Snap UK General Election

June 8th 2017

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Re: Snap UK General Election

#541  Postby Scot Dutchy » May 27, 2017 4:48 pm

May does not need the lecture circuit as hubby provides more than enough dosh.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#542  Postby mrjonno » May 27, 2017 5:15 pm

May's not realized that the first job of the leader of the Conservative Party is to save it from its own members. o.


Now which other leader does that apply to?, lets think about this
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#543  Postby chairman bill » May 28, 2017 7:54 am

From the Torygraph

Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Labour narrows gap to six points as women voters surge towards Jeremy Corbyn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/27/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-labour-narrows-gap-six-points-women/

Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.

Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.

The Tories are on 44 per cent of the vote with Labour on 38. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.

It marks a dramatic tightening of the election race, with the Tories enjoying a 15-point lead over Labour at the beginning of the month.

Driving Labour’s comeback appears to be women voters, who have grown increasingly positive about Mr Corbyn’s party in recent weeks.

Just 31 per cent of women planned to vote Labour in mid-May but that figure has jumped to 40 per cent this week – just a single point behind the Tories. (cont.)
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#544  Postby OlivierK » May 28, 2017 9:49 am

For the sake of argument, if Labour were to do well enough to defy the Tories a majority, yet fall short of their own, what the fuck do they do next, given their abject dismissal of working with the SNP? Presumably they'd suck it up and form a minority government with unasked-for SNP after some backroom Queen's Speech horsetrading, but that would be pretty awkward.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#545  Postby chairman bill » May 28, 2017 10:03 am

I think Labour could manage as a minority government - there's enough common ground with SNP, SDLP, Plaid Cymru & Greens, not to mention the few LibDem MPs that will be left.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#546  Postby minininja » May 28, 2017 10:09 am

I don't see that it should be a problem. They could rule out any sort of coalition with other parties yet still count on support from SNP and others on a case by case basis. The SNP will never side with the Tories, yet the need for agreement between parties may lead to better politics, - more scrutiny, discussion, compromise, - and better policies as a result rather than the Yah-Boo vote it through politics that we normally have.
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#547  Postby Byron » May 28, 2017 10:24 am

chairman bill wrote:From the Torygraph

Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Labour narrows gap to six points as women voters surge towards Jeremy Corbyn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/27/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-labour-narrows-gap-six-points-women/

Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.

Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.

The Tories are on 44 per cent of the vote with Labour on 38. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.

It marks a dramatic tightening of the election race, with the Tories enjoying a 15-point lead over Labour at the beginning of the month.

Driving Labour’s comeback appears to be women voters, who have grown increasingly positive about Mr Corbyn’s party in recent weeks.

Just 31 per cent of women planned to vote Labour in mid-May but that figure has jumped to 40 per cent this week – just a single point behind the Tories. (cont.)

If Labour can keep the Tory majority south of 20, it'll be a triumph: May having failed by the terms she used to justify the election, Sub will be sinking with all hands. She could well resign before the men in grey suits are taken out the cupboard.

When the Brexit shitshow hits, with a majority that tiny, either the Tories have to rely on Labour votes for the EEA u-turn, or the headbangers scream no surrender, and collapse the government. Either way, with the Tories in open warfare, and the Blairite establishment scared off 'em, Labour could be primed for victory in a year or two.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#548  Postby Byron » May 28, 2017 10:29 am

minininja wrote:I don't see that it should be a problem. They could rule out any sort of coalition with other parties yet still count on support from SNP and others on a case by case basis. The SNP will never side with the Tories, yet the need for agreement between parties may lead to better politics, - more scrutiny, discussion, compromise, - and better policies as a result rather than the Yah-Boo vote it through politics that we normally have.

I'd assume the SNP would use a hung parliament to rapidly leverage EEA membership, home rule, and an entrenched Parliament of Scotland, bringing Scotland close to independence in all but name. That done, the constitutional question could be parked for a decade or so until the demographics have made iScotland a fait accompli, and much of the heat drawn from Scottish politics.

I expect iScotland will come a lot sooner, and a lot less amicably, but it's a nice thought.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#549  Postby ronmcd » May 28, 2017 10:36 am

You know you've messed up when *the Times* is accusing you of exploiting terrorism & misery for political gain.

Image
https://twitter.com/flying_rodent/statu ... 2140036096

(just to add, that was a quote I forgot the quote tags, I'm not taking credit for it, I'm not that witty)
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#550  Postby ronmcd » May 28, 2017 10:40 am

minininja wrote:The SNP will never side with the Tories...

and here in Scotland, our fake version of Labour are still trying to prevent SNP holding any power in local government, preferring .... the Tories.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#551  Postby Byron » May 28, 2017 10:46 am

ronmcd wrote:You know you've messed up when *the Times* is accusing you of exploiting terrorism & misery for political gain. [...]

I'm not at all convinced that the Manchester atrocity will be May's Falklands moment: it sounds like the cell's been torn open and most, if not all, of its members are in custody, taking down tensions; and there's way too many awkward questions about May's time as Home Secretary.

Many decent people with little time for Corbyn were disgusted at the Tories' lies about him in a shameless attempt to capitalize on the tragedy: even the Mail's comments ridiculed it.
I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#552  Postby chairman bill » May 29, 2017 3:29 pm

Former British Ambassador Craig Murray has this to say about May and Corbyn in relation to Brexit.
"Frankly, if I had the choice between sending in Jeremy Corbyn, with his politeness and reasonableness, or Theresa May, into a negotiation I would not hesitate for a second in choosing Corbyn. I am quite sure there is not another diplomat in the World who would make a different choice. May’s flakiness and intolerance of disagreement represent a disaster waiting to happen."
"All of which underlines a thought that has been pulling at me ever since the election started. May has continually tried to pitch this as a question of who you would wish to act as the negotiator of Brexit, either her or Jeremy Corbyn. But why would anybody believe that a woman who is not even capable to debate with her opponents would be a good negotiator?
In fact she would be an appalling negotiator. She becomes completely closed off when contradicted. She is incapable of thinking on her feet. She is undoubtedly the worst performer at Prime Minister’s Questions, either for government or opposition, since they were first broadcast. Why on earth would anybody think she would be a good negotiator? As soon as Michel Barnier made a point she was not expecting across the table, she would switch off and revert to cliché, and probably give off a great deal of hostility too.
The delusion she would negotiate well has been fed by the media employing all kinds of completely inappropriate metaphors for the Brexit negotiations. From metaphors of waging war to metaphors of playing poker, they all characterise the process as binary and aggressive.
In fact – and I speak as somebody who has undertaken very serious international negotiations, including of the UK maritime boundaries and as the Head of UK Delegation to the Sierra Leone Peace Talks – intenational negotiation is the opposite. It is a cooperative process and not a confrontational process. Almost all negotiations cover a range of points, and they work on the basis of you give a bit there, and I give a bit here. Each side has its bottom lines, subjects on which it cannot move at all or move but to a limited degree. Sometimes on a single subject two “bottom lines” can be in direct conflict. Across the whole range of thousands of subjects, you are trying to find a solution all can live with.
So empathy with your opposite number is a key requirement in a skilled negotiator, and everything I have ever seen about Theresa May marks her out as perhaps having less emotional intelligence than anybody I have ever observed. Bonhommie is also important. Genuine friendship can be a vital factor in reaching agreement, and it can happen in unexpected ways. But May has never been able to strike up friendships outside of a social circle limited to a very particular segment of English society, excluding the vast majority of the English, let alone Scots and heaven forfend continentals. The best negotiators have affability, or at least the ability to switch it on. It is a vital tool.
That is not to say occasionally you do not have to speak and stare hard to make plain that one of your bottom lines is real. But that is by no means the norm. And you need the intelligence and sharpness to carry it off, which May does not. That is one of the many differences between May and Thatcher.
Frankly, if I had the choice between sending in Jeremy Corbyn, with his politeness and reasonableness, or Theresa May, into a negotiation I would not hesitate for a second in choosing Corbyn. I am quite sure there is not another diplomat in the World who would make a different choice. May’s flakiness and intolerance of disagreement represent a disaster waiting to happen."
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#553  Postby Scot Dutchy » May 29, 2017 3:36 pm

But there is nothing to negotiate that is the problem thanks to May et al. If you think can insult an organisation while wishing its demise and the expect it to be chummy and give a special deal well sorry life is not like that. All you get is demands and threats ending up in a hard Brexit. Even Corbyn will not be able to change anything as the serious damage has happened.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#554  Postby Tzelemel » May 29, 2017 3:55 pm

chairman bill wrote:From the Torygraph

Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Labour narrows gap to six points as women voters surge towards Jeremy Corbyn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/27/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-labour-narrows-gap-six-points-women/

Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.

Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.

The Tories are on 44 per cent of the vote with Labour on 38. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.

It marks a dramatic tightening of the election race, with the Tories enjoying a 15-point lead over Labour at the beginning of the month.

Driving Labour’s comeback appears to be women voters, who have grown increasingly positive about Mr Corbyn’s party in recent weeks.

Just 31 per cent of women planned to vote Labour in mid-May but that figure has jumped to 40 per cent this week – just a single point behind the Tories. (cont.)


This sounds suspiciously like all that talk about women-voters supporting Hillary. There's going to be all this hype about Corbyn, and it'll fizzle out. In fact, all this hype might actually consolidate May's vote, and help push the electorate into voting for her.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#555  Postby Byron » May 29, 2017 9:03 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:But there is nothing to negotiate that is the problem thanks to May et al. If you think can insult an organisation while wishing its demise and the expect it to be chummy and give a special deal well sorry life is not like that. All you get is demands and threats ending up in a hard Brexit. Even Corbyn will not be able to change anything as the serious damage has happened.

Corbyn's likelier to fold and accept the EEA without too much stink (even an old Bennite like him isn't likely to bankrupt and dismember the UK in a fit of petulance). May could either u-turn again, or make some demented stand, backed up by the gleeful Maastricht bastards. Yes, the grey suits are mobilized at this point, but it'd be a near-run thing, and Brussels would doubtless extract extra tribute when it's done. Better it never comes to that.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#556  Postby Scot Dutchy » May 29, 2017 9:14 pm

I dont think EEA in any form will be offered. You must understand the damage May et al have done. Just look at Merkel's response to Trump and May is included. The UK is fucked side ways. No wonder so many ex-pats are applying for Dutch citizenship.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#557  Postby Byron » May 29, 2017 9:25 pm

Of course the EEA will be offered: the negotiating conditions even make allowance for the UK to change its mind and stay in the EU. The alternative to the EEA will either be a bilateral treaty that makes Switzerland's look stingy, a massive victory for Brexiters that could unravel the EU, or chaos at the ports for no better reason than spite.

Brussels are pragmatists. Seeing May hounded from office in disgrace, and the UK forced to accept the Four Freedoms, will be victory enough.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#558  Postby minininja » May 29, 2017 9:29 pm

chairman bill wrote:Former British Ambassador Craig Murray has this to say about May and Corbyn in relation to Brexit.
The delusion she would negotiate well has been fed by the media employing all kinds of completely inappropriate metaphors for the Brexit negotiations. From metaphors of waging war to metaphors of playing poker, they all characterise the process as binary and aggressive.

Yes there have been a few of these stupid analogies. The "not revealing your hand" one was basically a cover for their lack of a plan for Brexit. It makes no sense because negotiating an international agreement is not something you can just bluff your way through, only to reveal your true position at the end and somehow win.

A more recent one is the idea that "no deal is better than a bad deal". This is not a negotiation with a second-hand car dealer. Threatening to walk away is just bizarre. We can't simply walk down the road to get a better deal from the other EU there. No deal is the worst deal. May seams to be trying to set herself up to claim that the worst deal is what we really wanted all along and she's done a good job of getting it.
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#559  Postby mcgruff » May 29, 2017 9:31 pm

I'm starting to wonder if maybe the tories want to lose the election.
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Re: Snap UK General Election

#560  Postby Byron » May 29, 2017 9:33 pm

Actually walking away with no deal would lead to immediate dissolution of the union (probably including Northern Ireland, possibly even Wales), and economic scorched earth. I can't see any circumstance in which it'd be possible: the UK's in the EU at least until 2019, so even if May tried to do it, she'd be out of office within days, likely hours, and it'd just be cancelled; if by some miracle she's still there in 2019, and Brussels run down the clock, she either caves, or is replaced by someone who will.

Brussels know it's an empty threat. Bet even May knows it's an empty threat. Empty threats are worth all the substance they have.
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