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Father O Rielly wrote:Ha Joon Chang makes a good case in his book, Bad Samaritans, that globalization and free trade are a bunch of nonsense. They are ideas that are supported by institutions like the IMF and World Bank, but they do so only in support of the interests of the rich, developed countries.
Father O Rielly wrote:Leaving economic decisions to the market place does not work
Father O Rielly wrote:The US, Britain, and others, when they were on the steep slope of development themselves, were ardent supporters of tariffs and protectionism. Lack of regulation is of most benefit when a modern, affluent country is interested in profiting in a less developed region. Infant industries need time and support to grow, and those that are subjected to competition with major players too soon will not survive.
Father O Rielly wrote:There may be some short-term benefits to free trade, and the free movement of capital around the world, but overall poorer countries tend to get stuck with the status quo.
Hugin wrote:A quick fact check: Is China better or worse off today compared to when it wasn't globalized? The answer to that should tell you who it is in fact that espouses nonsense.
Tyrannical wrote:Hugin wrote:A quick fact check: Is China better or worse off today compared to when it wasn't globalized? The answer to that should tell you who it is in fact that espouses nonsense.
China may be better off, but I don't think the US is. Sure we in the US can buy cheaply made Chinese shit, but it is not in our best long term interest to do so.
Economically it is in your best interests to do so. The only real pertinent argument for not doing so is to retain a domestic manufacturing base for reasons of national security - concerns which won't last forever, as the geopolitical landscape keeps on shifting.
Jbags wrote:It is in the long term interests of those workers to not be working in an uncompetitive industry.
Jbags wrote:Bringing that back on topic, protecting these industries in developed countries is hurting the global economy as a hole for the sake of a few cheap political points, "we're saving your jobs!" (not mentioning that doing so is a net loss to the nation, and the globe) and so on.
Tyrannical wrote:Jbags wrote:It is in the long term interests of those workers to not be working in an uncompetitive industry.
It is only uncompetitive because we allow companies to export manufacturing equipment and know-how while employing cheap Chinese slave labor. It is not different then a slave based economy, and the poor and middle class in the West suffer because of it.
Tyrannical wrote:Jbags wrote:Bringing that back on topic, protecting these industries in developed countries is hurting the global economy as a hole for the sake of a few cheap political points, "we're saving your jobs!" (not mentioning that doing so is a net loss to the nation, and the globe) and so on.
Why give a damn about the "global economy"? Why care about third and second world countries? The rich first world nations should care only about themselves and their citizens. Instead we sell ourselves out over the benefit of cheap slave labor making our trinkets and baubles.
The US should put high tariffs on all Chinese goods to compensate for the difference in wages. If you want to relocate a factory in a cheaper labor area, use Mexico instead. A prosperous and stable Mexico is in the US's best interest as employed Mexicans are more likely to stay in their own country.
Hugin wrote:Father O Rielly wrote:Ha Joon Chang makes a good case in his book, Bad Samaritans, that globalization and free trade are a bunch of nonsense. They are ideas that are supported by institutions like the IMF and World Bank, but they do so only in support of the interests of the rich, developed countries.
I suggest that you familiarize yourself with the economics of trade. Yes, both rich and poor countries benefit from trade. The poor countries wouldn't trade if they didn't benefit from it. That's pretty much implicit.
A quick fact check: Is China better or worse off today compared to when it wasn't globalized? The answer to that should tell you who it is in fact that espouses nonsense.Father O Rielly wrote:Leaving economic decisions to the market place does not work
How often are the store out of milk or toilett paper when you need it? The former East Bloc can tell you something about that.Father O Rielly wrote:The US, Britain, and others, when they were on the steep slope of development themselves, were ardent supporters of tariffs and protectionism. Lack of regulation is of most benefit when a modern, affluent country is interested in profiting in a less developed region. Infant industries need time and support to grow, and those that are subjected to competition with major players too soon will not survive.
The US and the UK didn't have universal suffrage when they developed either. Would you suggest that universal suffrage is impossible for development?
Hong Kong didn't develop with protectionism, so your point that protectionism is necessary seems rather hollow.Father O Rielly wrote:There may be some short-term benefits to free trade, and the free movement of capital around the world, but overall poorer countries tend to get stuck with the status quo.
Would Europe be better off without the EU? What about the free trade and free movement between Canada's provinces?
Father O Rielly wrote:
I believe you are confusing the idea of trade in general with the extreme policies of the right wing that unfortunately dominate much discussion in the US, and in the institutions in which the US is so influential, like the IMF and the World Bank. There is nothing wrong with trade, or the injection of capital into developing countries per se. The problem comes in when those with a disproportionate amount of power insist that there be no rules, no limits, on what western companies can do to make a profit.
Father O Rielly wrote:China is indeed better off today, but precisely because it has insisted on strong regulation of the market place. They have planned to develop an industrial base all along, and not just stay stuck with low value exports. To do this, they have had tariffs, controlled exchange rates, and directed resources to target industries through a process of central planning. In recent years, China has had a much higher rate of growth than western “free traders”, and has also come through the recent recession in much better shape.
Father O Rielly wrote:
Europe is probably a lot better off with the EU. But it is better off because those settling up the organization have gone to painstaking, intricate, time consuming lengths to insure a level playing field. They did so because they knew that the unregulated flow of goods and services only works well between those of equal development, with similar financial policies. The EU today is a bureaucracy, an additional layer of government. It works exactly because so much effort has gone into the regulation of its economy, and it would not if key decisions were just left hanging, or given over to corporate CEOs to handle in what ever way suited them. The EU engages in functions that are angrily denounced by the uber-right when practiced in less developed countries, such as protecting its agricultural industries, and allocating resources to target industries.
Father O Rielly wrote:I believe you are confusing the idea of trade in general with the extreme policies of the right wing that unfortunately dominate much discussion in the US, and in the institutions in which the US is so influential, like the IMF and the World Bank. There is nothing wrong with trade, or the injection of capital into developing countries per se.
Father O Rielly wrote:The problem comes in when those with a disproportionate amount of power insist that there be no rules, no limits, on what western companies can do to make a profit.
Father O Rielly wrote:One of the problems in the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the flow of “hot money”, in other words, speculators had been given free reign in the financial markets of certain Asian countries. Money flowed into whatever seemed likely to turn a quick buck, not into long-term development. And it all flowed out again as soon as the herd was spooked, for no better reason than maybe there was an instant return somewhere else. Western countries wouldn’t, and didn’t, allow this kind of infringement on sovereign decision making when they were still developing their key industries.
Father O Rielly wrote:China is indeed better off today, but precisely because it has insisted on strong regulation of the market place. They have planned to develop an industrial base all along, and not just stay stuck with low value exports. To do this, they have had tariffs, controlled exchange rates, and directed resources to target industries through a process of central planning. In recent years, China has had a much higher rate of growth than western “free traders”, and has also come through the recent recession in much better shape.
Father O Rielly wrote:As for the East Bloc countries, no one, including the author, is suggesting Stalinist style communism. The key point is that if we have no regulation of the market place, pretty soon, to no great surprise, the market will be dominated by the most powerful, who will manipulate it for their primary benefit.
Father O Rielly wrote:I don’t think I see your point about universal suffrage. The US and UK had very strong protectionist policies when they were developing, and did well with them. This is also true for other regions. Latin America also had some good rates of growth while they still had “protectionist” policies in place, which then sagged when they were pressured to “open up”.
Father O Rielly wrote:You are right that Hong Kong is a bit of an exception, although even here, it was not a place without any regulation.
Father O Rielly wrote:The EU engages in functions that are angrily denounced by the uber-right when practiced in less developed countries, such as protecting its agricultural industries, and allocating resources to target industries.
Tyrannical wrote:Globalization and free trade only makes the rich richer, everyone else gets poorer.
Curb immigration and outlaw the outsourcing to non-first world countries.
Roger Cooke wrote:Tyrannical wrote:Globalization and free trade only makes the rich richer, everyone else gets poorer.
Curb immigration and outlaw the outsourcing to non-first world countries.
I don't know how to outlaw outsourcing. What I would do is restore tariffs, though. Anyone who wants access to a market in a particular country would either have to produce and invest in that country or pay a penalty for not doing so. (Might be a good way to finance infrastructure projects also.)
Jbags wrote:Father O Rielly wrote:
I believe you are confusing the idea of trade in general with the extreme policies of the right wing that unfortunately dominate much discussion in the US, and in the institutions in which the US is so influential, like the IMF and the World Bank. There is nothing wrong with trade, or the injection of capital into developing countries per se. The problem comes in when those with a disproportionate amount of power insist that there be no rules, no limits, on what western companies can do to make a profit.
Again, we need to consider different spheres of influence here. There are situations where relaxing rules/limits/tariffs is of paramount importance. Goods from developed nations should be available in developing nations without the market interference of trade tariffs or subsidies on the part of the developed nation. Their goods should accurately reflect their market competitiveness (which is distorted when you domestically subsidise an industry and let it export at that lower, subsidised price).
Now, on the part of the developing nations, you have a fine balancing act that needs to be played sensibly. First of all, I would highlight that MNCs from developed nations have in the past (and continue today) to exert political pressure on developing nations purely for their own profit. This of course is a potentially nefarious activity, and should not be endorsed.
But that said, developing nations are under no obligation (and shouldn't be under one) to implement western laws and standards. Things like relaxed labour, financial and development regulation is exactly what draws MNCs to developing nations in the first place - and in the majority of cases this is a situation that benefits everyone. Jobs, expertise and infrastructure are created in developing nations, and MNCs are able to take advantage of lower costs.
Now this doesn't stop countries like the US using its FDI and government aid as leverage for political ends, and this is just as troublesome as MNCs doing the same. Sometimes this is done for a good reason, for example to put an end to discrimination or to pressure a totalitarian regime to reform. However it's also used to further less admirable political choices, refusing aid unless countries acquiesce to a "pro-life" policy on abortion, or refrain from distributting contraceptives in favour of "emphasis on abstinence".
And just like these governments, pressure from foreign investors can be used to both good and bad ends, clearly this is something that needs international supervision, but any move towards a situation where MNCs are unable to involve themselves economically in developing nations is detrimental to everyone involved.Father O Rielly wrote:China is indeed better off today, but precisely because it has insisted on strong regulation of the market place. They have planned to develop an industrial base all along, and not just stay stuck with low value exports. To do this, they have had tariffs, controlled exchange rates, and directed resources to target industries through a process of central planning. In recent years, China has had a much higher rate of growth than western “free traders”, and has also come through the recent recession in much better shape.
I won't debate the role hot money played in the bursting of the asian bubble in the 90s, or the role it had in the dot com bubble, and so on, the herd mentality leads to vast movements of capital which can be damaging to all economies, just as we've seen in the developed world with today's financial crisis.
I think its a mistake, however, to purely attribute China's growth and its weathering of the financial crisis purely down to its strict economic controls. Certainly was a stabilizing factor in terms of the financial crisis, and even today A shares on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges are extremely tough for foreigners to get involved with . A list of approved foreign investors is given a carefully measured quota at regular intervals. This is very gradually being raised to allow greater foreign involvement, to build up China's financial markets, partcularly Shanghai. The Shanghai stock exchange recently allowed futures trading for the first time, and the world's biggest IPO (being conducted by the Agricultural Bank of China) is about to be conducted on Chinese stock exchanges, so they are keen for (controlled) foreign involvement.
However, to attribute its econoic growth purely to its protectionism is highly misplaced. China had already invested in an industrial base under Communist rule, although it was run very badly, they at least had a foundation of infrastructure. Now, here you'll have to bear with me, the most important thing about Chinese growth is you have to compare different types of growth. In particular, you have to examine growth in real output, growth in potential output and utilization of production potential.
By economists, this idea is described with the "production possibility frontier" (PPF) curve. I shan't draw you an example, as I don't think its particularly necessary, but the concept is highly relevant here. Increasing potential output in the economic is represented by expanding the PPF curve. This is where developed nations derive most of their growth. They are utilizing the majority of the nation's potential economic production, and achieve economic growth by increasing the potential level of production their economies can output. This is generally the case for most economic growth we see today.
At certain times however, countries will find themselves well within their PPF boundary - they will not be using the majority of their country's potential for production. An example here would be post war Germany, which experienced a period of rapid growth after WWII raising it from its post-war desolation to one of the most economically powerful nations in Europe (and today's largest European economy). After the war, Germany had a huge amount of unemployment, and a completely delapidated industrial infrastructure. The process of rebuilding itself contributed to massive growth rates - it was recapturing its Economic potential for production, rather than expanding it.
This is exactly what we've seen in China. China was essentially in a period of upheaval between 1912 and 1949 (for example: where most countries were at war between 1939 and 1945 around the second world war, China was at war betwen 1927 and 1949, it was at war for twenty-two years with barely more than six months peace between the end of WWII and the resuming of their own civil war). Then, after over twenty years of warfare, Mao proceeded to squander China's capacity, often taking direct steps backward with The Cultural Revolution, and the ironically named Great Leap Forward.
Finally when Deng Xiaoping implemented the open door policy (giving the green light for, as he put it, "communism with chinese characterists"), China gradually started to allow its citizens to engage in basic economic activity, and then, slowly allowed foreign input in finally getting the Chinese economy off the floor.
Unlike Germany, which saw an immediate return to standard market stability, China has only been gradually opening its economy up (arguably, this gradual change has been one of its greatest achievements). And they are racing back towards their production potential, and have probably already utilized more than ever before. This "catch up" growth is extremely powerful, does not incur high levels of inflation and is notoriously good at weathering exogenous shocks (see: financial crisis).
China was already on an extremely powerful growth pathway when the financial crisis hit, Chinese growth is fuelled by the exact kind of production you would expect to see of this "catch up" growth - infrastructure development and construction contribute the vast majority of Chinese growth at the moment. This is not something that can really be endangered by a financial crisis, or interfered with much by developed nations (it does, however, have its own dangers - if you don't know when to stop building, you can enter a property bubble, which would have a much larger impact on China than the financial crisis).
(tl;dr) So, in summary, current Chinese economic growth has only very little to do with its protectionism, a lot to do with the nature of its growth.Father O Rielly wrote:
Europe is probably a lot better off with the EU. But it is better off because those settling up the organization have gone to painstaking, intricate, time consuming lengths to insure a level playing field. They did so because they knew that the unregulated flow of goods and services only works well between those of equal development, with similar financial policies. The EU today is a bureaucracy, an additional layer of government. It works exactly because so much effort has gone into the regulation of its economy, and it would not if key decisions were just left hanging, or given over to corporate CEOs to handle in what ever way suited them. The EU engages in functions that are angrily denounced by the uber-right when practiced in less developed countries, such as protecting its agricultural industries, and allocating resources to target industries.
The EU's agricultural protectionism is absolutely shameful and has no sound economic basis. These are measures that should be afforded to developing nations and not tolerated in developed nations.
So, its not just a case of being against free trade, but ensuring developed nations practice free trade policies, but ensuring developing nations are afforded the chance to protect their domestic industries. Decades of the EU's CAP has done enough damage to the agricultural industries in the developing world, its high time we put an end to it.
And, "those of equal development" is a bit of a misnomer for the EU, as development levels and economy types vary hugely among its members. All would be considered "developed" economies, but its certainly not a case of a level playing field.
I am strongly in favour of the EU as an organization, but I am highly critical of its proctectionist policies.
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I think there is a fundamental point here that I think we may agree on: Developed economies should refrain from engaging in protectionism, whereas developing economies should be given the opportunity to protect their fledgling industries.
Am I far wrong?
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