Ebola outbreak

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Re: Ebola outbreak

#21  Postby epepke » Aug 08, 2014 11:17 pm

I'll way in on part of it. It's something that most people hate; it's the idea that a bit of thinking goes a long way.

Ebola's really scary, because of the high mortality rate and all the bleeding at the end. In a few months, in a continent with a huge number of people, poor medical facilities, little sanitation except in a few places, and a hugely undereducated populace, a bit fewer than 2000 people have managed to contract it. That's about how many people in the US will die from automobile accidents this month. It's also smaller than a number such that, going by the 9/11 thread, about a quarter of Europeans and other non-Americans seem to consider a trivial number of Americans to be killed in one day within a few city blocks. If you look at Ebola in the past, it has come in waves. Some people get infected, and then people get slightly more careful, and it goes away. This wave is worse than the earlier ones, such as in the 1990s. But then again, quite a lot on the continent is worse than the 1990s.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#22  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Aug 09, 2014 2:31 am

Aye.

Ebola is a concern, but by no means a global threat.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#23  Postby Voltage » Aug 09, 2014 5:14 am

I was reading this earlier. It's here?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/ontario-ho ... -1.1952234
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#24  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Aug 09, 2014 7:30 am

Voltage wrote:I was reading this earlier. It's here?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/ontario-ho ... -1.1952234


It's been "here" since Wednesday.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/05/health/eb ... index.html

And you have about as much chance of catching it as you have of being bitten by a shark on land, so don't go near any sharks.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#25  Postby kiore » Aug 09, 2014 9:57 am

I am running health education sessions here as part of our preparation and to try and put some perspective into this I point out the number dead (so far) in the 3 main affected countries is probably about the same as those killed in motorbike accidents...

However it is a scary and difficult disease to treat and really strains systems to the max. Because of the Ebola many many more people will be dying of malaria and AWD (diarrheal diseases) in these areas as well as impacted on all other activities including trading, farming and education. The impact of an uncontained outbreak really far more significant and destructive than just the mortality and morbidity of those infected. This outbreak will seriously damage these 3 countries and set their development back significantly. Countries with working systems will contain the outbreak more effectively and subsequently it will have minimal impact on their economies. Why this is a global emergency is that we cannot allow a reservoir epidemic to continue in such a large area, this cannot be allowed to last for years as a threat to everywhere else and particularly to other vulnerable countries.
This is like the declared Polio Global Emergency in that it ramps up the level of attention towards the disease and directs efforts globally rather than locally, like Polio we cannot allow the establishment of reservoir countries.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#26  Postby orpheus » Aug 09, 2014 11:28 am

epepke wrote:
In a few months, in a continent with a huge number of people, poor medical facilities, little sanitation except in a few places, and a hugely undereducated populace, a bit fewer than 2000 people have managed to contract it. That's about how many people in the US will die from automobile accidents this month.


This is indeed comforting, and a necessary counterbalance to the scaremongering. However, I see a few problems with this comparison (and others like it):

1) Yes, fewer than 2000 have died in a continent with a huge population. But most of that population could not have caught the virus from this outbreak anyway, because they are nowhere near the comparatively small and concentrated location of the outbreak. Similarly, the US has about 2000 deaths per month from automobile accidents. However, automobiles are ubiquitous in the US. To be a fair comparison, we'd have to consider a situation where the virus was as widespread as cars are now. I'm just a layman, but I'd guess that in such a situation - if Ebola were common nationwide, we'd be seeing far, far more deaths from the virus than from car accidents.

2) Even if the numeric comparison were fair, it applies to the virus as we know it now. But automobiles can't mutate; viruses can, rapidly, and in unexpected ways. Again, I'm a layman, but what if the virus mutated to become transmissible by air rather than by direct contact? I think we'd suddenly see a much more worrying picture.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#27  Postby orpheus » Aug 09, 2014 11:38 am

Peter Brown wrote:
Ironclad wrote:
Peter Brown wrote:What gets me with these doom plagues is how some places aren't just wiped out, like just about anywhere when religion & prayer > science and hospital care.


I have read that ebola isn't as infectious as you'd imagine. Those chaps wear the space-age bubble suits, not because it is so virulent, but because the consequences are so terrible if we do catch it. Maybe this is why towns aren't dying like YAHWEH wants.


Its kind of like HIV, it needs to be body fluids, but unlike AIDS, the terminal stages are bleeding from orifices so your going to have high risks to everyone touching them not wearing 100% barrier clothing. So places like India this virus would, should be lethal.

One of the problems I heard a few days ago was the virus is totally new to the environment. As a result villagers are actually blaming the Docs for spreading it and refusing them village access, or even attacking them.

The 90% mortality rate was old and way out of date media research. The media was quoting 90% from day 1, but serious reporters had that down to 60% the same afternoon when they bothered to ask a Dr in the field. Stupid media outlets still quote 90%.

Death toll was in the 900s a few days ago, I've not seen many figures being quoted, just serious, endemic, crises to scare the public into a frenzy for an antidote, like the piggy flu that never was.


It's easy to say that in retrospect, but at the time we didn't know how bad that flu might be. (Look at the 1918 pandemic.) I agree that it's important not to scare the public unnecessarily — but it's also important to take seriously the possibility that it could really be quite horrible.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#28  Postby DoctorE » Aug 09, 2014 11:42 am

Gawd did it ...
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#29  Postby ED209 » Aug 11, 2014 11:58 am

Treating Ebola with Homeopathy

Image

During its more than 200 year history, homeopathy has proven highly effective in epidemics, both as regards cure and prevention, with well-documented success rates in, among others, scarlet fever, polio, cholera and flu epidemics, and offers a viable alternative to standard vaccination called homeoprophylaxis.

With the current threat of an Ebola epidemic, this technology and experience can be put to good use. In this article you will find the means to help you survive an Ebola virus infection...


http://blogs.naturalnews.com/treating-ebola-homeopathy/

:eh:
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#30  Postby Made of Stars » Aug 11, 2014 12:04 pm

Arsehats from the link above wrote:How to Make Your Own Ebola Remedy

What you need:
1. A face mask and gloves
2. Two bottles (50 ml up to 500 ml glass or plastic bottles) with caps
3. Clean water (mineral or tap water)
4. An Ebola sample...

What the actual fucking fuck?!?!?!?111?
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#31  Postby wtargentina » Aug 11, 2014 12:21 pm

ED209 wrote:
Treating Ebola with Homeopathy

Image

During its more than 200 year history, homeopathy has proven highly effective in epidemics, both as regards cure and prevention, with well-documented success rates in, among others, scarlet fever, polio, cholera and flu epidemics, and offers a viable alternative to standard vaccination called homeoprophylaxis.

With the current threat of an Ebola epidemic, this technology and experience can be put to good use. In this article you will find the means to help you survive an Ebola virus infection...


http://blogs.naturalnews.com/treating-e ... opathy/:eh:


Holy fuck - that's the stupidest thing on the internet, surely.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#32  Postby Alan B » Aug 11, 2014 4:40 pm

4. Hold the bottle and strike it hard against a solid surface, such as a large book, 40 times.

That won't fucking work. It's gotta be a LEATHER bound book! :snooty:
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#33  Postby campermon » Aug 11, 2014 6:22 pm

Alan B wrote:
4. Hold the bottle and strike it hard against a solid surface, such as a large book, 40 times.

That won't fucking work. It's gotta be a LEATHER bound book! :snooty:


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

either that or cry!

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Re: Ebola outbreak

#34  Postby wtargentina » Aug 12, 2014 1:06 pm

Remarkably Natural News has taken down its Ebola advice. First sensible thing that website has ever done.
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#35  Postby willhud9 » Aug 13, 2014 5:55 am



Vlogbrothers responds to Ebola outbreak.
Fear is a choice you embrace
Your only truth
Tribal poetry
Witchcraft filling your void
Lust for fantasy
Male necrocracy
Every child worthy of a better tale
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#36  Postby epepke » Aug 13, 2014 9:11 am

orpheus wrote:
epepke wrote:
In a few months, in a continent with a huge number of people, poor medical facilities, little sanitation except in a few places, and a hugely undereducated populace, a bit fewer than 2000 people have managed to contract it. That's about how many people in the US will die from automobile accidents this month.


This is indeed comforting, and a necessary counterbalance to the scaremongering. However, I see a few problems with this comparison (and others like it):

1) Yes, fewer than 2000 have died in a continent with a huge population. But most of that population could not have caught the virus from this outbreak anyway, because they are nowhere near the comparatively small and concentrated location of the outbreak. Similarly, the US has about 2000 deaths per month from automobile accidents. However, automobiles are ubiquitous in the US. To be a fair comparison, we'd have to consider a situation where the virus was as widespread as cars are now. I'm just a layman, but I'd guess that in such a situation - if Ebola were common nationwide, we'd be seeing far, far more deaths from the virus than from car accidents.


First part is pretty good, and I'm glad you brought it up. Second part questionable. Stupid burial practices are pretty common in Africa.

2) Even if the numeric comparison were fair, it applies to the virus as we know it now. But automobiles can't mutate; viruses can, rapidly, and in unexpected ways. Again, I'm a layman, but what if the virus mutated to become transmissible by air rather than by direct contact? I think we'd suddenly see a much more worrying picture.


True enough, but also, people have been warning about HIV becoming airborne for decades now. It hasn't happened. Of course, it could, but Bayesian statistics, y'all. What is the probability that the fear is because of the probability of mutation, versus the probability that it's just a bunch of nig-nog fear?
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#37  Postby orpheus » Aug 13, 2014 1:33 pm

epepke wrote:
orpheus wrote:
epepke wrote:
In a few months, in a continent with a huge number of people, poor medical facilities, little sanitation except in a few places, and a hugely undereducated populace, a bit fewer than 2000 people have managed to contract it. That's about how many people in the US will die from automobile accidents this month.


This is indeed comforting, and a necessary counterbalance to the scaremongering. However, I see a few problems with this comparison (and others like it):

1) Yes, fewer than 2000 have died in a continent with a huge population. But most of that population could not have caught the virus from this outbreak anyway, because they are nowhere near the comparatively small and concentrated location of the outbreak. Similarly, the US has about 2000 deaths per month from automobile accidents. However, automobiles are ubiquitous in the US. To be a fair comparison, we'd have to consider a situation where the virus was as widespread as cars are now. I'm just a layman, but I'd guess that in such a situation - if Ebola were common nationwide, we'd be seeing far, far more deaths from the virus than from car accidents.


First part is pretty good, and I'm glad you brought it up. Second part questionable. Stupid burial practices are pretty common in Africa.

2) Even if the numeric comparison were fair, it applies to the virus as we know it now. But automobiles can't mutate; viruses can, rapidly, and in unexpected ways. Again, I'm a layman, but what if the virus mutated to become transmissible by air rather than by direct contact? I think we'd suddenly see a much more worrying picture.


True enough, but also, people have been warning about HIV becoming airborne for decades now. It hasn't happened. Of course, it could, but Bayesian statistics, y'all. What is the probability that the fear is because of the probability of mutation, versus the probability that it's just a bunch of nig-nog fear?


Yes, there is that. :)

Thing is, this sort of exchange — that we're having right here — is informative and addresses these questions. Why can't the press do the same? It wouldn't have to take much space, and it would be much more useful than either of the extreme pronouncements we're seeing: "we're doomed" vs. "we're absolutely, completely safe and that's all there is to it." The motivation for the first is easy to understand: alarm bells sell. The motivation for the second, if I'm reading it correctly, is insulting: people are stupid, so we have to treat them as children: tell them they're absolutely safe and don't confuse them with any nuanced explanation. (I do realize there are some pieces from various news outlets that do explain with a bit more nuance. But they're few and far between.)
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#38  Postby kiore » Aug 17, 2014 2:50 pm

Bad things get worse!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28827091
Breaking news from Liberia:
Quarantine centre for Ebola patients in Liberian capital Monrovia is attacked and looted by protesters, police say
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#39  Postby campermon » Aug 17, 2014 2:56 pm

kiore wrote:Bad things get worse!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28827091
Breaking news from Liberia:
Quarantine centre for Ebola patients in Liberian capital Monrovia is attacked and looted by protesters, police say


Fucking idiots :nono:

In other news, a suspected case has turned up in Spain;
http://dalje.com/en-world/nigerian-man- ... ain/518672
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Re: Ebola outbreak

#40  Postby kiore » Aug 17, 2014 3:00 pm

More on the situation in Liberia, protestors have reportedly removed infected/suspected patients from isolation claiming Ebola is a hoax.
http://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/new ... /453699342
This is a disastrous turn of events and although responses like this have been seen before in epidemics of Ebola control has never been lost to this degree. The government has failed spectacularly in educating the population, the population (for some good reasons) also distrusts the government.
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