Democrat Watch

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Re: Democrat Watch

#1041  Postby OlivierK » Feb 23, 2020 3:55 am

WayOfTheDodo wrote:
laklak wrote:It's Bernie that makes me not want to vote for Bernie.

What about him is it that makes you not want to vote for him?


OlivierK wrote:I loathe Bloomberg as a Democratic candidate (if he had balls, he'd be running for the Republican nomination, given his policies), but I'd still hold my nose and vote for him if the choice came down to him or Trump, were I an American, even though I'd far, far, far, far prefer to see Warren get the nom.

The problem is that Bloomberg and Trump are both racist, sexist abusers, but Bloomberg is a capable racist, sexist abuser. He would be able to get far more done than Trump is able to - that is, he would be able to do far more damage.

Able to, perhaps, but inclined to? I don't think so. He seems less contemptuous towards institutions and democracy than Trump is (although that's a pretty fucking low bar). We agree that Bloomberg is bad, but that's not enough, on its own, to make him as bad as Trump. Trump is simply going to break more shit because he's got no respect for the office he occupies. I'd vote for Bloomberg on SCOTUS appointments alone - that's one area that a second Trump term could deliver a decades-long shower of shit on the US, and while Bloomberg's picks should he get any (reasonably likely) might be establishment types, they're unlikely to be unrepentant assholes like Kavanaugh.

Face it, if Bloomberg was running against Trump in the Republican primaries, you'd want him to win for the sake of the country.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1042  Postby Hermit » Feb 23, 2020 4:09 am

WayOfTheDodo wrote:
Hermit wrote:
WayOfTheDodo wrote:As expected, evidence is never presented. Rather, endless accusations and smears with zero substance. Zero actual data showing that Bernie supporters are somehow worse than anyone else.

Um...

Image

So is this supposed to "prove" that 16% of Sanders voters are mean on Twitter?

No. It proves that half of Bernie's supporters are definitely or possibly worse in terms of helping to give Trump the heave-ho, come November. I confidently predict that the next US President is going to be either a Democrat or a Republican. By definitely (or possibly) not voting for the Democratic candidate unless the candidate's name is Bernie Sanders they increase the Republican candidate's chances of winning even if they don't bother to vote at all. This might just be enough to help Trump over the line.

I have long been mystified why so many people don't get the concept of voting for the least worst politician. It turns out that there are not as many of them as I thought. This came as a surprise to me:
Yang was one of two 2020 Democratic candidates, along with Senator Bernie Sanders, with double-digit support among voters who voted for Trump in 2016.[67][68][69] Polling conducted by Business Insider in the fall of 2019 found that Yang had the highest net satisfaction rate among undecided 2020 general election voters,[70][71] and a November 2019 College Pulse poll found that Yang had the highest crossover support among college students of any candidate in the 2020 race, with 18% of Republican college students saying they would support Yang over Trump in the general election.[72]

This strongly suggests that for a relatively large percentage of voters who definitely will not vote for a Democratic candidate unless the candidate is Yang or Sanders, voting for Trump is voting for the least worst (remaining) politician. Their judgement may be absurd, but most of them are not the spiteful, "my way or the highway" types they are too commonly portrayed as.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1043  Postby Alan C » Feb 23, 2020 7:12 am

I remember one recent election my choice of candidates were; A National [tory] fuckwit, a Conservative Party fuckwit, an Act Party [conservative libertarians] fuckwit and a Labour candidate. I voted for the Labour person.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1044  Postby Xaihe » Feb 23, 2020 11:07 pm

Hermit wrote:
WayOfTheDodo wrote:
Hermit wrote:
WayOfTheDodo wrote:As expected, evidence is never presented. Rather, endless accusations and smears with zero substance. Zero actual data showing that Bernie supporters are somehow worse than anyone else.

Um...

Image

So is this supposed to "prove" that 16% of Sanders voters are mean on Twitter?

No. It proves that half of Bernie's supporters are definitely or possibly worse in terms of helping to give Trump the heave-ho, come November. I confidently predict that the next US President is going to be either a Democrat or a Republican. By definitely (or possibly) not voting for the Democratic candidate unless the candidate's name is Bernie Sanders they increase the Republican candidate's chances of winning even if they don't bother to vote at all. This might just be enough to help Trump over the line.

I have long been mystified why so many people don't get the concept of voting for the least worst politician. It turns out that there are not as many of them as I thought. This came as a surprise to me:
Yang was one of two 2020 Democratic candidates, along with Senator Bernie Sanders, with double-digit support among voters who voted for Trump in 2016.[67][68][69] Polling conducted by Business Insider in the fall of 2019 found that Yang had the highest net satisfaction rate among undecided 2020 general election voters,[70][71] and a November 2019 College Pulse poll found that Yang had the highest crossover support among college students of any candidate in the 2020 race, with 18% of Republican college students saying they would support Yang over Trump in the general election.[72]

This strongly suggests that for a relatively large percentage of voters who definitely will not vote for a Democratic candidate unless the candidate is Yang or Sanders, voting for Trump is voting for the least worst (remaining) politician. Their judgement may be absurd, but most of them are not the spiteful, "my way or the highway" types they are too commonly portrayed as.

There is more than just the one way to interpret this. People might see this as how Bernie supporters are Democrats who would rather see the country burn than vote for someone else. However, what is easily overlooked is how someone like Sanders does so very well with independents and is able to draw them away from Trump and over to vote for him.

I would say that this speaks more to how bad the other candidates are with independents than how bad these would be Bernie voters are towards those candidates.

On top of that, shouldn't the onus be on the candidates to speak to the voters, rather than on voters to support "the least worst"?
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1045  Postby OlivierK » Feb 23, 2020 11:54 pm

The problem here is that if Bernie wins the primaries and gets the nomination, then he's going to need a huge ground game for the general election. And sure, looking at that graph, pretty much all the Warren / Biden / Buttigieg voters will be along for the ride, but what about volunteers on the ground? How are Warren and Buttigieg volunteers going to slot in to an organisation in which a sizeable chunk of people think that Trump is better than Warren or Buttigieg? Could be some issues there.

An obvious caveat with this poll is that "what people say they'd do if their candidate doesn't get up" and "what they'd actually do if their candidate doesn't get up" aren't necessarily the same.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1046  Postby Tero » Feb 24, 2020 2:39 am

People that vote for Democrats usually, even if claiming to be independent, will vote for the Democrat or nobody. Not Trump.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1047  Postby Hermit » Feb 24, 2020 8:25 am

Tero wrote:People that vote for Democrats usually, even if claiming to be independent, will vote for the Democrat or nobody. Not Trump.

Again:
Yang was one of two 2020 Democratic candidates, along with Senator Bernie Sanders, with double-digit support among voters who voted for Trump in 2016.

Can you see a reason why this would not be a two-way street?
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1048  Postby Tero » Feb 24, 2020 2:01 pm

Yang got no traction. It would be different if he got some traction in the party. Trump is right in that: the Democratic party is a swamp.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1049  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Feb 24, 2020 9:21 pm

OlivierK wrote:The problem here is that if Bernie wins the primaries and gets the nomination, then he's going to need a huge ground game for the general election. And sure, looking at that graph, pretty much all the Warren / Biden / Buttigieg voters will be along for the ride, but what about volunteers on the ground? How are Warren and Buttigieg volunteers going to slot in to an organisation in which a sizeable chunk of people think that Trump is better than Warren or Buttigieg? Could be some issues there.

An obvious caveat with this poll is that "what people say they'd do if their candidate doesn't get up" and "what they'd actually do if their candidate doesn't get up" aren't necessarily the same.


I think if Bernie keeps on message, he can pull everyone else around to him. He's big on healthcare which is the top concern aside from removing Trump. Most people know Trump isn't going to deliver on healthcare or bring down its costs. While everyone who is voting for Biden, Warren or Buttigieg are not convinced with Bernie's plan, they have no choice to go with it if he's the nominee.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1050  Postby Seabass » Feb 24, 2020 9:33 pm

"Bad government is the natural product of rule by those who believe government is bad." —Thomas Frank

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Re: Democrat Watch

#1051  Postby arugula2 » Feb 25, 2020 6:16 am

CdesignProponentsist wrote:I think if Bernie keeps on message, he can pull everyone else around to him. He's big on healthcare which is the top concern aside from removing Trump. Most people know Trump isn't going to deliver on healthcare or bring down its costs. While everyone who is voting for Biden, Warren or Buttigieg are not convinced with Bernie's plan, they have no choice to go with it if he's the nominee.

Just to buttress this thought: the bulk of the naysayers (among "Democrats") probably don't think it can get done, and assume most people feel that way; so for them, it becomes a vague "electability" issue, if anything, rather than a personal opposition on policy grounds. The (obnoxiously loud, disingenuous) cohort that actually opposes him on policy grounds, obviously does think he can win in the general and potentially push M4A through. But, again I would wager, they're a much smaller group with much more to lose in the way of financial ties to insurance interests.

Of the two groups, one is more "low-information" than the other. So, basically, to win over almost all of the combined group, all Bernie has to do is keep proving he can whop all those other wannabes. I'm not sure how many spankings it's going to take for the see change - I'm inclined to think it's already happened & we'll know in a couple weeks.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1052  Postby BWE » Feb 25, 2020 6:37 am

I tend to agree
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1053  Postby Seabass » Feb 25, 2020 10:43 am

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Re: Democrat Watch

#1054  Postby aufbahrung » Feb 25, 2020 10:58 am

Reminds me of Michael Foot. Similar outcome I reckon. Bernie is the typical nice guy who loses the contest.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1055  Postby arugula2 » Feb 25, 2020 5:07 pm

I’m not sure how much British elections form your context, but... some distinctions about US prez elections spoil most comparisons. For example:

US presidents are (essentially) elected by the States. WIth a few anomalous exceptions, what matters for either side is to make sure it seems threatening in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Colorado, and to a lesser extent Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida (and lately Georgia). That’s about it.

The anomalies matter, but they’re hard to gauge. For example, in the next decade or so, Texas will become reliably purple, and eventually occasionally blue, because of population shifts. In the meantime, there’s no way to predict how the changes so far will affect this election. At the very least, Republicans will have to burn more money than they’d like to. There’s a silent progressive insurgency in lower offices throughout the country, including Texas. Progressive candidates tend to rely on grassroots movements and funding – because the main party apparatus otherwise starves them or outright stifles them. A grassroots movement (as opposed to top-down, elitist) is a more reliable generator of new bodies at the voting stations. A more minor blip, but still important: Beto’s 2018 senate bid. Texas has 38 electors to the Electoral College, 2nd after California. Any Republican operative not vigilant about Texas is stupid.

Likely this election will hinge on the usual suspects: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. (The other newly-competitive states - Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona - are traditionally red states, so they’re only a headache to the Republican.) Michigan will almost certainly go blue, based on trends of the last 2 years. There’re some under-reported shifts in Pennsylvania that imply a massively increased Democratic base, especially in greater Philadelphia. That, too, is a grassroots phenomenon, and mainly progressive. So really the only one that excites me is Wisconsin. And something interesting seems to be happening there: the traditional Democratic base, especially in Milwaukee County - which didn’t have much reason to vote in 2016 - has a reason to vote if Bernie’s the guy. In 2016, a ghoulishly bad Dem candidate lost MI by 11k, WI by 23k, PA by 50k. Slim margins, even out of context. Context: Bernie was very popular in those states, and now more people know him.

The anti-socialist propaganda falls flat.

The key to turnout is to motivate disaffected voters, not the suburban middle & upper middle class. Attacking the establishment while constantly speaking to the existential anxieties of most people – mostly economic – does that. Regardless of actual odds, there’s no other candidate consistently doing this.

The key to swaying amenable trump supporters is to do the above while drawing a contrast to all trump’s liabilities. No other candidate can credibly do this. Other than his apparent physical frailty, Bernie is as close to a designer test-tube baby specifically grown to this purpose, as we’re ever likely to see.

Between 2012 and 2020, ~ 32 million Americans will have come into voting age. Millennials/youth (18-35) are now as numerous as boomers for the first time. Test-tube baby has them covered.
Last edited by arugula2 on Feb 25, 2020 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1056  Postby Macdoc » Feb 25, 2020 5:29 pm

The worry is that while many detest the dumpf, elections are too often about the economy and he's taken credit for Obama's groundwork plus bringing the troops home and cutting what he and his base see as unneeded expenditures like foreign aid.

That he's spending money like a drunken fool does not seem to bother them.

Trump's $1 trillion deficit should make you furious.slate.com › business › 2020/01 › trump-trillion-dollar-deficit-should-...
Jan 29, 2020 - The federal deficit is expected to pass $1 trillion this year and keep rising over the coming decade, the Congressional Budget Office projected this week

https://slate.com/business/2020/01/trum ... rious.html

I do think the Democratic base is motivated to dump the dumpf but Bernie=socialist may sway the hoi polloi.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1057  Postby arugula2 » Feb 25, 2020 5:55 pm

Repubs killed the anti-socialist message. It now only matters to right wing nuts & white evangelicals. These are not swingable cohorts.

“Economy gud” rings hollow to the vast swath of the workforce, whose wages have been stagnant for 40 years. The more they hear about the corporate theft of their & their children’s potential earnings, the less impressed they are with how well Wall Street & their company bosses are doing.

Employer-immune health coverage, stronger unions, living wages. If these weren’t still very much unresolved issues, there’d be no basis for a revolution.

Trump’s war-weariness is an asset. Good thing bernie’s is more authentic, then. Win-win.

The real war will be over perceived rights of the masses, and how convincingly the current regime can be painted as swampy, corporatist phonies. It’s not going to be a difficult messaging campaign, since they are exactly that.
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1058  Postby Stein » Feb 25, 2020 6:19 pm

As a useful exercise, I'm trying to look at all this from right outside either bubble.

Standing right outside one bubble, the fact is some Republicans I've met who are hardly enamored of Trump do not view him as a downright skinhead -- meaning a downright white nationalist, antisemite, neo-Nazi, etc., etc..... Yes, he enables much of that, seems to empower that, even seems intimidated by that demographic, etc., but seems too unideological to explicitly embrace the skinhead agenda himself. For one thing, his comfort zone with his Jewish son-in-law seems perfectly genuine to otherwise disaffected Republicans. Trump seems to really respect him.

But these partially disaffected Republicans, who do appreciate his apparent lack of antisemitism, still see Trump as a kid playing with matches in one respect: his obstinate refusal to explicitly disown the skinhead demographic and the goon-like antics of, say, those skinhead marchers in Charlottesville with slogans like "Jews will not replace us", or running one woman over with a car, etc., etc......

O.K., let's skip over to the other bubble now. Standing right outside the other bubble, anyone who's closely followed 20th-century Scandinavian politics will get that there is a clearly democratic strain of social programs in Scandinavia, which still remains a completely democratic region and has even produced a stable prosperity. As another example, America's President Franklin Roosevelt largely appeared to subscribe to this type of program, and certain programs that today's flourishing democracies take for granted, like Roosevelt's social security, are of this form of social program.

In the wake of Franklin Roosevelt and the similarly democratic social safety net in Sweden and Norway, Denmark's own Prime Minister Larsen was the next generation to take up this same apparently prosperous and free tradition and may have been the first head of state to actually call this tradition "Democratic Socialism".

That this tradition has always been genuinely democratic is certainly true. It has also produced stability and prosperity. But whether or not it is really socialism is open to debate -- in some circles. Some just term it a mixed economy instead of real socialism.

While there are competing definitions of socialism, Denmark's Larsen's use of the term for the Scandinavian tradition did catch on. His practice of using the term here has stuck. It's a way of distinguishing what are genuinely democratic and prosperous systems in Scandinavia from the totalitarian strictly statist authoritarian goon-like dead-end Stalinist Communism of Soviet Russia, Mao's China, Castro's Cuba, North Korea, Pol Pot's Cambodia, etc., etc.

Again and again, Bernie Sanders has made it clear he is using the Larsen lexicon. It is thanks to Larsen (and not so much the earlier Sweden/Norway) that the term Democratic Socialism gained circulation in the first place

Now Sanders, going back decades, has always subscribed to the Democratic Socialist model in Denmark. If you study Denmark today, that probably gives you about the closest picture of what Sanders is on about.

However, there is a reason why a Sanders Administration cannot be all gas and gaiters: To whit, What of Sanders' supporters? His followers? Does every single one of them really get the crucial distinction between Larsen versus Castro, Franklin Roosevelt versus Stalin? Really?

Yes, I have a feeling most of them do get that distinction. But does every single last one? That concerns me.

From time to time, Sanders has made a halfhearted attempt to distance himself from the goon-like antics of a fringe element on line who also profess support for Sanders? Is it possible that this small portion of supporters on line happen to act like goons because they're really goons who happen to subscribe to the dead-end totalitarian Communist model, not to the Democratic model of Denmark's Larsen? They maybe latch on to Sanders in much the same way that dyed-in-the-wool antisemitic skinheads latch on to Trump.

Yes, I admit I'm still appalled, after half a decade, that Trump won't unequivocally disown and repudiate the racist skinheads by name and repudiate their goonish behavior.

How about Sanders? Today, in 2020, it is past time for Sanders to explicitly disown and repudiate by name those goons who profess support of Sanders while acting up in ways that strongly suggest a totalitarian bias. Sanders cannot risk -- by either commission or omission -- enabling or empowering any goons who appear to act up in his name. The time to discredit them completely is right now.

To be frank, I admit that Trump strikes me as someone with far less regard for our democratic institutions and our laws than any respectable President.

What about Sanders?

The pros: By contrast, Sanders is at least a long-time Senator with a long-time record of functioning in a democratic institution where Democrats and Republicans must break bread together. In addition, Sanders has occasionally worked on legislation with members of both parties. That's all good. So since Sanders seems to understand democratic institutions better than Trump, I do trust him more with our freedoms than I do Trump, and I would probably vote for Sanders for that reason.

The cons: However, if Sanders does not want to duplicate our unhappy experience with today's apparently rising hate crimes under Trump -- a chief reason why I can never bring myself to vote for Trump -- Sanders has to be as direct and as stern and as explicit as possible in denouncing any goons who threaten our freedoms of thought and speech in Sanders' name. Personally, I view Trump's continued passivity and neglect, in the face of similar goons, to be a moral disaster. Candidly, a long-time Senator like Sanders ought to be respectful enough of our freedoms not to make the same colossal error in judgement that Trump has made. But will he?
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1059  Postby WayOfTheDodo » Feb 25, 2020 7:42 pm

Spinozasgalt wrote:Indeed. I think you'd agree then that well off people like the guy below, with listeners numbering in the "hundreds of thousands", should do better than to threaten not to show up unless they get their way with Sanders. If so, then we agree on something.
chapo.jpg

Huh? You are really going to ignore all the facts presented to you and change the topic?

How about you take a look at this instead:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23neverbernie

Why is it that you ignore the evidence and single out Bernie and his supporters, and hold them to a much higher standard than anyone else in the race?
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Re: Democrat Watch

#1060  Postby WayOfTheDodo » Feb 25, 2020 7:50 pm

willhud9 wrote:The other reality is Sanders wins. In 2021, the US economy hits a recession/depression due to Trump's and the GOP's economic policies catching up. Sanders and the Democrats face the blunt of blame. "See, socialism cripples economies!" the uneducated voterbase buys into it and we have Trump 2024. Trump promises to save the people. Congress grants the President more authority and soon we have a direct dictatorship.

Im not saying we shouldn't vote for Sanders, but to think that this is our only chance as if the 4 years of the next President is our ONLY chance of progress in this country is just silly.

Wait, so if Bernie becomes president and the economy tanks that is a problem, but if another Democrat becomes president and the economy tanks that's no problem at all?!
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