun control any more effectively than I can against interstate commerce and racketeering. It would be great to know which state had the lowest gun death rate before Massachusetts passed its gun control legislation. It's a key part of the puzzle, and it is still missing. Massachusetts is a candidate for the most rational state in the US, because of Harvard and MIT (and Worcester Poly). California has Stanford and Caltech, but a completely different set of problems. If Massachusetts was next door to California, its problems would be more like California's. If California was in the northeast, it would not have nearly as many earthquakes and wildfires. I'm rambling now, but hellwithit, I'm on a roll.

No love for Tufts or Suffolk? BC, Bu? :waah: :tongue:
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#36  Postby Macdoc » Mar 11, 2018 6:26 am

. It would be great to know which state had the lowest gun death rate before Massachusetts passed its gun control legislation. It's a key part of the puzzle, and it is still missing


Because study of gun deaths can't be funded by the Feds :nono:
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#37  Postby Cito di Pense » Mar 11, 2018 6:48 am

The_Piper wrote:No love for Tufts or Suffolk? BC, Bu? :waah: :tongue:


Nor Radcliffe nor Wellesley. Hotbeds of feminism, as you well know. Hotbeds of feminism. Let your imagination run wild. I've known ladies from Marblehead, Needham and Cohasset, if you know what I mean, all of them feminists.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#38  Postby fisherman » Mar 11, 2018 9:38 am

Warren Dew wrote:
fisherman wrote:I have read that the NRA has successfully prevented public money being spent on the statistical gathering of gun related deaths.

Does this negatively affect the analysis of gun crime being viewed as a public health issue?

No, because that's not what actually happened.

What happened was that the Center for Disease Control was prohibited from spending money advocating gun control. They can still gather statistics evaluating guns from a public health standpoint.


Thanks, I did pick that up wrong.

Though if the article is correct, CDC funding was cut by the same value as that spent on gun death research, which has had a long lasting effect where no little research has been undertaken. Short audio with ex-CDC worker who confirms as you say that there is no ban on the research but also talks of the fear (her word) from inside the CDC about touching that type of research.

In similar fashion gun trace data, linking guns used in crimes to the gun dealership, appears to be prohibited from use in public research.

There does seem to be stiff resistance to public money being used in this way.

Edit: changed no research to read little research
Last edited by fisherman on Mar 11, 2018 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#39  Postby zoon » Mar 11, 2018 9:43 am

OlivierK wrote:
Warren Dew wrote:Their latest comprehensive review, in 2013, for example, concluded among other things that substantial numbers of crimes are prevented by guns; it estimated defensive gun uses in the US at between 500,000 and 3 million per year.

Perhaps that's why the US has so much lower a violent crime rate than, say, the UK and Germany.

Or perhaps it's because the US only counts aggravated assault and aggravated sexual assault as violent crimes, whereas other jurisdictions count all assaults and sexual crimes. Just saying.

Yes, Warren Dew has made this claim before, for example in the Las Vegas shooting thread, and as you say, it's wrong because the US does not count common assault as a violent crime, while other countries such as Australia and the UK include common assault in their statistics for violent crime. The offence of common assault includes merely threatening someone physically without a weapon, or hitting them without causing serious injury, and unsurprisingly this happens much more often than causing serious injury, or threatening someone with a knife or gun.
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Re: Call for Action to Prevent Gun Violence in the United States

#40  Postby The_Piper » Mar 11, 2018 2:30 pm

Cito di Pense wrote:
The_Piper wrote:No love for Tufts or Suffolk? BC, Bu? :waah: :tongue:


Nor Radcliffe nor Wellesley. Hotbeds of feminism, as you well know. Hotbeds of feminism. Let your imagination run wild. I've known ladies from Marblehead, Needham and Cohasset, if you know what I mean, all of them feminists.
Hmm, I may know what you mean but not sure. One of my older friends would call it Marbleheader. I think he was hinting at something too.
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