November USA 2020 election

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Re: November USA 2020 election

#401  Postby Seabass » Oct 17, 2020 9:01 am



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Re: November USA 2020 election

#402  Postby willhud9 » Oct 17, 2020 1:52 pm



This guy has quickly become one of my favorite YouTubers.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#403  Postby laklak » Oct 17, 2020 3:53 pm

Ranked voting would be great. However, given our two party system we could just assume it. Vote for Biden? Your second choice is Trump.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#404  Postby The_Piper » Oct 17, 2020 4:17 pm

laklak wrote:Ranked voting would be great. However, given our two party system we could just assume it. Vote for Biden? Your second choice is Trump.

You don't have to have a second choice. But if other candidates knew ahead of time that it was ranked choice voting, they'd stay in the race and try harder. I'd be able to choose Bernie or someone like him as my number one, without "wasting" the vote and helping Trump. When Bernie loses my vote becomes a vote for my number 2 selection, B-b-b-b-b-b. I can't say it. :lol: :lol: (like the news guy below :lol:)
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#405  Postby Animavore » Oct 17, 2020 4:42 pm

We have ranked voting in Ireland.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#406  Postby arugula2 » Oct 17, 2020 7:04 pm

^ And no relying on proprietary voting machines programmed & operated by opaque organizations with close ties to one of the national parties? Which can't be audited? Man... must be nice. :)

And a population & media that accept that counting can take days? How quaint.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#407  Postby Seabass » Oct 17, 2020 8:56 pm

laklak wrote:Ranked voting would be great. However, given our two party system we could just assume it. Vote for Biden? Your second choice is Trump.

The lack of things like ranked voting and proportional representation are the reason we have a two party system.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#408  Postby laklak » Oct 17, 2020 9:33 pm

I've never really understood why we're stuck with only two parties. There's nothing structural that prevents a viable third party, at least that I can see. Plenty of multi-party parliamentary systems out there without ranked voting or proportional representation (though we do have partial proportional representation in the House). Maybe it's because we directly elect the President? I don't know. Makes no sense to me, but then again, the older I get the less any goddamn thing makes any sense. I just need to go live in the bush and grow weed.

Soon, my precious, soon.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#409  Postby Thommo » Oct 17, 2020 9:49 pm

Aren't elections to the House decided by FPTP within districts, and not PR?
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#410  Postby arugula2 » Oct 17, 2020 9:57 pm

laklak wrote:I've never really understood why we're stuck with only two parties. There's nothing structural that prevents a viable third party, at least that I can see. Plenty of multi-party parliamentary systems out there without ranked voting or proportional representation (though we do have partial proportional representation in the House). Maybe it's because we directly elect the President? I don't know. Makes no sense to me, but then again, the older I get the less any goddamn thing makes any sense. I just need to go live in the bush and grow weed.

Soon, my precious, soon.

Money = speech, for one. Money will concentrate power, because moneyed interests know it's the only way they can continue to tip the scales. Government has options for fracturing the field (e.g. by giving moneyed interests reasons to fund more diverse pool of challengers, or - wow, what an idea! - limiting the role of money in elections) but it's too late, because government is beholden to them. They got involved early, and they're still winning.

The presidency, like you imply, is another reason. It focuses money, so it streamlines power.

it would be good to try out a figurehead presidency... but the founders were inured to kings, so... :dunno:
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#411  Postby Seabass » Oct 17, 2020 10:20 pm

laklak wrote:I've never really understood why we're stuck with only two parties. There's nothing structural that prevents a viable third party, at least that I can see. Plenty of multi-party parliamentary systems out there without ranked voting or proportional representation (though we do have partial proportional representation in the House). Maybe it's because we directly elect the President? I don't know. Makes no sense to me, but then again, the older I get the less any goddamn thing makes any sense. I just need to go live in the bush and grow weed.

Soon, my precious, soon.

The House doesn't use PR. In a PR system, all parties (within reason) get representation in proportion to the number of votes they get. Our House is first past the post winner take all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation
Proportional representation (PR) characterizes electoral systems in which divisions in an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body.[1] If n% of the electorate support a particular political party or set of candidates as their favorite, then roughly n% of seats will be won by that party or those candidates.[2] The essence of such systems is that all votes contribute to the result—not just a plurality, or a bare majority.




This is what happens without PR:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law
A two-party system often develops in a plurality voting system. In this system, voters have a single vote, which they can cast for a single candidate in their district, in which only one legislative seat is available. In plurality voting (also referred to as first past the post), in which the winner of the seat is determined purely by the candidate with the most votes, several characteristics can serve to discourage the development of third parties and reward the two major parties.

Duverger argued that there were two mechanisms whereby plurality voting systems lead to fewer major parties: (i) small parties are disincentivized to form because they have great difficulty winning seats or representation, and (ii) voters are wary of voting for a smaller party whose policies they actually favor because they do not want to "waste" their votes (on a party unlikely to win a plurality) and therefore tend to gravitate to one of two major parties that is more likely to achieve a plurality, win the election, and implement policy.[8][9][10]

Because the first-past-the-post system gives only the (plurality) winner in each district a seat, a party that consistently comes in second or third in many or most districts will not gain any seats in the legislature, even if it receives a substantial minority of the vote. This puts geographically thinly spread parties at a significant disadvantage to geographically concentrated ones with the same overall level of public support. An example of this is the Liberal Democrats in the United Kingdom, whose proportion of seats in the legislature is significantly less than their proportion of the national vote. The Green Party of Canada is another example; the party received about 5% of the popular vote from 2004 to 2011 but had only won one seat (out of 308) in the House of Commons in the same span of time. Another example was seen in the 1992 U.S. presidential election, when Ross Perot's candidacy received zero electoral votes despite receiving 19% of the popular vote. Gerrymandering is sometimes used to try to collect a population of like-minded voters within a geographically cohesive district so that their votes are not "wasted", but tends to be controversial (because it can also be used for the opposite purpose). These disadvantages tend to suppress the ability of a third party to engage in the political process.

The second challenge to a third party is both statistical and tactical. Duverger presents the example of an election in which 100,000 moderate voters and 80,000 radical voters are to vote for candidates for a single seat or office. If two moderate parties ran candidates and one radical candidate ran (and every voter voted), the radical candidate would tend to win unless one of the moderate candidates gathered fewer than 20,000 votes. Appreciating this risk, moderate voters would be inclined to vote for the moderate candidate they deemed likely to gain more votes, with the goal of defeating the radical candidate. To win, then, either the two moderate parties must merge, or one moderate party must fail, as the voters gravitate to the two strongest parties. Duverger called this trend polarization.[11]




And if we add ranked voting to presidency/governor then we can actually vote for who we want instead of who we think can beat the other side.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#412  Postby OlivierK » Oct 17, 2020 11:01 pm

We've had ranked coice voting for a century, and I can vouch for its general effectiveness.

However it doesn't actually act as much of a brake on negative campaigning (Tony Abbott, anyone?), and it is in no way an antidote to gerrymandering (and mathematically, it makes sense that district packing will have exactly the same effects under RCV).

It also doesn't act as a particular brake on the two party system, as nearly every election involves redistributing the votes of minor parties until they reach one of the two majors. This effect is so strong that in Australia, initial vote counts are done not only on first preference votes across all candidates, but also (on the same pass) a two-party-preferred count amongst the two highest parties from the previous election in that electorate (which in 90+% of electorates are the two majors). Sure, sometimes that count just goes in the bin if those two don't end up as the top two again, but that's rare enough for a two-party count to be worthwhile.

Multi-member electorates and other systems that move closer to proportional representation are a far bigger silver bullet for the issues raised as concerns in the video Will posted than ranked choice voting.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#413  Postby arugula2 » Oct 17, 2020 11:15 pm

The_Piper wrote:

Now that we're alone, youtube guy, it's a fun pitch, but... a glib "he voted for the Iraq War(s)" is a glib dismissal of 1.5 million dead civies, so... ya. Perspective. (Otoh Americans only tend to care when they see dead American soldiers, so... I suppose that was factored in, so nvm.)
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#414  Postby laklak » Oct 18, 2020 2:24 am

Seabass wrote:
The House doesn't use PR. In a PR system, all parties (within reason) get representation in proportion to the number of votes they get. Our House is first past the post winner take all.


Ah sorry, I misunderstood. You are, of course, correct.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#415  Postby The_Piper » Oct 18, 2020 3:29 pm

arugula2 wrote:
The_Piper wrote:

Now that we're alone, youtube guy, it's a fun pitch, but... a glib "he voted for the Iraq War(s)" is a glib dismissal of 1.5 million dead civies, so... ya. Perspective. (Otoh Americans only tend to care when they see dead American soldiers, so... I suppose that was factored in, so nvm.)

I don't know exactly what you're talking about as I haven't watched the tragically hilarious video in a few days. Either direct me to the point in the video you mean, or tell me what you mean directly. Or neither, it's just a funny video who's larger point is correct, and I was using to show where I got the bit about not being able to complete the phrase "vote for Joe Biden". :lol:
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#416  Postby arugula2 » Oct 18, 2020 4:01 pm

4:28 I think. I get the intent & he's funny. And below the surface he's whitewashing some odious stuff in the guise of "bland! like a cashew!". Aside from "even though the cashew voted for the Iraq War" while showing a stack of cashews (haha! I get what I'm supposed to feel here!), it's pretty much the gamut. "[He] still doesn't want to legalize marijuana" leaves out the seismic repercussions legalization might have on those millions whose lives were ruined bc of a marijuana charge, given that legalization would probably impact their sentences & criminal records... which is a thread in the larger "racist mass incarceration state" narrative that, somehow, gets folded into the "bland like a cashew!" joke. By contrast, he mentions how Trump had people gassed so he could take a selfie with a bible (this was the Lafayette Sq. incident) as a prime example of his fascism. Idk... realistically, if that + all the other combined federal assaults on protesters = fascism, then mass incarceration + marijuana criminalization is a de facto crime against humanity.

There are other, more small-scale examples, like "he's probably a rapist" while showing a headline about Trump that could easily be transposed to Biden... and then somehow reducing the Biden version to "and he... sniffed that woman's hair" (7:42, note the dismissive gestures here), like, you know, cashews do sometimes. Or something.

Anyway, in summary, the video is fun until I think about it. :P Then I realize that unless he actually buys the underlying logic, he probably had to suppress a gag reflex to make many of these forced points - which is kinda meta (if true), since the whole video is about suppressing a gag reflex to vote for someone. (Albeit, to vote for him despite him being "bland! like a cashew!")

Although it morphed into a need to mention 1.5 million dead Iraqis, my initial impetus for posting was that I actually like cashews, and my impression was always that there are always too few of them in a mixed-nut situation. :P
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#417  Postby The_Piper » Oct 19, 2020 3:54 am

Thanks for clarifying. I don't think he whitewashed that, he only said that he voted for the Iraq war, without mentioning how many Americans or Iraqi civilians died. I never heard the number 1.5 million before, but that's besides the point. He said Biden sucks, the whole video.
Trump is worse. Trump is an actual fascist, and if it wasn't for the constitution he'd act on it faster than you can say vote for B-b-b-b-b. Dammit. :lol:
Biden said he's for decriminalizing marijuana, which isn't as good as legalizing, but probably more than would happen under Trump. 4 Years and we haven't heard a peep about, except from Jeff Sessions giving a very hard pass on that. I have a pot conviction. (actually two of them) It hasn't come back to haunt me yet, but there's still time. It happened while I was a government employee to boot. I did the 'ol don't ask, don't tell.
I think you mis-typed something when you said that legalization would have seismic repurcussions for those with a conviction. How?
-Not that I trust any of these campaign promises, nor could Biden do them all by himself.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#418  Postby arugula2 » Oct 19, 2020 5:00 am

(1 of 2)

Well, cashews suck, apparently. So he can say "sucks" a thousand times if he wants, :P he'd still be painting an impression that's basically benign. He wants us to know Trump is evil like a Nazi is evil, and Biden sucks (and is boring) like a cashew sucks (and is boring)... the most repeated analogy throughout the video. Nobody finds a cashew despicable in principle. It's part of the messaging.

Leaving out the casualties (both US soldiers and foreign civilians) is itself the whitewashing, in a litany that goes into detailed specifics about Trump's badness (example: gassing of protesters in Lafayette Sq). That's how the whitewashing is done... by using different standards of language and levels of specificity. He wants us to know specifically how Trump is evil (gassed protesters in Lafayette Sq.) in contrast to how Biden "sucks" (voted for something). Incidentally, had he mentioned 1.5 million dead Iraqis (and a few thousand dead Americans) it would've not just changed the tone of the video, it would've given info to the viewer that the viewer probably deserves to know.

Trump is a fascist, but there are probably several hundred thousand fascists in this country. He aspires to make it count. That's where he's at right now. Yet in spite of his ambitions, Trump hasn't actively contributed to the police harassment, arrest, conviction, incarceration, and execution of nearly as many Americans as Biden has, even in any given 4-year period of the last 3 decades. That, too, is something the viewer probably deserves to know.
Last edited by arugula2 on Oct 19, 2020 5:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#419  Postby arugula2 » Oct 19, 2020 5:01 am

(2 of 2)

Re: marijuana, (I actually wasn't even going by Biden's promise, just the video's mild complaint... what's left unsaid is the impact of the ramped-up police fascism that Biden eagerly ushered in this country, that also swept up a shit-ton of people on marijuana possession charges) if a reform at the federal level happens, it's quite likely past convictions will also be expunged. At the federal level, that's not a lot of people. But when something sweeping happens to the federal justice system, it usually has ripple effects in the states. So, broadly speaking, state convictions should be next, in the states that haven't already passed their own reforms.

Several articles about the MORE Act (example: High Times) mention that the bill would give states incentives to expunge their own convictions. If I had to guess by looking at a draft of the bill itself, I'd say it's the section that promises a "Community Reinvestment Grant Program", essentially a federal grant to states to help them carry out expungments etc.; here's a portion of that section:
Community Reinvestment Grant Program

3052.Authorization
(a)In general
The Director of the Cannabis Justice Office shall establish and carry out a grant program, known as the Community Reinvestment Grant Program, to provide eligible entities with funds to administer services for individuals most adversely impacted by the War on Drugs, including—

    (1)job training;
    (2)reentry services;
    (3)legal aid for civil and criminal cases, including expungement of cannabis convictions;


And also the "Cannabis Opportunity Program", which is federal grants to states to set up marijuana shops. Here's the start of that section:
(b)Cannabis opportunity program; equitable licensing grant program
(1)Cannabis Opportunity Program
    The Administrator of the Small Business Administration shall establish and carry out a program, to be known as the Cannabis Opportunity Program to provide any eligible State or locality funds to make loans under section 7(m) of the Small Business Act (15 U.S.C. 363(m)) to assist small business concerns owned and controlled by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, as defined in section 8(d)(3)(C) of the Small Business Act (15 U.S.C. 637(d)(3)(C)) that operate in the cannabis industry.


An "eligible State" is defined in a section called "Definitions", and includes:
(B)The term eligible State or locality means a State or locality that has taken steps to—
    (i)create an automatic process, at no cost to the individual, for the expungement, destruction, or sealing of criminal records for cannabis offenses; and
    (ii)eliminate violations or other penalties for persons under parole, probation, pre-trial, or other State or local criminal supervision for a cannabis offense.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#420  Postby Seabass » Oct 20, 2020 5:23 am

Another victim of TDS.

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