Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

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Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#1  Postby Macdoc » Apr 13, 2020 8:12 pm

Six U.S. states to coordinate gradual reopening after coronavirus shutdown
Maria Caspani, Jessica Resnick-Ault

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Six states in the U.S. Northeast took the first tentative step on Monday toward reopening their economies by forming a regional panel to develop a strategy for the gradual lifting of restrictions aimed at stanching the coronavirus pandemic.

The announcement of the panel, to include economic and health officials from each state as well as the chief of staff of all six governors, came after President Donald Trump insisted that any decision on restarting the economy was his to make.

The states of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, with a total population of 32 million, will join with neighboring Delaware, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island in coordinating their efforts to reopen the economy as more signs the outbreak has stabilized emerged over the weekend.

The joint planning reflected growing concern among health officials and political leaders that easing stay-at-home orders too soon could allow the pandemic to re-accelerate, undoing hard-won progress the country has made in recent weeks.

“Nobody has been here before, nobody has all the answers,” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said during an open conference call with his five counterparts. “Addressing public health and the economy: which one is first? They’re both first.”

Cuomo said earlier on Monday that reopening “is a delicate balance” that involved “recalibrating” which businesses and activities are essential.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN21V185

700 + dead a day ....

Australia is thinking a 6 month shut down but did not shut down the schools

Sweden has few restrictions. Paying the price in health but economy may rebound quickly

China is slowly re-opening.

:scratch: :what:

Does anyone have any idea what best path might be. The panel seems a good idea. :coffee:
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#2  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Apr 13, 2020 8:18 pm

Yes. It's too soon. Restrictions should only be lifted when we have reached well into the far side of the curve. Even then it should be highly strategic in nature.

There is also the fact that for the most part, it isn't up to anyone but the public how soon we open up the economy. People will only go to restaurants, movies and hair salons when they feel safe. This isn't going to happen over night. It probably won't be fully open until we have broad scale vaccinations.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#3  Postby Macdoc » Apr 13, 2020 11:25 pm

Is it up to the public?...states of emergency and the various levels of restriction are up to the governments to decide when to open up the restrictions...public can then decide to take advantage.

Doug Ford Will Extend Ontario State Of Emergency For 28 Days
It's too early to lift Ontario's emergency measures, the premier said.
Allison Jones
Canadian Press

TORONTO — Ontario will extend its state of emergency by another month, Premier Doug Ford said Monday as he cautioned that even with some promising signs in the province’s COVID-19 fight, it is too early to start lifting restrictions.

The legislature will sit for an emergency session Tuesday to extend the orders by another 28 days, which closed non-essential businesses and child care centres — the province has not yet said whether school closures will be extended beyond May 4.

It comes as associate chief medical officer of health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said modellers are predicting that Ontario’s curve will peak this week, assuming all current restrictions continue.

Ontario reported a six-per-cent increase in new cases Monday, continuing a relatively low growth rate over the past several days.

“We’re seeing a glimmer, a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel here,” Ford said.

“But what happens if we do that and all of a sudden this comes back and bites us in the backside and just comes back with vengeance or another wave comes through?”

We’re seeing a glimmer, a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel here.
Premier Doug Ford
People are getting antsy, Ford said, but he wants to take a cautious approach.

“Everyone’s at the gate, ready to let those doors open, like at the horse races,” he said. “Everyone wants to take off. We just can’t right now. We have to go through this for a little bit longer, as painful as it is for everyone...When the time is right we will open it up slowly but surely.”

Ontario reported 421 new COVID-19 cases Monday and 17 new deaths. That brings the province to a total of 7,470 cases, including 291 deaths and 3,357 cases that have been resolved.

more
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/dou ... Pc2qGEMIBo

I think those in areas where the curve is flat or tipping down are questioning when things will be back to normal.

I suspect that's a backlash over the armageddon projections which in my view did not help the situation at all.

I have to admit my perceptions have changed...I look at every doorknob as a threat and even crowded scenes in movies seem oddly out of place. Grocery stores are fraught :? Never washed my hands so much in my life :coffee:
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#4  Postby laklak » Apr 14, 2020 12:47 am

At least there's toilet paper now.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#5  Postby Animavore » Apr 14, 2020 12:52 am

"Too soon" sounds like there was a response in the first place.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#6  Postby Macdoc » Apr 14, 2020 1:16 am

We should approach the issue very carefully': Nations pressured to loosen COVID-19-related rules

The decisions are complicated because each country is on its own coronavirus arc

The Associated Press · Posted: Apr 13, 2020 10:11 AM ET | Last Updated: 8 hours ago

As the coronavirus pandemic throws millions out of work and devastates economies worldwide, governments are struggling with the delicate balance between keeping people safe from a highly contagious virus and making sure they can still make a living or even have enough to eat.

Workers in some non-essential industries were returning to their jobs Monday in Spain, one of the hardest-hit countries in the pandemic, while in South Korea, officials were warning that hard-earned progress fighting the virus could be eroded by new infections as restrictions ease.

Control measures must be lifted slowly and with control. It cannot happen all at once.
- Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO chief


The decisions are complicated because each nation is on its own coronavirus arc, with places like Britain, Japan and parts of the United States still seeing increasing daily levels of deaths or infections; France and New York hoping they are stabilizing, albeit at a high plateau of deaths; and hard-hit nations such as Italy and Spain seeing declines in the rates of increase.


more
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nations-s ... -1.5530664

Restrictions ARE being lifted in some places, notably China and as noted above, Spain in certain sectors.

and Spain

globalnews.ca › news › coronavirus-italy-restrictions

Italy begins to grapple with lifting COVID-19 restrictions amid warmer weather
BY COLLEEN BARRY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Posted April 11, 2020 9:28 am
Updated April 11, 2020 7:31 pm
2 days ago - Italy was the first Western democracy to be hit by the virus, and it has suffered the most deaths of any nation: nearly 19,000. Now it is likely to set ...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6807277/coro ... trictions/

Many places looking at how....

Coronavirus lockdown: How can we lift restrictions?
By James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent
11 April 2020


UN health agency working on strategies to gradually lift COVID-19 restrictions
10 April 2020
Health

The World Health Organization (WHO) is working with countries on strategies to "gradually and safely" ease stay-at-home restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the new coronavirus, agency chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told journalists on Friday, though he cautioned against any sudden action.
"WHO wants to see restrictions lifted as much as anyone", he said.

"At the same time, lifting restrictions too quickly could lead to a deadly resurgence. The way down can be as dangerous as the way up if not managed properly".

Tedros laid out six factors for consideration, which include that transmission is controlled and sufficient public health and medical services are available.

continues
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061532

Topic of the moment it seems..
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#7  Postby Alan C » Apr 14, 2020 2:19 am

I wonder if that won't all be dependent on establishing conclusively that those who recover have lasting immunity as well as not continuing to be a carrier. I had heard of cases where some recovered individuals are re-testing as positive but would need to corroborate that.
In any case, I suspect comprehensive testing would need to be maintained [or actually done in areas where it hasn't been].
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#8  Postby felltoearth » Apr 14, 2020 2:47 am

Thunderf00t breaks down the numbers.




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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#9  Postby Macdoc » Apr 14, 2020 2:59 am

Here’s How We Extricate Ourselves From This Lockdown
ESCAPE PLAN

Aly Song/Reuters

One expert said New Yorkers might be able to “throw a small party, depending on your age and demographic”—and who attends—by the end of the summer.

Olivia Messer
Reporter
Updated Apr. 13, 2020 8:43AM ET / Published Apr. 13, 2020 4:05AM ET

No politician or public-health expert can say when the novel coronavirus pandemic, and attendant lockdowns and social distancing, will end. But there is a roadmap—actually, a competing array of them—for extricating the United States from social isolation.

In keeping with this convincingly dystopian moment, the hurdles are substantial ones. But if Americans are able to overcome them, the country will veer back toward a recognizable society—with some chilling new features.

A Step-by-Step Guide to Easing Out of Lockdown

more
https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavir ... t?ref=home
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#10  Postby Thommo » Apr 14, 2020 3:20 am

felltoearth wrote:Thunderf00t breaks down the numbers.


Dubious numbers, to put it mildly. He highballs his numbers and then calls them lowballs, which is why the estimates from experts in infectious diseases and pandemics don't match what he says.

ETA: Sorry, I don't think I've been damning enough. The video is pure garbage. It's even self-contradictory in parts.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#11  Postby aufbahrung » Apr 14, 2020 4:01 am

There'll be attempts to resucissate the economy via the electric shock of normalcy. The trouble is there never was a normalcy and so such attempts will fail. Further outbreaks of the disease, ubiqitous bankruptcy and a general malaise of being are gonna make it impossible to kick start the dead horse of economy. The far right will rise up as champions of the sitution. Later the regional nuclear wars will become a hindrance to large scale agriculture, all the while population bleeding away from the social and economic implosion, as civilization itself crumbles into ash.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#12  Postby Cito di Pense » Apr 14, 2020 6:33 am

aufbahrung wrote:There'll be attempts to resucissate the economy via the electric shock of normalcy. The trouble is there never was a normalcy and so such attempts will fail. Further outbreaks of the disease, ubiqitous bankruptcy and a general malaise of being are gonna make it impossible to kick start the dead horse of economy. The far right will rise up as champions of the sitution. Later the regional nuclear wars will become a hindrance to large scale agriculture, all the while population bleeding away from the social and economic implosion, as civilization itself crumbles into ash.


Now ask yourself, why would any of that be such a bad thing? To be sure, none of that would be much fun. If you want someone to promise you a rose garden, auf, go with God. Look at it this way: The sooner you get COVID-19 and die, or just starve to death, the sooner you'll be out of your misery.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#13  Postby felltoearth » Apr 15, 2020 11:38 am

Thommo wrote:
felltoearth wrote:Thunderf00t breaks down the numbers.


Dubious numbers, to put it mildly. He highballs his numbers and then calls them lowballs, which is why the estimates from experts in infectious diseases and pandemics don't match what he says.

ETA: Sorry, I don't think I've been damning enough. The video is pure garbage. It's even self-contradictory in parts.


These numbers?

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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#14  Postby Macdoc » Apr 15, 2020 11:12 pm

These countries are reopening after coronavirus -- here's how they're doing it
Laura Smith Spark-Profile-Image
By Laura Smith-Spark and Emma Reynolds, CNN
Updated 2:56 PM ET, Wed April 15, 2020

People in the Czech Republic can now shop at hardware and bicycle stores, play tennis and go swimming. Italians can visit bookshops and laundries, while younger students are returning to classrooms in Denmark. Austria has reopened smaller stores and Germany will follow suit next week.

These nations are among the first in the West to start feeling their way gradually out of the limits on daily life imposed by governments to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/e ... index.html
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#15  Postby Thommo » Apr 16, 2020 5:00 am

felltoearth wrote:These numbers?


Including those, since among other things no sensible model includes a 100% population infection, but they are far from the worst. Off the top of my head there's a bit where he starts on about a wild spread rate (which isn't a thing, this is some layman fudging or something) which he uses, at times, the way R0 is used and for which he has simply invented a value. He claims it as 1.3, indicating each infected person infects 0.3 new people every day for 14 days, which would indicate an R0 of 0.3*14 = 4.2, which is claiming that the virus is about twice as infectious as experts believe (although he actually claims this number is "about 40" as well, although that may just be him attributing the number of second, third, fourth and so on order infections for the 14 day period to that individual, although this is again not "a thing", so fuck knows what he's on about really).

He also explicitly claims at 4:23 that the "red line" is 1.055 such that "if you're below the red line it's only a matter of time before the virus is beaten". Again this is what R0 is for and he doesn't issue a calculation, although if you do calculate such a number for a daily basis over a 14 day period of infectiousness you don't get 1.055 anyway. Later, at 5:52, he calculates that a population of one sixth idiots who don't take measures to avoid infecting/infection and remaining five sixths people who infect at exactly one fourteenth of a person each day for their fourteen infectious days (although again, this is actually a nonsense assumption, why does nobody in this population observe quarantine and not infect more people? :dunno: ) would have a spread rate of 1.05, which he claims is above the red line, i.e. a greater number than 1.055, which it isn't. Of course this is irrelevant since this whole concept is bollocks and a subpopulation would act as a reservoir, not an average across the whole population anyway.

I'm sure there's loads more, but I don't want to flog a dead horse and I myself am most certainly not an expert. He does offer one really good bit of advice, which is listen to the experts. He's not one.

ETA: I did take his napkin math and apply some mid range estimates from experts I found quoted via a quick google search and came out at about 70,000 a day instead of 300,000. But honestly I wouldn't put much faith in the method anyway due to enormous error bars, it's just an indication of how much he highballs his estimates of the quantities involved despite pleading the contrary.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#16  Postby newolder » Apr 16, 2020 9:16 am

Angela Merkel explaining how apparently small differences in the infection rate have massive consequences. Crystal clear. Without using the phrase ‘ramping up’ once.

1.5 minute subtitled video @matthaig1
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#17  Postby newolder » Apr 16, 2020 9:37 am

Just reading...
Masks for all? The science says yes.

Written: 13 Apr 2020 by Professor Trisha Greenhalgh OBE and Jeremy Howard

Confused about mask wearing? Sure, it’s complicated. But not as complicated as some people imply. We’ve been looking at the science (see our papers Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review — with 84 references! — and Face masks for the public during the covid-19 crisis). Here’s a summary of the different streams of evidence, and our take on what it all means.

...

Conclusion
Whilst not every piece of scientific evidence supports mask-wearing, most of it points in the same direction. Our assessment of this evidence leads us to a clear conclusion: keep your droplets to yourself – wear a mask.

...


fast.ai source
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#18  Postby Macdoc » Apr 16, 2020 9:56 am

Seems likely to be a feature of society for a while.....as will glove litter.
Finally a good use for all those hotel soap bars we swipe. :D
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#19  Postby Thommo » Apr 16, 2020 10:20 am

newolder wrote:Just reading...
Masks for all? The science says yes.

Written: 13 Apr 2020 by Professor Trisha Greenhalgh OBE and Jeremy Howard

Confused about mask wearing? Sure, it’s complicated. But not as complicated as some people imply. We’ve been looking at the science (see our papers Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review — with 84 references! — and Face masks for the public during the covid-19 crisis). Here’s a summary of the different streams of evidence, and our take on what it all means.

...

Conclusion
Whilst not every piece of scientific evidence supports mask-wearing, most of it points in the same direction. Our assessment of this evidence leads us to a clear conclusion: keep your droplets to yourself – wear a mask.

...


fast.ai source


Whilst not absolutely definitive, it's a compelling case.
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Re: Covid lifting of restrictions ..too soon??

#20  Postby Macdoc » Apr 16, 2020 10:32 am

Well UK certainly is not emerging anytime soon....

Coronavirus UK live: Lockdown to be extended as as minister warns no return to normal without vaccine
Foreign secretary Dominic Raab to lead meetings on Covid-19 physical distancing measures as sources say ministers have no lockdown exit plan


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -extension
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