November USA 2020 election

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November USA 2020 election

#1  Postby Hermit » Mar 05, 2020 11:35 pm

So, come November it's either Biden or Sanders versus Trump.

The most likely scenario: Biden can't avoid televised debates with Trump. Trump effortlessly makes Biden look like the demented fool that he has become. In fact, even without the debates Trump will make him look that way. It's too easy. Biden practically makes himself look like the demented fool because that is what he has become. Voters decide they prefer to be led by a sociopath than a demented fool. 20% of Sanders supporters do what they've done four years earlier and either don't vote at all or vote for trump. Trump wins.

The less likely scenario: Sanders puts up a good show during televised debates with Trump, but Trump, with massive assistance of most of the mainstream fake news media he so hates, paints him as a communist. Trump has never lost the support of 40-45% of the voters. Enough of the rest decide they prefer to be led by a sociopath than a communist. Trump wins.


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That has such people in't!


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Re: November 2020 election

#2  Postby Alan C » Mar 05, 2020 11:47 pm

Trevor Noah recently pointed out that in a debate, if Biden flubs something like a famous quote, that Tweetolini isn't likely to know given how massively ignorant he is.

I also think the proportion of Americans that have this weird hangup over socialism need to move on. Business as usual doesn't seem to be working for many people there, perhaps a 'revolution' is what is needed. Cov19 has surely put the healthcare issue into play in a big way.
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Re: November 2020 election

#3  Postby NineBerry » Mar 06, 2020 12:22 am

Cov19 from what I have heard might go dormant over the summer and then return causing real trouble just in time for the election in autumn.
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Re: November 2020 election

#4  Postby Macdoc » Mar 06, 2020 2:32 am

Don't forget about Warren ...a Sanders Warren ticket is a very real possibility right now and Warren being touted as both VP and Treasury Secretary. :cheers:

Warren and Sanders delegated combined are close enough to Biden and Californa is still counting. :popcorn:

Obama has a play in this as well.

4 million came to Washington and lined up to see the Obama portraits... :what:
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Re: November 2020 election

#5  Postby proudfootz » Mar 06, 2020 3:30 am

My sense is that the Dems will put up anyone but Sanders.

It will be a do-over of 2016.

If the Dems win they will kick the can down the road on the economy, climate disaster, regime change wars.

If they lose they will blame Sanders, Teh Russians, Susan Sarandon.

The Party can do no wrong.
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Re: November 2020 election

#6  Postby Hermit » Mar 06, 2020 7:23 am

proudfootz wrote:The Party can do no wrong.

Even when they axe Sanders during the Democratic National Convention in July, should he go there with the majority of the popular primary vote.
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Re: November 2020 election

#7  Postby WayOfTheDodo » Mar 30, 2020 9:26 am

Hermit wrote:So, come November it's either Biden or Sanders versus Trump.

The most likely scenario: Biden can't avoid televised debates with Trump. Trump effortlessly makes Biden look like the demented fool that he has become. In fact, even without the debates Trump will make him look that way. It's too easy. Biden practically makes himself look like the demented fool because that is what he has become. Voters decide they prefer to be led by a sociopath than a demented fool. 20% of Sanders supporters do what they've done four years earlier and either don't vote at all or vote for trump. Trump wins.

The less likely scenario: Sanders puts up a good show during televised debates with Trump, but Trump, with massive assistance of most of the mainstream fake news media he so hates, paints him as a communist. Trump has never lost the support of 40-45% of the voters. Enough of the rest decide they prefer to be led by a sociopath than a communist. Trump wins.


O, wonder!
How many goodly creatures are there here!
How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world,
That has such people in't!

I'm not sure the "Socialist! Communist!" smear is going to work that well against Bernie. Bernie has embraced the socialism label, and has turned it against the corporatists by pointing out the difference between Democratic Socialism and Corporate Socialism.

I mean, Biden isn't leading the primary right now because people think Sanders is a socialist. In fact, a majority of those polled in Texas(!) actually viewed socialism positively. Bernie's policies are also supported by a majority of Democratic voters (and independents).

And unlike Biden, who is running on "I'm so qualified and I alone can save the world" (his announcement video actually contained a segment where he talked about how world leaders were calling him and telling him he was the only one who could save the world), Bernie is running on policy. Biden is saying that "I'm the qualified guy who can bring politeness and normalcy back to the White House", while Sanders is saying that "the system is broken, and here's what I'm going to do about it".

It's really easy to attack someone running on character (remember the swiftboating of Kerry?). It's not so easy to attack someone running on policy. You think Trump is going to attack Bernie on trade deals? LOL. He can try attacking Bernie on healthcare, but this actually brings more attention to Bernie's healthcare policy, which is most likely a good thing.

And while Trump will be able to attack Biden during debates by hammering him on corruption and things like attacking and threatening a factory worker on the campaign trail, Bernie will easily be able to pivot to policy and simply talk about his policies that are mostly very popular to Americans (not just Democrats).

Bernie would likely beat Trump. Biden would almost certainly lose to Trump.
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Re: November 2020 election

#8  Postby Spearthrower » Mar 30, 2020 9:35 am

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html

RCP Average ... Biden +5.8


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6250.html

RCP Average ... Sanders +5.6


Polls still show, and have done so throughout, that either candidate can beat Trump.
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Re: November 2020 election

#9  Postby ronmcd » Mar 30, 2020 10:53 am

NineBerry wrote:Cov19 from what I have heard might go dormant over the summer and then return causing real trouble just in time for the election in autumn.

Imagine Trump vs Biden skype debates from self-isolation.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#10  Postby aban57 » Mar 30, 2020 4:00 pm

What about a ticket Biden/Sanders ?

I'm half serious here.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#11  Postby WayOfTheDodo » Mar 30, 2020 6:59 pm

aban57 wrote:What about a ticket Biden/Sanders ?

I'm half serious here.

Yes, if one of them was younger than 70. But running two very old people on the same ticket is very risky.

On the other hand, I'm not sure if there is some kind of process to pick a "vice vice president" or something?

But the issue here is that Biden and Bernie are basically two opposites. They would disagree on just about everything. So that could be a problem too. Of course, the president would have more of a say than the VP.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#12  Postby WayOfTheDodo » Mar 30, 2020 7:02 pm

Oh, and I just watched this video from The Hill. They are discussing various polls and comparing to Clinton at the same point in 2016, such as the one which shows that Biden supporters are not exactly enthusiastic (while Trump's are). They also point out how Trump's approval numbers are rising, and he has the advantage of being the incumbent.

They cover a lot more, and do so far more eloquently than I could, so I'd highly recommend people to watch it if you want some decent analysis of the current situation.

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Re: November USA 2020 election

#13  Postby Alan C » Mar 30, 2020 7:29 pm

I think Bernie nixed that, he didn't think having two old white guys would be a good look.

Better someone like Warren I'd say.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#14  Postby proudfootz » Mar 30, 2020 9:17 pm

Assuming Biden is the nominee they might just go for for someone to 'balance' the ticket, like Tim Kaine.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#15  Postby OlivierK » Mar 30, 2020 10:37 pm

Biden said he'd choose a woman. Kamala Harris is the current bookies favourite along with Amy Klobuchar and Stacey Abrams.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#16  Postby Spearthrower » Mar 30, 2020 10:56 pm

OlivierK wrote:Biden said he'd choose a woman. Kamala Harris is the current bookies favourite...


That is something I could appreciate; to resurrect an old phrase but now used in a much more positive light - she'd be one old man's heartbeat away from the Presidency.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#17  Postby WayOfTheDodo » Mar 31, 2020 10:53 am

OlivierK wrote:Biden said he'd choose a woman. Kamala Harris is the current bookies favourite along with Amy Klobuchar and Stacey Abrams.

Harris would be a terrible choice. She was barely able to attract any voters. She has a troubling background, and she likes to change her mind depending on what seems to benefit her at the time.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#18  Postby laklak » Mar 31, 2020 4:01 pm

WayOfTheDodo wrote: She has a troubling background, and she likes to change her mind depending on what seems to benefit her at the time.


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Re: November USA 2020 election

#19  Postby WayOfTheDodo » Mar 31, 2020 9:20 pm

Yes, other than Sanders, that seems to be the norm. Unfortunately.
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Re: November USA 2020 election

#20  Postby Macdoc » Mar 31, 2020 11:21 pm

Warren as VP and Treasury ....let the crooks tremble.

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